Matt Tombs
@thespieler
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Per RP website: Brian Hughes 200 winners this season
Grade 1 = 0
Grade 2 = 1
Grade 3 = 0
Non graded races = 199.
Winning 200 of any races in a season is a fine achievement but this feels a microcosm of jumps racing.
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Of the many stories at the Festival 1 that won’t get much focus is that the Foxhunter has been won by a proper point horse, running in the race for the 1st time (only 4th start under Rules) aged 11. Fantastic for the race.
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Entries for 7 all-aged level-weights novice races at the Festival compared to 5 years ago
Supreme - down 27%
Ballymore - down 19%
Albert Bartlett - down 50%
Arkle - down 27%
Turners - down 33%
Broadway - down 15%
NQ4Miler - down 33%
What we need is some more Festival races
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For those turning to Punchestown study, you'll doubtless know Willie Mullins is the dominant force - but just how dominant is he?
In Grade 1s at the last 10 Punchestown Festivals the score is:
de Bromhead - 6
Elliott - 9
Mullins - 72
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Tiger Roll hasn’t run in a ‘conventional’ chase since winning the 2019 National - he’s run in 2 hurdles, 2 cross-countries and once on the flat.
If you want your horse’s rating to be reassessed you have to run them in races over those obstacles.
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One realistic change: all 4 days decs 10am Saturday
Many racing fans are at work when Festival is on - trying to analyse the County whilst finding time to watch Champion Chase card is hard
Give people the weekend to sort their bets and you'd substantially increase engagement
If you could change ONE thing about the Cheltenham Festival, what would it be? 🤔
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The season after he first won the Champion Hurdle Istabraq ran 7 times
He began at Cork on 3rd November and ran in (and won) all the major 2m-2m4f races
Hattons Grace
Matheson
Irish CH
CH
Aintree Hurdle
Punchestown CH
He was feted everywhere he went in consequence
Just saying
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Last Saturday Buveur D'Air vs Samcro vs Summerville Boy. This Saturday Altior vs Un De Sceaux vs Sceau Royal vs Saint Calvados. We spend a lot of time moaning that the best horses don't take each other on, especially before the Festival. This is champagne stuff. Happy days.
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Looking back at last Tuesday's Post
Dan Skelton was 100/1 in the without Willie Mullins market to be top trainer.
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Few negative trends for Festival handicaps:
Last handicap debutant to win Kim Muir was in '85 & County was in '93
All 119 runners in last 15 Grand Annuals to have won a handicap chase that season were beaten
No 1st season novice has won the Coral Cup
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Some thoughts on how the differences between the 4 tracks on the Old and New Courses play out, with some betting suggestions & horses who may and may not be suited by the test
Matt Tombs | Cheltenham Trends | Old Course vs New Course - Matchbook Insights
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30 years ago 10yo Cool Ground won the Gold Cup. He ran in 53 races under Rules. All chases, no bumpers or hurdle races. As a novice he ran on officially firm and heavy ground. He prepped for the Gold Cup by running in 4 marathon handicaps in the previous 8 weeks. Good wasn’t it?
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Late to the party I suspect here after a week off but in case this hasn't been done to death:
The position in the SP market of winners of conditions races at the Festival open to geldings:
1112112112121611
Extraordinary how uncompetitive so much of the Festival has become.
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One of the greatest horses I've been lucky enough to see - rated 177 by Timeform, in their top 10 hurdlers in my lifetime.
Number of runs per season: 13-10-12-10-11-8, winning all 9 handicaps he ran in (off 99-153).
Limestone Lad made people fall in love with this sport.
RIP
Great memories❤️
The incredible Limestone Lad has passed away after a long and happy retirement - here's a reminder of one of his greatest days on the track, downing Istabraq at 1/7 in the 1999 Hatton's Grace Hurdle at
@Fairyhouse
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One thing I've belatedly noticed about the Ryanair was that Saint Calvados was withdrawn on soft ground as it was too slow, having been withdrawn last season on good to soft as it was too fast, (Allaho won both renewals in an almost identical time). Different trainers but even so
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A perfect summary of the situation here.
Will anyone have the backbone to start a campaign to kick out those running Cheltenham / JCR and replace them with people who want to run the Festival as a sporting enterprise first and foremost, and a commercial enterprise second?
