VIKTOR
@thedefivillain
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I write a free weekly newsletter covering the latest crypto narratives : Link of my TG channel below
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[MARKET NARRATIVES HISTORY]
One of the best way to outperform the market is to understand the narratives.
This thread will be used to keep track of the crypto market narratives as time goes on.
Hope you will find it useful :
🧵👇
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If you want to increase your profits tremendously as a crypto investor....
... it has become extremely important to master tokenomics.
Here are the best resources I ever found about tokenomics, served on a silver platter :
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Watchlist :
$BTC : ETF still in play + safest long
$ETH : Ripple news good for all the non-BTC coins
$SOL : not-a-security narrative + best alt L1 survivor + community/shillers
$LDO : levered ETH
$MATIC : rebranding + not-a-security narrative
$INJ : winners keep winning
$OP :…
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I spend a lot of time bookmarking interesting crypto stuff on Twitter.
Here is my last compilation of alpha tweets :
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Watchlist + rationale/catalyst :
$APT : all eyes on it + price discovery
$OP : new '22 coin + price discovery
$STG : proposal to buy $2M OTC
$LDO : LSD narrative + close to August high
$HOOK : recent coin + Binance Launchpad + close to ATH
$DYDX : unlock coming Feb 2
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Let's say you were able to buy $AXS sub $1 last cycle
Here are all the successive drawdowns you had to go through until the top :
-52%
-48%
-49%
-70%
-51%
-28%
-48%
-28%
That's what you have to withstand if you want to catch a 100x-300x coin
"Hold spot and chill" but the…
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Speedrun the narratives of 2023, from start to finish :
1st BONK pump + SOL revival
AI (szn 1)
LSD
Metaverse
OP and its eco
Arbi szn
APT
NFTfi
Curve eco
ZK
Perp DEX
CANTO
Chinese coins
BTCfi
PEPE
Post-PEPE memecoins
Ordinals (szn 1)
LSTfi
Gamblefi
TG bots
Animal races
Hpos10i…
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Upcoming events & watchlist
$LINK staking (Dec 6)
$APE staking (early Dec)
$THETA Metachain launch (Dec 1)
$CRV stablecoin launch
$AAVE stablecoin launch
$SCRT Mainnet upgrade + Secret Summit (Dec 13)
$REN speculation on Binance recov fund
$YFI veYFI activation ongoing proposal
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Current narratives according to
@cobie
:
1. ETH season : liquid staking ( $LDO, $RPL), L2s ( $OP), PoW counter trade ( $ETC)
2. DeFi 1.0 / dino DeFi : $UNI, $AAVE, $SNX
3. Cash-flow season / real yield : $GMX, $GLP, $GNS, $SNX, $UMAMI
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Current narratives and pumps of the last days :
- The bitcoin ETF filings led us above the $30K mark, that currently holds as new resistance.
- $PEPE was among the top-performers : memecoins remain a thing. Watchlist : $FUMO $BITCOIN (hpos10i)
- EDX Markets has a BCH market :…
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November recap
Main narratives :
- Crypto gaming : $ILV $IMX $PRIME $BEAM $RON $SUPER $ATLAS $SFUND
- AI coins : $RNDR $AGIX $TAO $FET $OCEAN $OLAS $AKT $CTXC $PAAL
- $SOL and its ecosystem : $BONK $HNT $NEON $SCS $CROWN $SHDW / SOL NFTs (Mad Lads)
- Winner basket : $SOL…
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Speedrun the narratives of 2023 :
BONK + SOL revival
AI
LSD
Metaverse
OP and its eco
Arbi szn
APT
NFTfi
Curve eco
ZK
Perp DEX
CANTO
Chinese coins
BTCfi
PEPE
Post-PEPE memecoins
Ordinals
LSTfi
Gamblefi
TG bots
Hpos10i and deriv
BALD
Friendtech
Cartel pumps
Rotation game baby
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Post-flush strong coins :
$INJ
$AVAX
$TIA
$OP
$IMX
$SNX
Some of the usual suspects are in this list.
