Colin Hanley
@Colin_Hanley1
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@UofAlabama Data Science Student | Aspiring CBB Analyst | #RollTide | https://t.co/tE5ZuZGlhT | https://t.co/w4QLRXemGB
Joined September 2022
I am happy to announce that I have launched a front-end way to interact with my model using Streamlit! . You can use this link to access my model's predictions for any hypothetical matchup, as well as my live rankings.
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Inspired by @EvanMiya, here is a bracket simulation using my model and Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology
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Bracket Sim #2. A chaotic bracket in the early rounds that somewhat straightens itself out other than a VCU final four appearance
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Momentum ranking of notable bubble teams according to my model. SDSU - 57th.Xavier - 6th.Indiana - 127th.Boise St - 257th.North Carolina - 11th.Texas - 347th.Ohio St - 268th.UC Irvine - 194th. Assuming SDSU is in, there are definitely two other teams that stand out to me here. .
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Model East Regional predictions . Am happy to break down any specific matchup, the listed probabilities are the likelihood of winning each specific matchup, not the probability of reaching that stage
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A Comparison of 3-Points % Allowed with Assist Rate for my top 50 teams
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Bracket Sim #4. A very chaotic bracket that ends up in a result that I certainly wouldn't mind seeing. Shoutout UCSD, Montana and VCU once again for making good runs in this bracket
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Bracket Sim #3. A pretty chalky final four, but plenty of chaos in the early rounds with good runs by Akron, VCU and Lipscomb
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@__whatley__ Regardless of political beliefs I just think bringing in someone this politically divisive takes a lot of attention away from the actual graduates.
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Some tuning of my rankings formula, as well as finally training the model on February's data, has led us to a midweek Model Rankings Update‼️
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Comparison of Turnover Rate vs Forced Turnover Rate for my top 50 teams
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Teams with the most momentum heading into the tournament according to my model:. 1. Florida.2. Wisconsin.3. Colorado St.4. Duke.5. Xavier.6. Alabama.7. Gonzaga.8. UCSD.9. N Carolina.10. St John's.
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@BoltUpMedia @SSN_Alabama @TheRealCruzOx @Ryanwms1 @TDAlabamaMag Anyone have any idea what this means💀.
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Week 2 Elo update. Seeing some pretty sizeable shakeups from last week, most notably from the Bama loss to Purdue, Duke loss to Kentucky and Arizona loss to Wisconsin
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A bit late to the party (I promise my model had C Arkansas and Austin Peay winning), but here is my model's very chalk ASUN tournament bracket
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Not the greatest first day, 11/16. 14/16 of the Sweet 16 remain and all 8 of our elite 8 though, so still a lot to play for. VCU losing was rough, as this was a team my model has been high on all year. I still think they are a great team, just ran into a hot BYU squad.
Full model tournament bracket. Very chalk, as you would expect from a predictive model. If you want to use my model to inform your bracket, I would reference the region by region breakdowns on my page, and use those probabilities to find upset spots
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Model South Regional predictions. Am happy to break down any specific matchup, the listed probabilities are the likelihood of winning each specific matchup, not the probability of reaching that stage
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Final bracket sim before we get the real thing!. Honestly like this bracket a lot, I don't believe Gonzaga will make that significant of a run, although definitely possible, but much of the early rounds will be similar to what I pick in my own bracket
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@CBSSportsCBB @JonRothstein Houston would've won if Shead was healthy in my opinion, so kinda unfair to blame them too much.
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My 2024-25 Preseason Conference Power Rankings⬇️. 1. SEC.2. Big 12.3. Big 10.4. Big East.5. ACC.6. Mountain West.7. American.8. WCC.9. WAC.10. MVC.11. CUSA.12. Sun Belt.13. Ivy.14. Southern.15. Big West.16. CAA.17. Horizon.18. Big South.19. American East.20. MAC.
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Fun take on a March Madness game . The team I came up with was Flagg, Queen, Haggerty, Shulga and Tait-Jones . Seed Total: 33.
🚨 Bracketology 32-Point Challenge 🚨. Thought it would be fun to create a new type of game this year as you fill out your bracket. 🏀 Pick any 5 players in the tournament, but their team seed total must add up to at least 32!.📊 Simple scoring: 1 point per PTS, REB, AST, STL,
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Final Four Model Projections. The listed probabilities represent the likelihood of winning each matchup, not the likelihood of reaching that stage
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Please note the confetti pictured is not from the NCAA tournament as Tennessee still has ZERO final fours.
Check out @Colin_Hanley1 new profile pic 👀 Could he be hitting the transfer portal soon?.
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@USFLExpert @BoltUpMedia @SSN_Alabama @TheRealCruzOx @Ryanwms1 @TDAlabamaMag Little hard to tell but I’d assume bak.
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Updated #NCAAB Elo T25 after day 1:. 1. Houston(-).2. Duke(-).3. Alabama(+1).4. Auburn(-1).5. Gonzaga(+4).6. Connecticut(-1).7. Iowa St(-1).8. Kansas(-1).9. Arizona(-1).10. Purdue(-).11. Creighton(+1).12. Tennessee(+1).13. Texas Tech(+1).14. N Carolina(+1).
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Preseason top 25 (Model output not my personal opinion)👇. 1. Duke.2. Alabama.3. Houston.4. Auburn.5. Connecticut.6. Kansas.7. Iowa St.8. Gonzaga.9. Arizona.10. Baylor.11. Creighton.12. Texas A&M.13. Tennessee.14. Purdue.15. Texas Tech.16. N Carolina.17. St Johns.18. Texas.