Is a five-day Cheltenham Festival inevitable?
@MCYeeehaaa
and
@kevinblake2011
have their say...
#RacingDebate
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Going through the Oddschecker grid to work out which horses were and weren't confirmed for the opening day of the Festival is the 2022 equivalent of watching the prices on Ceefax.
This wonderful sport really is stuck in the dark ages in terms of communication
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I've no problem with connections deciding it wouldn't be a good idea to run Constitution Hill on what may be heavy ground.
But please, please, stop describing it as a welfare issue. Such statements are a hostage to fortune liable to be used by those wanting to destroy our sport.
We’re off to
@Sandownpark
tomorrow where we’ll be monitoring ground conditions very closely, particularly for CONSTITUTION HILL, ahead of his intended return in the Fighting Fifth!
Read my thoughts on each of tomorrow’s runners 👇🏻
#Ad
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I thought I had a decent handle on most of the factors involved in Festival punting.
But watering perfect ground when it may rain for several hours before racing is not something I’d thought about before.
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Willie often runs what he thinks (at that stage) is his Arkle no 1 in the novice chase at Naas on Sunday.
Last year - Appreciate It (went off fav for Irish Arkle ahead of El Fabiolo)
2022 - Blue Lord
2021 - Energumene
2020 - Cash Back.
2024 - Mister Policeman his only entry
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Top owners didn't send horses to trainers "who had the best Cheltenham records".
When Cheveley sent A Plus Tard to Henry he'd had 5 Festival winners. Nicky had 60 & Paul 43.
It's because
(1) Prize money
(2) The Irish programme maximises horses' chances at Cheltenham
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For the first time Willie Mullins (5) & Gordon Elliott (3) won all 8 Grade 1s in Ireland at the Christmas Festivals
Whilst there were some small fields so not the full 3 places, Corbetts Cross was the only placed horse not trained by either Willie or Gordon in those 8 Grade 1s
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At the last 10 Punchestown Festivals there have been 120 Grade 1s - scores:
Mullins - 76
Elliott - 9
de Bromhead - 4
Mullins totals per year (most recent last): 7-6-10-6-5-9-6-9-9-9
Willie has won at least half of the last 10 renewals of every Grade 1 bar the 3m novice chase
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Limestone Lad. Much loved but underrated. Only horse to beat Istabraq fair & square. High class at 2m, outstanding at 2m4f & 3m. Ultra game & consistent often running 10+ times per season. I’m with Timeform who (at 177) have him 2nd only to Istabraq in the modern era over hurdles
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There are no 2m chases for Allmankind to use as a prep for the Old Roan on 24 October
Apart from the one with a 20 grand first prize yesterday at Kelso, the winner of which won both races last season.
Welcome back to the there-are-no-suitable-races jumps season everyone 🙄
Allmankind is set to return over hurdles at Chepstow but plans fluid for My Drogo
💬 “He's difficult to get fit, he needs a run, and there's no two-mile chases. He won the Finale there but he doesn't look well handicapped on his hurdles mark”
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7-year-old daughter and I making valentines wishes. She suggests that mine should be that “one of the horses you guess about at Cheltenham wins”. 😍
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In a field of 18 Bob Olinger faces rivals rated 150, 148, 146, 144, 144 & 141 over hurdles at Gowran in a beginners chase on Saturday.
Win or lose the experience he'll be getting in such a competitive race is a massive advantage with the Festival in mind
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Farewell Denman, a true great. Not quite the best horse I’ve seen but the best Gold Cup horse. His Hennessy win off 174 is the handicap performance of the century, giving 22lb to a horse that won Gr1s on next 2 starts. So rare to see a top class horse try so hard. RIP old friend.
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Saddened to hear Mark Bradstock has died
Lots of Gold Cup winners would have won the race if trained by plenty of other people
Virtually nobody but the Bradstocks would have won with Coneygree as everyone said he shouldn't have run as a novice
A momentous achievement. RIP
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Denman's mark of 174 the highest a staying chase has been won off this century, conceding 22lb to a horse that won Grade 1s on his next 2 starts. Magnificent and a reminder why the best horses winning top handicaps leaves an enduring mark in a way mopping up weak Grade 1s doesn't
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What a run from Hewick off 163 in the Kerry National, a mark it’s rare to see any horse competitive off in Irish handicaps.