AVAX and TIA now definitely join my winner coin bucket consisting of [SOL, INJ, LINK, RUNE]
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If you need to find 100x plays to make it this cycle, I would be looking for beta tokens underneath the ecosystems of coins that have been strong but don't have a well-established ecosystem yet :
- INJ
- BRC-20
- SEI
- KUJI
- AI coins such as TAO/OLAS
- KAS
- MINA
- STX and…
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Post-"FTX collapse" narratives are anti-CEX :
- Wallet tokens : $TWT, $XDEFI, $C98, $SFP
- Decentralized perp exchanges : $DYDX, $GMX, $GNS, $PERP
Inverse narratives :
- CEX tokens : $CRO, $KCS, $GT
- Alameda ecosystem : $SOL, $SRM, $APT, $LDO
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Watchlist :
$SNX - Atomic Swaps V2
$FXS - halving in 2 weeks
$SHIB & $BONE - uptrend and possible narrative rotation
$SUSHI - tokenomics revamp
$APE - staking started
$RDPX - strong Arbi coin
$FTM - strong again, Andre pumping
$DOGE because DOGE
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You can probably go all in on an index of memecoins + AI coins, do nothing until the top of the bull run, and outperform the market massively.
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$BTC is at $35K, alts are pumping across the board... what now ?
Here is a list of good recent tweets about positioning and crypto trading lessons :
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Useful tip :
When you want to TP or sell something, don't hit the market order.
Put a few limit sell orders below the market price.
You will be surprised how often your token ends up pumping without hitting your orders.
Exquisite feeling
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Best-performers in the top 100 in November :
$TIA : +260%
$TAO : +196%
$KAS : +167%
$RUNE : +156%
$SEI : +147%
$BLUR : +142%
$ILV : +124%
$IMX : +108%
$AVAX : +88%
$KCS : +73%
$SOL : +56%
$SNX : +54%
$GMT : +53%
$RNDR : +52%
$DYDX : +52%
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One BlackRock one-chain initiative was enough to pump the whole RWA category during one day
I have never been too convinced in buying RWA coins, but this is the first time they move together, which is usually a good sign for a whole narrative
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About narratives :
- Most of the narratives we've seen in January (first metaverse, $SOL, AI, LSD tokens then high inflation coins, bullish unlocks, new '22 price discovery coins like $ATP $OP) are getting exhausted
- Main narrative now seems to be ZK : $MINA $LRC $DUSK $SYS
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Current narratives :
- $BTC had a massive green candle week (+14%) and outperformed many altcoins
- $SOL remains one of the strongest majors despite FTX starting to sell their tokens
- AI coins are hot, OpenAI conference on Nov 6 : $WLD (+14% over 7d), $RNDR (+21%), $FET…
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GCR
Cobie
light
DegenSpartan
I hope there will be a time when they appear on the TL again
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List of coins that are either in price discovery or close to :
$TAO
$PYTH
$PENDLE
$SUI
$BEAM
$NTRN
$AI
$WIF
$TIA
$KAS
$PRIME
$SEI
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Full recap of the crypto narratives of 2023, month by month :
(1/n)
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Current narratives :
- BlackRock new tokenized fund ignited the RWA narrative : $ONDO has been leading it, but the whole sector pumped. $TOKEN $POLYX $DUSK $RSR
- Base season started post EIP-4844 : the leading DEX $AERO is up 8x in a month. Other major coins include $DEGEN…
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What happened in the last bull run is that $BTC crossed its previous ATH, and only THEN did the proper insanity begin on altcoins
Look at any ALTBTC chart and they are (mostly) down until 2021 then turbo-pump
During this bear market (2022), I was thinking that this could not…
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📌 [MY MOST USEFUL THREADS]
- Whale watching thread
- Market narratives history
- Essential investing lessons, alpha, etc.
🧵👇
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I found this wallet :
> Bought $200 of $HILO at launch
> It's now worth $300k
> Did not sell a single token
Half chad half retarded
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Are we in the beginning of a new bull market ?
