Guru.Asymmetry
@Asymmetry_Fi
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Ex Fund Manager providing actionable insights in crypto, equities and real estate. Free Asymmetry discord -
London, England
Joined October 2019
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Pinned Tweet
A massive shoutout to the
@BecauseBitcoin
crew for having me on their stream earlier today.
It was great to riff with these legends and explore our thesis for continued market growth and dig into some more specific alts.
Give it a watch, give them a follow.
@i_am_jackis
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I sold the highs in 2021 and bear posted for nearly 24 months.
I publicly bought in September/October 2023.
Less trades, higher conviction. Do less.
Im not going to turn into a bear now pre-halving after multiple OI flushes and whilst many alts are 30-50% off their cycle
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Some interesting observations on $BTC HTF
Next halving should fall around 8th April 2024 using previous data.
From market bottom to halving the mean is around 535 days. This is in-line with the potential bottom for this cycle at $15,000 in November 2022.
A second capitulation
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$USD Liquidity.
The only thing that matters for crypto markets.
A simple explanation 🧵👇
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Capitulated to the $TIA narrative and rotated my $ETH
Too many similarities to early $SOL /w big funding beating the drum
I caught $SOL after it retested the listing wick on FTX at $3 and rode to $200+ in late 2021 - can we run it back again?
$TIA buyer down to potentially $3
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Sentiment check.
Where are we in the cycle?
I think red circle until we breakout above last range high on good volume.
Where do you think?
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My overview of the current decline in global growth and some indices I use to track macro risk off-on sentiment for $BTC and
#crypto
💰💰
A thread 🧵🧵👇
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We are still a month away from the halving and way ahead of schedule for where we should be price-wise this cycle.
This is unhealthy and signifies a 'left-translated' (quicker and earlier top) to the cycle. We do not want this. We want a slower and steadier bull market to form
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Wen Alt-season?
For those who aren't already aware - the key barometer we use to ascertain when an alt-season/period of alt outperformance is due is a macro $BTC dominance drop-off.
An alt-season simply represents market participants getting increasingly more confident to move
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There are two main schools of thought for how the next
#Crypto
market cycle may play out. 🧠🧠
I believe both are wrong. ❌
Below I lay out my thesis for how the next cycle will materialise.💡
A thread 🧵🧵👇
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Choosing which alts to hold for next cycle. 💰
In an upwards trending market it is important to take note of alts that are both outperforming and undervalued. 📈
These alts have the highest probability chance at pulling multiple x's in this coming market cycle. 💸💸
Use
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A comprehensive macro cheatsheet for crypto 💰
What macro indicators/data should I be following?
How are these indicators relevant for crypto markets?
I'll simplify things below 🧵👇
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Confused about bonds and bond spreads? 🤔
Why are these relevant to us as crypto and risk investors?
Below I'll explain my system and how we can use bond spreads as a great barometer for overall economic health to ultimately make larger profits. 💰
🧵 👇
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Study complex pullbacks.
$TOTAL3 - A thing of beauty
Don't get shaken out, this is the final stage before the fireworks begin.
________________________________
The complex pullback pattern is a common occurrence within these markets, characterised by its intricate dynamics
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Imo we just witnessed blackrock taking down binance to pave to way for a coinbase/USDC coalition-led bull market.
When institutions? They are already here and meddling.
They always win eventually.
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One metric I like to use to ascertain the relative risk in alts.
USDT.D = The market dominance in % of $USDT stables.
$USDT is by far the largest stablecoin with a live marketcap of $108B compared to $USDC in second at $32B and $DAI in third at $5B.
I invert the USDT.D chart
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U scared anon?
Scared money doesn't stick around for the inevitable alt szn (s) coming up.
Don't get shaken out.
Stay away from margin unless you know how to handle it.
Guru.
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More often than not, the news itself is immaterial, it is the initial market reaction that is the main tell.
$ETH has barely moved upon the announcement of the SEC waging its war and trying to classify the asset as a security.
A fart in the wind.
The last dying death knell of
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A secret weapon.
My smoothed stables/M2/liquidity indicator.
I use it as a barometer for when I should be scaling into and out of spot positions.
Flashing caution currently.
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@coinfessions
I can top that with buying $22M doge and selling for $400 profit after holding for three years in 2016
In fact i fumbled a $2M bag of wif just the other month
We do this for breakfast
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The $BTC halving
Many seem to fundamentally misunderstand how this key four year event in the lifecycle of $BTC directly affects price.
