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ISM's Services PMI beat expectations, rising from 50.0 to 52.4, well above the 50.8 expectations. Hard data improving as Fed begins easing monetary policy.

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Private payrolls rose 42,000 in October, more than expected. Fed is easing into re-acceleration. This becomes the narrative 3-6 months from now.

Thought that was a good DCA at the time.

Fed working toward aligning policy with this re-acceleration. Combination of fiscal dominance, easing financial conditions, and a potential pivot in monetary policy all point toward a re-acceleration phase rather than a deep slowdown.

This is more than just four quarters. It’s every tailgate, every chant, every moment. It’s fuel that goes beyond the field. This is CELSIUS! LIVE. FIT. GO.

Many believe this bull market is an AI bubble. The same people also believe AI will transform the world. And yet, they believe this will be the shortest bull market in fifty years.

Only time anyone has any business leveraging long is on a major short capitulation liquidation.

There is no way anybody should be getting liquidated on the long side. Momentum roller over. Bitcoin bull runs out of the market now for a while and swing trades taking shorts. Wait for upside momentum to return for buy side opportunities. No leverage needed. Be smart.

When the Fed begins balance sheet expansion everyone on CT is going to argue if it is QE or not. It doesn’t matter what you call it. What matters is the balance sheet will be expanding.

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Tick tock, tick tick. Will Fed be able to make it to Dec 1st before it stops QT and begins expanding their balance sheet?

CTM sound familiar?

Breaking! Same guy who said sell the first rate cut in September 2024 still calling the top.

Retail is a massive player and shift in the market today. Lead off the April lows. One could argue it has been the smart money. The passive flows and buybacks are extremely powerful forces. Fading that right now - why is the question that needs to be asked. Anyone who is

Majority thinks we are late innings and Bear Market 2026. Recession calls with mega CapEx spending pumping GDP. Strange nothing about mid cycle is brought up. Watch the Nov midterms.

They bought the soybeans. All CTM viewers know.

Fed cutting at all time highs. QT coming to an end. Balance sheet expansion to resume. Asian trade deals. China. CapEx spending galore. $NVDA back into China? Soybeans. Watch for soybean purchases. Ultra bull signal. Stay Bullish. Stay Bullish.

“The markets are not crashing!” Is a meme born to help you fight the human inclination toward doom. And when they do I hope once again CTM is early and on the right side.

I know I’ve told you many times, “This is not what alt-season looks like.” It has actually become a meme in the space since. I have to tell you though. There is going to be an actual alt season. We are just nowhere close to that moment. Read that again. Nowhere close.

Market is up +1.64% today because of USA + China trade deal progress NOT FOMC. Nice that QT stops and balance sheet will begin to expand as monetary policy begins to early stages of alignment. Risk melted up last time that happened in 19’ MAG 7 earnings this week. Gamma

Okay let me be clear and get this on the record. We’re not late cycle. We’re not early cycle. We’re in the early phase of a Crack-Up Boom

I see price within a healthy sustainable channel and that $55k Bitcoin is cheap. The next guy sees a coming deflationary bust in an era of fiscal dominance which I am unable to reconcile because it begets further inflation.