Adam Kirk
@DGBetting_
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predicting the future | hungry and foolish | formerly innovation @ bloomberg | now founder @ vincerix | @vincerix_hoops | @vincerix_golf
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Some fun announcements and then a great deep dive into Wells Fargo, Myrtle Beach, and Brooks PGA with the hot hand of
@matt_gannon_
for
@vincerix_golf
Links in thread.
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“Put Tiger tied for 1st”
“But he’s 3rd?”
“Put him tied for 1st!!”
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46
1K
With Louis Oosthuizen's love of tractors I guess we shouldn't be surprised he can design sick golf courses. His first course - La Reserve Links - in Mauritius just opened and is hosting the DPWT this week. Looks spectacular.
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Nothing says pro-am more than Pat lining up a putt for the lead while the CEO of Silver Lake takes full rips with the driver on the apron.
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Xander really tied the lead and then proceeded to hit two straight drives directly into trees that went 213 yards and 163 yards. So sick.
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From this moment JT would lose 5 holes on the back nine and the match to Si Woo Kim.
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No timeline given but Sports Business Journal reporting that the Tour is working on every shot from every tournament on ESPN+. That would be a game changer.
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Lucas Glover shot an opening 63 to lead in an 11 spot US Open qualifier and then missed this putt to lose out on the final spot in a playoff. Tough scene.
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Me: the guys who mixed at Augusta will be tired and disinterested
The guys who mixed at Augusta:
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Take care of it. Highest correlated stat since 2008 for Champs: Turnover %
Avg 51st. The worst in the stretch ‘14 UCONN ranking 103rd.
Turnover % rank for top seeds:
Bama 241
Houston 27
Purdue 89
KU 127
Zona 203
Texas 65
UCLA 26
Marq 23
Zags 11
Baylor 170
KSU 299
Xavier 129
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HUDSON SWAFFORD WINS THE AMERICAN EXPRESS AT 250/1!!!
ON THE SAME DAY WE CASH IN ABU DHABI!! UNBELIEVABLE!!
HARD WORK PAYS OFF!
💳 Amex:
Big card, same 4u to net 28u allocation.
Power 33
Zalatoris 50
Rose 60
Vegas 80
Ortiz 80
List 80
Glover 130
Buckley 160
Riley 200
Swafford 250
Top 20s, Top 40s and our match up play as we look to continue a five event unbeaten match up run ->
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Only one solution, make this a hole.
Travelers says changes are coming to TPC River Highlands after complaints over low scores -
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Previous major finish for the last eight US Open winners:
T5
T8
T4
T8
T13
T11
T4
W
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Pebble Winner Profiles:
A week for wedges. Last 7 winners in Top 12 for Birdie or Better % inside 125 yards on the wk. Pebble history HUGELY predictive. Every winner since 2000 has a previous Top 21 at Pebble, and avg best previous finish is 7th. As straightforward as it gets.
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Dunlap now must decide whether he wants to play the Linger Longer Invitational or the Players on the weekend of March 16th.
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This Jake Knapp ball striking performance is going to have him on people’s betting cards for the next 20 years.
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@kclairerogers
My highlight of the week was:
A: “Bro that’s Brooks, look”
B: “really I thought he was bigger”
A: “no bro that’s him, that’s how he stands”
B: “oh wait yeah that’s him”
It was Denny McCarthy.
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A list of things I can currently watch:
Stage 4 of Major League Fishing
Polo (the one with the horses)
Charleston Open Tennis
Men’s college lacrosse
Women’s college lacrosse
High School basketball
College softball
Things I can’t currently watch:
3rd round of the Masters
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Can we watch the
#1
college player, fresh on Tour and tied for the lead?
PGA Tour: No, but you can watch Ted Potter Jr playing like a 12 handicap.
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Opens computer to start API research.
Instantly sees Rahm gained 12 strokes ball striking on debut last year at Bay Hill.
Closes computer.
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FWIW Brooks is eating this course alive so far.
Brooks Koepka has played a tournament the week before all five of his major wins. Taking an alternative approach for LACC.
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Waste Management Winner Profiles:
A consistent trend of top level ball strikers winning it. Must be really solid in proximity from 150-200 yards. Not really a week for long shots. Cream rises to the top here due to the ball striking prerequisite.
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If the ratings aren’t great for this then golf is screwed because this is as good as it gets.
