Aᴍɪʀ
@AmirIGM
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Analysis/Commentary on Iranian Geopolitical and Military affairs. Author of Iran GeoMil blog ✍️ RT/Follow ≠ Endorsement
Joined June 2015
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Twitter's been having more problems lately... so I've created a Telegram channel, just in case.
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These are literally just tents. They bombed tents.
Footage showing the massive destruction that Israeli forces inflicted on the so-called 'safe zone' of Al-Shaboura camp in Rafah.
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The US is telling Israel to "take the win". Iran is claiming 'Operation True Promise' was a success.
In reality, both sides can claim victory in their own ways.
A thread 🧵
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Video🎥: Missile launched by IRIAF F-5, subsequently immediately intercepted by IRIAF MiG-29, likely using R-73 AAM.
(yes, you read that right)
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Iran has unveiled its 'FATTAH' hypersonic ballistic missile, with a range of 1400km and maximum speed of Mach 15.
Instead of a high-lift HGV, it uses a speed-optimised MaRV with a thrust vectoring sustainer motor.
THREAD
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Iranian ballistic missiles in Europe? Reportedly Russia is looking at procuring Fateh-110s and Zolfaqar missiles, with 300km and 700km ranges respectively. Let’s take a look at how Russia might use these BMs. THREAD.
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IRIA M60 upgrade with additional armour, some kind of barrel guard, and a RWS.
We may see more information about this in Iran's New Year celebrations next week.
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Interesting: While saying that all quadcopters around Isfahan were shot down, Artesh representative is standing in front of a Nebo SVU "anti-stealth" radar.
Subtle messaging to Israel that incursions will be detected and defeated
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This is almost certainly a JDAM.
Some Israeli accounts have claimed it's a failed rocket hitting an ammo depot. If that were the case, we'd see a small explosion followed by a large secondary.
This large explosion is immediate once the bomb lands, no Hamas rocket can do that.
Reported video of the projectile which hit the Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza tonight which led to mass casualties.
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Israel did not fight this attack on its own. It did it with the help of the US Air Force, US Navy, French Air Force, Royal Air Force, and Jordanian Air Force. All flying mainly in other countries outside Israel.
All because Israel bombed a consulate, against int'l law.
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Iranian strategic-class ballistic missile launchers on the move, Tehran-Qom highway.
This is quite unusual - this class of missile is seldom seen publicly outside of exhibitions and parades.
Contingencies being planned for.
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Bizarre. US seems to have found a use for Iranian weapons it seized on their way to the Houthis; they're handing them over to Ukraine!
#Ukraine
: Apparently, we were right in asserting that Ukraine is receiving Iranian weapons seized from the Houthis by the United States - here we see a pristine Iranian mortar in the hands of the Ukrainian army.
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In a visit by Khamenei to IRGC-ASF achievements, Iran has unveiled a boost-glide Hypersonic missile called "Fattah-2".
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Thread of missiles used in Iran's 'Operation True Promise' against Israel.
Launch and debris footage/images used. Some stock images for context/understanding.
Full video at end of thread.
1. Emad (liquid-fueled)
Not 100% certain but this piece of debris that fell in the Jordanian city of Karek does look a lot like the remnants of an Iranian Emad missile to me.
- Serial configuration (three letters - dot - A - number) similar to Emads previously seen.
- Arrangement of cable raceway,…
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IRGC-ASF Commander BG Hajizadeh has told press that Iran has developed a hypersonic missile that can manoeuvre at extremely high speed both inside and outside the atmosphere. He said among its capabilities will be to not just bypass, but target missile defence systems.
#hyperhype
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Why did Iran buy the Yak-130? A thread. 🧵
Hint: it's not because it's a "light attack" plane
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The Shahed-123 has traditionally been viewed as a puzzling ugly-duckling little brother of the Shahed-129.
But the Parchamdar documentary has revealed a very different story. It in fact holds and important place in Iran's UAV development history.
A thread 🧵
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Undated video of 4x PLAAF Su-30MKKs and an Il-78 refueling aircraft transiting Iranian airspace. They are being escorted by an IRIAF F-4 Phantom.