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It’s only march 2nd.
Central Arkansas outlasts Stetson and advances to the next round of the ASUN tourney!. Will face Lipscomb tomorrow. LEGENDARY performance from FRESHMAN Nehemiah Turner:. 37pts.11 rebounds.4 assists.3 steals.2 blocks. Goodness! @UCAMBB
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With the season only 4 days away at this point, here is my official Preseason Top 25. Will defend all of my picks with some limited enthusiasm, as it is only preseason after all
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Model West Regional predictions . Am happy to break down any specific matchup, the listed probabilities are the likelihood of winning each specific matchup, not the probability of reaching that stage
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@ZachAbbott19 @itsfootballbruh @Austin_Cree @vgkcle_enjoyer @JonSportscas @LCBreezy1 @The_SPORTS_DR @coolguy551_ @_puresharp_ @LMckiney_ @poppowerindex @Brewersworse @JackJSnyder7 @worldwidewetz @JaceStandley @cbbfreak The widespread hatters disrespect has to stop.
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BANG.
NEWS: Miami transfer guard Jalil Bethea, a former 5⭐️ recruit, has committed to Alabama, source told @On3sports. The 6-5 freshman had a career-high 21 points on Syracuse in February.
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Things I like: VCU and New Mexico getting respect, Duke still at 1, Mizzou top 10. Things I don't lilke: Gonzaga and Illinois top 10, Tennessee and Iowa State outside of the top 10, where is Texas A&M?.
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Always a good time interacting with the loving members of BBN😂.
Week 2 Elo update. Seeing some pretty sizeable shakeups from last week, most notably from the Bama loss to Purdue, Duke loss to Kentucky and Arizona loss to Wisconsin
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Model Projections for T25 Games Today:. St Johns(75.9%) over Wagner.Connecticut(75.3%) over Le Moyne.Tennessee(97.8%) over Montana.Auburn(75.4%) over Kent St.Houston(93.9%) over Louisiana.Arkansas(77.9%) over Troy.Creighton(73%) over Hsn Christian. All projections👇.
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@CutlerToForte Must be tough drafting the fourth best rookie qb first overall so I’ll leave u alone.
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So close yet so far. Model still knows ball tho, shoutout @itsfootballbruh for running the competition.
Here are the final standings after all 31 conference championship games:.19 correct:.@JackJSnyder7.@poppowerindex.18 correct:.@Colin_Hanley1.@KarsenKilburn.16 correct:.@vgkcle_enjoyer.@SEC_Wrld.15 correct:.@Jonsportscas.@Brewersworse.@LCBreezy1.14 correct:.@worldwidewetz
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With the conclusion of of the first week of college basketball, we have our first Elo update. Full rankings can be found at the link below.
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Now that it is December, there is finally enough data for my model to generate some at least somewhat sensible ranking, so here they are. Full write up here:
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#Kentucky -8.5✅.#BYU +1.5❌.#IowaSt +1.5✅.#Houston/#OklahomaSt O128.5✅.#NewMexico/#Wyoming U156❌. Going to sleep before the #SDSU game wraps up but looking good rn. BYU read was rough but other than than a decent day especially if SDSU holds on.
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Toying around with different ways to incorporate game performance into my rankings and settled on 6 possible options, which do yall think is the best top 25 ranking (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6).
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@JosePena33 @EvanMiya Duke would beat Tenn over 70% of the time according to my model, this just happened to be a simulation where they did not.
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@__whatley__ I don’t think it’s making an exception, he’s going to be the focal point of attention for everyone there regardless of party.
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Full model tournament bracket. Very chalk, as you would expect from a predictive model. If you want to use my model to inform your bracket, I would reference the region by region breakdowns on my page, and use those probabilities to find upset spots
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2/2on the day. #Tennessee -8.5✅.#UtahSt -6.5✅. 0/3 on the underdog card but at least this is a consolation.
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@itsfootballbruh @Austin_Cree @JonSportscas @KarsenKilburn @LCBreezy1 @JackJSnyder7 @poppowerindex @CincyATW41 @halnweb @benz_gavin @SSN_CBB @cbb_fan_15 @hudsontakes_ @JaceStandley @_puresharp_ @DaveSmithNBA @LMckiney_ @RonchettiStan What the hell is a “Robert morris”.
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@braydonbesecker I don’t have a full writeup posted but I plan to soon, I’ll post it here when it is finished.
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@itsfootballbruh @ZachAbbott19 @Austin_Cree @JonSportscas @KarsenKilburn @JaceStandley @DaveSmithNBA @LMckiney_ @RonchettiStan @Brewersworse @JackJSnyder7 @SEC_Wrld @hudsontakes_ @TroyPagel1 @benz_gavin @cbb_fan_15 @vgkcle_enjoyer These people don’t know starch madness like I do.
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#CBB picks 2/15/24. #Northwestern +5.5.#Utah +1.5.#CalStateFullerton +1.5. Would be comfortable taking these as ML as well if you are looking for better odds.
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Really close to being able to victory lap this post, but Texas being in is puzzling me still. For reference, West Virginia is 126th in this metric.
Momentum ranking of notable bubble teams according to my model. SDSU - 57th.Xavier - 6th.Indiana - 127th.Boise St - 257th.North Carolina - 11th.Texas - 347th.Ohio St - 268th.UC Irvine - 194th. Assuming SDSU is in, there are definitely two other teams that stand out to me here. .
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