As expected for some time by the Superforecasters and more recently by the CME futures, the Fed paused again in May. For June, the Superforecasters have had high odds for another pause with the latest forecast at 70%, where the futures have caught up with the Supers—for now

Where are tariffs headed? As of this morning, the Superforecasters' median forecast is that US tariffs will average 6.1% globally over the next year, up from 2.4% but below the 22% announced to date. More on FutureFirst.

Superforecasting the Fed 2025: YTD, the Supers (Brier Score of 0.005) are beating the CME futures (0.125). Jan was close while Supers led in March. The futures were flirting with a May cut, but have caught up with the Supers for another pause. Daily updates on FutureFirst.

Thank you @LynnThoman for inviting me to join a terrific discussion.

Good Judgment's @superforecaster panel currently has 54% odds that Harris will beat Trump on Tuesday. Of the seven major swing states, Trump is currently ahead in four and Harris leads in three, just pushing Harris to 270 electoral votes if non-swing states go as expected.

Back from a long weekend in the mountains, I was amused to find these dueling WSJ/NYT headlines about Friday's labor market report and what the Fed will do next. Current @superforecaster odds of a Fed pause in September: 91%

RT @NGruen1: Superforecasters are 66% better at forecasting the Fed funds rate. Quick, let's ignore the whole thing. .

Compare @GoldmanSachs: that a shutdown looks "more likely than not".

Current @superforecaseter odds of a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 November 2024: 64%. The Superforecasters point out this has occurred four out of five times since 1990 when the presidency and the House were held by opposite parties.

Current @superforecaster odds that Putin is no longer president:.Oct-23: 4%.Jan-24: 6%.Jun-24: 7%. With Russia in fast forward, it's critical to sift through noisy headlines and not over-extrapolate the signals, as Superforecasters have done for years.

With the pause today, Brier scores for forecasting the Fed in 2023 (lower is better): . CME FedWatch Tool: 0.14 .Superforecasters: 0.05 . Here's a summary with all the current charts:

Here are the charts for cut/hold/raise for the last three FOMC meetings. The @superforecaster probabilities are the less volatile, dark blue lines. The green checks show the outcome.

Our data scientists have been keeping score of forecasts about the Fed. So far this year, the CME FedWatch Tool, using probabilities from futures markets, has a Brier Score of 0.123 (lower is better) roughly 10x higher than the Superforecasters' stellar 0.013. Next update is Wed

RT @superforecaster: Ahead of the Turkish presidential runoff election this Sunday, read our interview with Foreign Policy Expert and Super….

The @superforecaster pros had a hike for March too when others blinked.

Superforecasting the Fed's next move:.Hike: 99%.Pause: 1%.Pivot: 0%. Odds of a hike have been > 50% since January.

It's been on my wish list a long time, and it's exciting at last to be launching this new forecasting tournament for high school students with @AllDecisionEd.

RT @wfrick: @nonrival_pub is now on Good Judgment Open! Read the newsletter, make a prediction, then track it over time and keep forecastin….

Thanks for inviting me to the inaugural conference! Terrific to hear about so many promising new ventures coming out of the social sciences, arts, and humanities.

Good Judgment's Superforecasters have been quantifying the long-term risks of climate change. In 2020, there were 6,179 deaths caused by floods. Current odds of being at that level or lower in—.2023: 40%.2050: 15%.2100 and if temps rise 7° C: under 5%.