Interested in understanding #constitution-al change in #Africa? Happy to share my article which is now officially out Including for #Ethiopia-ns, as constitutional change through #referendum, outside of the regular amendment process, appears a possibility https://t.co/73mKWkDLai

You don't seem to understand the bigger problem - the arbitrariness with which these tariffs are imposed. It is 10% on Eth now. Could be 50% tomorrow. Without a level of security that deals will be respected, few will have the courage to invest, especially in troubled places.

Great opportunity for emerging scholars working on judging and the courts

Policy (politicians) should determine what needs to be done, while the law should guide how it should be done. Beyond the Tigray interim president, this post is about the importance of institutions/systems (ስርአት) in place of ad hoc discretion (ዘፈቀደኝነት)! END

Ultimately, a society can't leave public processes to discretion of one person. Even good things– like giving poor persons houses- must be done based on rules. We should know in advance how a poor person is selected among many poor souls (otherwise, it is mere politicking)-9

Notably, institutional choices should be based on elite dialogues, subject to broad public understanding/ support. If the ostensible resort to the public is to bypass elite dialogue, rather than discipline such dialogue, it can be dangerous - like now -8

The selective resort to direct public will can be seen as a sham (conscious or sub-conscious) – especially when this is done based on individual discretion (በዘፈቀደ). Ultimately, democracy is as much about the people as it is about elite dialogue - 7

Consider also the major economic policy reforms, the move towards ethnic ‘equalisation’ of the civil service in Addis Ababa etc where the public largely had virtually no opportunities to provide inputs- 6

Even efforts that can potentially have public backing, while reducing public anxiety– eg Oromiffa lessons in Addis schools, ‘corridor’ devt – are often imposed top-down. Even directly affected people are given a mere days/weeks’ notice period to demolish their homes livelihoods-5

This ostensible invocation of the popular will contrasts with the practical disregard of the public in policy/ decision making, lack of transparency and accountability - 4

Abiy gave in to pressure to remove Getachew, but is not willing to endorse their nominee. Officials may claim Abiy’s call democratically empowers the people. Gedion has also indicated that the Dialogue Commission should speak with the people, not ‘self-appointed’ elites-3

Whatever the intention, Abiy's move will lead to same challenges as before – interim president and party leader won’t be same persons, leading to inevitable power struggles. And is arguably contrary to the Pretoria accord which calls for decision based on 'political diaogue'- 2

#Abiy called on Tegaru to nominate names for interim president. May be he will also seek public input on whether to keep the Mayor of Addis or presidents of the other regions :) As expected, #TPLF has rejected this as contrary to the #Pretoria Agreement -1

The Ethiopian Ruler of Maharashtra Malik Ambar, buried a five minute walk from the Ellora Caves, is of the most extraordinary figures in world history.

The "new" #America seems to be bringing Europe together, and potentially even East Asia. There are probably similar talks in Latin Ame, and the Middle East should also find a way to live together and prosper together - especially Saudi Arabia, Iran Egypt. https://t.co/nElAdiyFmZ

There is still a chance to prevent death n destruction: Abiy can recognize the de facto authorities and agree effective representation of Tegaru in federal institutions and fair share of federal resources, while TPLF undertakes to resolve all issues, incl on land, peacefully.END

Abiy may choose war on TPLF and possibly Eritrea. This would be a huge gamble, but Abiy is driven more by will than anything else. Such would accelerate tactical alliance between TPLF and Eritrea, who could possibly support Fano to expel Amhara PP. ዉይ ህዝቤ፣ ዉይ ሃገሬ!

TPLF may consider a negotiated deal with Amhara in Welkait, but this would be too complicated, and Amhara PP doesn't have any agency. Maybe with Colonel Demeke directly. Or tempted for revenge? Not sure #Abiy would fight them, and #Eritrea may be more reluctant this time -2

#Tigray #Ethiopia #Amhara #Eritrea Faction Debretsion has effectively taken control of Tigray. What next? 1. Abiy may consider suspending budget, services etc, or even impose a blockade 2. TPLF may try to retake Welkait- partly to boost morale of a weary Tegaru public -1

Excellent summary of the interim #constitution of #Syria by my colleague @zalali