Here's a compilation of alpha tweets to make sense of the current conditions and improve your skills :
(1/n)
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Important lessons on narratives and trading from the last 2 months in the crypto market :
🧵👇
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Narratives to play & tokens for long-term holdings :
L1 : $SOL
L2 : $ARB
LST : $LDO
Memecoins : $PEPE $BITCOIN
Perp DEX : $GMX $GNS
GambleFi : $RLB $DMT
TG trading bots : $UNIBOT
DeFi 1.0 : $AAVE
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List of coins that are either in price discovery or very close to :
$TIA
$JTO
$SHRAP
$BONK
$PRIME
$CROWN
$SEI
$TAO
$PAAL
$KAS
$MEME
$NTRN
$AXL
$INJ
$PYTH
$ORDI
Which ones did I miss that have a >$100M market cap ?
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If you missed out on $SOL
Let me tell you one thing
Even most of the people that caught the long are not fully satisfied neither
They regret not putting enough size despite their high conviction, or cutting too soon
$SOL is my biggest altcoin bag behind $ETH and $BTC and yet…
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What were the best trades to take in March ? What were obvious 10x opportunities lying on the floor ? (Bookmark this tweet)
- Long RWA coins (especially the leader and ‘BlackRock proxy’ $ONDO, but also $TOKEN, etc) as soon as BlackRock announced the launch of their tokenized…
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DeFi farming :
- Upside : 5%-30% APR
- Downside : -100% in case of a hack
Investing in majors / top 50 coins :
- Upside : 3-10x in 2 years
- Downside : -50% to -80% with high likelihood that it will get back in profit
The r/r simply looks better with spot investing
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Some old
@UpOnlyTV
episodes are definitely worth re-watching, and sometimes contain gold.
This was around the summer 2021 and it is interesting to see that bearishness was at its peak. Many people were expecting the bear market to begin, and this is why I mentioned that the…
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Want to become a highly profitable trader in 2023 ?
Start with these lessons from the 4 best tweets/threads I read last week :
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AI + memes -> gaming rotation
I think these 3 are the most normie-friendly narratives, and I expect them to outperform over this bull run
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Narratives of the week :
- Big liquidation day on Jan 3, $5bn OI evaporated but $BTC still stands above $43k while everybody is waiting for ETF news
- $SEI bounced hard after the dump : "EVM parallelization" narrative champion
- $TIA reaches new ATH at $17 after 3 weeks of…
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Let's take a look at a few long/short charts to identify trends and strength in the current market
The 1st one is the "winner altcoin basket" [ $SOL $INJ $RUNE $LINK] vs BTC :
During 3 weeks, these coins have been the leaders of this market, but now they have slowed down
(1/n)
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Spending all day randomly scrolling through Twitter isn't going to give you the most alpha.
You must reduce the noise and only consume the "α-concentrated" crypto information.
Here are the 5 best sources I use to follow the important news :
🧵👇
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In crypto you are lucky to have traders that are publicly up millions in PnL that share their thoughts on Twitter :
@chiefingza
@smartestmoney_
@DefiSquared
@0xenas
@HighStakesCap
@0xHedge32
@AWice
@degentradingLSD
@CryptoDonAlt
@trading__horse
⬆️ Improve your TL
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$TIA
Interesting to see that nobody was excited about it at $2.5
Now after almost 2X, everyone and their mother is screaming about it
But the absurdly great r/r was below $2.5 :
$2.5bn FDV for a major L1/L2/rollup when some vaporware L1s like $APT and $SUI trade above $5bn...…
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Read this tweet, again and again
many of you will be stuck in the bearish conservative mindset as the market begins to grind upwards
betting small until you realize that we're back
at that point it's too late
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I just posted this article on my blog (link in my bio), it took me quite some time to write.
Clickbaity title but it is essentially the lessons I took out from studying the 2021 best-performing coins.
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Narratives of the week :
- $BTC top at $44K and then first serious dip since October
- Strong selected coins post-dip : $INJ $TIA $AVAX
- $BONK up another 2x this week after CB + Binance listing ; "main dog coin on X chain" narrative getting steam => $TOSHI
- Old alt L1s…
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The next few months in crypto could be life-changing
Make sure you extract the most money out of it
Good luck, my friends
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I am around 80% deployed
Half of my portfolio (excl. stables) is $ETH
My 2nd biggest position is $BTC
Then my 3 biggest bets are : $SOL $LDO $ARB
All of this is spot
On the perp side, I have a $BTC long and a $PEPE long, with small $XRP $BCH $BNB hedges (shorts).
