Martin North
@DFA_Analyst
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Finance Sector Analyst and Principal Digital Finance Analytics
Sydney Australia
Joined December 2013
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1) This morning at 5:30am my beloved wife of 27 years Gill died from Mesothelioma. Its caused by Asbestos - one of ~4,000 who die each year from this cursed product in OZ. She devoted her last days to telling the Asbestos story and was excited to see the recent media coverage.
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While keeping social distance, I attended 3 auctions today - not one purchaser showed up. The auctioneers went off, tail between legs. People, the property crash has commenced, if this is reflective of other areas.
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So RBA is trialing a Central Bank Digital Currency, as APRA works the with Banks to ensure they can handle negative interest rates. These new "tools" will offer greater control over our spending patterns and should concern us all. Are we sleeping walking into central control?
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So 50k (or 40%) of super to be used to help buy a house, and then when you sell you can put the 50k back plus gains into super. Yet another scheme to try to prop the market up.... latest "great" idea from Scomo....
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This week had chats with 5 renters, all of whom were served with a rent increase notice of 19%+ AND a notice to quit if they did not roll over. Many in QLD specifically. Housing is broken.
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QUESTION: Why is it that housing availability and affordability is hardly being discussed in the main stream political campaigns? A few nods here and there, but to me, alongside Climate, this should be right up there in terms of policy, and choices! Come on journo's do your job!
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Suspect we are close to a Lehmans moment..... next few days will be interesting as liquidity is crashing.... yet with high inflation, they cannot cut rates.
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Luna and Meteor arrive safely in Bath after a week away from me. Thanks to Jet Pets for their hard work! Wonder if their Aussie barks will be understood by the locals? Some very traveled dogs... 🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕
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We need assurance that i) cash will be safeguarded as a continuing medium of payment, without control and ii) that no social scores will be in any way associated with CBDC and anonymity is guaranteed. If not, 1984 here we come...
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Lots of reaction to the RBA FOI showing their panic internally compared with the public face on home price falls. But people, remember the RBA created this monster with poor policy, low rates, assisted by poor regulation from APRA and ASIC. They are responsible for the Bubble!📉
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ABS released new weights for CPI - with a fall in housing due to... wait for it - lower rents and electricity! Am I living in the same country???? Numberwang rules again!
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Signs of the time. Today, four stand alone house auctions scheduled in my area, two were cancelled, one had no shows, and one failed to meet reserve (despite a couple of bidders carefully bidding below the reserve - me suspicious - never). How good is the Real Estate market now?
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Auction fails? Did the rounds this morning of a few local auctions. Not one from the 6 I dropped into was sold. This is a massive shift from just a few weeks back. I reckon a seismic shift has started if this is replicated across other areas. Material for our rant
@justthink1
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10k! Thanks to all those following my posts on Twitter, greatly appreciated. More insights coming soon. 👌👌👌
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We just crossed 39,000 subscribers on our YouTube channel. 💻🖥️📺Many thanks to all those who subscribe and support our work, its greatly appreciated. Next target is 40k, and hopefully 50k before the end of the year!!!
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Auction Crickets! In my travels today I attended 6 house auctions, three were cancelled beforehand, two had no bidders at all, and one had one bidder but no sale. If this is replicated more broadly I think we can say that property in the Illawarra has just taken a new turn.
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To keep house prices high i) RBA does mega TFF2, ii) Buys distressed mortgages from banks iii) Banks extend mortgage term/repayment holidays (like COVID), iv) More Gov "bribes" to new buyers v) lift migration vi) Get MSM to talk the market up... simple 😃 We are different, honest
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Still running in the garden half a world away from last time.
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In the past 72 hours I had a bunch of mortgage holders ask me about where mortgage rates are headed. Seems like there is a lot of nervous people out there sitting on big debt... knowing even small rises will be difficult. Hope they did their own cash flows and have wiggle room.
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QUESTION: Post election, how long before the migration taps are open full in the quest for growth? It's already happening in New Zealand. Just remember GDP per capita is NOT the same as gross GDP. Focus should be on productivity, not just more people.
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BREAKING NEWS: Mortgage and Rental Stress (defined in cash flow terms) reaches new highs based on our surveys to end May 2024. Full report to follow in a couple of days. This is a real mess for many households! With strong rent growth and high mortgage rates this will not end
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Just a week ago Gill gave her last interview to A Current Affair on C9. This segment should be aired tonight. Gill was so grateful to be able to tell her story and warn others of the asbestos threat. She died just 2 days later.