Hopefully he’s none the worse and gets the chance to run in something like the Grade 1 at Down Royal. He’s definitely worth a shot at it.
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A 5th day at Cheltenham is a brilliant idea. Everyone now loves the 4th day. People don't like change but I know what's good for them. The quality of the racing hasn't been diluted at all by a 4th day and a 5th day will probably make it even better
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Stat for the day:
Since Rule Supreme won the Broadway 20 years ago, Willie Mullins has won 16 level-weights novice chases at the Festival
The biggest SP was 5/1 and they were all Willie's first string (where he ran more than 1)
The market will know the pecking order on the day
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Some Festival reading for a quiet Sunday. One mistake many punters make is not concentrating on which types of Festival races trainers do well and badly in. Thoughts and figures attached on the
@TeamMatchbook
Insights page
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48pt (85%) profit from my 23/4 Cheltenham Festival tipping service *
Thanks for the kind messages - pub beckons so apologies for slow response
If interested re 24/5 email me: thespieler
@yahoo
.co.uk
* to 3rd best price on the Oddschecker grid of a major bookmaker, ignoring BoG
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Re possible changes to Festival programme - novices chases:
It’s vital the Turners goes
Lots of chat re NH Chase - that would only help the Broadway. The key dilution in Arkle / Turners would remain
Ideally we need to speak as 1 voice
NH chase needs changing. Turners must go
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Nicky Henderson announces Constitution Hill schooled 'superbly' over fences.
"We deliberately did the schooling before Aintree so there wasn't a media circus. If he's going to run in a Gold Cup as a novice he needs experience. We'll go summer jumping, small fields will be ideal"
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This year's strongest Festival trend could be the correlation between
(1) trainers who used to train lots of winners but don't any more
(2) trainers supporting a 5 day Festival.
Hobbs (20 winners, only 2 in last 5 years)
King (15 winners, only 2 in last 5 years)
in favour
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Jezki beaten by Hurricane Fly both Gr1 at Leop
Rock On Ruby beaten by Binocular in Xmas Hdl
Punjabi only 3rd in Kingwell
All won Champion
ICH was a crawl (as when Jezki was beaten)
Different day, track, ground & pace could turn form round.
Depressingly negative campaigning
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Sir Gerhard survives some novicey jumping to win the 2m Grade 1 novice hurdle. It wouldn't surprise if he went the Ballymore route to give him more time at his obstacles with Dysart Dynamo going for the Supreme.
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Last year's fields in the novice/juv Grade 1s were tiny
Supreme - 8
Ballymore - 7
Triumph - 8
Arkle - 5
Turners - 8
Broadway - 6
Fortunately it was explained to me that was only because of Covid
So it'll be great to have big field, competitive novice Grade 1s again this year
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Another big race about to be reduced to farce because the sun is in exactly the place in the sky everyone knew it would be. When will racing learn?
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Frodon beaten 17l, 46l, 18l & 37l, plus fell when well beaten in his 5 Grade 1s. He's just won off 164, a tribute to the better handicapping these days but also be a siren call to run Gr1 horses in big handicaps. 170+ horses have a good record and its much easier for them now.
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Delighted to join
@LydiaHislop
& Ruby on
#RoadToCheltenham
Hopefully a few pointers towards the types of horses that are under & over bet in the handicaps
Plus we comprise a handicap patent which wouldn't quite get you to Hawaii but would provide a decent night out if it lands!
"He does look well handicapped."
@thespieler
crunches the figures for the Ultima
@CheltenhamRaces
@paddypower
|
#RoadToCheltenham
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Just trying to work out who has had a worse day - Paul Townsend or the Punchestown stewards. Defies belief that any official could not realise an explanation is due. Paul had a few seconds to make a decision, they've had hours and got it wrong.
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The BHA dec tracking website has crashed. I'm guessing that's because Willie has declared Ballyburn for the Supreme and scratched State Man from the Champion Hurdle so he can concentrate on keeping Gaelic Warrior happy in the preliminaries for the Arkle.
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Given there is so much uncertainty about the ground I dug out the old timings stats from years doing the Cheltenham Betting Guides.
