Bob Loukas 🗽
@BobLoukas
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Position Trader, Opportunity Seeker. Vincit qui se vincit.
New York, NY
Joined October 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
The
#Bitcoin
4 Year Cycle Ordinals collection is live on Magic Eden.
Followers of the Journey were given one free as a token of appreciation and to memorialize a journey that has positively touched and influenced thousands of people.
But, What are these all about?
🧵👇
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In 20 yrs, so many of you young folks today will look back at these crypto days and still be in disbelief at the wealth that slipped your fingers.
Do yourself a favor, as your paper wealth grows on cartoon nft’s, airdrops, shitcoins, and dao tokens, keep extracting value.
1/n
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My apologies for mocking those bears who said
#bitcoin
was going back to $10k. You were right.
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A normal $BTC Cycle would have pulled back by now and consolidated another 6 months well under ATH's.
Right here
#bitcoin
is fast approaching escape velocity.
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#bitcoin
is showing us a blow-off type 4Year Cycle, not a diminishing returns type.
Also showing a Left Translated Cycle (top before Dec) is real if this doesn't cool off. Unless we get a 6-month consolidation ($70-$100k - yellow) to build into a super cycle.
Sit tight
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SEC was able to recover their "compromised' account in 15 minutes. Impressive.
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You'll know which dip is the bottom when the El Salvador president doesn't tweet he bought it.
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The final descent.
The first big 4Year
#bitcoin
cycle low opportunity is 6 weeks away. Around Nov 10th.
Patience. Accumulate.
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12 years on Twitter. Never taken a payment for a tweet, shilled a project or ref link. Never highlighted an idea I didn't pay first full price for, with my capital. Free to speak my mind, without influence, & regardless of what anyone thinks. Careful what you read out there!
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Full beast mode.
Bitcoin feels like it’s trading like it did in 2013 on the first big adoption wave.
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Yeah, you know a sharp 20 or 30% $BTC decline is likely to happen at some point soon.
But,
DONT LOSE YOUR POSITION in a bull market.
#4yearcycle
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For your crypto allocation. 60% bitcoin. 40% eth.
If u must, 10% on the glossiest white papers you find, but early.
Trim on major extensions. Buy every 50% decline. Don’t stress exact tops/lows.
Live 363 days of the year. Have a multi year view. Beat 99% of CT.
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Local news mentions
#bitcoin
2nd straight day. And front page news. Pretty much all my acquaintances reached out all at once this week.
Interesting to see that the mania phase has already started.
Have to assume therefore the Cycle top will come in late 2024.
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Heard
#ADA
have some initial smart contact launch problems.
In my opinion, they should have spent some more time on research and theory before launching.
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People thinking Iran/Israel caused a crypto crash have no idea how markets work.
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Crypto is going through the exodus stage of the four year cycle.
Celebrity deals are over. Unsolicited discord DM’s And scam tweets are mostly gone. And retail licking wounds.
4 to 8 months to really drive it home.
A new class of “being early” will be born.
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We’re now casually talking about $billions in flows for
#Bitcoin
. Not millions.
The big leagues.
Congrats to all those who have stuck through all the ‘South Sea Bubble” calls all these years. 🤣
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Not going to lie, starting to get a little burnt out being deep into crypto.
You get attracted to so much of the "radical change" narratives, only to discover (or simply forgotten) that's it's just the same easily corrupted humans behind it all flying a different flag.
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In the near future, if you have the opportunity to secure your future, do it.
It might feel as if that means making less gain (temporarily) going forward. And that’s partially true.
But securing your future unlocks a super power within you.
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When
#bitcoin
peaks ('24-'25) for this 4Yr cycle, I'm a believer that we will go into a very long winter. Probably 8 years (2033) between ATH's again.
Especially likely if this cycle forms as a broad blow-off.
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With this
#bitcoin
decline, the trolls are out.
Here is a long thread on the 4-Yr Cycle, how we got here and where we might be heading.
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If you lost big or everything on $LUNA and $UST please don't despair. It might feel like an impossible task to recover, but trust me, you can and you will. I have lost everything before, i know how it feels.
I have DM's open for weekend, if somebody urgently needs to talk.
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#Bitcoin
flashing a Weekly Cycle top warning. Loss of $40k confirmation. If it can hold/recover here, then likely one final run in weekly Cycle.
Ultimately, a good 10-week selloff would be healthy for 4 yr cycle and nothing unusual. Helps take Left Translated Cycle off table.
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People selling their
#bitcoin
position because meh 'could drop to $33k' when the chart looks like this, and with a possible ETF around the corner.
I mean, 🤦♂️🤦♂️
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First ever mention of
#bitcoin
4 Year Cycle on YouTube was my video Dec 2018.
Now there are 5+ videos a week on topic. With some horrible uneducated takes.
I normally do a video once every 2+ months, but with recent ATH, time for one this week. What questions do you have?
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All month you thought about how much you could have made leverage trading, and you pulled the trigger, yesterday. Welcome son.
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$BTC showing amazing strength.
Got me. Since ETF news, I've been in cash, till today (trading account) waiting expected Weekly Cycle Decline. This move defies that, generally weakest part of Cycle.
