2020 so far
Fastest bear market
Highest % down days
Fastest bull market
Shortest bear market
Highest % up days
Best 5 month gain
Fastest correction
4 months left. Good luck
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First -1000 low $tick since Aug 20 (10 sessions), which launched the 9 out of 10 day win streak $spx
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$SPX is now back to its 13-ema. It’s Day 47. See below
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The one ending Jan 2018 did not go higher (red arrow); $SPX fell about 10%. That one, like the current streak, are similar in that they did not start at or near a meaningful low like the streaks in 2010, 2011-12 and 2019. 2/2
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From a year ago
$SPX down 3% today.
1. These tend to occur in clusters (vertical lines).
2. The first one from a high doesn’t mark the low in the sell off.
3. Such strong down momentum typically followed by a lower close in the day or two (arrows)
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In the past year, 3 more instances: 2 low retests and one plunge $spx
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The circles in the bottom panel show that volatility didn’t end the day of the -3% drop. Expect more wilder movements what has been common recently
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Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) has had a nice run, up ~50% in the past year and ~150% in the past 5 years.
Into the 2000 top, it rose ~1000% in the last 5 years topped by ~120% in the last year alone.
This isn’t 2000
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Via
@SJD10304
(check his tweets), this week matches the weeks of 1/24/97 and 1/4/00. These two charts show what happened next. n=2 $spx
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A calendar week that draws up to a new ATH by 2% or more - yet closes the week in the red?
N=1, 1/24/1997
Now N=2.
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It’s n=2, so anything can happen but these happen to be similar: the prior uptrend reasserted itself (because momo) but that uptrend had started to weaken and shortly gave way to much lower lows. fwiw
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$SPX down about 6% in the past week. The Money God is extracting its fee for the gains given this year. The late 1990s saw many big drawdowns (LHS) and many multi-month periods where are all gains were given back and stocks chopped sideways (yellow siding, RHS)
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9/11 anniversary tomorrow. $SPX up 16 of 18 fwiw
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Trend: $SPX has this going on (lower low after falling 3 wks in a row)
$SPX down 3 wks in a row for the 1st time since Christmas bottom. Notes on chart: pattern has been for lower intra-week low ahead
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Trend: $SPX down 4 weeks in a row. Since Jan 2009, 7 of 8 closed up the next week; 2011 the sole exception. Last 20 years, most of the further declines happened when $SPX under its 200-d
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Somethings to pay attention to next week:
1. RSI(5) (top panel) = 47 - downturns live under 50 (red box), uptrends live over 50 (green box).
2. Since the Sept ATH, every rally has died when 6’ RSI >70. Now 80. A 'change in character' test for Monday
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So far so good. $SPX back to the 50-d for the first time, where things can start to get sticky (circles), esp. when RSI gets to 70 (upper panel).
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Hitting a 1 (even 2) day snag on the first back test of the 50-d is exactly what you’d expect.
So far so good. $SPX back to the 50-d for the first time, where things can start to get sticky (circles), esp. when RSI gets to 70 (upper panel).
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Momentum (top panel) staying in the green zone - a good sign of an uptrend for the 1st time since Aug. WR2 siuper near at 3390 - another good sign of strength but also resistance (circles) w/ more important R nearer 3420 (blue line). Breadth: 81% up volume. $spx
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1. $SPX high stopped right at WR2
2. Still stuck at the 50-d
Hitting a 1 (even 2) day snag on the first back test of the 50-d is exactly what you’d expect.
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With the huge caveat that 2020 has broken every precedent, momentum to finish higher is a definite tailwind $spx
What happens to the S&P 500 when the usually weak Q3 is up a lot (>7.5%)?
Well, Q4 has gained every single time, up 11 for 11, with an average return of 7.3%.
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Likewise: momentum
Ran-dumb:
How about the following pattern on the monthly chart?
Last month: ATH close
This month: new ATH
This month: -5% drawdown at least, red monthly close
i.e., a sharp, fast, drawdown from ATH's.
T+3 & T+4 never closed lower for rather absurd average returns. $spx
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$SPX Every day this past week closed within 1% of that sticky 50-d
So far so good. $SPX back to the 50-d for the first time, where things can start to get sticky (circles), esp. when RSI gets to 70 (upper panel).
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Now 8 of 9 $spx
Trend: $SPX down 4 weeks in a row. Since Jan 2009, 7 of 8 closed up the next week; 2011 the sole exception. Last 20 years, most of the further declines happened when $SPX under its 200-d
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Update:
1. Daily momentum (left chart) stayed >50 all week; 1st time since August.
2. 60’ momentum (right) ended the prior wk at a high that’s ended recent rallies, yet $spx gained +1.5% this wk
Somethings to pay attention to next week:
1. RSI(5) (top panel) = 47 - downturns live under 50 (red box), uptrends live over 50 (green box).
2. Since the Sept ATH, every rally has died when 6’ RSI >70. Now 80. A 'change in character' test for Monday
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$SPX at 3420 Sept 9, 10, 15, 16 and today. 5th time the charm? WR2 at 3430
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Would you believe 6th time's the charm? Today’s HOD 1pt above WR2. Sometimes this stuff actually works
$SPX at 3420 Sept 9, 10, 15, 16 and today. 5th time the charm? WR2 at 3430
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@SPX
back at 3420 for the 6th time. Tomorrow is a chance to move out of a 1-month range
$SPX at 3420 Sept 9, 10, 15, 16 and today. 5th time the charm? WR2 at 3430
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@SPX
Up ahead is the big red Sept 3 candle (circle) when $SPX fell -3.5% in one day, from 3580 to 3427. RSI and MACD are positives
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@SPX
$ES_F at 3454. You can count 13 consecutive green up bars in a row on the 4 hour chart. That’s every bar since Tuesday’s low
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Small caps rallying this hard the past two weeks has led to higher prices a month later every time in the past 40 years. From
@sentimentrader
$iwm $rut
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The same is true for $SPX when up this much the first 2 weeks in October: one month later, all higher. From
@SJD10304
whose followers should be 10x higher
Ran-dumb:
Historically speaking, 10 day price thrusts in October are a damn good sign of even higher prices in November.
Here are all instances of the S&P 500 gaining 5% or more over a two week stretch for all weeks ending in October.
Undefeated 1 month later.
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$SPY is up 4.7% in the past 5 days. It has gapped up 6 days in a row by a total of $12.1, equal to 77% of its gain
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$ES_F at 3520. 21 green up bars on the 4 hour chart. That’s every bar except one since Tuesday’s low
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$SPY missed 10/9 gap fill by 30 cents but hit DS2. 60’ RSI <30 (top panel) and on the rising 5-d (green line and arrows, middle panel) tends to be good R/R during rising impulse trends
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