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Flash Report. Mortgage Stress end September at record high in cash flow terms via the DFA survey and model. "It's stress Jim, but not as we know it..."!!
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This from Westpac today says it all really... despite all the Gov. stimulus and support.
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Did a quick turn on the Today show this morning talking about parallels with the US, Ireland and New Zealand, as mortgage rates rise and home prices slide.
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ABC spoke to my wife Gill, about her asbestos disease for The Drum. Her powerful plea is on YouTube. Pity they could not spell her name correctly - Professor Gill North... Please share. More at Asbestos Awareness Australia /
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True quote from a conversation today. "When we bought last year, we went variable rate mortgage as RBA said nothing till 2024 - now 6 months later we are potentially facing rises which could wipe us out - who to blame?" We did cash flows, but nothing close... (with permission)
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So many engaged and helped to get this result - democracy works provided people engage.... now to deposit bail-in...
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Just spent an excellent afternoon with Steve Keen
@ProfSteveKeen
, recording some material for our upcoming shows, and sharing data too. Good to see him face2face in OZ (and his mum too!)
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Property Insider tip from
@justthink1
one of the majors is about to stop Mum and Dad guarantors for First Time Buyers. ☠️☠️☠️ Another nail in the coffin?
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FLASH REPORT. DFA data shows further rise in both mortgage and rental stress to more new highs in October 2023. Rental stress 72.07% of renters, mortgage stress 50.2% of borrowers. Shocking.
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Here is the latest on Gill's death and the campaign for Asbestos Awareness. A shout out to Peter Vincent writing for the Daily Mail, as he has really captured the imperative here confronting though it is.
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Luna and Meteor head off for their big UK adventure... already missing them🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕
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@AvidCommentator
Privatization of critical infrastructure, and the leakage of profit offshore is a disaster driven by ideology over providing service to households and businesses.
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I am grateful and overwhelmed by the literally 1,000's of messages of condolence and support from this amazing community. More troubling is the number of reports of other deaths from asbestos exposure. to add names (or anon) to the memorial.
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Just recorded an interview with Peter Schiff. Will be up on my channel soon. A must watch!
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More to come too? "The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary". .. Only temporary though....???
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2) In her memory we launched a new website which features her research. AAA is a registered charity, founded by Gill to warn people of the risks. One third of property in OZ contains this product which kills over a life-time from one exposure.
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Responsible lending changes have been postponed until May due to lack of Senate support, I have been advised.... Maybe sense is dawning.... or maybe there will be more horse trading. But for now, consumers win.
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Something weird in the latest DFA surveys - a spike in the number of multi-family occupations as people move back into parents homes, or older Australians move in with their children. Jumped end March. Anyone else seeing evidence of this - might a a really significant shift?
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Put these two statements together - Bill Evans WBC Economist “Substantial falls ahead for house prices” and NAB's "High-Risk clients to sell homes soon".
This is main street speak for "If you are going to panic, panic first" as
@LocantroTony
would say. The game sir, is up!
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Guess which of the Big Four has announced this? Borrowing power upped by ~8% by changing their rental shading? Must keep the ponzi going....
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Just recorded an epic show with Professor Steve Keen. Will be up on DFA soon.
@ProfSteveKeen
Thanks Steve!
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Latest Home Price Scenarios after latest bond price moves, at aggregate level. Getting scary... if rates rise as markets suggest.
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Just recorded a new show with
@MetreSteven
on the inflation "fairy tale", to be published later today. Perfect timing given the current bond markets....
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FLASH REPORT: Household rental and mortgage stress from our surveys to end August shows the mounting pressure on households across Australia. Tenants are under the most severe pressure ever!
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The property industry just lost its compass! Watch for the DFA show where
@justthink1
and I discuss... Recording later today...
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At its meeting, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.35 per cent.
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 50 basis points to 2.35 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 50 basis points to 2.25 per cent.
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Just recorded a show with George Gammon,
@GeorgeGammon
covering financial repression, inflation, and who is driving the agenda. Will be up on DFA shortly. This is one you must not miss!
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3) She wanted her legacy to be no more unnecessary deaths, plus legal and political change to remove the risk from future generations. We will treasure you memory Gill, and continue your work....
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You might want to check out ABC 7:30 tonight, as I believe one story will include some of my data 😀
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Gold, Inflation Vs Deflation? - Just recorded a DFA show with Peter Schiff. Will be posted later today! Its a must see...
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Meteor And Luna singing in the New Year and out the old (all the right notes not necessarily in the right order. Happy New Year folks.
