Good Judgment Inc
@superforecaster
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Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at https://t.co/5H8XIhN7eK
Joined September 2014
What’s ahead in 2025? The Economist’s The World Ahead 2025 is here—and so is our Superforecasters’ take on key events! From the Russia-Ukraine conflict to NASA’s Artemis 2 mission, explore what’s next with insights from the experts. #Superforecasting.🌐
Good Judgment’s global network of experts work together to provide detailed, specific forecasts for the year ahead. Here are their predictions for some key events in 2025 🌐.
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“Forecast, measure, revise: It is the surest path to seeing better.” .- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting .
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“Vague expectations about indefinite futures are not helpful. Fuzzy thinking can never be proven wrong.” .- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting .
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“In business, good forecasting can be the difference between prosperity and bankruptcy; . in national security, the difference between peace and war.” .- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting .
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New in our Meet the Superforecasters series! Accuracy over eloquence, practice over perfection. Brett Specter’s advice for aspiring forecasters is refreshingly direct—find out what “competitively curious” means in his own words:
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What makes a forecast trustworthy? Brett Specter argues it starts with rating your sources, not praising your argument. Discover his approach and travel-fueled insights in our latest Superforecaster profile:
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Better forecasts. Smarter decisions. Join our live Superforecasting Workshop on 17–18 September. Learn how to boost forecasting accuracy and avoid common cognitive traps. 📅 Sept 17–18 | 🕛 12–2:30 pm EDT.🔗
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“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”.- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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“Forecasters who practice get better at distinguishing finer degrees of uncertainty, just as artists get better at distinguishing subtler shades of gray.”.- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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RT @PTetlock: Hindsight bias fuels forecaster over-confidence. The cure: Remind & re-remind yourself of the deeply incorrect beliefs you on….
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“Forecasting is not a ‘you have it or you don’t’ talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated.”.- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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“Like the mid-20th century creators of The Jetsons, [Superforecasters] don’t get every forecast right, but they tend to be less wrong than the average, including experts with nonpublic information.” - @BusinessLiveSA .
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“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.” .- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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RT @superforecaster: New on Good Judgment’s Substack: “Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Getting the Bigger Picture” .
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New on Good Judgment’s Substack: “Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Getting the Bigger Picture” #Superforecasting #GoodJudgment
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“Under- and overreaction to new information [are] the Scylla and Charybdis of forecasting. Good updating is all about finding the middle passage.” .- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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RT @GJ_Open: How fast will innovation drive the future of transport? Forecast what’s next in EVs, autonomy, and more in the Vehicle Innovat….
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“Nuance matters. The more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better a forecaster you are likely to be.”.- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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RT @GJ_Open: 🚗 How will vehicle tech evolve by 2025 vs 2027?.Our new Vehicle Innovation Challenge is live! Forecast outcomes in EVs, autono….
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This week! Join our Superforecasting Workshop.
Superforecasting is a skill. At Good Judgment, we teach individuals and teams how to make better decisions in uncertain times. Forbes recently spotlighted the methods behind Superforecasters’ success:.🔗 Next public workshop:.🗓️
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“Without revision, there can be no improvement.” .- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
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