Supreme winning times approx guide:
Quicker than 3m48s = good to firm
3m48s - 3m52s = good
3m53s - 3m58s = good to soft
3m58s+ = soft or worse
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I understand any judicial panel has to weigh all types of evidence not just oral submissions, but when the jockey says "It made no difference, a dead-heat is the fair result" it smacks of arrogance to revise the decision.
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To all the pedants arguing over whether today is the start of a decade or not, a polite suggestion - your new year’s/decade’s resolution should be to waste less energy on such trivia and use it work out what’s going to win the Champion Hurdle. Best wishes for a fantastic 2020 all
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The Bosses Oscar (2nd in the Pertemps Final off 151) is among the entries for the 2m6f beginners chase at Listowel on Wednesday (the race Back In Focus won en route to winning the 4-Miler).
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I hadn't had a penny on Energumene but am gutted. The race I was most looking forward to at the Festival is now likely to be a hack round for an odds-on favourite for the 7th time in 10 years.
Unfortunately, Energumene has met with a setback and won’t be running at the Cheltenham Festival next week. It is very disappointing for all connections
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Stat for the Irish National:
11 of the last 20 winners were born on a Thursday.
Nick Rockett is the only one of the 21 runners that qualifies this year
Don’t be afraid of taking a short price in a race like this.
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Hennessy week so cue wonderful reminiscing over past winners. Polite request: Don't describe in terms of weight carried, it's the mark ran off that matters.
Trabolgan & Denman won off 11-12. Trabolgan off 151, Denman off 174. Denman's greatness was winning off 174, not 11-12.
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Paisley Park didn't get a clear run but he outstayed Thyme Hill to win the Long Walk.
It's been mentioned a lot but it's great that the best horses in this division are taking each other on over the winter
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Equally pleased to announce the launch of the first of a FREE series of digital guides on
@racing_uk
website. It covers Cheltenham’s November Meeting in a similar format to the Festival Guide plus a look at how the form works out at the Festival. RT appreciated.
#roadtocheltenham
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First of a series profiling different festival races, and the trends that flow out of that
Hopefully some pointers in the way of ante-post value before the championship race markets get efficient closer to the festival
Good luck!
The best 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗺 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 will be covered every Tuesday on 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 by
@thespieler
in the lead-up to the Festival 🚨
First article is now live where Matt looks at the Championship races 🐎
𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲: ✍️
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If you're a fan of Monty's Star and / or Slade Steel I would be encouraged rather than discouraged by today's runs.
Given the way Henry trains they remain great prospects for the Gold Cup and novice chasing respectively next season
Henry de Bromhead trains favs for 2 Gr1s today
His horses often don't peak here - he's trained only 3 horses to win Gr1 - all 3 won championships at Cheltenham (Honeysuckle, Minella Indo & Sizing Europe)
That's how good history suggests Slade Steel & Monty's Star need to be
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There’s been lots of general chat re Cheltenham Festival programme - here’s a deep dive into the issues & suggested changes
Please RT, discuss, disagree, put your views forward - but please engage. Hard to overstate how important it is we get this right
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Good news for fans of Kitty's Light (no 35) in the National, Conflated has been declared for the Bowl
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Note to jockeys in the Pertemps Qualifier at Punchestown:
It’s 4th we’re looking for, not 6th. 4th please.
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Flat horse Nietzsche wins the virtual flat race in the Greatwood. Feel for backers of Silver Streak. It must be time to stop big races turning into a joke. If there's going to be a sun problem, the big races must be switched to an earlier start time
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4 of the last 5 Pertemps Final winners contested the Leopardstown qualifier, (albeit last season Sire Du Berlais didn't qualify here,) finishing 4469.
The 6 qualifiers today were:
Dandy Mag
The Bosses Oscar
Unexpected Depth
Mrs Milner
Anything Will Do
Morosini
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If you’ve only got 4 minutes to focus on the racing industry - listening to this would be the way to spend them (3/4 of an hour for the whole show is time well spent)
Top stuff from
@RacingTrends
. This oppressive nonsense that we’re not allowed an opinion needs killing.
"It drives me up the wall" -
@RacingTrends
delivers an impassioned take-down of the 'how many winners have you trained' narrative in racing after Shishkin was ruled out of the Tingle Creek by Nicky Henderson...