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It's impossible to argue that Iran did not achieve that. Israel has been attacking Iranian targets in Syria for ~10 years, and Iran turned the other cheek. This time, Iran launched a large retaliation that required the US to pull in multiple allies operating over foreign airspace
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Israel's "win" was military-technical in nature. It claims to have destroyed all drones and cruise missiles, while intercepting most - but not all - ballistic missiles.
Israel has one of if not the densest and most advanced anti-ballistic missile coverage in the world.
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This is the most idiotic and obvious "news" fabrication I've ever seen in my whole life.
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Undated image and video leak of Yak-130 in Isfahan, Iran. Yesterday there were rumours that 2 Yak-130s had been transferred to Iran, and today these images have been shared through unofficial sources.
These trainers are Iran's first observed practical step to adopting Su-35s.
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IRI Army held an exercise and there were a few small but interesting things to take from it. Thread:
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This strike served to demonstrate that Iran has the capability and resolve to respond to future attacks. Meanwhile, it showed that Israel was stretched to its limit and needed foreign help to try and stop what is only a fraction of Iranian capabilities.
Iran’s invocation of Article 51 of the UN Charter occurred following a 13-day period marked by the Security Council’s inaction and silence, coupled with its failure to condemn the Israeli regime’s aggressions. Certain countries’ precipitous condemnation of Iran’s exercise of its…
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It's also known that the US Navy helped Israel intercept some ballistic missiles, and aircraft from the US, Israel, Jordan, and France participated in intercepting drones and cruise missiles over Iraq and Jordan.
A vast effort.
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Crucially, some ballistic missiles got through and struck Nevatim airbase.
From Iran's perspective, last night was a political success. Why? Well, Iran's objective was to restore deterrence following Israel's bombing of Iran's consulate in Syria.
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New: After decades of stagnation, the IRIAF is set to receive Su-35s, which will provide a massive boost to Iran's air capabilities.
I look at the capabilities of the Su-35 and how it will fit in to, and influence, Iran's military.
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Iran's Defence Ministry spokesman has said that the MASAF-2 rifle has passed all tests and will be the Iranian Army's new standard-issue rifle.
It replaces the H&K G3, and is chambered in 7.62x51
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First production version of 'Yasin', a twin-engine, subsonic intermediate/advanced trainer rolled out today in Tehran.
The production version has several differences with the initial prototype that show some progress in Iran's aviation industry - THREAD 🧵
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Iran was well aware that Israel would enlist foreign help, and this actually played into Iran's hands. It meant that Iran could launch a larger, more politically significant attack without causing heavy damage that could potentially cause escalation.
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Remember that preventing escalation was another key objective of Iran.
Biden has told Israel to "take the win". And if it doesn't, the US won't help Israel attack Iran, which it would require if it wanted to fight a successful campaign.
That's exactly what Iran wanted.
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IRGC-N has shown off its new catamaran missile FAC, the Shahid Abu Mahdi.
Main armament consists of 6x Noor family ASCMs. It also has some short range SAMs, as well as a host of 20-30mm auto/rotary cannons.
Particular attention has been paid to reduce radar cross section.
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Iran says it destroyed a target in the Indian Ocean at a range of 1800km. Finally, the long range anti-ship ballistic missile that Iran has been developing for years is a reality.
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Short THREAD: Reportedly this is the first-stage engine section from the Qased SLV that Iran launched today, which fell away after stage separation and landed in Sistan & Balochistan province.
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One of the best images we have of the Shahid Soleimani-class catamaran
That missile canister seems quite tall... quite similar to the launcher for the 1000km range Abu-Mahdi anti-ship cruise missile.
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Interesting footage from another Almas strike on an IOF site.
Here we see a red crosshair interface and black arrow/triangle for manually changing the target. Green crosshair returns once the target is selected, and white arrow/triangle returns once missile is close to target.
⚡️MUST WATCH: Hezbollah published another amazing video showing the operation that targeted the spy equipment at the Ras Naqoura naval IOF site with a special guided missile.
