https://t.co/xDb9nSjw11 h/t @EthanVPorter

When 'When Prophecy Fails' fails

Given the debate about the Democratic congressional delegation's ideological movement--maybe useful to see just how far left Democratic people have shifted in the last 15 years--especially on race and economics. Data from @electionstudies CDF & 2024 timeseries

@leedrutman For a class on polarization, I made this figure showing the growing correspondence between winning senators and their state's Partisan Vote Index

Brilliant graph by @leedrutman on the nationalization of US senate races

In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties. Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @Gallup Social Series.

The recent reversal in Republicans' moral approval of Gay and Lesbian relations is even more striking in context -- it does *not* coincide with more restrictive moral licensing in other areas. Data from @Gallup Social Series.

article:

Cool application of these @electionstudies data in the @nytimes today... but I still prefer the static version!

The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.

Something undergrads after often surprised to find out--there's curiously little money in American politics.

The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters. Updated estimates here:

Rapid secularization of Democratic politics continues -- in the 2024 ANES, only 54% of Democrats reported religion an important part of their life.

Trump's presidency has coincided with a rapid decline in GOP partisan advantage -- a 5 % point decline since the end of Biden's presidency. Data from @Gallup social series.

Might be of interest to those teaching American politics -- motivated reasoning in retrospective economic/personal/geostrategic evaluation has been a stable part of presidential elections for 40 years. Data from the @electionstudies CDF and 2024 timeseries.

Partisan differences in components of consumer confidence have flipped back to pre-election levels.

https://t.co/2cdGeIbMxN Alongside @seanjwestwood's timely piece in @politico, he also shares his data on the public's rejection of partisan violence:

Surprise from the 2024 GSS: Democrats’ support for harsh legal treatment of criminals is the highest it’s been since 2010.

US ideologues have polarized on corporal punishment in only the last 12 years. data from @NORCNews's GSS

Fascinating partisan asymmetry -- huge declines in Dem & Ind national pride since the Trump administration, but **no change** in Rep pride. Similarly -- big decline perceived public responsiveness among Ds, but no improvement among Reps. Data: thanks @PRL_Tweets !