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@xmgnr
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HFT / taking / making / sex with your mom / trading dot com / highly mathematically-inclined aesthetics
Joined December 2022
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Pinned Tweet
i have longed believed that i am smarter, faster, and better than you
is it true? probably not
but believing it makes it more true everyday
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life is a weighted sum of your choices
theres no starting over tomorrow
just the adjustment of the weighted sum with new decisions
most choices seem irrelevant in isolation
but you would be surprised how quickly they add up
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update / hot take: bali is full of broke hippies who use having a a "cultural experience" as an excuse to live incredibly cheaply and stretch their money
getting the impression that these ppl are just losers who couldn't hack it in their own country
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today marks 1yr of new trading firm
after ftx wasnt sure i would ever trade again and seriously considered pivoting
but you gotta follow your heart
tho the road is hard and filled with stress
theres a existential peace that comes with doing what you are meant to do
uponly
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nothing more embarrassing then when someone asks what i do and i have to admit that i trade crypto
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bull mkt even better when delta neutral
all i need is volume and volatility
you make money on every pump
i make it on every tick (except some)
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"traders" talk about mindset and psychology all the time bc acknowledging that they simply have no edge is too uncomfortable
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import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
lets ride
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how you do anything is how you do everything
your work is an extension of yourself
even if you dont really care about something (a shitty job for ex), on net i think youll be happier if you try to care
not giving a shit is a corrosive way to live a life
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ppl who make nye resolutions are ngmi
if you want to make a change in your life, do it rn
not tomorrow or next week or next year, literally start NOW
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among aspiring hft guys (mostly devs) often see this perverse obsession with latency
actually finding edge is a difficult problem so instead ppl focus on something that is more tractable
the less tractable work usually much higher value
street light effect
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ppl have a misunderstanding of where alpha comes from or what it is
its not some signal that gives you a glance into the future
its the right trading params, its right ppl, its the right tech, its the right combination of a variety of "obvious" factors
theres no magic here
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underrated advantage of using python is that the language is so ugly and disgusting that theres no point in even trying to make your code elegant
really freeing to just write the absolute quickest and dirtiest thing you can with no regard to anything else
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instead of doing what i feel like doing, i try to do what the concept of my idealized self would do
often dont really want to do these things
but every action is a vote for your future self
by behaving in line with you want to be
you trend towards becoming that person
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my philosophy regarding risk is simple
make money every day
this restricts the kinds of opptys i can exploit tho
downside: i miss out on a lot pnl
upside: risk of a catastrophic loss is greatly minimized
makes sense to me bc losing hurts much more than winning feels good
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easy to bury your head in the sand or take your foot off the gas when mkt / pnl is slow
however making money requires a dedication to reality
and the reality is that no matter the mkt you are only capturing a fraction of what is possible
dont "touch grass"
grind harder
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got blown out of a spread i put on took a relatively large loss
hit my mental stop loss but still a big part of me wants to let it ride
"it comes back it always does"
but gotta remember this isnt a hobby
enforce the parameters you set for the trade or eventually blow up
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"bear mkts are for builders"
^ cope harder anon we all know why we are here and its not bc we want to bank the unbanked
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everyone is afraid of failure but fear is contagious
in private its alright to be honest with your partners
in public however its a different story
gotta channel the part of you that believes you will make it and convince everyone else of the fact too
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get good at doing the same thing everyday
but do it a little bit better every time
find your core feedback loop
make it better faster tighter
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just as important as focusing on the highest EV task is figuring out what kind of work is gonna sustain your motivation
spending time on something thats more fun but less important can be a good choice if it renews your motivation for the less fun but more important thing
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time to hft in bali
first choice was hk but thought i needed some space before throwing myself into that meatgrinder
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common trait of all the good traders i know is that they fucking hate losing money
if youre not deeply disturbed by a loss its quite hard to turn things around
tho on the other hand if a loss completely shatters you, you might not have the will to keep going
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was betrayed in a particularly disgusting way by a girl
in times like these feels like you cant even will yourself to feel better
just have to sit tight for the negative signal to gradually decay in your brain
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found this lil buddy today
didnt work out but i regret almost nothing
was all in and 100% committed, learned a ton as well
standing on the shoulders of giants
i know i will dominate the mkts
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the ultimate output of code is money
sometimes good clean code will maximize your money
sometimes dirty code will maximize your money
but dont forgot that we care about making money, not making code
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was talking to a friend who asked "so is trading just easy for you then?"
