Stephen Koukoulas
@TheKouk
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Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD, Advisor to PM, punter. Speaker at Ode Management - https://t.co/dXJoiRJt1z MD Market Economics; Also https://t.co/kxt2ibOgfj
Joined May 2009
My 2025 calls:.GDP H1 1.5%; solid recovery H2 2.75%.Unemployment rate up; towards 4.75%.Inflation hovers 2.25 to 2.75%.Wages growth drops to 3% with downside risk.RBA cuts 150bps.10 yr bonds to 3.75%.AUD regains 70 as USD falls.House prices keep falling -6%.ASX200 weaker 7,500.
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Wise words from the Ant:.Australia's productivity quack-wank is taxing many fine minds into 'fixing' something than in a modern services dominated economy cannot be measured.
The kiwis have found a way to boost labour productivity. kill the labour market.
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Yowzer! .Hang on to your fez!.
Aussie IR swaps now imply a 25bp cut from the RBA next week as inevitable, and there's even a 7% implied of a 50bp cut. 3 cuts eyed through to December. 16/16 economists calling for the cut next week
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Or maybe they could have won if they scored more runs?.Just thinking.
'England would have won Oval Test had Ben Stokes been there' - Michael Vaughan. Read more 👉
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The job destruction you see in NZ when the zealotry of govt policy focuses on “small” govt and cuts to services.
Get ready for an influx from across the Tasman. NZ unemployment rate approaches 9-year high on another soft labour force print . (Stats NZ)
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Decent lift in household spending - is the consumer back?.Household spending rose a tidy 0.7% in real terms in June qtr after 0.5% in March qtr. Great to see a little more momentum in the consumer side particularly with a rise in consumer sentiment.
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RT @independentaus: While politicians argue over costly reforms, the RBA’s quiet rate cuts could be doing the heavy lifting for Australia’s….
independentaustralia.net
While politicians argue over costly reforms, the RBA’s quiet rate cuts could be doing the heavy lifting for Australia’s economy — and its Budget.
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ICYMI.The RBA in focus - what is the benchmark of success?.
How should the RBA be judged?.It is via its two mandates: inflation & full employment. 2.5% inflation is easy to see, while wages growth that is moderate & stable - 3.25 to 3.75% - is a sign of full employment.
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How should the RBA be judged?.It is via its two mandates: inflation & full employment. 2.5% inflation is easy to see, while wages growth that is moderate & stable - 3.25 to 3.75% - is a sign of full employment.
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Another example showing how interest rates have little relevance to house prices:.This time Canada where aggressive BoC rate cuts have been associated with record house price falls.
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From earlier this week.ICYMI.Australia is already suffering an export recession with values down sharply over the past 2 years. The idiotic Trump tariffs will be hitting when the export sector is already weak.
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RT @IFM_Economist: When considering whether or not to invest in the US economy, particularly in real assets, it is interesting to note just….
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ICYMI.Today's data flow. fair to middling.
Retail spending muddles while the RBA fiddles – building approvals bounce. A gaggle of economic data just released. On any objective analysis, it remains listless. All up, not market moving – growth is so-so; eyes are on inflation & labour force & the RBA.
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The ABS described the latest retail trade data as a "surge". Hhhmmm. Chart from @AntipodeanMacro
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Retail spending muddles while the RBA fiddles – building approvals bounce. A gaggle of economic data just released. On any objective analysis, it remains listless. All up, not market moving – growth is so-so; eyes are on inflation & labour force & the RBA.
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RT @HistoryInPics: in July 2010, Iran's 🇮🇷 Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance officially banned the mullet haircut. .
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RT @LouisRoederer_: “Milnon”, Dizy, Pinot noir for #HommageaCamille #CoteauxChampenois “Véraison” is the moment when the berries turn from….
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ICYMI.Annual trimmed mean inflation now 2.1%; .Headline inflation 1.9%. Cash rate at 3.85% is massively too high. Real interest rates hugely restrictive.
The RBA policy errors crush inflation. Monthly data. Annual headline inflation 1.9%.Annual trimmed mean 2.1%. Quarterly data. Annual headline inflation 2.1%. Annual trimmed mean: 2.7%. Remember: RBA inflation target is 2 to 3%, aiming for the mid-point.
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Curious to see the '3 rate hikes in 2024' narrative that was based on the view that "domestic inflation is stubbornly high".
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