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Gotta assume that having a six shot lead with nine to go and shooting -2 on the back gives you a 99.999999% chance to win
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Ultimately the Tour couldn’t beat the Saudi money. But the Saudi’s couldn’t beat the Tour’s product.
So now the Saudi’s are the money and the Tour is the product.
A logical conclusion but required a lot of brinksmanship for both parties to come to that realization.
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Limiting myself to just one tweet about Azinger for the whole year. But here it is.
It’s already a joke that he’s the lead analyst for four of the game’s six most prestigious events.
And commenting that Akshay is “the tannest player on tour by a mile” should be the last straw.
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TOM KIM WINS THE WYNDHAM!
A star has arrived.
And definitely sweet redemption for us after last year.
The Vincerix model delivers again - this time at 40/1. A 6th winner for the model & a weekly $100 play in 2022 on the model
#1
now sits on $9,000 of profit. Crazy.
Wyndham Championship model and winner profiles are live --> .
Not that often a 40/1 shot tops the model, but that's where things ended up even after manually ranking him worse than he probably should be in multiple categories.
Interesting.
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🏆 MAX HOMA WINS THE FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN!!
An all-time community win. Congrats to all of the backers. Happy to cash another one on Max and glad I didn't overthink an obvious one for once. Go crazy Golf Twitter!
🌤️ Farmers Open Preview & Picks -->
A handful of great players and a lot of not so great players make up the field at a wet, long, and potentially windy Torrey Pines.
And if somehow you don't know by now, the event starts tomorrow.
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Apparently I started this account exactly one year ago. 6k followers is 5,999 more than I ever would have imagined. Appreciate it greatly, and hopefully just the start.
Drink on me at Travelers this weekend if you say hello. Supply is very dependent on how our bets are trending.
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That’s a wrap from THE Country Club.
Remember… “We’re talking about practice.” Hope folks win some cash no matter who you bet on but most importantly hope people enjoy this event because it should be about as good as we’re gonna get this year.
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Patrick Cantlay's position on the leaderboard after every round since the opening round at the BMW:
5, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 11, 9, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 4, 3.
Not bad.
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ADAM SVENSSON WINS THE RSM CLASSIC AT 150/1!!
Mito, Young, and Svensson all won twice on the KFT in 2021 but it's the talented 🇨🇦 who lifts a Tour title first.
Back-to-back winners on the PGA Tour and 5 outright winners in the last 11 events between the DP and PGA. LFG!
🇺🇸 RSM Classic
Hoge 30
Hughes 50
Rai 55
Todd 60
Knox 100
Long 150
Svensson 150
Hadley 190
🇦🇪 DP Tour Championship
Lowry 14
Smith 29
Otaegui 100
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Sam Burns made 23 birdies this week and finished at -6. That’s hard to do.
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Not a doctor. No inside info. He could WD before you read this tweet. But if Spieth is seriously injured it’s not showing at all in his performance on the back nine at Oak Hill right now.
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🇺🇸US Open Card -
Zal 35
Finau 35
Young 50
Brooks 55
Im 60
Mito 80
Fox 300
I’ve seen enough and this is what we’re going with. 5 of the Top 8 T2G last 20 rounds with elite upside OTT. Going more bullets and avoiding the top of the board. 4u to net 28u per usual. Best of luck!
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Tony Finau in majors: meh
Tony Finau in big events: meh
Tony Finau in events with a +300 favorite: Tiger Woods
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Honda Winner Profiles -
Last four winners have led the field T2G. That's rare and speaks to the challenge of PGA National. Most difficult Approach course on Tour. Edge to those with power.
Of interest - defending champ Matt Jones currently 2nd T2G at Riv behind Niemann.
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🏆🤠 SAM BURNS WINS THE WGC MATCH PLAY!
Our normal strategy of betting Sam over 20/1 has been on hold waiting for the right spot to hop back on. Glad it worked out. Really impressive closing effort this afternoon with eight birdies over his final 10 holes.
Will miss this event!
🤠 WGC Match Play Preview, Selections, and Bracket:
Seems like I might be in the minority, but this is one of my favorite events to bet all year.
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🚨 MASTERS PROFILES:
Some of the best correlations of the year come at Augusta. Recent major form > Masters form. Par 5 Scoring and Birdie/Bogey trends very important. Winners do "peak" for Augusta with 70%+ increases in SG PUTT & SG ARG in the 10 rounds leading into the event.