most dont ppl realize how hard it is to just maintain your current edge
have to run as fast as you can just to stay in the same place
and if you want to get ahead?
gotta run at least twice as fast
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"why tf do people try to larp as traders lol, like u never see people larping as like mechanics or something"
its a good q
price goes up and they are winning. price goes down and they are winning
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pretty much my only competitive advantage is wanting it more than the next guy
lots of ppl want to want it, few actually do what is required
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sounds trivial but breaking down the problem of "how do i make way more money" into "how do i get better at making money every day" is hugely beneficial to motivation
if you just get better at trading every-single-day and dont quit your chances of making it go up a lot
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the best way to make money is to be profoundly unhappy and furious when youre not
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ppl talk about not succumbing to life style creep but there is a certain emptiness when your pnl has only a very muted impact on what you do or buy
it all feels very abstract and i dont think thats a good thing
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the easier you make something, the more likely that it will be done
ppl are naturally lazy
incentivize the behaviors you want to see by allowing them to be lazy yet productive
1/2
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mfw my friends ask "if the trading system is automated, what do you do all day?"
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due to the low or nonexistant valuation multiples of prop trading firms and the small probability of long term success,
you really need to generate profit while you can
ignoring long tailed outcomes, your goal should be to make as much money as quickly as possible
1/x
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have noticed that i have much less interesting thoughts (and tweets) when pnl / mkt is good
feels like things have to start going poorly in order for one to really start thinking deeply
makes sense from an evolutionary perspective i suppose
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everyday i try and reconcile how stupid and incompetent everyone is with how difficult it is to make more money
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whenever i have to explain adverse selection i just mention tinder and everyone instantly understands
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sometimes i think about how im not adding much value to the world but then i remember that defi protocols exist
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median outcome being below expectation but long tail outcome above expectation seems to be true for almost everything
life (and trading) is mostly a series of disappointments occasionally punctuated by big wins
tough game to play
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the hard prerequisite to making and keeping money is believing you deserve it
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while I often tells others that my goal is to make more money than anyone else, i think ive been lying
the goal is for me to win
to make others lose
to become the best there ever was
step by step i will erode the competitions edge
complete domination, pure and simple
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loving trading is like loving your spouse who abuses you
it sucks 90% of the time but that 10% thats good makes you keep coming back
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new firm playbook as a brokey:
seed high sharpe low capacity strat with your own capital
use track record to raise money from lps w/ high perf fee
gradually replace lp capital with your own until its all prop
use track record to raise new low sharpe high capacity fund
$$$
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if ive learned anything
its that the most disappointing outcome
is the most likely one
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feel so much more in control with my trading / bizness life than my personal life
making +ev decisions in the former is completely straightforward compared to the latter
the difference (esp with wrt girls) is jaring
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for whatever reason CTAs seem to love going on podcasts
always excited for their fresh perspectives on trend and carry and what life is like running a <1 sharpe strategy
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gonna have to add "founder of prop firm that underperforms crypto beta" to my resume real soon
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as the new yr just dropped have been thinking about how temporary everything is
you have to understand this to live a good life
however fixating on it leads to a bad life
hard to strike a middle ground of embracing the impermanence while also not letting it control you
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winning requires a deep seated fear that youll never make any money ever again (you might not)
you should live in constant terror that someone is trying to drink your milkshake (they definitely are)
everything in the world is trying to kill you
act appropriately
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taking padel lessons for months has changed my perspective on talent vs work
hard pill to swallow but i dont think any amt of training will turn me into a great player
talented ppl over attribute practice to their success bc they dont know what not having talent feels like
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this what being all in looked like
didnt work out, but no regrets
next stop: 9 figs
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fixating on pnl mostly unhealthy
tho feedback from mkt is important your pnl is derivative of other factors
looking at pnl often not necessary to identify whether a trade is good
focus on avoiding bad trades and leaning into good ones and the pnl will take care of itself
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intuition in quant trading v important bc starting from zero (ie i only know what the data tells me) is too expensive
while analysis is good you simply dont have enough time or compute to back up every decision with hard data
instead you must guess (esp as a small firm)
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the amt of effort it takes to manage complexity in a trading system dwarfs the effort to add it in the first place
so easy to carelessly add complexity
need to keep in the back of your mind the q "if trading is going poorly, will i still be able to figure out why?"