The halving is taking place in around 12 hours time.
Here are some thoughts and a simplified breakdown.
Many moons ago I used to work on a
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Reverse Repo 🌊
$2.2T in liquidity held at the Fed - accumulated as part of the tightening regime.
When overnight rate is no longer attractive compared risk premia, the liquidity release into markets will be insane.
As investors, we must watch this situation carefully.
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Study $SOL from May 2021 to August 2021.
87 days of nothing but chop.
Shorts/Longs were equally massacred.
Only the patient sat in spot positions survived this.
$SOL then went on to print another 700% ROI
It is looking more and more likely that many alts will form this
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@WifeyAlpha
Please research before fud - you have a responsibility with your audience size and reach, especially at a time such as this
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Narratives drive bull markets. 🐂
To catch the high performers in this upcoming cycle - we must be cognisant of the sectors that capital flows will favour. 🔄
Below are some of my favourite narratives for the next 1-2 years and how to profit. 👇🧵🧵
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My full macroeconomic investment stack and a full guide for everyone to follow. 🌎
I use various other metrics to guide my investing/trading but these are the basics.
Looking to learn macro? This article is a good starting point. 💰
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The macro volatility of last week is now behind us.
With $BTC breaking and holding above $60k with healthy volume and relatively muted OI - this looks to be a re-accumulation phase as opposed to a distribution phase that many were postulating.
The $57k wick could be seen as a
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@AndreasSteno
It was the US not Russia... why would they voluntarily sabotage billions in infra costs when they know they have EU over a barrel and control the supply anyway?
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Just a friendly reminder not to be bullish simply due to a lack of patience. Confirmation bias is a killer.
Being bearish is also flawed as we are down >85% on most ponzis.
Neutrality is the play here, closely followed by $ETH and $BTC then rotations into solid alts.
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@Pentosh1
Had 22M $DOGE bought in 2013 - sold several years later after getting bored with PA for $250ish profit...💀
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Textbook accumulation on $PYR
Buying a large bag of this in the coming months.
- Gaming launchpad/NFTs
- Built on Elysium (Carbon neutral)
- Stablecoin $GST (commodity-backed)
Look for projects with ambitious roadmaps that keep shipping throughout the bear.
@VulcanForged
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Big shoutout to my guy
@tedtalksmacro
- consistently posts incredible macro insights and great market analysis.
Give him a follow if you want to add some serious value to your feed!
Get him to 100k! 💪
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Albania today - Kosovo tomorrow then on to Montenegro.
The Balkans are hidden gems if you’re looking to fully commit to touching grass this summer.
Do everything with conviction.
Nothing in moderation.
Up only.
Guru.
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Free alpha
Play BRC20/ordinal and $BTC beta narrative up till the ETF approval
$STX $ORDI $MUBI $CHAX $BSSB
Then quickly rotate to $ETH beta and frontrun regulators resuming discussions
$LDO $ARB and $ETH defi bluechips
Near end of this rotation $SOL +eco +L1s will rip again
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That move was healthy and imo bullish into the ETF
- Sudden market liq cascade.
- Shatter the optimistic expectations for ETF approval.
- Shorts begin to stack.
- Big players actively acquiring bags.
- ETF receives approval.
- Just before the ETF, many get sidelined or
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The flush will come soon - make sure you're not holding the bag when it arrives.
Alts up again on
@binance
but no $TOTAL2 follow-through = raw pvp and capital rotations rather than new inflows.
Beyond this - $USD liquidity continues to trend down.
Exercise caution here.
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Nearly ready.
As contrarian as it seems - altseason is loading ⏰
Make them think its all over, make them think we have macro topped, make them think that ETF flows won't trickle down into alts.
Then send it.
BTC.D reached cycle highs today.
If you have been sidelined you
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My
#CPI
Strategy 🚨
September Data release at 12:30pm GMT. ⏰
Exp Sept CPI 8.1% Exp Sept Core 6.5%
Prev Aug CPI 8.3% Prev Aug Core 6.3%
Long $ETH + $BTC if CPI <=7.9 and Core <=6.3 📈
Short $ETH + $BTC if CPI >=8.3 and Core >=6.6 📉
A Masterthread 🧵🧵👇
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Wykoff Distribution?
Protect your gains.
Scenario 2 looks to be playing out from my previous posts - $35-37k would be a great area to get back in.
All part of a healthy market.
Medium/long term targets remain - don't get shaken out.
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$TIA
The darling project of CT during Q4 2023 yet no one is talking about it now.