Brings into focus Left Trans 4 yr Cycle or super cycle. Promise new video Tue.
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$BTC needs to reclaim $19k relatively quickly (next day or two), to put a Cycle behind it. Otherwise the market would be signaling a deeper cut is required. That's my read.
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I think we hit the extreme sentiment low with the last move to $BTC $31k and it’s turning now. Prior Cycle low retested. Time to turn the tables.
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"In theory", the coming (2023-26)
#bitcoin
4-yr Cycle is the final 4 year cycle of a larger 16 yr Cycle.
That 4th of 4 Cycles 'should' form Left Translated, to provide for a declining (true bear) phase of the 16 yr cycle.
Thread - 1/n
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New 4 Year
#Bitcoin
Cycle video released.
"Thy Strength Befits Bitcoin"
It's public of course. Appreciate a Like & Retweet. Share the link on other socials.
VIDEO LINK >>>
$BTC
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Selling $BTC at $19,000 in 2017 and buying $BTC at $19,000 in 2022 is my plan. Half the job done.
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We should welcome this period of consolidation in Crypto.
Ideally full accumulation into late May, exhausting all sellers at these levels. A foundation for the next doubling in price by year end. Rinse and repeat. 🤞
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$BTC quarterly bars. Now into the most bullish portion of the 4 yr cycle.
History rhymes often.
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You’re probably doing far better this cycle than you believe.
Don’t judge yourself based on the (winning only) culture of social media. It’s inflated and heavily biased.
Focus on sitting in core holding that has performed well and speculate with a smaller separate allocation.
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The next video in the 4-Year
#Bitcoin
Cycle series is live.
"The First Scare"
I would kindly appreciate a RETWEET and LIKE. Feel free to share it elsewhere.
$BTC
LINK >>
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Rates have peaked. The
#bitcoin
4 Year cycle just completed its first 1/4. ETF’s are coming. Asset class acceptance accelerating.
The confluence is near perfect.
The market will test you, often. Broaden the timeframe to weather volatility. Timing and discipline is key
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4 Year
#bitcoin
Cycle video. YouTube.
Thy Strength Befits Bitcoin
Pls share, like, retweet.
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$ETH is very bullish. Spring run into the ETH2 merge. Sell the event.
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All I hear is ETF ETF ETF price can never go down again. Saylor borrowing like crazy.
Billions have been bought, but billions have bern SOLD.
ETF is very bullish yes, but the silly “this time is different narratives” never gets old.
Ebb and flow over time. Stay grounded.
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Seeing lots of “echo bubble” talk lately around bitcoin.
Interestingly, i introduced that idea in my first 4Yr video back in 2018, as a possible event for the “2023 into early 2024 period”!
And talked about it often since.
It’s called a Left Translated cycle.
<Long thread>
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My $BTC outlook. (Long random thought thread)
Two weeks ago, I expected a continuation of the big bull trend with a possible surge to $80k-$100k into a top for this "current bull run" A mini blow-off, if you will. Was based simply on trend following, repeating Cycles.
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Good chance ETH/BTC bottoms in late Jan and is never tested for min 2 yrs.
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Name a
#ponzi
in history that experienced 3 Major bubbles events (4th soon) within 10 yrs?
You can't. Do not hate when you just do not know.
Each block adds trust. Time is the factor.
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#bitcoin
either found it's bear market (4yr Cycle Low) with this Nov low....or will do so on the next 60-day Cycle low, around the Jan 5th timeframe.
Given the contagion and loss of trust with recent events, leaning towards the early Jan lows. Structurally been a perfect cycle.
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I view investing and wealth building like building a beautiful garden. Takes time.
Always be planting, always be pruning.
Some things are beautiful and short-lived, some take decades, all have a place in the garden.
Always be planting for the future. It comes quickly.
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$BTC working on a 7th red consecutive weekly candle.
Which, from what I can tell, has never happened before.
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Time for the
#bitcoin
Cycle to turn higher now. The work has been done.
The scene is set. Will it show is the question.
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A bunch of 20 year olds who luckily stumbled into a booming nascent technology early, mistaking that success for thinking they figured out the keys to finance. Openly mocking those before them.
About sums up the last year.
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Nasty corrections will surely come.
But you cannot afford to lose your position at this stage of a Cycle. $BTC.
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There is a silent yet relentless force behind this market.
#bitcoin
A convergence of all prior Cycle themes.
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More than happy to be wrong on this, but I believe
#bitcoin
needs to consolidate this 60-day Cycle into a late May Cycle Low, before any real new ATH break.
Would be a time to be patient. ALT-Coin heavy bags would need to be very careful.
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Two weeks ago everyone panic selling BTC under $20k. Now it’s going to $1m
🙄🙄🙄
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Wow, 250,000 followers.
Appreciate all 26,061 of you very much 🙏
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Popular topic.
Left translated cycle means major blow off top this year.
Absolutely not a prediction. Observation. Day by day. But not a new concept.
How it plays?
Surge to ($57-75k), really short but major (30-45%) correction, then full tilt to SeptemberIsh.