Probably another top-attack Almas ATGM.
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We got SAR and optical imagery of the Isfahan incident within 24 hours. 7 days on and this is the best we've got from Nevatim 🥱
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Some interesting things to take away from today's launch of the 3-stage, all solid-fuel Qaem-100 SLV. A thread 🧵
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Interesting before/after image posted by BBC Persian, of Planet Labs imagery from Nevatim airbase
Shows some kind of damage adjacent to F-35 shelters
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General Hajizadeh, Commander of IRGC-ASF on the Ain-Al Asad strike: "I did not believe they [US] wouldn't respond. We had chosen 400 targets to strike in case the US attacked."
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World leaders from China, US, Europe, and the UN are calling for restraint. They are largely aiming these calls at Netanyahu.
We'll see if he heeds those calls. But Iran has said it is ready if Israel makes another mistake.
Chief of Staff of
#Iran
’s Armed Forces: We regard this operation as completely successful & we do not intend to continue the operation, but if Zionist regime responds, our next operation will be much bigger….We conducted the operation for Israeli regime crossed Iran's red lines
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Second Shahid Soleimani class hull seen up close, named Shahid Hassan Bagheri. Notable differences - all 6 ASCMs are 300km range Ghadirs, instead of 4+2 shorter range Nasirs as in first ship. Slightly altered mast. Looking forward to better images.
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Artesh media channel posts a video of IRIN Helicopter getting up close and personal with USS Essex (LHD-2) "the opening to" the Persian Gulf
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I will probably do a thread or blog post later analysing the military aspect of last night's events.
But for now I'll leave you this picture of Netanyahu looking lame.
*𝘍𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘻𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘦, 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥 𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩*
𝘠𝘦𝘱, 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵'𝘴 𝘮𝘦...
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Iran's Space Agency launched an uncrewed test-flight of its prospective 500kg manned capsule aboard a "Salman" launch vehicle. The capsule reached 130km altitude on a suborbital trajectory.
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Stealing the attention at the Defenders of the Velayat skies 1400 exercise today, a potent SHORAD system with:
Phased array search radar
360° coverage with VLS
8 ready to fire missiles
All contained on a cost-effective wheeled vehicle with good mobility
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New light cargo aircraft "Simorgh" has been revealed by HESA. It is a modification of the IrAn-140 design with a rear cargo ramp for easier loading/unloading.
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Circulating video showing unmarked (likely IRGC) Mohajer-6 crash-landed in Zabul province in Afghanistan. Just East of Kandahar, ~450-600km from Iranian border.
Iran seems to be keeping an eye on the Taliban following frequent border clashes since takeover in 2021.
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New 'Paveh' cruise missile with 1650 km range. It can fly at altitudes lower than 50 metres. Intended to attack targets (including air defences) from all angles. Shown in this video diving down to the target, likely in a popup and dive attack after mainly low-altitude flight.
لحظه شلیک موشک کروز دوربرد پاوه با برد 1650 کیلومتر و حرکت در ارتفاع پروازی 50 متری از سطح زمین و درنهایت اصابت به هدف
موشک با استفاده از بوستر سوخت جامد از لانچر شلیک شده پس از ارتفاع گرفتن این بوستر از بدنه اصلی جداشده٬ بالهای آن باز شده و موتور اصلی روشن میشود.
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The Tomcat that was recently brought back to service after 18 years grounded was 3-6059 (BuNo 160357). But the remarkable thing is that I've found no images of it with those markings in IRIAF or even IIAF service. This is its first public sighting ever!
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Shahid Mahdavi, originally a container ship, now converted to a warship.
Interesting: Has retained original deck for mounting shipping containers.
Indicates this will be a multi-mission ship, with different modules and armament able to be added quickly and easily.
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Images from Defence Industry Day are late this year - should have been out on Aug 22. But here we are and there are a few new things to look at.
Zoheir laser air defence system with optical tracking, for targeting UAVs and cruise missiles.
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I can't speak to exactly what Israel's retaliation would be against Iran.
But I do know that Iran can do much more than what we saw tonight. If Israel attacks, Iran has the capability and capacity to meet any escalation.
