Good Judgment Inc
@superforecaster
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Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at https://t.co/5H8XIhN7eK
Joined September 2014
Released today in 2015: Superforecasting. The book that brought Superforecasters and evidence-based forecasting to a wide audience. NYT bestseller, Economist Best Books, WaPo bestseller, and more. New to Superforecasting? Learn more: https://t.co/Jhr4k35k0z
@PTetlock
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“Short, sharp, and surprisingly practical.” Jeff Trueman of Eisengard AI just finished our Superforecasting Fundamentals online course on forecasting under uncertainty. Get 20% off with code gj20w25 through 31 December 2025:
goodjudgment.com
Co-developed by Prof. Phil Tetlock, this course is for people who want measurable improvements in forecasting accuracy, using scientifically validated methods. The three short modules provide a solid...
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Tune in today 10:00-11:15 am for UN OCHA's "Global Forecast - Flashpoints and Risks in 2026" where Good Judgment's CEO Dr. Warren Hatch, PhD will deliver a keynote address.
unocha.org
In its fourteenth year, the GHPF will take place on 11 and 12 December under the theme of: Protecting Principles, Norms and Values. Maintaining the broader objectives of building an inclusive policy...
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“Leaders must decide, and to do that they must make and use forecasts.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. https://t.co/ndYIkREMEU
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Better forecasts, smarter decisions. With Superforecasting Fundamentals, you’ll learn how to use probabilistic reasoning, set base rates, and avoid overconfidence in your calls. Self-paced, online, practical. https://t.co/WAdZTPDK7r 20% off with code gj20w25 (through 31 Dec 2025)
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Save the date: Good Judgment CEO Dr. Warren Hatch delivers a keynote on Flashpoints and Risks in 2026 at the @UNOCHA Global Humanitarian Policy Forum. Streaming live 11 Dec, 10 AM ET on UN OCHA LinkedIn ( https://t.co/AKFpqufHdY).
unocha.org
In its fourteenth year, the GHPF will take place on 11 and 12 December under the theme of: Protecting Principles, Norms and Values. Maintaining the broader objectives of building an inclusive policy...
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Futures work is most useful when it affects real decisions. Our joint Future.Ctrl work with ForgeFront, recognized in APF’s IF Awards 2025, is built to connect scenarios, Superforecaster probabilities, and concrete policy choices. More about the awards: https://t.co/TfCMYqLDgA
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“A leader must possess unwavering determination to overcome obstacles and accomplish his goals—while remaining open to the possibility that he may have to throw out the plan and try something else.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting https://t.co/ndYIkRFkus
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Do you make calls on markets, policy, strategy, or tech? Then, you’re already forecasting. Our Superforecasting Fundamentals online course gives you tools to do it better. https://t.co/WAdZTPDchT Holiday pricing: 20% off with code gj20w25 through 31 December 2025.
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Think like a Superforecaster® in 2026. Our self-paced Superforecasting Fundamentals course teaches probabilistic reasoning, base rates, calibration, and more. Holiday offer: 20% off with code gj20w25 through 31 December 2025. Learn more: https://t.co/WAdZTPDK7r
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“Pointed questions are as essential to a team as vitamins are to a human body.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. Learn more: https://t.co/2u302PBGnv
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Superforecaster Ryan Adler put frontier LLMs to the test: can they write iron-clad forecasting questions? Short answer: not yet. Main pitfalls: vague outcomes, fantasy data, and bad timelines. Full post:
goodjudgment.com
Superforecaster Ryan Adler on getting frontier LLM models to write solid forecasting questions.
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The Economist gave GJ Superforecasters a full page in The World Ahead 2026. See what they expect in geopolitics, growth, tariffs, and Starship refuelling in orbit: https://t.co/7czu830wEy Track these and other questions with daily updates on FutureFirst:
goodjudgment.com
Get all-inclusive access to early insights that matter to your business. FutureFirst is Good Judgment Inc's comprehensive forecasting monitoring tool giving you access to the full portfolio of...
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“Aggregation is critical to accuracy. Of course aggregation can only do its magic when people form judgments independently […]. The independence of judgments ensures that errors ... cancel each other out.” - Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting. https://t.co/2u302PBGnv
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Starting tomorrow: Superforecasting Workshop, 19-20 Nov, 12:00-2:30 pm EST. See you online. Last chance to join: https://t.co/ouBVkNtMRy
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Here are some predictions for the coming year, from the experts at Good Judgment
economist.com
Here are some predictions for the coming year, from the experts at Good Judgment
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See what our Superforecasters expect in the coming year with @TheEconomist's future-gazing guide, The World Ahead 2026!
In our annual guide, we examine the important themes, trends and events that will shape the coming year. Explore The World Ahead 2026 https://t.co/l2KWBWNJRL Illustration: Andrew Rae
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“A forecaster who doesn’t adjust her views in light of new information won’t capture the value of that information, while a forecaster who is so impressed by the new information...will lose the value of old information” -Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting https://t.co/eTRWeVGGVS
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“Forecasts aren’t like lottery tickets that you buy and file away until the big draw. They are judgments that are based on available information and that should be updated in light of changing information.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. https://t.co/eTRWeVG96k
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Two weeks out: Superforecasting Workshop, 19-20 Nov, 12:00-2:30 pm EST. Live and interactive. Details: https://t.co/7qg3bhWoBO
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