Auto Racing Analytics
@AR_Analytics
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Breaking down why drivers win races: speed, restarts, traffic management, clean driving Join: Data Analyst @LEGACYMotorClub
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Had the entire 267 laps at Miami gone green and the final positions were based on speed alone (Median Lap) Kyle Larson would've finished approximately 2.5 miles ahead of 2nd place
42
152
2K
Had the entire 500 laps at Martinsville gone green, the cars could run laps without interference from each other, and Ross Chastain rode the T 3/4 wall for all the laps, this is approximately where they would've finished on track per median lap.
20
130
1K
Ross Chastain's final lap was 1.667 seconds faster than Christopher Bell's, which equates to roughly 39 Martinsville hot dogs.
18
95
1K
Had the final 50 laps gone caution free and the finishing order was determined by speed alone this is approximately where the top 10 would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap
27
30
792
If the ENTIRE 82 laps at Indianapolis were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
34
34
750
Had the final 50 laps in the cup race at Martinsville been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 fastest cars would've finished on track
(Everyone is going the SAME SPEED)
55
78
713
According to Auto Racing Analytics data ...
Kyle Larson has not been passed under normal green flag running conditions on a non-drafting oval (NDO) since Richmond
11
51
625
If the full 75 laps of Chicago were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the fastest cars would've finished on track. (SVG was booking it!)
14
39
533
----Cleanest Drivers----
Lowest crash rates in 2023 Cup series
17
35
508
If the final 50 laps at Las Vegas were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
28
21
491
Had the final 50 laps gone green and the cars could race without interference this is approximately where the 15 fastest cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap.
22
20
478
If the final 40 laps at Pocono were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
28
20
473
If the final 50 laps at Texas were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
****Disclaimer Below on Larson*****
23
16
468
If the ENTIRE 82 laps at Watkins Glen were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
24
17
443
Had the final 50 laps gone green and the cars could race without interference this is approximately where the 10 fastest cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap in the Phoenix Cup race.
23
15
433
This may be the restart of the year by
@CBellRacing
and Stevie Reeves on the final restart, went from 15th to 5th. 5 wide on the bottom in turn 1, gets 21 in turn 3 to be 8th at the white, goes 3 wide middle down the back stretch, and passes fading 47 car in final corner for 5th
9
44
413
If the ENTIRE 109 laps at the Roval were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 20 cars would've finished on track
7
24
400
Had the 75 laps at COTA gone green and the finishing order was based on speed alone, this is roughly where the cars would've finished on track per median lap data
17
18
398
Had the final 50 laps in the cup race at Martinsville Fall 2021 been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 fastest cars would've finished on track
Context:
92.7% in
@jeff_gluck
poll
more below...
Had the final 50 laps in the cup race at Martinsville been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 fastest cars would've finished on track
(Everyone is going the SAME SPEED)
55
78
713
27
26
399
If the final 50 laps at Phoenix were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
12
26
374
As we look forward to Homestead, I just wanted to remind everyone what happened last year…
Had the entire 267 laps at Miami gone green and the final positions were based on speed alone (Median Lap) Kyle Larson would've finished approximately 2.5 miles ahead of 2nd place
42
152
2K
13
26
354
If the final 50 laps at Richmond were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
21
10
345
If the final 50 laps at Las Vegas were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
17
19
333
If the final 50 laps at Michigan were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
12
12
329
Indy 500 Broadcast > Nascar on FOX Broadcast
Mega difference
18
15
333
If the final 50 laps at North Wilkesboro were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
4
16
320
Positions Net on Restarts NASCAR 2023 cup
Congrats to
@BubbaWallace
and
@FreddieKraft
on a dominating performance
19
29
321
Had the final 50 laps in the Cup race at Gateway been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 would've finished on track
Another short track, another race where everyone is going basically the same speed
35
14
316
If the entire 200 laps at Fontana were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the cars still on the lead lap would've finished on track
(complete finishing order and points below)
6
9
302
If the final 50 laps at Kansas were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
10
9
298
Highest TERMINAL CRASH Rate in Nascar Cup 2023
15
14
298
If the final 50 laps at Nashville were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
10
15
288
This week's restart of the week is
@Mc_Driver
and
@SpotterClayton
going from 28th to 15th on the final restart. McDowell gained 11 spots in T1 on the outside without contact advancing to 17th. The next time he is in the TV frame he's 13th exiting T12. Good CLEAN work. +15 pos.
