Nathaniel Thomas
@xwOBA_enjoyer
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College student who loves researching, learning about, and writing about baseball (and sometimes football too). Substack posts somewhat frequently.
Baseball Reference/FanGraphs
Joined September 2020
This is the full introduction to my independent, process-based hitting statistics: Swing+, Decision+, and Batting+. Read about them here: https://t.co/UNaEUT60DH
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Probably my favorite reliever on the market Blue Jays are all in
Free-agent reliever Tyler Rogers in agreement with Blue Jays on three-year, $37M contract with vesting option, source tells @TheAthletic. Value with option is $48M.
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Was interested in testing a couple stats as possible correlations for ERA-FIP differential... Strikeout/Out Ratio: R^2 = 0.005 Runs Scored per HR: R^2 = 0.130 xwOBACON: R^2 = 0.129 xBACON: R^2 = 0.251
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"Tom" Brady Cook
Jets HC Aaron Glenn announced that QB Brady Cook will start Sunday vs. the Jaguars.
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Please retweet to help get us to the #ProBowlVote These guys have been dominating all year long, we appreciate all the support! Nick Folk #ProBowlVote Thomas Hennessy #ProBowlVote Isaiah Williams #ProBowlVote Qwan’tez Stiggers #ProBowlVote Austin McNamara #ProBowlVote
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Tatsuya Imai deserves $200M+ - The inflection point for modern pitcher evaluation. - The hedge against breaking ball Stuff+. - The impact of getting the top of the zone. https://t.co/NncXt2Wc9F
unfilteredlabs.com
The rise and fall of breaking ball Stuff+ (2015-2025), the $40M contract swing hiding in his 2,500 slider sample, and why Tatsuya Imai deserves $200M+.
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Today's edition of Random NFL Charts: EPA per dropback and designed run, offense and defense The Jets are a really REALLY bad football team except for the part of football that doesn't matter where they're the best football team ever
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An entire rotation of question marks and they're spending over $50M on the bullpen?
BREAKING: Closer Robert Suarez and the Atlanta Braves are in agreement on a three-year, $45 million contract, sources tell ESPN.
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This concept is literally just supply and demand. The number of teams bidding for top-tier FAs is far higher than the actual number of top-tier FAs available, so if you want to sign one, you almost always have to pay above his "true" market value.
Andrew Friedman: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent."
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Hanner's sweeper was elite in AAA this season: .217 xwOBA, 26.7% hard hit rate, 44.2% Whiff rate. Unfortunately, that's about all he has. His sinker got torched, and his four-seamer performed OK, but sits sub-93 and gets awful IVB. Big upside if the Yankees fix either fastball
Yankees signed reliever Bradley Hanner to a minor league deal with invite to spring training. Will earn $800K if in the majors.
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Apparently, Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward will turn the eighth-worst offense in baseball in 2025 into the best in 2026.
The Baltimore Orioles lineup might have the best lineup in baseball. Whatever order Craig Albernaz chooses, he’s got Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Jordan Westburg, Taylor Ward, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Sam Basallo, Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser. A wrecking crew.
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Alonso declined an extension that would've paid him $158M from 2024-2030. He said no, hired Scott Boras, and will end up making $205.5M over those years instead. Never let anyone tell you Scott Boras isn't the best to ever do it.
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He is going to hit 15 home runs against the Yankees per year
BREAKING: First baseman Pete Alonso and the Baltimore Orioles are finalizing a five-year, $155 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Alonso leaves the Mets to make a loaded AL East even better.
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Modeled xwOBACON (Swing+): 2024 vs. 2025 -We need to study Brice Turang under a microscope. Went from one of the weakest swings to comfortably plus. -Other big gainers YOY: Anthony Volpe, Francisco Alvarez, Harrison Bader, Gavin Sheets, Corbin Carroll
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There are other players available, but I really don't think the likes of Adam Frazier are worth anyone's time. All of these players are very flawed. I think Ibañez is the most well-rounded of the group, but Rosario has easily the best bat, and I expect him to be a Yankee in '26
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Option 7: Dylan Moore Moore was terrible in 2025, but prior to that, he was a great hitter against lefties, and always hit much better outside of T-Mobile Park. However, the 2025 season doesn't look like a fluke. He traded power for contact in '24, but lost both in '25.
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Option 6: Andy Ibañez I didn't even realize he was a FA when I started researching, but Ibanez has always been a good contact hitter, and plays capable defense at both second and third base. Far from a game-changing player, but a really solid piece! https://t.co/mpi4tE8p6Y
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Option 5: Paul DeJong He isn't a Gold Glover anymore, but he still plays solid defense wherever he's needed in the infield. However, he's never been a good hitter against lefties, and I don't see that changing anytime soon, plus he's an OBP nightmare. https://t.co/8Ld34LzHxw
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However, he did play through an elbow injkury for most of the season, so it's possible that 2025 wasn't indicative of his true talent level going forward. His swing metrics looked the same as ever, but his K rate exploded. https://t.co/4SkBlYD2rE
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Option 4: Kiké Hernandez Kiké can play solid defense at 3B or LF, but his bat has been a strong negative for years, and it's only average now against lefties, who he used to crush. I also don't believe in "playoff Kiké" - his awful WS was proof of regression to the mean.
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