BitMEX Research
@BitMEXResearch
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Filtering out the hype with evidence-based reports on the ETF industry & the cryptocurrency space, with a focus on #Bitcoin -
Joined September 2017
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Last Seen Profiles
Judge: I will prepare a fairly long judgement
I have reached the conclusions the evidence is overwhelming
CSW is not the author of the whitepaper
CSW is not satsohi
CSW is not the creator of Bitcoin
CSW did not author the Bitcoin software
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 12 March 2024
All data in. Record day with over $1 billion of net inflow. Blackrock with a record $849 million of inflow
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The Ripple story
We look over the history of Ripple and examine various disputes between the founders. We then explore the technology behind Ripple & conclude that by default, 's server has full control over the ledger
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COPA vs CSW - The trial is now over
COPA won and CSW lost.
The final words from Judge Mellor below:
"Having considered all the evidence and submissions presented to me in this trial, I've reached the conclusion that the evidence is overwhelming. Therefore, for the reasons…
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[1/69] A nostalgic look back at some of the most special, hilarious & fun moments in Bitcoin & cryptocurrency history
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Bitcoin is now at block height 840,000
The halving has occurred!
The block subsidy is now 3.125 BTC
🌗🌗🌗🌗
Blockhash = 0000000000000000000320283a032748cef8227873ff4872689bf23f1cda83a5
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Buying a beer on lightning!
BitMEX Research wishes you a happy new year!
#LightningNetwork
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 15th Feb
All data out. Very strong day. +$477m of net ETF flow
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BitMEX Research has set up a lightning network node:
Public Key: 0287416bd553ff2630ff54640e3a7e4230d632387039313bf5a24d7df2006e13c2
Feel free to open a channel to our node
Deposits & withdrawals are still a long way off, but at least this is a start
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 5 March 2024
All data in. $648m total net inflow for the day. Largest inflows since day 1. Blackrock with a record +$788.3 million day.
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BitMEX Research: Cryptocurrency pricing model (Part 2)
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APRIL FOOLS!
It's $303m of outflow
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0.09765625 Bitcoin in rewards per block when SBF is released
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COPA Vs CSW Trial - New evidence published
CSW submitted to the court a document called Maths.doc. It is dated December 2008. This was one of Wright's primary reliance documents supporting his claim to be Satosh. An extract of the document is shown below, which contains a…
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Fidelity inflow of $208m today, more than offsets the GBTC outflow on its own
Wow! Huge result for Fidelity on day 12.
+$208m
(If correct)
Net positive day today, before even the Blackrock number comes in.
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 9th Feb
All data out. Strong day at $541.5m of net inflow
Invesco had an outflow, the first non-GBTC product to have an outflow day
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ETF Day 1 Flow - UPDATE
Finally the GBTC number is out. GBTC has $95m of outflow
Total net flow for the day into the new ETFs was $625.8m
Bitwise was the victor for day 1
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The plan to sync BSV is now abandoned. We cannot get past the large group of 4GB blocks in October 2022
We will not be able to monitor the BSV network for a split.
@AskRobinhood
@bitfinex
@BittrexExchange
@kucoincom
You are on your own....
Good luck with this....
ForkMonitor BSV Security Update as at 18 Nov 2022
Both nodes still syncing.
9 peers:
* 6 peers running BSV 1.0.11
* 3 peers running BSV 1.0.13 (Protocol which may enable coin confiscation)
Five days ago all peers were running BSV 1.0.11
@RobinhoodApp
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - Day 12
All data out. Strong day, with $255m net inflow overall
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CZ will be allowed to live in the UAE while he awaits sentencing. It was a “very close call” as to whether he would be allowed to go back to the UAE. CZ had to speak himself to convince the court. CZ must return to the USA 14 days prior to his sentencing. The transcript extract…
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WELCOME TO LAW
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BitMEX Research constructs a new cryptocurrency pricing model. It includes price projections for 2019.
Available exclusively on the BitMEX Research desk.
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SBF Trial Day 4 - Gary Wang testimony
FTX's published insurance fund number was fake and FTX's published insurance fund balance was produced by a random number generator!
Transcript extracts below
Q. And the number here, what is the size of the backstop fund listed?
A. Five…
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[1/2] There was a stale Bitcoin block today, at height 666,833. SlushPool has beaten F2Pool in a race.
It appears as if a small double spend of around 0.00062063 BTC ($21) was detected
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Tether
We do not think Tether is a Ponzi scheme.