Tech is the same, fundamentals are the same, people just want to chase the next shiny thing.
A GCR quote regarding rabbits comes to mind 🤔
Next mark-up phase loading.
Send it.
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Jobless claims are now turning positive on a YoY basis for the first time since COVID and 2008.
This aligns nicely with my thoughts of H2 this year for the real recession to start kicking in from a data/market perspective.
This will be when we start backing up the truck to
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BTC.D+ETH.D
I was shown this and now use it in my analysis.
The inverse of this represents the strength of the alt markets and acts as a proxy for $TOTAL3
This chart perhaps has one more rally in it AT MOST, but with the HTF negative divergences playing out for the last 6
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$SOL
The long-term plan remains the same.
Anything below $15 I scoop.
Anything below $10 I sell some internal organs.
The need for low tx fee, fast L1s is more poignant now than ever. Couple this with $SOL's unbeatable marketing and brand image alongside the upcoming release
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2024 could be the year that you change your life forever.
Potentially the largest (and likely last) secular crypto bull market is upon us.
Everything you do right now should be setting yourself up for 2024 - everything should be high ROI.
Learn, network, research, invest.
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@martypartymusic
@Forbes
Surprisingly this is mostly accurate.
Imo $STX, $FTM, $KAS shouldn't be on here.
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This is where they chop you up.
This is where they test your conviction.
Sit tight, patience WILL be rewarded.
If you're in solid projects from lower prices - don't sacrifice your entries.
You are all gonna make it - the next phase is when things really heat up.
We haven't
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> santa pump to 42-44k December
> slow bleed to 35k after ETF approval early Jan
> ETF spot flows come in and people start bidding the halving narrative
> FED stops QT in May/June 2024
> Trump wins presidency Nov 2024
> 125k for 1 BTC in early 2025
Imagine the smell.
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$PEPE
One of my largest spot bags.
Was buying aggressively around November 2023 with the Asymmetry crew.
Don't fade the frog - think this goes to $30B+ this cycle - currently sitting at $3.2B
Next major target annotated.
This bottomed with the wick through the golden pocket
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$SOL
For those wanting upside cycle $SOL targets - heres the three I'm eyeing.
$425 / $700 / $950
As we move higher, the probabilities naturally start to dramatically decrease. What is possible starts to get regulated by what is probable - there in an inverse relationship as
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In the new year everyone in my circle is gonna eat
Ill make sure everyone around me extracts as much value from these markets and generational opportunities as possible
Make sure you're following along for the journey
2024 we gonna dominate
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GM all!
Lots of data this week - expecting a resolution to the liquidity currently sat on in the TGA (Treasury general account - essentially the government's piggy bank). Potentially around $1.4T of liquidity about to be injected into the markets. This may be especially needed
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CONTEXT.
$BTC
Important to recognise where we are in the cycle and use previous datasets (although sparse) as a barometer to guide our decision making.
Previous cycle ATH break vs. Live price action.
1. Liquidity taken from upside - FOMO induced.
2. Longs liquidated - low
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Mt. Gox creditors may receive repayments from March 10 onward.
A 137,890 $BTC ($3B) unlock will be occurring.
The question is how many creditors will sell? I'd wager a decent amount since being forced holders since $800 per $BTC.
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The US02Y yield is a crucial proxy for crypto performance.
It is influenced by monetary policy expectations, economic growth projections, market risk sentiment, and inflation forecasts.
In the short term it has very closely followed $BTC price action as shown below.
Use it as
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X has just been granted a money services license in South Dakota.
Is this part of a larger move for them?
Long $GROK and $DOGE for beta to this
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ALPHA
$EIGEN x $SWELL Thesis/Farming Guide
Historical Airdrops 🪂
$ENS: $1 billion distributed at a $40 billion FDV.
$ARB: $1.5 billion distributed at a $15 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV).
$dYdX: $900 million distributed at an $11 billion FDV.
Eigenlayer Thesis 🧠
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$ETH
It literally is a case of holding this to $6000
Only you, your emotions and your unfiltered twitter feed can sabotage this easy 85% ROI trade.
Don't use debt instruments, ONLY use leverage if you know what you're doing, spot ideally - easy win.
The W is yours if you want
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$BTC mining difficulty silently hitting a new ATH yesterday.
This metric will one day be a leading indicator to PA - never underestimate the conviction of well capitalised OG miners to ensure the integrity of the network.
2024 halving will be explosive.