8
28
289
Had the final 25% of the clash gone green this is roughly where the top 10 would've finished on track per median lap
10
12
286
Positions Net on Restarts in 2023
Congrats to
@BubbaWallace
and
@FreddieKraft
as the 23 is all but guaranteed to be the best restarter of 2023. Second place is still very up in the air though
16
33
280
Had the final 50 laps at Darlington gone green and the finishing order was based on speed alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap data
7
12
277
Had the final 50 laps at Dover gone green and the finishing order was based on speed alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap data
7
10
273
Best truck series restarters per positions net in 2023
5
22
275
Best Restarters in the Cup Series post-Darlington
11
21
268
If the final 50 laps at Bristol were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
16
9
262
If the final 50 laps at Darlington were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
10
12
261
If the final 50 laps at the LA Coliseum were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
8
6
255
If the final 50 laps at New Hampshire were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
7
5
250
The Auto Racing Analytics Algorithm has spoken!!
This is how it projects the playoff bubble will look at the end of round 1
#NASCARPlayoffs
#NASCAR75
#NASCAR
35
22
251
Had the final 50 laps at Kansas gone green and the finishing order was based on speed alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap data
8
9
248
Had the final 50 laps in the cup race at Dover been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 fastest cars would've finished on track
22
10
248
Had the final 50 laps at Darlington gone green and the cars could race without interference from each other, this is approximately where they would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap.
24
9
238
If the final 50 laps at Martinsville were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
10
14
229
Best restarters per positions net on non-drafting ovals in 2023
7
23
223
If the final 50 laps at Bristol were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
20
12
220
Had the final 50 laps in the cup race at Darlington been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 fastest cars would've finished on track
10
13
219
Cleanest drivers in the cup series post-Atlanta.
4
15
215
If the final 50 laps at Homestead-Miami were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
9
7
217
Don’t tell me those tearoffs are offset for aero purposes
10
5
212
Had the ENTIRE 68 lap in the cup race at COTA been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 20 fastest cars would've finished on track
9
14
208
Total number of REAL passes in the last 5 non-drafting oval races. These are passes measured at start and finish line. Removing the 5 laps following a restart and pit stops.
(Bristol and Richmond are a little bit effected by people staying out long hoping for cautions)
14
22
209
If the final 50 laps at Phoenix were based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 cars would've finished on track
18
10
206
Best restarters per positions net in 2023
Topping the charts
@BubbaWallace
said this weekend he prides himself on his restarts, and rightfully so.
Also, props to the rookie
@TyGibbs
for making the list. That's incredible
Bubba Wallace wound up third at Texas despite leading 111 laps. What he said about the battles with William Byron and Kyle Larson over the final 22 laps.
68
69
762
11
22
206
@SteveLetarte
I could potentially make this happen. What races do you have in mind? For a young guy like myself could you give a shout out on Dirty Mo Dough?
7
3
206
Had the final 50 laps at Michigan gone green and the cars could race without interference from each other, this is approximately where they would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap.
12
8
201
Had the final 50 laps in the cup race at Kansas been based on 4th quarter median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 fastest cars would've finished on track
15
10
204
@BubbaWallace
Larson went 2 for 4 so you got the Retention Rate win as well for 2023
80.92% on the season
Larson ended at 78.69%
(*better than anyone from 2022 as well)
1
5
201
Had the final 50 laps at Martinsville gone green and the finishing order was based on speed alone, this is roughly where the cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap data
10
6
195
Had the final 50 laps at Richmond gone green and the finishing order was based on speed alone, this is roughly where the cars would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap data
8
8
188
The fastest lap of the
@ATLMotorSpdwy
race was turned by
@KyleBusch
on lap 152.
29.909 seconds
185.362 mph
0.762 seconds faster than his median lap
0
20
187
NEW PASSING STAT!!
Most Efficient Passers in the 2024 LA Clash
Answers the question: "Once in passing range, how often do you make the pass?"
13
10
185
I don't mean to be that guy, but imagine an All Star race here with the Next Gen car
14
7
174
Race 2
If the entire 267 laps at Las Vegas were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the cars still on the lead lap would've finished on track
(complete finishing order and points below)
6
9
166
Had the ENTIRE 400 laps in the cup race at Martinsville been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where cars still on the lead lap would've finished on track
7
6
169
Had the ENTIRE 267 laps in the cup race at Kansas been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 15 fastest cars would've finished on track
9
6
170
@BubbaWallace
dominated restarts and should be getting this award. Best retention rate and positions net
Congratulations
@dennyhamlin
, winner of the 2023 Growth Energy Green Flag Restart Award in the NASCAR Cup Series!