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Tournament page is live for the WM Phoenix Open where they'll try a novel concept of playing one golf course and ending the tournament on a Sunday --> .
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150th Open Card & Preview:
Last month I slept on the ground, and then played the Old Course. I walked off certain we'd see 59s this week. The story of that day, and how fast conditions have altered that thinking --> .
All outright bets are in the article.
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@TheMasters
Call me crazy, but watching the best player on the planet play all 18 holes at Augusta would be pretty compelling.
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2022 PLAYERS Championship Preview:
Fresh off Scottie winning as our model
#1
at the API we crunch the numbers again and look to TPC Sawgrass.
How has the shift to March altered the event, and what does that mean for our handicapping endeavors this week?
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MAX HOMA WINS THE WELLS FARGO!
After putting 8 guys in the Top 3 over the last 7 events we finally grab the top spot. First ever time claiming the 🥇and 🥈. Awesome week.
Appreciate all the positive vibes during all the close calls. Let's go!
Wells Fargo Card & Preview:
Conners 20
Bradley 35
Homa 45
NeSmith 100
Glover 125
Laird 130
Finished the card early. Full preview is below. Can't promise a winner, but I can say this is the most straightforward course I've ever handicapped. Best of luck!
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Congrats to the Spaun backers! The model continues to run way hotter than my brain at least with Spaun checking in at
#19
this week for another highly ranked winner. I’m done betting guys outside the top 25 of the model. Masters model will be live tomorrow afternoon. Lets go!
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🌺 MASTERS Preview -->
Anyone who follows me knows how much I love the numbers and trends, but I think we're headed into a uniquely unpredictable Masters. Thoughts on that and a bunch of different players. Picks will be out tomorrow.
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From outside 100 yards so far this week Kevin Kisner has hit 6 of 19 greens with a closest approach of 28’ 2”.
Bookmarking just in case anyone tries to convince you that he should be on the team in Rome.
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3-time PGA Tour winner Max Homa on No Laying Up this week: "Winning golf tournaments is random".
All of us every week: "Let me tell you who is gonna win this weeks golf tournament..."
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Since 2014, only 25% of Final Four teams entered the tournament in the top 150 in the country in adjusted tempo.
Only two were top 50.
The fastest champ over that period was 2017 UNC - 54th.
Seeing a lot of Alabama brackets.
Their adjusted tempo rank?
4th
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A list of some golfers you might want to bet at Augusta who have not beaten Scottie Scheffler in any tournament this year:
Rory
Vik
Collin
Max
Fitz
Russ
Tommy
Conners
Lowry
Harman
Scott
Tom Kim
Finau
Min Woo
Sungjae
Keegan
Cam Young
Si Woo
Rose
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🇺🇸Day One US Open Preview:
We spent Monday exploring The Country Club where a clear path to victory quickly presented itself with one Scottie Scheffler swing on the 3rd.
Maybe the most fun I've ever had writing something -->
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Just grabbed a PGA Championship future on Talor Gooch at 200/1 on PointsBet. Should be another firm and fast test in his home state of Oklahoma.
200/1 is comically mispriced. Currently same price as Martin Kaymer, Padraig Harrington and JT Poston to name a few.
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Memorial:
Xander 22
Lowry 25
Young 40
Mito 50
Model is live here ->
Pretty straightforward this week - be in excellent form in every single way. So we'll roll with 4 of the top 9 in SG Total over the last 20 rounds. First PGA win for Hideki here in '14.
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🚨Day 3 US Open Thread:
Alright change of plans here, folks. Not gonna have time to finish up a write up rn because this is a ludicrous practice group and we need eyes on it.
All thoughts for today will be here and card will be out late afternoon after watching Mito/Joaquin.
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Homa is 4th SG Total last 20 rounds with two wins on the season.
14th on the odds board.
Getting zero respect due to the poor major record. But was improved last year and has spoken about his mental work. The biggest misprice on the board IMO.
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🏴 Scottish:
Cantlay 25
Burns 31
Homa 60
Young 60
Mitchell 90
Clark 200
Arnaus 200
Been looking forward to these couple of weeks after visiting Scotland in May.
On the non-links of Renaissance, DP Tour misprices, wind, distance, and plenty more -->
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FedEx St Jude model is live here -->
Very, very strong correlations. Main goal in this situation is to not overthink it.