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$ORDIBRIDGE
Chart looking super clean and pa being respected nicely
Team keeps shipping with 42 pairs vs 5 pairs on $MUBI
Dapp and staking still to come
Still $1.5M mcap...targeting $5M here if all goes well
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I've had a lot of messages in the past few days regarding $BTC price action and whether the selloff is now complete - this is my take on things.
This is what we want to see in $BTC to confirm that we have now seen the lows for this larger pullback.
Ideally we need to see a
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Market/Macro Update
Given the drop in price from $61k to $56k, the prevalence of panic isn't surprising, the institutional investors of the ETFs aren't immune to this.
ETF flows were notably negative yesterday, totalling $563.7 million in outflows. Specifically, $GBTC
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Seen a lot of people bashing $ETH recently for being a stablecoin.
Few understand the significance of the level it is about to breach.
Mid of the macro range.
Break this, hold above and we teleport upwards.
Moves like these take time - there is a war going on in the books.
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I am starting to research my optimal investment portfolio composition to hold till 2025-6.💰
Evaluating the fully diluted value (FDV) and market cap (MC) of projects are my most important selection criteria. 💡
🧵🧵👇
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Why I believe the US is responsible for Nordstream 1/2 sabotage.
Never underestimate the US gov and their propensity for misdirection and violence in order to assert global control and maintain the $USD hegemony.
🧵🧵👇👇
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An awareness of the larger macro backdrop is vital to ascertain when/what to allocate capital towards. 🌐
My brief cheatsheet below:
Real GDP ↑ = Asset prices ↑
Corporate Earnings ↑ = Asset prices ↑
Consumer Spending (PCE) ↑ = Asset prices ↑
Monetary Policy (Tigher) =
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Revisiting my macro indicator for crypto.
We are in the caution territory.
We have not yet entered the impending goblintown zone but this has served me extremely well in the last two cycles for timing macro entries.
Should be used in confluence with liquidity regimes.
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$INJ +200% 💰
Well done if you bought with me around $2-3
Didn't need much patience with this one at all.
Starting to take profits off the table here - this rally was very aggressive and very fast, shows inefficient order-books and I don't intend to let gravity to get the
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$MUBI @ $0.02 [+1300%]
$CHAX @ $0.003 [+250%]
Now $ORDIBRIDGE @ $0.007 [+235%]
The crew just keep winning 💰
If you're not part of the asymmetry discord yet, you'll keep seeing these heavy hitters on my feed throughout 2024
Get involved - link in bio 📈
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Just woke up to this 😂
Free 10% play - cheers guys.
$USDC is blackrock money backed by short term US treasuries.
Peg will likely be restored by monday.
If not - “crypto, whats that?” 😂
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Patience.
We live for days like this.
If youre in shorts, lock in stops and hold.
If youre sidelined, sit tight and wait for calmer conditions before assessing next moves.
Unfollow all that were bullish last week.
Purge your feed.
Your future pnl will thank you.
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$20
2 months later
Learn to spot an outlier early $TIA
Capitulated to the $TIA narrative and rotated my $ETH
Too many similarities to early $SOL /w big funding beating the drum
I caught $SOL after it retested the listing wick on FTX at $3 and rode to $200+ in late 2021 - can we run it back again?
$TIA buyer down to potentially $3
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$BTC fractal from previous halving nearly invalidated.
$DXY looks to be taking one last leg up - catalysed by Japan selling US treasuries to save their struggling currency and economy. Deviation then down here for rest of the year?
$NQ pretty cooked and closing bearish for the
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I'm a huge $ETH bull.
When I begin heavily accumulating spot tokens again later this year, I'll be backing up the truck to scoop $ETH
I'd like to see $5000+ before 2025 provided no black swans or negative endo/exogenous variables.
Will be ~50% of my portfolio.
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$GLMR
This is what accumulation on an alt looks like.
Look for charts like this when we start bidding spot.
- $DOT parachain with associated chain security
- EVM compatible
- Large ecosystem fund
- low fees, fast tx
- High RR
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We likely have one more up-only digital asset bubble to profit from in the near future (circa EOY 2023/H1 2024).
The Fed will eventually 'revert to type' and turn on the printers following a full pivot. This HAS to happen for the tradfi ponzi circus to continue in its current
There are two main schools of thought for how the next
#Crypto
market cycle may play out. 🧠🧠
I believe both are wrong. ❌
Below I lay out my thesis for how the next cycle will materialise.💡
A thread 🧵🧵👇
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🪙 Gold market cap
pre-ETF in 2004: $1 Trillion
Now (20 years later): $14 Trillion
₿ Bitcoin market cap
Pre-ETF (Now): $820 Billion
2044: ???
