S&P 500's June 2021 peak PE at 30.8 (99th %tile, below Dec 1999's 35.8 an all time record which would put $SPX +5000) such high #valuation corresponds to poor long term returns - a slightly negative 10 year annualized total return! . chart via @LeutholdGroup

Jeremy Grantham of GMO recently spoke with @johnauthers on the same topic with less equivocation: "The last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market".

ICYMI: Ray Dalio gives a quick overview of his judgement re current #valuation and whether we are in a stock market bubble:.

NFIB small business #sentiment 99.6 - notice the response regarding expectations of the economy improving in the lower panel

"The Cleveland Fed model’s r-squared [based on monthly data back to 2003] was highest at 23%, followed by the University of Michigan consumer survey at 20%, and the five-year breakeven inflation rate at 0%." .

#Bitcoin, devoid of any fundamentals & inherent value, is as pure a manifestation of the aggregate financial id as we'll ever encounter: chart of Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite metric compared to the price of Bitcoin (YoY).

Cleveland Fed #Inflation Expectations Model (1-5 years)

Rosenberg: "I have not seen a more lopsided view towards higher rates/inflation, roaring '20's economic growth. This is as much a built-in, deeply entrenched consensus view as the Dot-Com's in 1999 & housing was never going to correct in 2007" #contrarian.

The Cleveland Fed Expectations Model which he refers to in the video (towards the end):.

ICYMI: David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie on the #inflation vs #deflation debate & his recommendation of long 30 year Treasury bond, potential +25% return over 1 year.

GMO cautions re #valuation by comparing EPS vs prices for 1990's market and today's. EPS forecasts are 2-year forecasts. In the first chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 11.1%; in the second chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%.

Investors Intelligence weekly #sentiment survey of newsletters shows little change:. bulls 54.5% (up by almost 0.9% pts from last wk).bears 16.2% (slight decline of 0.3% pts).correction 29.3%. chart via @WillieDelwiche

NDR Daily Trading Sentiment 67.8%.NDR Crowd #Sentiment Poll 71.5%. Both are above extreme optimism demarcation lines with negative 1 year fwd expected returns.

“Whenever there is an immediate drawdown in equities, retail comes in immediately to buy the dip. People default to ETFs as a way to buy the dip. And recently retail has been buying more ETFs than any other segment of the equity population.”.

A somewhat similar picture via @sentimentrader using Justin Mamis' #sentiment cycle (featured in his book "The Nature of Risk")

TD Ameritrade's IMX (proprietary metric of client activity) at highest level since late 2017. #sentiment

Below is the list of historical 'most crowded' trade nominees. #Bitcoin lead in January 2021 previous as well as September & December 2017:

This stands in stark contrast to the larger survey conducted by Bank of America ML GFMS (May 2021) where long #Bitcoin was deemed the most crowded trade:

With growth and value leading the most favorite:

Goldman Sachs' survey of 25 CIOs shows that #Bitcoin is their least favorite asset class