The plan…
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Watchlist :
$SHIB : Shibarium launch coming (good short?)
$OP : Base launch sell the news + led major rallies + EIP4844
$RLB $UNIBOT $BITCOIN $OX : relentlessly pumping, clear leaders of the onchain summer we’ve witnessed
$AKT : GPU/AI narrative + among the strongest mid caps of…
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Narratives of the week :
- $BTC back to $43.5k after a dump below $39k. Overall sentiment is neutral, market is calm and slow.
- New coins good : $ALT and $MANTA did very well, $ONDO prints higher lows too.
- $SUI is up +50% this week. It is now a top 10 coin in FDV
- $TAO,…
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List of zk-rollups to keep an eye on :
- StarkNet
@StarkWareLtd
- zkSync
@zksync
- Polygon zkEVM
@0xPolygonHermez
- Scroll
@Scroll_ZKP
- Aztec
@aztecnetwork
(privacy focused)
- Loopring
@loopringorg
- ZKSpace
@ZKSpaceOfficial
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Strong tokens with large mindshare by quarter :
Q2 2023 :
$PEPE (topped)
Q3 2023 :
$RLB (topped vs BTC)
$UNIBOT (topped)
Q4 2023 :
$SOL
$INJ (topped)
$TIA (topped)
$BONK (topped vs BTC)
$ORDI (topped vs BTC)
Q1 2024 :
Memecoins - $PEPE $WIF $FLOKI
AI - $FET $AGIX $RNDR…
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6 fig airdrop season
I feel sorry for the poor souls that have been farming zkSync for months while one just had to hold jitoSOL
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People tend to underestimate the importance of sizing
When you see someone mentioning dozens of coins and he seems to nail each of these trades :
Well he might really be winning on all these coins, but it is almost certain that he sized very small on each trade
It is great to…
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December 2023 : "I think I will just close my eyes and let my INCEL trade run during the whole cycle. Winners gonna win, right ?"
April 24 : whaaaat ?!
$INJ $TIA
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Things I am certain :
- $BTC is at least going to $80k - $90k if not $100k - $150k
- After its top, we will have a proper alt season with massive pumps
In the meantime, sharpen your blade and don't get liquidated.
We are going so much higher.
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You can become a better crypto investor insanely faster if you just know the most costly common mistakes not to make.
Here are 7 threads about the traps you should avoid in crypto :
🧵👇
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When a coin reaches close to $20bn FDV, the r/r of your long dramatically decreases
Look at the local top FDV of a few s-tier coins :
$STRK : $26bn
$ARB : $24bn
$APT : $22bn
$TIA : $21bn
$SUI : $21bn
$OP : $21bn
Even the tops of $APE and $GMT back in 2022 were $26bn and $24bn
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Current narratives :
- $BTC is up +11% and outperformed most large caps after a fake ETF approval news
- High-beta to BTC altcoins outperformed too : $STX (+25%) $BCH $BSV
- $SOL is the best performing major : +32% in a hated rally fueled by shorts getting squeezed
- Polygon…
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'Hey I just saw that BTC went -9% in 3 days.
I hope your portfolio is fine.
I told you this crypto pump wasn't sustainable. Literally a bubble waiting to burst. Take your chips off the table before it's too late.'
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In crypto we are lucky to see people journaling their adventure to 8 or 9-figure net worth.
Great content so study.
High Stakes Capital
@HighStakesCap
is one of these traders.
