In 1971, Nixon "temporarily" closed gold window. In 2008, central banks "temporarily" went into crisis mode. I'm temporarily skeptical it will all end well.

another chart along the same lines: total known gold holdings in ETFs. src: BBG. Excludes Chinese gold ETFs

You tell me what this means.

GDXJ shares outstanding over the past year lower pane: volume. source: bloomberg

GDX shares outstanding over the past year lower pane: volume. source: bloomberg

And yes, we've had a good dose of speculators adding to the mix, of late in particular.

Agreed that "debasement" looks different. Yet: define debasement. IMHO, what we see could well be the early phase of debasement. Think of inflation feeling good in its early phase, driving up all asset prices.

Bloomberg, quoting Rabobank: The surge in gold prices to... appears to be driven by diversification of global reserve portfolios rather than investor fear of debasement.. * Agreed key buyer is institutions. * Shrugging off debasement trade - well, that's more complicated.

As with any of my tweets, you get what you pay for - this is food for thought, not investment advice.

Also keep in mind that while there are more speculators in gold, in my assessment, much of the buying pressure has been institutional. We don't see a retail frenzy in gold.

One perplexing item about the rise of gold this year is that other assets have done well. I won't go as far as saying gold is now correlated with risk assets - those correlations are fickle, but if history is any guide, something may well give.

From my perspective, the obvious is that speculators have indeed been attracted to gold again. With the rise we've seen, fasten your seatbelt - the path is not always up.

One aspect somewhat unique to gold is that it has very little industrial use. As such, it attracts technical traders more so than other assets which, itself, can become a self-fulfilling issue.

I'm cautious about "waiting" - no, I'm not giving investment advice and on technicals, gold is over-extended. But if history is any guide, timing any investment, and particularly gold, is extremely difficult.

Applying basic asset allocation dogma, an asset that is more volatile might warrant a smaller allocation - and in that sense, Bill Gross has a point.

I say this because speculators mostly add volatility in my experience. And they may well linger around until the next hottest thing is coming about. The question is what conclusion to draw from it.

That said, keep in mind that, historically, speculators are a part of the fabric of the gold investors. It's just that for several years, those non-loyal investors that just like a good trade, where chasing meme stocks, SPACs and crypto. There's a trend, so the speculator is back

Bill Gross says gold has become a 'momentum asset' FWIW, I group gold investors into those focused on diversification, purchasing power, speculation and central banks (in addition to non-financial investors, i.e. jewelry). Speculators are back, agreed. @real_bill_gross

Unpopular opinion: credit conditions are too loose.

Given that the Fed is and has always been a popular punching bag for politicians, that's not an easy task. But the Fed can help by getting out of political activities. Maybe Waller has thoughts he has articulated behind the scenes, but I have not seen it in speeches.

My own reservation is in the context that we need more than a Fed Chair with a good nose for monetary policy. We need someone acknowledging structural flaws of how monetary policy is conducted, willing to reform the Fed to get it out of the political spotlight.