Also if you've made $$$ off the model this year (or if you do this week) sending any donation you can to St Jude's would be awesome.
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PGA Championship model is live -->
For reference... rank in the model for the winner at the highest strength of field events so far this year:
Players - 3rd
Masters - 6th
WGC - 4th
Genesis - 18th
API - 1st
Sentry - 8th
PHX - 17th
Farmers - 11th
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Travelers Card:
Spieth 26
Im 35
Niemann 35
Finau 40
Si Woo 100
Tough week. Leaning on a set of comp courses that have resulted in 118 Top 10s and 18 Ws for the last seven champs at TPC River Highlands -->
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2022 Genesis Invitational Preview:
The key stat shared by the previous 16 winners at Riviera, and the player we're betting this week that has won every time we've ever played them. -->
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Sentry ToC Preview & Picks:
A look at key stats and notes on every player in the model's Top 20. Hoping to ride a bit of momentum from outright Ws at the Houston Open and RSM, but many great options make it a challenging event to handicap. Best of luck!
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Proven short game results at Sawgrass are crucial.
Best strokes gained PUTT | ARG performance at the Players prior to winning:
Cam: +6.2 | +4.2
JT: +5.9 | +4.6
Rory: +4.7 | +5.0
Webb: +3.4 | +2.1
Si Woo: +1.9 | +3.1
Day: +4.8 | +4.7
Rick: +5.9 | +3.0
Kaymer: +3.3 | +1.7
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Valspar Winner Profiles:
Some of the highest correlations of the year - great news for handicapping. A clear long iron test. Excellent approach play from 175+ yards is definite key to success. Winners have history of balanced driving. Tough week for long shots.
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Models are live for Pebble and Ras al Khaimah -->
Random note but 2,500 unique visitors came to the site last January when I started Vincerix. 15,000+ came this January. Crazy, and very much appreciate y'all.
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I’d like to see a special rule where if an amateur wins a Tour event then nobody in the field gets paid out for the week.
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🚨🚨🚨 Extremely rare use of the triple siren. But, it feels necessary. If you've ever gotten any benefit out of the site, I'd greatly appreciate if you could please read the following -->
And, Wells Fargo model is live.
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And we're off. Sentry ToC Model is live: .
Review of the outright model strategy (i.e. just bet Model
#1
) from 2022 in pic. Was highly successful as a $100 weekly bettor ended the year with $10,900 in profit. Literally ZERO guarantee of future results.
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@BrianKirschner_
None of my guys have been showing up as “1” on the leaderboard. Please fix. Thanks.
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Tony Finau through 36 holes:
Tee to Green - 1st
Putting - 2nd......... to last.
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Model is live for the 🌺 MASTERS
Made some pretty big adjustments compared to last year (hopefully for the better) but for reference last year's model ranks for the Top 3 finishers:
Scottie 6th
Rory 4th
Cam 7th
Lowry 20th
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@JonRothstein
McCasland is going to be one of the best coaches in the country if he isn’t already.
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🍑 Masters Preview:
First there will be a Par 3 contest at Augusta. Then there will be a Par 5 contest.
Diving in on the numbers that matter most this week while also reminding ourselves we may know a lot less about this event than we think we do -->
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🏝️ PLAYERS Preview & Picks:
Over the last four renditions at Sawgrass we've seen two winners lead the field T2G, and two lead the field in putting. Taking a look at what it all means.
Best of luck!
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Players ✅
Masters ✅
Scottie off to a historic start this year and with a path to doing something all-time special. No one on the Tour can touch him and the major champs on LIV are getting sub optimal reps. A true sky is the limit situation.
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I run the only bakery in town. But a person with unlimited $$ opens a bakery. Their recipes sucks and my recipes rock. But they’re driving up prices for my ingredients. So we agree on a new bakery using their unlimited money and my recipes. Call it what you want, we’ve merged.
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8” rough and the greens turning white by Friday afternoon at Bay Hill or we riot.
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🚘 Honda Classic Picks & Preview:
This course is really hard, and most of these golfers aren't great. So, yeah. Here's a guess at what happens.
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🌴Sony Preview & Picks ->
Different than our normal preview but one of my favs. Sometimes we don't know what to decide and that's fine. That was me this week and here's my thoughts on where we ended up. Hopefully it can help you this week & in the future.
