Web Smith
@web
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Founder, @2PMinc . Cofounded @MizzenandMain . Letters Project. eCom analyst, writer, student, strategist, dad, husband. websm.eth
Ohio
Joined June 2009
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Pinned Tweet
Content creation may be one of the hardest jobs that people believe to be easy.
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Kylie Jenner recap.
1/ Used her own capital
2/ Hired six people
3/ Paid close to zero in ads
4/ Leveraged media trends
5/ Leveraged supply partners
6/ Built a $1.2b brand
7/ Now $600 million richer
8/ And she did it in five years
The above isn’t the result of fame alone.
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Someone earned $1.23 million by holding a Cryptopunk NFT for 26 minutes today.
If you went to school to specialize in wealth management or finance, you are likely paralyzed by this moment in time.
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Ring was rejected by Shark Tank. The founder asked for $700k at a $7M valuation in 2013 and it just sold to Amazon for $1B+.
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A few books that I credit to helping me when mental health falters:
1: Atomic Habits (James Clear)
2: Can't Hurt Me (Goggins)
3: The Daily Stoic (Holiday)
4: Driven (Douglas Brackmann)
5: GRIT (Angela Duckworth)
If I could buy these for everyone I would.
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Nutrition marketing, a timeline:
1980s: "Sugar free"
1990s: "Fat free"
2000s: "Zero Calorie"
2010s: “All Natural”
2020s: “Plant based"
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The
@AviationGin
ad featuring Monica Ruiz, a.k.a. "Peloton Wife" was filmed for less than $100,000 on Friday Morning. It was live that night.
Branding 101: "If you’re going to do something like this, you have to jump on the zeitgeist-y moment as it happens."
—
@VancityReynolds
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I used to spend a lot of energy trying to get further. I now spend a lot of energy trying to get better.
Progress is a trajectory, not just a destination.
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The Jason Weaver / "Lion King" parable is essential learning.
Short term thinking is limiting. You just need to do well enough to pay bills while seeking out that long-term homer.
Instead of taking $2m, Weaver took $100k + lifetime royalties. He's out earned his original deal.
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YouTube may be the most educational tool of our lifetime.
We talk about decentralized finance but YT has helped to decentralize learning.
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Shawn “Jay Z” Carter, a timeline:
1980s: street pharmaceutical rep
1990s: rapper
2000s: label executive
2010s: tech entrepreneur
2020s: billionaire board member
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The less you’ve built, the more you’re inclined to critique what’s been built by others.
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The best way to think: write.
The best way to build: write.
The best way to learn: write.
The best way to teach: write.
Complex thoughts, plans, or ideas become clear.
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A number of manufacturers are converting supply chains for essential tools.
1/ GM is building ventilators
2/ LVMH is making hand sanitizer
3/ Rogue is sewing N95 face masks
4/ Flexport is importing masks
5/ Tesla is ramping up for ventilators
The U.S. is reliving WW2's model.
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2010: make a product, build an audience.
2020: build an audience, sell a product.
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The no-sleep culture that you were proud of in your 20’s seems absolutely idiotic to you by your 30s.
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Congrats to
@MKBHD
for winning "Creator of the Decade" in a category that included the likes of
@CaseyNeistat
. Steep competition.
The 'Matte Black Everything' tee looks sharp with a blazer.
👉🏾
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At some point, everyone will have to set aside pre-conceived notions and study his last ten years.
Kanye West did everything that he said that he’d do in creative arts, business, fashion, architecture, and culture.
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When we are done with this, we are going to appreciate so many things that we took for granted.
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The kid has worn the USWNT kit nearly every day over the last two weeks. She's slept in it a few nights.
Watching this global representation has to rewire a kid's expectations if playing the game is the goal. What a time for her to be alive.
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Dave Chappelle went from stand up comedian to living folk hero in twenty years.
To do so, it cost him $50 million and a twelve year hiatus. He's about as close to the Twain-like flavor of art-meets-message as we're going to see in this lifetime.
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If you believe that merit is objective, move to your city's worst neighborhood, send your children to overcrowded schools, then remove the bottom two rungs of Maslow's Hierarchy until they're 18.
If it was objective, parents wouldn't fight for life's compounding advantages.
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And just like that, Peloton is back in the news.
Ryan Reynolds'
@AviationGin
successfully hires Peloton ad actress to star in a "bad ad" aftermath commercial. It's hilarious and ends in: "you look great by the way"
Advertising has been MCU'd.
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It's not over until you can sit on a domestic flight, without a mask, and sip bad coffee with no social anxiety.
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Mental health time:
To meet obligations, I had to go the last 40 days with very little sleep.
My health worsened to extremes. I failed to produce my best work. I strained a very meaningful partnership. I failed a lot.
I am now in the pro sleep camp. Death to hustle culture.
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Content creation (with quality and consistency) is very difficult and that is exactly why it's an arbitrage opportunity.
No one wants to write.
No one wants to edit video.
No one wants to engineer a podcast.
No one wants to design diagrams.
Creating is a distinct advantage.