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If my ex was orderflow I’d pull my quotes because that shit is toxic af
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good 30th birthday
trapping is what made me rich
hustling is what made me rich
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sounds obvious but the higher your risk adjusted return / the faster you trade the less you should be thinking about managing risk
can quickly impl 80% solutions and spend the rest of your time on actual alpha
no need to get autistic about it when your signal dwarfs the noise
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probably most difficult part of trading for me is the amt of decisions you have to make in the face of uncertainty: you cant accurately measure everything so have to use your intuition and make best guesses very often
whether they were correct guesses or not keeps me up at night
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planning for the future is dumb since the chance of said future coming true is low
the entropy in the world is great, the further you plan ahead, the more likely that work will be wasted
solve problems today
make money today
if you dont, there wont be a tomorrow
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wen pnl is bad -> go msg every other shop and ask about pnl -> pray its just not you that sucks
its just a quiet mkt dw bro
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what are the best trading terminals?
or rather just something that can show my orders in the book and on the chart across multiple venues?
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do ppl who are late all the time question whether they have free will?
if you consistently cant meet simple deadlines, why havent you reevaluated your life?
imagine fucking up in the same exact way for yrs or decades on end
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dont play to win, play not to lose
identifying a bad thing a lot easier than picking out the good thing
eliminate the losers and the winners will take care of themselves
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while youre trading fake gensler tweets im trading predictive mkt microstructure features we are not the same anon
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have been feeling good for a couple days on the back of a few record months but the anxiety has started to creep back
maintaining your edge is a constant struggle
no matter the pnl, feels like youre drowning and must fight like hell to simply keep your head above the water
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imagining joining jane as a trader and your first assignment is to write a 2500 word essay on why ocaml is superior by end of week
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you improve a trading system not by trying to do good trades, but by trying to avoid bad ones
or as tiger said "everyones good is good. but how good is your bad?"
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this ofc isnt optimal if your goal is to maximize wealth
unfortunately am a v emotional person and simply cannot take drawdowns
when your pnl determines your entire mood throughout the day
important to minimize losses so you dont go insane
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when running an algo trading operation, you will be consistently bummed out: the job is tedious, the things that need to be done endless, and the time for creative work limited
refocus: whats the end goal? (money) why am i here? (money) am i winning? (money)
eye on the prize
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in trading measuring exactly what you actually care about is usually quite difficult / prohibitively difficult
big part of the game is figuring out what the simplest correlated proxies
often easier to develop multiple somewhat correlated proxies vs one highly correlated one
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whenever you have a q about your trades / system:
1. gather data you need to answer q
2. do analysis to answer q
3. automate step 1 so you will always have current data in the future
4. automate step 2, so you will always have current answer in the future
move on to next q
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if you dont know what to do or what youre interested in, your brain is usually telling you
what do you think about before going to bed? when you wake up? in the shower?
obsession beats raw talent every time
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HN is possibly the most midwit place on the entire internet:
an entire group of ppl who think their merely passable competence in one field implies some sort of skill in another
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nothing like a brutal drop in bps retained and mkt participation over last 10 days to make you appreciate how fragile your alpha really is
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every incremental change that is made to system
i hope for massive increase in pnl
has it ever happened?
no
will it ever happen?
probably not
still i hope
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i talk about hustling and sacrificing a lot
but a full life is also important
on my death bed
did i work hard?
did i do *all* the drugs?
did i suffer?
did i adventure hard?
did i do crazy things?
did i fuck moms?
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occasionally i think it would be nice to work at a big hft firm. life can be hard for a couple autists on laptops trading prop
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you want ppl to analyze bad trades? make the pickoff dashboard / notebook ez to use and fast
you want ppl to push small PRs vs big ones? make testing and deploying ez and fast
you want ppl to research new alphas? make the RnD process ez and fast
2/2
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the fact that low latency applications are so niche means that developing them is prohibitively expensive / hard
decades of software engineers have only considered throughput
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a greedy algorithm is best way to build something successful, despite it being theoretically suboptimal
how do i make $1? how do i make $10 more? how about $100? 1k? 1mm?
if youre not starting by picking up breadcrumbs, youre probably starting wrong
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