@GetBioethanol
|
#NASCARAwards
113
67
730
6
17
169
Fastest cars per average median lap rank on road courses in 2022
4
11
164
Had the entire Xfinity race at COTA been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 fastest cars would've finished on track
5
9
164
Auto Racing Analytics Algorithm's Projections for the points standings after 26 races in 2024
Thoughts?
Podcast linked below will explain exactly how the math got here, and what I agree and disagree with
Also, expected winners and probability of winning a race will be out soon
19
6
163
Had the final 50 laps at Kansas had an even start, no pit cycles, and no cautions this is approximately where they would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap.
14
10
162
Had the final 50 laps at Martinsville gone green and the cars could run laps without interference from each other this is approximately where they would've finished on track per 4th quarter median lap.
6
5
156
Had the final 50 laps at Texas gone green and been decided on 4th quarter race speed alone, this is approximately where the top 10 would've finished on track per median lap
11
6
152
Had the entire 267 laps at Miami gone green and the final positions were based on speed alone (Median Lap) Kyle Larson would've finished approximately 6/10ths of a mile ahead of 2nd place Ryan Blaney.
That's waaaayyyyy closer than the 2.5 miles last year!!!!
5
9
153
The Auto Racing Analytics Algorithm has made its projections, and it expects the playoff cutline to look like this in 6 races time!!
Where do you agree/disagree?
27
11
150
Race 4
If the entire 75 laps at COTA were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 10 cars would've finished on track
(complete finishing order and points below)
Race 3
If the entire 312 laps at Phoenix were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the cars still on the lead lap would've finished on track
(complete finishing order and points below)
3
3
130
5
5
145
The tracks get 65% of the TV money?!?! That doesn't even make any sense. What incentive do they have to promote the race to sell tickets at that point? (This was from the teardown)
11
8
147
It’d be really cool if each series would just embrace their identity, the drivers would respect one another’s discipline, and the fans would appreciate all of it
Each series provides an opportunity to enjoy motorsports through a different lens. I fear the gains we’ve made reducing separation between fanbases has unfortunately peaked and we’re starting to head back down the unhealthy path of unnecessary elitism.
3
2
89
4
10
143
Had the ENTIRE 250 laps in the Xfinity race at Martinsville been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 12 fastest cars would've finished on track
12
6
142
Winners of Super Speedway races in Next Gen vs Gen 6 2019-2021
In my opinion, drivers had to have a more distinct skill in the old style plate racing to win. Today's track position, shove the car in front as hard as possible, doesn't really do it for me
12
15
140
Best and worst teams in the cup series for positions net on green flag pit stops
12
3
138
Had the ENTIRE 293 laps in the cup race at Darlington been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 6 fastest cars would've finished on track
5
7
140
The Auto Racing Analytics Algorithm has made projections for the Bristol Night Race!
Agree/Disagree? Please note the gap between cars is not seconds but an arbitrary unit of measurement
19
9
134
Fastest cars per Median Lap at Phoenix Spring
(percentage off fastest car per lap)
2
5
134
We don't give them enough credit. Cup drivers are really good
4
7
133
Race 3
If the entire 312 laps at Phoenix were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the cars still on the lead lap would've finished on track
(complete finishing order and points below)
Race 2
If the entire 267 laps at Las Vegas were based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the cars still on the lead lap would've finished on track
(complete finishing order and points below)
6
9
166
3
3
130
Had the ENTIRE 400 laps in the cup race at Dover been based on median lap speed data alone, this is roughly where the top 12 fastest cars would've finished on track
8
4
129
2023 NASCAR cup driver's restart positions net in order of their average running position on the season
19
16
124
@LucasHansen26
@RossChastain
@dariangrubb
@JustinMarksTH
@TeamTrackhouse
@MartinsvilleSwy
@NASCARonNBC
@Blaney
@jeff_gluck
The math behind this is real, however, we understand that it wouldn't ever work in action. This one is just for fun!
0
0
122
Best restarters of 2022
#NASCAR
It appears that the restart championship has been wrapped up going into the final race, but what a season it has been. Will Chastain stay above +200? Will anyone else join him?
5
6
120