We identify a possible candidate primary reserve bank for Tether, based on financial data from Puerto Rico.
We list other pseudonymous USD based online payment systems that were shut down by regulators
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SegWit transaction capacity increase compared to Bitcoin Cash
Since the launch of Bitcoin Cash in August 2017, around 6.1 million SegWit transactions have taken place, 20.1% more than the cumulative number of Bitcoin Cash transactions in the period.
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(1/13) Craig Wright is speaking at
@ForumChallenge
this week in London, in a session entitled “What was your purpose as Satoshi writing the Whitepaper?”
Please see below some of the court rulings and fraud accusations related to Mr Wright
Source:
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2020 Predictions:
- $BTC over $2,000, but also under $15,000
- $BTC dominance under 75%, but also over 30%
- CSW says: 2021 is year the Chinese shutdown BTC mining & 1m of his coins hit the market (Whatever else)
-
#MATIC
falls in value by over 80%
@NemanjaMatic
Happy New Year
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Bitcoin ETF Flow
All data out for 13th Feb. Very strong day, with $631m positive net flow over all providers. Huge day for Blackrock at +$493m
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Conference attendees purchasing BitMEX Research branded coffee at
@LNconf
in Berlin, using the Lightning Network
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For the first time since the ETFs launched on 11th Jan 2024, GBTC is NOT the product with the largest daily outflow
Today's ARKB outflow of $88m is larger than GBTC at $82m
Congratulations to
@BarrySilbert
!!
Bitcoin ETF Flow - 02 April 2024
GBTC Outflow: $82m
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In Novemeber 2023, Craig Wright tried to make a version of the Bitcoin whitepaper in Latex. The below animation shows Craig graudually editing the file, to try to make the formatting match that of the real Bitcoin whitepaper, which was made with Open Office
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1/ BitMEX Research publishes a new report analysing the Ethereum holdings of the ICO projects. We establish that the ICOs have already sold almost as much US$ worth of Ethereum as they initially raised.
Data compiled with help from
@thetokenanalyst
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Ethereum 2.0
Ethereum 2.0 is set to launch as early as July 2020, assuming no further delays. Given the decision to scale via sharding, we believe there is little choice other than to attempt this incredibly complex multi-year transition to a new network
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A Complete History of Bitcoin’s Consensus Forks
We list 19 Bitcoin consensus rule changes, which represents what we believe to be almost every significant such event in Bitcoin’s history. At least three of these incidents resulted in a chain split
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 19 March 2024
All data in. Record net outflow of $326m
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[1/3] New Book Published: The Blocksize War
We are delighted to announce a new book. The book covers the major twists and turns of Bitcoin’s blocksize war, which raged for over 2 years, from 2015 to 2017
The book is available to purchase on Amazon now:
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 24 Feb 2024
All data now in, except perhaps for the Galaxy/Invesco product
Friday was a strong day, with +$232.3m of net inflow. Also, the outflow for GBTC was just $44m, lowest level since 11th Jan
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Bitcoin Blocksize Data Visualization
After the upgrade to SegWit in August 2017, although in a much slower fashion than many had hoped, the old 1MB blocksize limit is slowly starting to fade away, as our new chart with data to July 2018 illustrates.
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[1/5] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 28th Feb 2024
All data in. Today was a record inflow day, with $673.4m of net inflow. This was driven by Blackrock, which also had a record day, with $612.1m of inflow
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Call me Ishmael
8 Bitcoin brainwallets were created, using passphrases from popular works of fiction. All the funds were quickly swept away & in one case the funds were taken in 0.67 seconds
If you need to use a brainwallet, don’t choose anything poetic
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[1/6]
📚📚NEW BOOK PUBLISHED📚📚
Reckless: The Story Of Cryptocurrency Interest Rates
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The Bitcoin Cash chain has split into two chains. A hardfork occurred at block 582,679, however since that block, upgraded and non-upgraded nodes have split onto different chains.
The Bitcoin Cash network may not currently be safe for payments
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 12th Feb
Strong day on 12th Feb, with +$493.3m flow over all products
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Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow data
All data out for day 11. $14.8m net inflow in day 11
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 27 Feb 2024
All data now in.
$576.8m net inflow on 27th Feb, very strong day. Blackrock alone had $520m inflow
Total net inflow since 11th Jan 2024 now $6,726.1m for the ETFs
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Does Satoshi have a million bitcoin?