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Fun news - starting PGA week I’ll be committing to building Vincerix full time. Due to that, content will be a bit later than usual this wk as I close things out at my “real job.”
I’ve always worked in data related start ups and having a chance to try and build one in… (1/2)
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What a day for us lefties. Out of respect, all rubber tees and ball trays should be kept on the left side of range mats nationwide this week.
Akshay Bhatia wins the Barracuda Championship, his first career PGA Tour win.
This is the first time in PGA Tour history that two left-handed players won on the same day.
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2K
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TONY FINAU WINS THE HOUSTON OPEN! 🤠
Such solid play from Big Tone. He's really displaying the full potential now.
Vincerix model win
#8
across 42 modeled TOUR events in '22. A weekly $100 bet on the model's
#1
player now sits on $11,050 of profit YTD. Two events remaining.
🇺🇸Houston Open:
Wise 18
Finau 22
Burmester 91
D Thompson 100
Woodland 130
And our hopes of four straight winners on the DP World Tour 🇿🇦 are in the following hands:
Smith 14
Rozner 31
Horsfield 50
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PGA Card & Preview:
Morikawa 21
Cantlay 28 (future)
Hideki 28
Mito 175
Gooch 200 (future)
Na 200 (future)
Why course history at varying PGA venues is actually a compelling guide for what's in store at Southern Hills -->
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SAM BURNS WINS THE CHARLES SCHWAB!!!
After last week’s pain we sweep the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour for the 2nd time this year to bounce back! And it’s our guy Sam Burns who does the trick!
I may never come back from Scotland. Let’s gooooo!
Schwab:
Vik 22
Burns 30
Fleetwood 40
Harman 65
Poulter 130
Donald 400
Model is live here ->
Winner profiles are pictured. Strong correlations. I'm on vacation so these picks were made with minimal effort so no promises (not that there ever are). Cheers!
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Byron Nelson Card & Preview:
Burns 22
Vegas 55
Hadwin 55
McNealy 65
Mitchell 75
Munoz 100
Smotherman 250
Swafford 280
It's Burns and the long shots this week, same 4u to net 28u as always. Our full preview with a look at some key comp courses -->
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If you’ve ever wondered what a single drive that gains +1.6 strokes looks like, here you go from Gotterup. Quite the weapon to possess to dig yourself out of a hole.
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🌤️ Farmers Insurance Open:
Burns 25
Im 32
Leish 37
Gooch 55
Wise 80
I'll tweet placements later today.
All you need to know about Torrey, and a quick look at some handicapping fundamentals that helped us hit a crazy double last week -->
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Travelers Championship Profiles -
Model is live here --> .
Likely a top of the board week with an avg SG Total of 1.2 strokes per rd over the last 50 rds for recent winners here. Pretty solid correlations minus 2018 Bubba who is the ultimate course horse.
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@TheTennisLetter
“Hi Novak, you haven’t lost on centre court in a decade and if you lose we’re going to write all caps headlines about what a massive upset it is, but can you please say you’re the favorite so we can generate some click bait before for the match. Thank you.”
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Apparently Lucas Glover is going to win back to back events! Nice to finally have a playoff winner after three playoff losses the last couple months.
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🚨US Open model is live --> .
A quick reminder below on how things went at the PGA. Working on a write up that will be posted first thing tomorrow with all the takeaways from the course today, how that impacted the model, and how I expect things to play.
Despite the Mito heartbreak another very successful week at the PGA for the model:
JT ranked 1st
Will 8th
Mito 9th
Young 23rd
Kirk 17th
Fitz 16th
✈️ to 🏴 today so content will be a bit spotty next two weeks. Have a great Monday everyone!
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The current top 5 -
Lahiri: biggest W the Malaysian Open
Casey: perennial failure
Burns: took 5 chips greenside last time in contention
Munoz: dead shank on 1 last time holding the 54 hole lead
Ghim: shot 78 in the final round last year
This should be phenomenal viewing.
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@Daniel_Rapaport
Pretty sure even my grandma is aware that Jon Rahm has a great chance to win this week.
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Schwab:
Vik 22
Burns 30
Fleetwood 40
Harman 65
Poulter 130
Donald 400
Model is live here ->
Winner profiles are pictured. Strong correlations. I'm on vacation so these picks were made with minimal effort so no promises (not that there ever are). Cheers!
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