Many people made fun of him after his famous FTX tweet and it is indeed a funny tweet in hindsight...…
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Similar market caps of $50bn
$150bn sell pressure to absorb on one front
2 coins make up most of the value of the memecoins category
Guess which category offers the most upside
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Strongest themes of the last week :
- AI makes its comeback : $AGIX $ORAI $FET $ALI $NMR
- NFT coins (SUDO/BLUR effect ?) : $BEND $NFTX $LOOKS $X2Y2
- Dog coins (Shibarium launch anticipation) : $SHIB $BONE $FLOKI
- Optimism ecosystem : $OP $VELO $SONNE $KWENTA
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Strongest crypto narratives during the first days of 2023:
AI coins (main narrative in online biz/tech) : $FET $ORAI $AGIX $OCEAN
LSD tokens (Shanghai upgrade ?) : $LDO $RPL $FXS $SWISE
Metaverse coins : mainly $GALA but also $SAND $MANA
$SOL revival, helped by $BONK
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Narratives of the week :
- Winners keep winning : $SOL new top at $95, $AVAX $INJ and $TIA all reached new yearly highs this week
- $SEI went up +60%, and "EVM parallelization" suddenly becomes an important theme
- $WLD short squeeze from $2.7 to $4.6 after market maker…
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Choose your poison among top 100 coins :
- Shiny new coins with a narrative but horrendous tokenomics (>$5bn FDV with 10% float)
- Old coins that look undervalued on a MC/FDV basis, but whose path to underperformance is preordained
Not easy to find a high conviction 20x…
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Good tip that I heard a few weeks ago in a DonAlt stream :
He said that usually, when a coin climbs into the top 100, you can dump it once it reaches the top 10.
I did not have time to check how true this was, but I wrote down this piece of advice.
It could be useful
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Narratives of the past days :
- $BTC remains choppy in its $35k-$38k range
- CZ steps down as Binance CEO and Binance agrees to pay a $4bn fine to the US. $BNB takes a moderate hit (-5%).
Good news for the market overall, as the uncertainty has now disappeared and we're far…
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The current meta is not to long the new coin launches anymore but rather to short them.
Here are their drawdowns from their top :
$W : -64%
$MERL : -55%
$OMNI : -57%
$ENA : -47%
$ZEUS : -56%
$SAGA : -53%
$TNSR : -60%
$GMRX : -79%
$APRS : -73%
$PRCL : -38%
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There have been 5 clear narratives in March :
- Memecoins : $WIF $PEPE $FLOKI $DOGE
- AI : $FET $NEAR $AGIX
- Solana season : $SOL $JUP $BOME
- RWA : $ONDO $TOKEN
- Base season : $AERO $DEGEN $TOSHI
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Customly-built categories but the 3 best-performing narratives of November have clearly been :
- Gaming
- AI
- Solana ecosystem
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Look at this list :
$RLB
$BITCOIN
$UNIBOT
$OX
FriendTech
They were getting all the attention of the market during the summer + September, and they have all been struggling immensely during the last quarter market pump
The new index of coins that have had massive attention…
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If a coin :
- is consistently a top-performer
- has a narrative that makes sense
- does not have awful tokenomics
I usually want to be long the coin, even if it has "already pumped".
Because these coins tend to outperform for longer
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Bookmark this
2023 echo bubble main narratives :
- LSD
- L2s + ecosystem coins
- AI
- ZK
- Perp DEX
- China
- BTCfi
Recent ETF-driven pump main narratives :
- AI
- Solana + ecosystem coins
- Gaming
- Strong Cosmos coins
And then of course, in both cases, there are some strong…
2 clear outperforming categories today :
- AI coins : $AKT $WLD $TAO $AGIX $FET $OCEAN $PAAL $RNDR
- Gaming coins : $IMX $PRIME $ILV $YGG $PYR
During a long time, since the Jan-Feb echo bubble, it has been mainly useless to track the performance of the different coin…
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The day before Arbitrum announced its token launch, there was a spike in volume and in "yes" bets on the Polymarket "$ARB launch by March 31st" market.
Some traders speculated it was insiders, and they were probably right.
Lesson : Polymarket is a source of alpha to watch
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We all know that people like to long $AVAX as a catchup trade after a $SOL pump
But how strong is really this relation ?
Well, a lot of $SOL local tops were right before $AVAX local tops
I did not realize it was so obvious before comparing the two charts
Impressive
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Easy :
- When market goes up, long the best performers : AI coins, metaverse coins, $SOL, LSD tokens during the first two weeks of 2023
- When a narrative takes off, long the leader : $GALA for metaverse, $LDO for LSD
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One of the BEST ways to increase your crypto trading profits is to journal your trades, feelings, wins, losses, and lessons.
I try to do a weekly summary of my trading activity.