Although the evidence is far less robust than many assume, there is reasonable evidence that a single dominant miner in 2009 could have generated around 700,000 bitcoin. 1 million bitcoin may be an overestimate
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 14 March 2024
GBTC Outflow $257m
(Craig is NOT Satoshi)
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Diagram of a Bitcoin block
We present an illustration of a Bitcoin block, including the Merkle trees. We explain why the 2nd Merkle tree in the block is necessary. We then take a closer look at some of the negatives of both overt & covert AsicBoost
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Proof-of-Work is NOT needed to validate transactions. When you receive funds, your wallet should validate the incoming transaction
Proof-of-Work is system which decides between conflicting VALID transactions produced around the same time
We know the problem.
#Bitcoin
uses an outdated technology called proof-of-work to validate transactions. This method uses massive amounts of energy and is a huge source of climate pollution.
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@rogerkver
@seoulblockchain
@VisitSeoul
@buyvpnservice
@BithumbOfficial
@coinplug
@coinone_info
@kevin_coinone
@GOPAX_kr
@coinnest_info
However, according to this fantastic report by the research team at
@chainalysis
, 10x more Bitcoin Cash coins are held for investment purposes, rather than for transactions. In Bitcoin the equivalent ratio is 1:1.
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 07 March 2024
All data in. Net total inflow of $472.6m. Another strong day, with Fidelity performing well, with +$473.4m of flow
Over $10 billion withdrawn from GBTC since 11th Jan 2024
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 04 March 2024
All data in. Very strong day with +$562m net flow. Fidelity very strong with a record day
Not the best day for diversity, with smaller players BTCO, HODL & BTCW all having outflows
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@JeremyRubin
@cz_binance
The same thing was suggested in 2016 when Bitfinex suffered a hack of 120,000 BTC.
Read the comments from back then, which explain some of the potential negative consequences of a re-org like this.
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Bitcoin is now at block height 630,000, the 3rd halving has occurred!
🌗🌗🌗
The block r̵e̵w̵a̵r̵d̵ subsidy has now fallen to 6.25 BTC, from 12.5 BTC
Blockhash = 000000000000000000024bead8df69990852c202db0e0097c1a12ea637d7e96d
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The Lightning Network
We explain the motivation behind the creation of LN and why its scaling characteristics are superior, potentially resulting in a transformational improvement. We look at LNs limitations, including the downside of inferior security
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[1/3] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 26th Feb 2024
All data in. Strong day with $520m net inflow
Total net inflow since 11th Jan is $6,030m.
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 26 March 2024
All data in. Strong day with $418m net inflow.
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SBF Trial – 10th October 2023 – Caroline Ellison Testimony
Just like with other witnesses, quick admission of crimes at the start:
Q. When you were working at Alameda, did you commit any crimes
A. Yes, we did.
Q. When you say "we," who do you mean by "we"?
A. I mean Sam and I…
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Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - 14th Feb 2024
All data in. Another strong day, with +$340m net flow for all the Bitcoin ETFs
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Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - Day 13
All data in. Another strong day with +$247m of net flow overall
Some uncertainty about the Fidelity flow figure. Will look into later
@EricBalchunas
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - Day 14
All flow data out. Net +$198m inflow for all providers
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 21 March 2024
GBTC Outflow $359m
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 18 March 2024
GBTC Outflow $643m
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[1/3] Bitcoin ETF Flow - Up to 22 Feb 2024
All data in. +$251.4m net flow on 22nd Feb. A strong day.
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List of 42 Bitcoin fork tokens
Although in 2018 Bitcoin may have somewhat moved on beyond this issue, in this sixth piece on consensus forks and chainsplits, we provide a list of 42 tokens which seem to have forked away from Bitcoin
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Tracking US$24 billion Of Tokens ICO Teams Gave Themselves
In collaboration with
@thetokenanalyst
, this report focuses on the treasury balances of the ICO tokens. Teams issued themselves US$24.2 billion of their own tokens, now worth around US$5 billion
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 06 March 2024
All data in. $332m net inflow on 6th March.
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Please see below the exhibit, with the code showing the random number field in the formula to calculate the FTX insurance fund figure to publish
SBF Trial Day 4 - Gary Wang testimony
FTX's published insurance fund number was fake and FTX's published insurance fund balance was produced by a random number generator!
Transcript extracts below
Q. And the number here, what is the size of the backstop fund listed?
A. Five…
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 10 April 2024
GBTC Outflow $18m
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@CryptoHayes
Two men leave Deutsche Bank's offices in London earlier today, following 18,000 job cuts. Interesting design on the bag carrying home their possessions
As per the FT
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On 18th April 2019, our Bitcoin Cash SV node experienced 2 block re-organisations. First a 3 block re-organisation, followed by a 6 block re-organisation.