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Fattah-1 vs Kheybar-Shekan
The difference between a rocket-powered Hypersonic MaRV and an unpowered MaRV after making heavy manoeuvres.
Same booster, same range, vastly different endgame energy.
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PMF didn't even form until after the fall of Mosul - in fact, they formed as a group because of it. They weren't involved. Mosul was entirely defended - unsuccessfully - by the US-trained and armed Iraqi Army.
This is revisionism.
The IRGC almost fired him and put Shamkhani in as Qods Force commander for losing Mosul half of Iraq to ISIS until he launched a PR blitz to save his career but go off, king
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Iran's Intelligence Minister: "We consider nuclear weapons haram. But if you back a cat into a corner, it will act differently to a free cat. If they push Iran, it's not Iran's fault it's their fault for pushing Iran; in normal conditions Iran has no such plans or intentions"
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Thinking separated boosters are missiles...
Whatever makes you sleep at night bro
BREAKING: Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target, three US officials say - WSJ
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I don't usually praise Iran's public messaging but everything since Op. True Promise has been spot on. In all levels of govt, military, and foreign ministry.
Crucially for deterrence purposes, Iran has repeatedly promised that Israeli attack in response would not be acceptable.
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Iran shows off what is essentially a Clip for launching missiles in quick succession from its underground missile cities. This mitigates the low number of launch ports at these bases and adds more possibility of overwhelming ABM systems.
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A video has emerged depicting a precision-guided 333mm Fajr-4 artillery rocket being dropped from an IRGC-ASF Su-22. No firing is shown; it may simply be a drop test, hence the BDU-33 training munition dropped with it.
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This graphic shows Saudi Air Defences around the Abqaiq oil facilities that were struck early Saturday. The drones were well within PAC-2 range, but outside Hawk range. It's possible that the low-flying or the drones' small size and composite materials helped it avoid detection.
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Interesting video showing Shahed-129 transport to Syria's T4 airbase by An-72* and Il-76 transport aircraft.
Impressive and useful that it's compact enough to fit in a medium-sized transport like An-72
انتقال پهپاد شاهد 129 به پایگاه هوایی T4 سوریه و اسمبل پهپاد در این پایگاه
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Iran shows off a new Trimaran warship design under the "Safineh" project.
3000 tons
96 VLS cells
4 Kamand CIWS
Anti-ship cruise missiles
Multi-array AESA radar
57/76 mm gun
Flight deck with 2 helicopter hangars
40+ knot speed
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IRIS Sahand has been seen fitted with 4x Sayyad-2/3 launch canisters and an accompanying phased-array FCR to guide them. This increases SAM range from 45km (RIM-66B/Mehrab) to 70-120km. SAM missile load is increased from 2 to 4.
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IRGC-ASF Commander BG Hajizadeh on Operation Martyr Soleimani (Ain Al-Asad strike Jan. 2020): Had US retaliated with just 1 missile, our second wave would have entailed 400 missiles targeting US bases in the region, from Jordan to Kuwait and the UAE.
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These images should be enough to ID whatever crashed in Iraq
It seems that some missiles were launched from the Israeli side after all. In neighboring Iraq, the remains of at least two unknown missiles have already been found this morning. One in the Latifiya area near Baghdad
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Looks like Iran tested a SARH or ARH version of the 9th Dey system's missiles in the Velayat-1402 exercise, which started yesterday. These ones have ~30km range and can reportedly engage targets below 50m.
This is a useful image for 9th Dey's missiles
1⃣Unnamed short-range missile
2⃣20km Command-guided
Next missiles are visibly larger - range extended to 30km
3⃣IR-guided
4⃣SARH
5⃣Extended guidance section - likely ARH
A wide range of missiles for different situations
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THREAD: delivery of 1084 pieces of military equipment to the IRIA (Artesh Ground Forces).
Note: some types are shown in small quantities, but this may have been delivered in larger numbers outside of this ceremony.
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CNN getting a guided tour of the IRGC-ASF museum was not on my 2024 bingo card
An up-close look at the type of missiles Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps used in its attack on Israel.