Watch
#OffTheFence
in full here:
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Shishkin tries to win the King George on ‘seasonal debut’ today.
Record of those that have tried this century:
5P72PP2P6PU423P2
Of the 5 placed horses only Kingscliff got within 9l of the winner
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Saturday evening is Festival homework time for many of us.
Understanding the nuanced differences between the Old & New Courses can help develop an edge at the Festival
I've taken a look at some factors to consider on
@TeamMatchbook
Insights
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Willie: "Galopin Des Champs was just out of his comfort zone a little bit going down the back"
Always need to treat the master of Closutton's streams of consciousness with caution but that may indicate he's subconsciously thinking of the Broadway rather than Turners
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Notable scratches at DRF:
2m6f nov hdl - Lecky Watson
Spring juvenile - Mighty Bandit & Nurburgring
Irish Arkle - Blood Destiny, My Mate Mozzie & Quilixios
2m5f nov chase - Affordale Fury
2m nov hdl - No Flies On Him
Dublin Chase - Fil Dor
Champion Hdl - Pied Piper
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I’ve been feeling bashful that I was mentally too sleepy to realise that picture wasn’t doctored. Ever since I realised I’ve been grumpy that Gordon could be that dopey. Happy we can now move on - we just need to find someone appropriate to take over Gordon’s licence.
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Fast becoming the best half hour of TV all week. As usual Patrick Mullins is really informative. One word of caution though - re Festival targets there is a decision making tree of one at Closutton.
If you didn't manage to watch the latest
#RoadToCheltenham
with
@LydiaHislop
and Patrick Mullins on Racing TV last night, you can watch it on the channel again at 10.45am this morning or on our website at anytime here! >>>
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I'll post this now: it may not be relevant on race-day 😉
This century 8 winners of previous Arkle ran in Tingle Creek. Only Sprinter Sacre won
By contrast 11 winners of previous Arkle ran in Champion Chase. 7 won
December very different to March for 2nd season chasers in Gr1s
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If the idiotic ‘affordability checks’ are proposed because lay people confuse gambling on horses/sports with casinos - let’s break up the layers so they only have a licence for one or the other. Then bookmakers might start acting as bookmakers on horse racing again
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Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2017 has gone to print!! Right, how soon are the pubs open? 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺
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Early contender for most inane trainer whinge of the season. Frodon won off 3lb higher (164) last year & Poquelin (2010) off 2lb higher (both carrying top weight.) Anyone with a basic understanding of handicapping knows it's easier to win off this sort of mark now. Absolute joke.
“There isn’t a single race for him, not one... it's an absolute joke"
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Shishkin to run off 173 in Rehearsal. This century the only higher marks defied
Well Chief - 176
Denman & Azertyuiop - 174
Was commonplace to run off such marks - for the sake of the sport I hope he wins. Creating an atmosphere where this is normal would be hugely beneficial
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Its not often I look at a 24 runner handicap and think the favourite should be the outsider of the field
#DeathDuty
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Just about every pundit I've seen, plus Ruby and Patrick from the yard, suggest the Marsh is the race for Allaho. It is shaping into a weaker race than the RSA too - would be no surprise to see the classic Mullins late switch.
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Congratulations
@kevinblake2011
who is deservedly so in demand now. FFP was the pioneer of racing podcasts which have been a fantastic innovation. It’ll be a tough task replacing Kevin’s analysis but I’m sure under
@RadioEmmet
guidance FFP will thrive. Good luck lads
Some news for
@FinalFurlongPod
listeners. I won't be on the show going forward. No reason other than I want to change things up after a very enjoyable seven years on it.
@RadioEmmet
has done a great job with it and I'm sure it will continue to thrive.
#greatmemories
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End of season stat to leave you with. The no of Gr1s in Ireland / Britain by month:
November - 4
December - 20
January - 2
February - 10
March - 16
April/May - 24
It's supposed to be a winter sport. We need a programme where the best horses run mainly in the winter not spring
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£3/4m jumps prize money at Lingfield & not 1 realistic contender for a Festival Gr1 running. If you want big pots in January for heavy ground horses, this works
If that money went into eg Tolworth, Henry 8 - best British horses would take each other on & do better at Cheltenham
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Covid and Brexit have obviously impacted field sizes at the festival this year
But don’t let anyone tell you they are the only reasons.