The below graphic illustrates the events. It includes the block heights, block hashes & block sizes of the relevant blocks.
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Bitcoin SV appears to have had a 210MB block. This may have sent our node offline and we are struggling to restart it. Other Bitcoin SV block explorers also appear to be down
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 13 March 2024
All data in. Another strong day, with $684m of net inflow
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BitMEX Research is now running 3 lightning nodes
Node 1: 0287416bd553ff2630ff54640e3a7e4230d632387039313bf5a24d7df2006e13c2
Node 2: 0395033b252c6f40e3756984162d68174e2bd8060a129c0d3462a9370471c6d28f
Node 3: 03b38f5fb693ae96fda9533c7ba45840c0afc4390544223a18dd676d858bfd5b15
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 11 March 2024
All data in. A strong day with $505.5m net inflow. Blackrock again leading with $562.9m of inflow
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 18 March 2024
All data in. $154m net outflow. First outflow day since 1st March. Biggest disappointment was Fidelity inflow appears to be declining, just $5.9m on the day, a record low.
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 16th Feb 2024
All data in. Another strong day with +$331.7m net flow. For the week its +$2,273.4m net flow
Total net flow since 11th Jan is +$4,926.9m
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Overall Flow stats for ALL Bitcoin ETPs since 11th Jan 2024:
* New US ETFs: +$4,536m
* GBTC Outflow: -$3,447m
* BITO Outflow: -$143m
* Top 6 European ETP outflow: -$138.8m
* All 23 others Outflow (Rest of Europe, Canada, Brazil etc): -$86m
GRAND TOTAL INFLOW: $721m
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 09 April 2024
GBTC Outflow $155m
1K
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Tether Addendum – New data from Puerto Rico
Bank deposits were up 248% to $3.3 billion in the quarter. This extraordinary growth coincides with the recent crypto boom. The data supports our speculation that Noble Bank is Tether's primary reserve bank.
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 21 Feb 2024
All data now in. Net outflow of $35.7m
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Bitmain’s IPO
Documents highlight some of the issues:
* Investing too much in BCH
* Too much inventory
* Loss-making sales
However, Bitmain shipped 3 million miners & produced $1.3 billion of cashflow in 2017, demonstrating a strong execution capability
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Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - Day 2 UPDATE
Flow number for Blackrock now in. Blackrock had $386m of inflow. This gives Blackrock almost $500m of inflow in the first 2 days, likely putting it in the lead
Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - Day 2
Day 2 share count is out for GBTC. $484m of outflow in day 2 and total GBTC outflow in the first 2 days of $579m
Fidelity looks to be in the lead with a strong second day, still waiting on Blackrock data for day 2
For smaller players like Hashdex…
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[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 08 March 2024
All data in. $223m positive net flow for thew day
The assets of the ETFs excluding GBTC are now over $28 billion, this is now larger than GBTC's assets for the first time
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - Update to 7th Feb 2024
Flow is strong. $145m net inflow for 7th Feb.
[Data processed in court: COPA vs CSW]
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SIXTY FIVE THOUSAND UNITED STATES DOLLARS PER BITCOIN
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FTX’s highly praised liquidation engine turns out to be completely fake. It was never implemented. If a customer was liquidated at a price worse than the bankruptcy price, there was no system in place whatsoever to deal with the shortfall. No wonder FTX was attractive to traders.
FTX never implemented liquidations. If a customer was liquidated at price worse than the bankruptcy price, FTX never implemented any system to deal with that loss.
Q. What's a clawback?
A. A clawback is a mechanism for resolving any losses that arise from a liquidation. And by…
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COPA vs CSW Trial - Quill paper
CSW disclosed a piece of notepaper into evidence, with a supposed date of August 2007, with various plans about Bitcoin. If authetic, it would support Craig's claim to be Satoshi
COPA contacted the paper manufacturer, and established, with…
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 22 March 2024
GBTC Outflow $170m
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Lowest daily outflow ever for GBTC today
Bitcoin ETF Flow - 10 April 2024
GBTC Outflow $18m
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[1/4] BitMEX is delighted to announce two new grantees on our no strings attached Bitcoin developer grant program.
@renepickhardt
and
@chris_coverdale
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Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - Day 11
GBTC Outflow -$255.1m
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