Do we see a -18% correction between ETF approval for $BTC and the live trading date? No one knows.
However, the laws of
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Slow and steady portfolio growth will always outperform constant rotation.
Trading to get the dopamine hit & gambling with your money will only see you make sub-optimal returns this bull cycle.
Sit tight in high conviction projects szn.
Guru.
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Some great data from
@TXMCtrades
Many economists put more weight on the US10Y/03M curve than the traditional US10Y/02Y curve. 🧠
We are roughly 11 months into the inversion of the US10Y/03M yield curve, signalling a poor short term economic outlook. This inversion began in
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Aggressive capital rotations.
We are seeing this play out live.
BTC ➡️ ETH ➡️ SOL +eco ➡️ AVAX +eco ➡️ INJ +eco ➡️ TIA +eco
Next rotation is $SEI or $ARB imo.
Follow the cartel.
Guru. 🥂
There are two main schools of thought for how the next
#Crypto
market cycle may play out. 🧠🧠
I believe both are wrong. ❌
Below I lay out my thesis for how the next cycle will materialise.💡
A thread 🧵🧵👇
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$MOZ with one of the cleanest charts I've seen in a while
Only $12M mcap
First mover in the Ai/Fi space and on $ARB acting as beta to $ETH ahead of the ETF run-up in Q2
Google cloud web3 startup programme
10% circulating supply the rest staked
This one should print
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Simplicity.
Remove the noise.
HTF 1M $BTC chart.
We are forming an accumulation range and have recently seen a deviation of the range highs with very little new capital inflows.
Wykoff accumulation is my preffered PA route.
Selling climax (SC) was caused by FTX event.
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Narrator: He didn't "blindly ape"...
The price of $WIF?
$0.00011
The project was 3 days old...
A $500 investment would be $1,900,000 at live prices.
Ive been here since late 2013 and this isn't the first of these big misses and 100% won't be the last.
The important
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This is THE dip you buy btw
See you all on the other side
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@tedtalksmacro
@tedtalksmacro
- for anyone wanting to learn more about the BOJ and YCC - I've written this article in an attempt to fully explain the dynamics and effects on risk assets such as crypto.
Few understand the gravity of the interrelationship.
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The music is starting to slow down - the $PEPE pump may have been the last song.
Generally when participants move further out on the risk curve to seek gains, it is a greed driven decision and a rationale obtained from a lack of gains within the safer confines of higher quality
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Still want lower and more of a distro range to form before we can go higher
Next major target for $BTC will be ATH around early summertime - this is when things will get really exciting
We have only seen the first test pumps so far
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@scurvyBTC
Incorrect - the programmatic scarcity of $BTC is one of the main value-drivers for investors. Hence around this time period the space gets alot of external attention which leads to inflows. The composition of the run always changes and evolves, however we will have a run
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BRC20 narrative (50x shortlist)
$TRAC $82M
$MUBI $70M
$TURT $10.5M
$GHSY $8M
$ROUP $7.9M
$OG $5.1M
$DOVA $4.9M
$NHUB $2.9M
$STST $2.8M
$TRVS $1.2M
Guru.
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The current banking crisis will worsen before getting better.
SVB, Silvergate and Credit Suisse were not the last big blowups.
A quick, simple explanation thread.
🧵🧵👇
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$TOTAL
This represents the entire marketcap of cryptos.
We need to normalise the depth and duration of these pullbacks by looking to previous datasets in prior cycles (blue boxes).
We can see that multi-week 20-30% pullbacks are normal and signify a healthy (yet emotional)
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Just read Dalio's thoughts on the SVB situation.
As suspected his thoughts align nicely with my musings on CT of late.
Remember as the 2s10s curve steepens, we usually see markets crash then bottom.
We are close to the big long term buys that I have been waiting for. 💰
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We have seen [price-led] capitulation in the crypto markets.
We are now deep into the [time-led] capitulation.
The phase where people gradually get bored and leave the space simply due to lack of activity and boring PA.
Remember - markets are a transfer of wealth from the
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The Echo Bubble - food for thought
Assuming the macro bullish move originating in 2023 was a giant echo bubble reminiscent of the echo bubble we saw in 2019 - then what comes next?
Ive overlayed $BTC price action during the echo-bubble period of 2019 with $OTHERS (my favourite
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