If something good comes out of this it will be a root and branch review of the festival programme
*quickly stops holding breath*
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Just 21 declared for the Irish National (and a match in the Gr3 Imperial Call Chase at Cork tomorrow)
If you’re British based it’s easy to see reducing fields sizes as a ‘British problem’ - this is a reminder that’s it’s a wider supply problem in jumps racing
I'd guess the proximity of Easter and Cheltenham plays a part but for the first time since 2016, there won't be a full field of 30 declared for the Irish National as 26 left in at the 5 day stage today
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Congratulations to
@RacingPost
for a high quality 72 page Big Jump Off pullout today. Tomorrow the start of season stable tours, perhaps the most valuable feature of the season, begin.
Incredibly tough running a trade paper now - no better time to be buying & so supporting it
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Delighted to announce that both paperback and digital versions of my 2019 Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide will be exclusively available via
@racing_uk
website. Looking forward to announcing those who will be joining me in writing in it shortly. RT appreciated.
#roadtocheltenham
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If you missed it live the
@TeamMatchbook
Cheltenham Handicaps Preview is now available via the usual channels
Great craic with the gang, some strong views and hopefully we’ll get as many winners as last year
Good luck!
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Promise not to keep doing this - but we’re in August and all 4 meetings today are jumps racing. Of the 3 in Britain, 2 have w-f-a novice chases. Both have 2 runners.
This is madness I tell you.
Complete madness.
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Delighted to announce that
@weatherbysltd
Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2018 has gone to print. Order the book or digital version via – published on 21st February.
RT appreciated
Before I go and find out if I still like beer…
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I've just finished my annual list of 10 'Forgotten Horses' for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
If anyone would like a free copy, email me at thespieler
@yahoo
.co.uk
Hopefully a Festival winner or two amongst them 🤞
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With the handicap entries published today I’ve looked at when the best time to be betting on each of the 9 handicaps might be.
As part of this I’ve looked at how successful post-declaration gambles have been at recent Festivals
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It’s Gold Cup day & most of us want to focus on that
But if not before, once the Pipe is run - please listen to this & be as vocal as you can in supporting a radical re-write of the Festival programme
The 5th day was stopped when we shouted loud enough.
We need to shout again
This morning on the Opening Show we tackled the topic of the Cheltenham Festival race programme. I couldn’t feel more strongly about the importance of this debate for Cheltenham and National Hunt racing as a whole. I believe change is coming.
@itvracing
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With so much chat about Mullins dominance I’ve looked at the ‘novice’ races at the Festival to see which ones he does and doesn’t know his pecking order in. The results are stark.
Smaller sample sizes but I’ve looked at the Elliott & Henderson horses too
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For those following the British horses dropped 'this season' 26 have run at the Festival so far
Monmiral (down 7) won Pertemps 25/1
Langer Dan (6) won Coral 13/2
Unexpected Party (4) won Grand Annual 12/1
Tomorrow
Jason The Militant (23)
Aucunrisque (10)
Russian Ruler (5)
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Absolute quality from
@McNeill_Family
after Seddon won the Plate. There will be plenty of cheers for them when they get their turn at the Festival.
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Would be gladiatorial if someone won this auction and called the race the “Let’s abolish the..”
Name game: Cheltenham's mares' novices' hurdle up for auction at charity >
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Willie has:
6/8 in the Spring
5/8 in Irish Arkle
4/7 in Irish Gold Cup
Hats off to him for doing his job so brilliantly but not good for the health of the sport
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Plenty of debate about Some Neck after he won the Florida Pearl re the Four Miler, and whether he’d be Patrick’s choice. He’s not eligible having won a chase last season
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Moon Racer an eyecatcher when 3rd in the Pertemps qualifier at Newbury. Qualified now and off 142 there so could easily not run again before the Final given the success David Pipe has had in Festival handicaps with that sort of planning.
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For those arguing that what I write is fiction, proof positive:
My debut novel, Sunspangled, is now available, (link below.) It's a crime story where the detective uses betting theories to catch the killer.
I don't normally ask for RT but please RT!
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