@fpleitgenCNN
reports from Tehran
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2 days after, when the retaliation decision hasn't been made yet ✊🙁
vs
9 days after, when the retaliation decision has been made (maybe) ☺️
Hopefully Hajizadeh has been permitted to use some new toys...
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False headline.
What Hajizadeh actually said was Iran only used 20% 𝙤𝙛 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙞𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙙 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙪𝙨𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩.
My comment: the other 80% was probably for defence and follow-ups if required
Video via Tasnim
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Video showing a Navvab VLS air-defence missile being launched from the Shahid Soleimani catamaran corvette
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Based on Tasnim report, Iranian strike on ISIS-K targets in Idlib is the furthest direct military strike in the Islamic Republic's history.
Targets of previous strikes in 2017 and 2018 were near Deir ez-Zor, closer to the Iraq-Syria border.
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Russia still has available forces around Ukraine that it has not utilised. Just as in the past ~10 hours, it can further increase the intensity of warfare if progress is not made to its satisfaction. 15/
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2020 in a nutshell: American-built F-16s armed with Israeli-made Python missiles escorting an Iranian ship carrying petroleum to Venezuela.
Bonus: one of the videos shows Venezuelan AF F-16A and Su-30MK2 aircraft escorting the Iranian tanker. One of the F-16s is armed with Israeli Python 4 missiles, which Venezuela acquired in 2004. Funny how politics works 😉
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Given the flightpath, range, and image quality, this is definitely Almas. Even the crosshair matches Iranian testing.
Almas with its 8-10 km range is a game changer for Hezbollah, allowing them to hit these sites from standoff range and more easily concealed positions.
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Khorramshahr-2 test:
this quote about what it feels like to be on the business end of a ballistic missile strike is really something
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Almas is such an important weapon for Hezbollah, who due to their lack of an air force have had to use rockets/drones to carry out such long-range strikes.
These carry significant escalatory risks. But ATGMs are considered lower end, and fit differently into the equation.
⚡️MUST WATCH: Hezbollah just released the video showing the attack that destroyed a Merkava tank at the Al-Baghdadi site with a “special guided missile” (which means it’s another top-attack Almas ATGM).
Another beautiful path-recorded Almas ATGM footage 🔻
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The Parchamdar documentary has revealed some interesting details about the Shahed-129's development and use in Syria.
A thread 🧵
Shahed-129 is one of Iran's most mature products. But it started out as a simple subscale model called Mersad-129 (pictured, 2007).
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Am Iranian fisherman on Qeshm Island found another part of the RQ-4 drone.
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"Iran must face a credible nuclear threat".
This is an outright threat of nuclear attack from the warmongering leader of a nuclear weapons state. If Iran had said such a thing about Israel there would be uproar.
Pretty good justification for an Iranian nuclear deterrent.
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Russian brochures for "MC-236" (Shahed-236) and "M-237" (Shahed-238).
S-236 appears to be S-136 with an EO/IR seeker, and targets can be chosen by operator.
S-238 can be used to destroy slower UAVs and also as a way of expending SAMs due to its similar speed to manned aircraft
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Iranian Qiam missiles used in the attack have warheads that separate from the missile body well before impact. Agencies reporting significantly more launched+failed missiles (esp. using debris as evidence) than official 15 are likely referring to the missile bodies.
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Shahed-147 is IRGC-ASF's new twin-boom high altitude surveillance UAV
Known info:
26 metre wingspan
60,000 ft altitude ceiling
Jet or turboprop engine
Synthetic Aperture Radar
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Recently shown, an IR jammer and laser warning system for Iranian helicopters. This is part of an ongoing program to upgrade the defensive suite of IRIAA AH-1J SuperCobra helicopters.
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Another SHORAD, Dezful. This one is the long-awaited "Iranian TOR". And they weren't kidding, it looks like a direct copy.
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THREAD: Iran unveiled 2 radars today; the 'Khalije Fars' (Persian Gulf) and 'Maragheb' radars. Khalije Fars looks to be a OTH radar, and Maragheb a long range conventional radar.
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