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2011: A financial advisor takes a Series 63 and CFP exam to put your savings into a Vanguard fund that grows 7% YoY.
2021: NFTs, BTC, ETH, LINK, Jordans, mint baseball cards, angel investing, Pokemon, SPAC LPs, cloud SaaS ETFs. 70% YoY or your portfolio is a failure.
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Serena Williams had a baby ten months ago, it was a difficult pregnancy. She is playing for a Wimbledon final this weekend.
She is the best to ever play tennis.
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Law of Linear Commerce:
Estée Lauder cut profit forecasts within the same 24 hour period that Youtuber's crashed Shopify (and third-party systems) with a make up release.
Media-driven retail is exceptionally powerful. Traditional retail brands aren’t equipped to match it.
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Let's retire the following sentence in 2021: "I'd love to pick your brain."
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Staggering retail statistic.
It took Under Armour 14 years to reach $1 billion in annual sales. It took
@kanyewest
four years to reach the same mark with Yeezy.
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Great honesty by
@CaseyNeistat
. I wish that this would have worked out. But it's all about taking moonshots and managing the fallout.
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A note on TikTok influence.
I am currently standing in a one hour line at a random cookie shop in Indianapolis with four of our teenaged daughter's soccer teammates. They found it on TikTok and so did the rest of these kids.
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This is a photo of our four year old screaming because she wasn't fast enough to keep up with mom and sis. She just stopped and screamed.
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This is great. Whoop 4.0’s circuit board and its “message to Amazon.”
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Three years without alcohol today. It can be very boring but mostly good. Thank you for your thoughts.
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This is truly the Roaring 20s.
People are betting their lives on Game Stop and digital NBA trading cards. The most talked about assets are crypto and Charizard. Barstool has a physical Sportsbook. All sports coverage is now just betting lines. Chamath SPACs three times weekly.
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This seems important to consider.
Rent is falling (YoY):
Syracuse, NY: -15.8%
San Francisco, CA: -14.1%
San Jose, CA: -11.5%
New York, NY: -10.9%
Washington DC: -10.5%
Rent is rising (YoY):
Columbus, OH: 14.9%
Detroit, MI: 15.6%
Chattanooga, TN: 15.9%
Cincinnati, OH: 15.9%
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The great professional skillset of 2020 is one's ability to focus on the work.
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Nike's greatest product isn't the shoes, it's the copywriting that moves us to buy them.
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NBC failed to adapt to today’s streaming demands.
Casual fans would have done anything to watch an "NFL Sunday Ticket" version of the Olympics in real time with on-demand highlights available.
One location, the entire library.
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Books that I’ve found to be incredibly beneficial over the past few years.
1 Atomic Habits:
@JamesClear
2 Can’t Hurt Me
@davidgoggins
3 Driven: Dr. Doug Brackmann
4 The Hard Thing:
@bhorowitz
A commonality throughout them all — habits are formed through prolific repetition.
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A remote work revelation.
Dads: there is a child that is awake in my house so I cannot possibly meet because they may make a sound.
Moms: [three children on her lap] In closing, thank you for listening to this in depth presentation. Have a productive weekend, everyone.
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We need more deep generalists who are willing and able to learn new skills along the way.
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This is a better story but only because it was more of a gamble. "Lion King" was automatic, "The Hangover" was a crap shoot.
Dir. Todd Phillips traded guaranteed $6.5m for 16% of gross.
It netted the then-failed director (Starsky & Hutch) $74 million, $150m over parts I-III.
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All of the people who advocated for sleep and mental health over hustle culture were absolutely right.
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Had a sports parent tell me that I'd be at fewer games if my business was real.
Still processing that but I think that it's backwards.
The sole purpose of business (for me) is to get our girls to 18 years old with as many open doors as possible. That is what keeps me moving.
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Generations were convinced that college was the only path to mobility.
Meanwhile, great barbers are earning $150,000+ / year in the Midwest. And handymen are charging $900 for a day's work. And with little to no educational debts.
Vocations and up-skilling will rule the day.
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If you ever want to give up, consider the QR code and where it was just a few years ago.
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I often wonder what the average person could do with no short-term financial pressure.
Almost anyone could build an empire if they had a de-risked life.
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Independent restaurants should go pure DTC by bypassing DoorDash, Uber, and GrubHub.
Here’s how:
— 5-7 mile operational radius
— insured team vehicles
— in-house logistics team
— white-labeled app
— control over availability
This means 100% of the revenue stays in house.
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The thing about that Zuckerberg video is that foil surfing is incredibly difficult and he made it look easy while holding a flag.
While the world was divided on how good or bad the video was, I was astonished that he was moderately athletic.
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It’s 2024:
— member clubs are booming
— everyone can raise $1mm
— New York and SF are back
— Bitcoin is in every portfolio
— eCommerce is at 40%
— Class A malls are booming
— Bad real estate is repurposed
— Tourism is at an all-time high
— Unemployment is at 4%
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2011: "Software is eating the world."
2021: Software is the world.