Let's make public a few lessons that I wrote down this week :
(1/n)
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Current narratives :
- $BTC in chop territory, it marked a lower high at $67K and now stands at $63.3K. The halving a few days ago was a nothingburger price-wise.
- Memecoins have been the strongest category this week, especially $BONK (+75%), $PEPE (+50%) and $POPCAT (+180%).…
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Current narratives :
- The Ripple news propelled $XRP (+70% in one week) and $XLM (+45%) and they are performing well today
- L2 season and EIP-4844 catalyst : $OP is strong (+20%), $VELO too as levered OP bet, $SNX too (+ Infinex perp dex announced). Also $ARB is up 10% this…
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Narratives of the past week :
- $BTC green candle : breakout of the $38k resistance and went straight to $44k with BTC.D new yearly top at 55%
- Ordinals pumped massively : 3X for $ORDI in a week. The other BTC beta coin $STX pumped a lot too.
- Memecoins have been hot : $DOGE…
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One important thing I heard in DonAlt and Cred stream yesterday and I was thinking about recently is that :
Your trading style should depend on your psychology. Depending on what makes you suffer or stress the most, your trading must be adapted.
For example if you are stressed…
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List of traders I strongly recommend you to follow :
@AVCrypto_
@Rewkang
@lightcrypto
@HsakaTrades
@DarkCryptoLord
@Tree_of_Alpha
@GCRClassic
@art_xbt
@forecastooor
@NachoTrades
@hyuktrades
@supermariokartD
@PC_PR1NCIPAL
@owen1v9
@MrCustomSuit
@Awawat_Trades
1/2
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2 clear outperforming categories today :
- AI coins : $AKT $WLD $TAO $AGIX $FET $OCEAN $PAAL $RNDR
- Gaming coins : $IMX $PRIME $ILV $YGG $PYR
During a long time, since the Jan-Feb echo bubble, it has been mainly useless to track the performance of the different coin…
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The usual threadoors :
1 -
@thedefiedge
2 -
@Route2FI
3 -
@alpha_pls
4 -
@cryptoPothu
5 -
@rektdiomedes
6 -
@Cov_duk
7 -
@BarryFried1
8 -
@therossbooth
9 -
@SalomonCrypto
10 -
@sabocrypto
11 -
@korpi87
12 -
@DeFi_Made_Here
Give them a follow to improve the quality of your TL !
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$SOL went 100x last cycle because its FDV was $500M at the beginning
Your $10bn FDV coin probably won't do *as* well, even if it can definitely pump massively anyway
"FDV is a meme" : well, yes, but ... keep realistic targets, anon
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[WHALE WATCHING]
I am creating this thread to list the biggest whale wallets to watch.
I will add them one by one as I go along.
I recommend you to use
@DeBankDeFi
to analyze the wallets in detail.
🧵👇
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Narratives of the week :
- Alt L1s : $SOL reached a new yearly high at $125. It looks like a local top for some time. Many other alt L1s followed and performed well : $SEI, $NEAR, $BNB
- ETHBTC finally showing strength : all the $ETH beta coins pumped, and the best performers…
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Unsurprisingly, AI and memecoins are the 2 categories that bounce the most post-dip.
They have also been the two strongest narratives in the past week.
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"He who chases two rabbits catches neither"
When the market is this hot, you will feel fomo constantly because so many altcoins are pumping across the board
Calm down
You don't have to catch them all, and most likely your profits will be decreased if you try to do it
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If you missed the memecoin mania in Feb-March, it is probably a good time to scale into your high-conviction memecoins now
You can also think about the very low market cap ones that have the potential to go 10x-50x and that you can accumulate during this ‘calm’ period
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$BTC reached almost $74k last week but was strongly rejected from there, and this marked the first change in polarity on BTC chart since early February. We have all been conditioned to blindly buy every dip and liquidation cascade, but this time we are not being rewarded for…
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Narratives of the week :
- All green across the board : $BTC went straight from $43k to $52k without barely any dip. BTC.D is going up too, and $ETH is on par with BTC
- Gaming has been one of the hottest sectors, $MAVIA 4x helped getting attention. Also : $BEAM $SUPER $PRIME…
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