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The Bank of England will carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK government bonds from 28 September. The purpose of these purchases will be to restore orderly market conditions. What???
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Just recorded a discussion with Tony Locantro,
@LocantroTony
about the current trajectory of the economy, and the ensuing social implications. What will the future hold? Show coming soon.
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Just recorded an important show with US Economist and Author of Killing the Host and “and forgive them their debts,” - Michael Hudson; called "Debt and Power". Will be released shortly. This will be a MUST WATCH!!
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My first holiday in more than 8 years... great autumn sunshine in Sidmouth (UK).
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Just recorded a show with Tony Locantro
@LocantroTony
discussing the psychology of a bubble and the damage done as it deflates. He was on his long run tonight! Keep an eye out for the show, coming soon!! Thanks again Tony.
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Once again
@AvidCommentator
slide show has done well, TB is getting quite a following, and well deserved!
Congrats!!
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@adamseconomics
@ABCaustralia
73% is a clear endorsement of the DFA Adams collaboration. So we should continue. Especially in the current environment. We will not agree on everything. We should be open about this. But perhaps a more nuanced Twitter strategy would be beneficial.
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@TheKouk
I vote for freedom, not control. If that looks tin-hat-ish then so be it. Just remember the parable of the frog in the pan of boiling water. Didn't get it till too late. Just saying...
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Just ran the DFA modelling for July 2022. We saw a shocking rise in rental stress (to 50.48%) and a rise in mortgage stress too, on a cash-flow basis. Higher interest rates and living costs not being offset by income. Trouble ahead? Big spike in BNPL and other bridging debt.
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UK removed the 3% mortgage buffer test today, though still maintains LTI limits. How long before APRA removes their buffers on mortgage affordability?
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One smaller rate hike does not a pivot make... "The size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market".
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Congratulation to
@Ben_McEvoyAUS
his show on property bubbles passed 10k in under 24 hours. And people are watching to the end = great job Ben. Lets look at Behavioral Finance in more detail next time. 😀😀😀
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Mortgage Stress Spikes Higher In June. Using our cash-flow analysis from DFA surveys, more households with mortgages have financial flow stress issues than ever before! Debit to income ratios are higher too says RBA.
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How to solve the Covid Zero policy problem. First get the WHO to declare the pandemic over. Second, rebrand any new infections a mild non-lethal different disease. Third declare Covid Zero complete, and a success. Fourth Reopen. Sources are suggesting this strategy is in play.
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Interest Rate Sensitivity: How Many More Australian Households Fall Into Stress If Rates Were To Rise? The Answer Is Not Pretty..
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Just recorded an epic show with
@AvidCommentator
will be up later today... his slides were .... excellent. A must watch!
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 2.85 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent.
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"Asbestos tells you everything you need to know about the reality of our economic system, what it values and what it fails to protect. It teaches about the collusion between government and industry. It addresses the issue of so-called “junk science” and control of information"
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50% of households believe property values double every 7 years according to our surveys - though never let facts get in the way of a good story as this data from a prime WA post code reveals.
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More on the Asbestos Story:
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The terminal dilemma: fight inflation and suffer market collapse and economic depression with millions laid off, or push to stabilize social order and employment with higher asset prices, runaway (hyper)inflation be damned. From Zerohedge.
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EOFY view from the markets says RBA cash rate will be higher in Nov 2024 than today, with a peak at 4.5% mid next year. Who said no rate rises til 2024????
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OBSERVATION: The typical "Borrowing Power" for a theoretical household applying for a big four bank mortgage has reduced by around 15% compared with November 2021. Another reason to expect home prices to fall and credit growth to reverse.
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Owner Occupied Mortgage Stress For Greater Sydney to June 2020. Orange and red = high stress - it's spreading....💣💣💣
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Latest on Gill's death from Peter Vincent at the Daily Mail.
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Congrats
@AvidCommentator
our latest show is rating well - and people are watching it for longer - must be the slides... Home truths for those willing to listen...
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@adamseconomics
Over the weekend, check out my WalkTheWorld channel where I will be explaining all. Still keeping firm connections with OZ, and will be running our analysis and shows - while I start parallel household and business survey activity in the UK. And IOTP ain't dead either...
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@IndusTrainCons
My spies tell me its easier to get a 95% LVR loan now than a few weeks back, at some lenders. They are still pushing loans as hard as they can, despite the risks...
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ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate now pointing towards rate falls later in the year, but I am not convinced...
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