Hope not.
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Once BTC takes out $50k and $ETH $2k, all these
#stocks
call option robin-hooding retail tik-toking junkies will be swarming into Crypto over the summer.
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Wow - 200k followers. Appreciate the support 🙏
I'd like to thank all 21,067 of you!
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Most people rotate assets at the very worst time.
Their reasoning is mostly emotionally based.
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Crypto feels a lot like post March 2020 drop. Structurally and sentiment.
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$BTC daily close above $44.1k tonight likely leaves behind a 62 Day Cycle Low.
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In my opinion, if
#bitcoin
can hold this range through Jan 10th, then trade above $17k, very strong chance bear market lows are in.
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The damage is done now, weekly cycle topped.
Mid February best case for lows IMO if it’s a price rout. March is best cycle timing for low.
Good to see some fear build up over time.
The idea that a $BTC Week 13 Cycle top seems more than reasonable now. I mean, it's been a pretty great run for a while. But while the $40k holds, there is hope for one more surge.
Either way, it would be heathy to see this chop around into a late March low.
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$ETH held ground to BTC during BTC's most powerful moment.
At this stage of the bull market you have to have a good allocation to it imo.
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$BTC coiling and tightening - building pressure. She will blow this week.
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Another
#bitcoin
ETF proposal rejected is very good for bitcoin.
Everyone should hold it the way it was designed.
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An opportunity within the crypto space is on the horizon, similar to late 2018.
People always look back at such events and say “if only I did ….”
Don’t look back.
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It’s very very very simple.
Alameda used FTX customer funds as their own to play Casino Royale and these “kids” thought they were gods in a bull market and they imploded once the market turned on them.
Not a single process or regard for customers, just “balls deep leverage”.
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Not sure to what extent it impact ALT's this cycle, but in past $BTC bull markets, flow was into Coinbase/exchanges.
From there, it was one easy click to the degen alt-coin world.
If ETF flows drive spot buying and BTC higher, the buck mostly stops there.
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Followers of
#Bitcoin
4-Year Cycle model.
I'll be buying bitcoin (for long term/next cycle) in two equal tranches at $19,000 and $14,500 (if reached) using all profit from sales during this current Cycle.
⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Keep playing the game. But understand the game.
Don’t become fodder for the architects, but leverage them. Stay rational, and it becomes life changing.
It may seem like you’re missing out on gains, but your future self will thank you.
Keep extracting value.
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#bitcoin
3-month chart since inception. Three 4-yr cycles. All three topped at Months 33,34,34. Two bottoms 46 and 46!
Zoom out, let time work. No need to be perfect, just capture greater trend.
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Don’t sell an investment because you bought it cheap or early.
Finish the job, see the idea through.
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Looking over 10 years of
#Bitcoin
Price action, we see 3 to 4 declines per year of over 30%. That's one every 90 to 120 days.
Cannot call yourself a "trader or investor" if these events end up significantly hurting you.
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#bitcoin
is way closer to a bear market low than most people think. Fear highest near lows.
Doesn’t mean we’re anywhere near a bull market, obviously.
Accumulate, be patient, this isn’t the first rodeo.
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My latest 4Year Cycle
#bitcoin
video released! Four years of Journey videos published.
If you enjoyed this free content, please like/retweet and share on any social media for others. Thank you!
Video discuses new cycle and buys in model portfolio
LINK>
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People don’t learn.
@cz_binance
not White knight.
Creates and promotes exotic product 99% have no biz using.
Literally earns billions off retail.
Starts own “chain” that promotes junk projects for casino trading under “building” narrative, while reaps off venture arm. Come on!!
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The level of SEC engagement and back/forth/changes on the
#bitcoin
ETF tells us this is a 99.9% done deal.
Looks like Blackrock has caved to the SEC's demands to exclude in-kind creations and redemptions from their spot bitcoin ETF. They've just filed their amendment. Relevant text highlighted below.
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Imagine being scared-worried after looking at this
#bitcoin
monthly chart. Cut out the noise and widen the lens.
Only roadblock intermediate term is just an equity market decline late March/Early April.
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If the 4year cycle low is in, as I believe, it’s really very hard to miss just how well $eth performed (relatively).
As it gets asked often, my long term stack is 50:50.
(Yes anon pls tell me it’s a shitcoin, because my wallets really care.)
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Latest installment of the
#Bitcoin
4 Year Cycle Journey.
"The Most Difficult Part of the Bull Market"
Appreciate a RETWEET and LIKE if you enjoy it.
Link >>
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Imagine being scared-worried after looking at this
#bitcoin
monthly chart. Cut out the noise and widen the lens.
Imagine being scared-worried after looking at this
#bitcoin
monthly chart. Cut out the noise and widen the lens.
Only roadblock intermediate term is just an equity market decline late March/Early April.
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I'll get hate for this thread.
Satoshi disappearing was best thing for
#bitcoin
. He knew it, he wanted TRUSTLESS system. No generals.
Seeing the cheer for every large institutional purchase, new wrapped products or centralizing custody of bitcoin, all run counter to Satoshi
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