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Stress will kill you. Be healthy, friends. Workout more, drink less, sleep harder, and eat better. Most importantly, try to reduce the loads on your central nervous systems.
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Wow: eCommerce is now at 30% of all retail.
Fall will see higher numbers, potentially reaching China's 37%. Why this should concern you:
United States: 23.5 SQ. FT / capita
China: 2.8 SQ FT / capita
We are a landscape of suburban strip malls that won't be needed.
Source: BAC
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Hire the person or wire the investment.
Economics does not come close to solving everything but it solves more than carefully crafted comms or tweet threads.
Hire or wire.
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It makes you think.
You watch someone do so much with so little. They create like they are running out of time. They make no excuses. They seek no pity. They sprint while the rest of us walk.
Oh, what we could accomplish if we treated life like the limited resource that it is.
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This is tough to comprehend but Jonny Kim (first row, second from L) has accomplished the following as of today.
1/ Enlisted, USN, Navy SEAL Team 3
2/ Math degree at U. of San Diego
3/ Harvard Medical School Graduate
4/ Astronaut
He's 35.
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Imagine the meeting. The hubris. The suits and the arrogance.
The evolution of in-home entertainment deserves its own "Mad Men."
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I write because I want to learn the subject, not because I think that I know it best.
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The gig economy didn't increase prices, venture capital quit subsidizing them. What began as a luxury, became a commodity, and then returned up market.
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Instagram wants in on the streaming revolution.
So far, the platform’s best shot has been DJs, producers, and R&B legends. And yet, not one executive within the walls of Facebook thought to send technical personnel, equipment, and expertise out to events with 400,000+ viewers.
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Every modern brand needs its own media company — build one or acquire one.
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Thoughts from 2019:
1/ every business is becoming an eCom retailer
2/ specialists are at a disadvantage, generalists are not
3/ good ads are data-driven. Game-changing advertising is creative and timely.
4/ Constraints breed creativity. Sometimes, it's better to grow slowly.
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Amazon should be running the vaccination distribution and administration.
Give Bezos the contract and this process is done by the end of Q1.
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On retail potential.
@100Thieves
may be one of the top new linear commerce ops.
Early investors: Scooter Braun, Drake
Top institutional investor: Sequoia
Total raised: $60M
Traffic: 100% organic
Top referrers: Uncrate, HypeBeast
Rev Channels: eSports, content, merchandise.
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Google and Apple are pulling the rug from beneath marketers who’ve long leaned heavily on the mechanics of paid marketing.
With paid marketing being disrupted by emerging data-sharing laws, that leaves influencer marketing and content as the go-to strategies.
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We are still praising entrepeneurs for raising money when we should be praising the ones that are making it.
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Peloton has the gross margins of an iPhone, the MRR growth of a SaaS company, the lock-in of a mobile provider, and the marketing flywheel of your everyday fitness cult.
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Peloton’s decision to acquire Precor (domestic manufacturing) and then build a plant in Ohio will be remembered as one of the smartest moves in tech.
You don’t have to worry about China’s power shutdowns or LA’s freight container traffic jams if the product is already here.
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The most powerful person in American media is a podcaster who: loves psychadelics, is infinitely curious, can move markets, can move elections, will beat you in a fight, will make (some of) you laugh, will out run you, and then be at home by dinner with his teenaged kids.
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The good thing that happened, this weekend, was that I caught the moment that our seven year old looked at the scoreboard at halftime.
I've never laughed harder.
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Apple is such a strong luxury brand that they have regular people willing to spend $5,000 on a laptop in 2021.
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Went to a restaurant in Manhattan that only sat you if you provided proof of vaccination.
We are in for a wild summer.
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Lil Nas X is the greatest digital marketer of this decade. There's nothing that anyone can do about it.
He should have his own agency, a la Ryan Reynolds.
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The Marlboro Man (Bob Norris) lived to see 90; he never once smoked. His image, his ranch, his horses, and his swagger convinced millions of men to try it.
Retail isn't rational.
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There is one recurring lesson of the last decade for creators.
You never truly own your audience unless it can move with you. Otherwise, it has been borrowed and every platform seems to have a return date.
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Parent tweet.
It moves a lot faster than you think so you learn to celebrate every win that they actually want to spend with you (it lessens over time).
We are out here celebrating a 94 on a math exam and a 31 point basketball game for the big sister.
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We give Netflix the credit for pioneering native content but consider HBO’s run before Netflix’s first show (2013):
Oz
The Sopranos
The Wire
Deadwood
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Band of Brothers
John Adams
The Pacific
HBO deserves the crown.
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Everyone wants a content strategy.
Few want to create the content.
Everyone wants converting traffic.
Few want to build relationships.
Everyone wants healthy margins.
Few want to build brand equity.
Everyone wants to lower their CAC.
Few want to develop organic levers.
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One of the most difficult and rewarding tasks is to create consistently.
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One of the greatest bets in the history of business was Jeff Bezos believing in the inevitability of eCommerce in 1994.
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I've had this conversation so many times. This is articulated very well.
2020 will be weird.
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