Bill Conerly
@BillConerly
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The economist who connects the dots between economics ... and business.
Portland, OR
Joined September 2009
"Adding Highway Lanes Will Reduce Congestion Despite The Skeptics" is my latest Forbes article. #congestion #traffic #transportation.
forbes.com
Sometimes lanes are added but congestion returns. If the region grew in population and employment, then ask what the traffic would have been without the extra lanes.
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"Housing Surplus And Lower Prices Coming From Low Immigration Rate" is my latest Forbes article, pointing to the key role of demographics in the coming years. #economy #housing.
forbes.com
Population growth is ending in the U.S., so not much need for more housing. Even fast-growing regions will see fewer people moving in, with other area declining.
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"Jobs Data Revision Misses Real Issue Business Leaders Must Understand" is my latest Forbes article, explaining that with very low immigration, our working-age population is roughly flat. #economy #employment.
forbes.com
The employment data revision suggested a weaker economy. But our labor force is hardly growing, so low job growth says little about economy’s strength.
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The Businomics Newsletter for August 2025 is out with charts on GDP, savings, housing, purchasing managers survey, nonresidential construction, import inflation, interest rates and the stock market. #economy.
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Recession Risk In Autumn 2025 Rising With Tariff Uncertainty
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"AI To Cut Expenses Can Boost Sales Through Better Customer Service" is my latest Forbes articles, highlighting innovations from Regal and WFG Title. Thanks to @alexrlevin, Patrick Stone and Justin Tucker for their insights. #AI #customerservice #economy.
forbes.com
AI agents are handling customer service calls themselves, with high satisfaction rates. Sales benefits may well dwarf cost savings—when done right.
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"Data Shows Job Security Is Not Falling And Layoff Risk Is Improving" is my latest Forbes article. But general perception is otherwise. Managers should emphasize stability (when true) in recruiting employees. #economy #recruiting.
forbes.com
Data from several U.S. government sources show relatively stable average length of service at a company, low layoff risks, and net benefits from a flexible labor market.
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The Businomics Newsletter for July is out, with charts on job growth, retail sales, non-residential construction costs, apartment vacancies, small business confidence, inflation and wages, interest rates and global stock prices. #economy.
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"Historical Data: Recessions Trump Interest Rate Relief For Car And Home Sales" my latest in Forbes. Been working for auto dealers & real estate agents; wondered if they would benefit from a recession as Fed cuts rates. #economy #interestrates #recession.
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"Essential AI Strategy: Invest Employee Time Before Expecting ROI" is my latest Forbes article, which highlights Workday Inc.'s lessons on raising employee productivity with artificial intelligence tools. #AI.
forbes.com
The Workday experience provides lessons for businesses trying to increase productivity through an AI strategy. Employees need to spend time before they can save time.
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"Business Leadership Development in an Uncertain Economy," my latest Forbes article, emphasizes that contingency plans for economic risks (and other risks) should be developed not just by the CEO but with managers as well. #economy #leadership.
forbes.com
It’s not enough for the top executive to think through risks and challenges. The people at the company who will implement contingency plans need to participate.
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I was interviewed on the Association Insights Podcast about the economy: how it affects associations and their members. Much of what we talked about, though, is relevant to businesses. Website:
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"Why The World’s Economic Forecasters Aren't Panicking Over Tariff Wars" is my latest Forbes article, showing just a small reduction in economic forecasts around the world since last December. #economy.
forbes.com
The global economy will suffer only a little from the current tariff turmoil. Economists around the world have lowered their growth forecasts a very small amount.
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"Great Wisdom On AI And The Future Of Work: ‘We’ll Figure It Out’" is my latest Forbes article, bringing together views from @DarioAmodei, @SHRM, .@ctlind and @kmanguward. #economy #AI #Jobs .
forbes.com
Greater productivity leads to lower production costs. Competition yields lower prices to consumers. Here are reasons to be optimistic about AI reshaping the job market.
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"The Fed’s Problem And The Interest Rate Forecast" is my latest Forbes article about monetary policy and tariff uncertainty. I expect flat rates this year. #economy #tariffs #interestrates
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AI can indeed write a song. My friend asked AI: "Write a song in the style of comedic singer songwriter Greg Tamblyn.” Greg recounts the story here: It's a funny song; not great, but not bad.
lnkd.in
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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My latest Forbes article is "The Lost Magic Of Manufacturing Employment Never Really Was" covers the rise and fall of Rust Belt manufacturing. Companies should not pin their strategy to a manufacturing renaissance in America. #economy #manufacturing
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@coreyharlock of @keyhiresolutions was a great host; more of a partner than an interviewer. Good insights for any business that hires humans.
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