$SPX down 5 wks in a row for the first time in 11 years and only the 9th time in 25 yrs. Notes on chart
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That's now a 5-week losing streak for the S&P 500, the 20th since 1970, which I think most would believe precede really strong market climates over the forward 3 months.
But that belief would be "just a bit outside!"
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$SPX seems likely to finish lower 6 weeks in a row (scroll up). Since 1990 (not shown), it has fallen on Week 7 once (March 2001; red circle). Week 6 was the low once (Oct 2002; red arrow). Small n. Charts from
@TradewellApp
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For completeness, $SPX fell 6 wks in a row once between 1990 and 2000 and it was up in Week 7 (Aug 1990) but that was not the low (which came in Oct 1990)
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Mostly what you should take away from this is that down 6 wks is a rare event (7 instances in more than 30 yrs). With that major caveat, 6 of 7 up the next week and 6 of 7 not at The Low
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$SPX ends the week down-2.4%, just the 8th 6-wk loss in more than 30 yrs
Mostly what you should take away from this is that down 6 wks is a rare event (7 instances in more than 30 yrs). With that major caveat, 6 of 7 up the next week and 6 of 7 not at The Low
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Since 1980, $SPX has fallen 7 wks in a row only twice (arrows). In 1980, it was The Low. In 2001, it fell another 6% the next wk, rocketed 15% the next 2 mo and then dropped another 1-1/2 yrs. n=2
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As of right now, it’s the worst 7-wk in a row tumble on record. -15.7%
7 consecutive down weeks is a lot for $SPX. Only 3 other instances ever. Interestingly, the amount lost over the 7 weeks was very similar each time. (Forward results were very different if you bother to look at charts.) Anyway...rare air here. $SPY
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Worst start to a year since Tricky Dicky.
The worst starts to a calendar year for the S&P 500, through May's close, are:
1970: -16.85%
1962: -16.66%
2022?
We're currently down -19.31%.
< 3,962.60
Prediction:
We close May 31st > 3,962.60.
(Who remembers my garbage points tweet from March 2020?)
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@ukarlewitz
And $SPY $SPX $DJI $DIA $IWM first April Bearish Engulfing Candle in 20yrs. $QQQ, never before this April.
Think about that.
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@ukarlewitz
@Jedi_ant
This is the soft landing, instead of just getting March 2020 and stop the pain they are going to bleed this thing out slow. This will destroy a generation of investors for sure.
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@ukarlewitz
@87AlwaysRed
Remember that huge market rise after the corporate tax reform? Wait until Biden’s tax increase and minimum tax on corporations
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@ukarlewitz
Percentage of stocks above 200 day MA.
5 Red QTLY Candles
Comparison with same March 2008
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