Jeff Park
@dgt10011
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Head of Alpha Strategies @BitwiseInvest. Radical Portfolio Theory™ CIO. Riverian purveyor of exotic goods & esoteric services. ex-@morganstanley @stanford. NFA
Joined March 2009
If you’re bookmarking one investment guide for the decades to come, make it this one. Five minutes to rewire your mindset—and you’ll never see investing the same again. Revisit after the election; it’ll hit even harder. Here’s the grand finale: Part III: The Radical Portfolio
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This is the only thing you need to read about tariffs to understand Bitcoin for 2025. This is undoubtedly my highest conviction macro trade for the year: Plaza Accord 2.0 is coming. Bookmark this and revisit as the financial war unravels sending Bitcoin violently higher.
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You simply have not yet grasped how amazing a sustained tariff war is going to be for Bitcoin in the long run.
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The fact that people are passionately talking about a Fort Knox audit means Bitcoin already won. The end.
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If there were one thing to read today re the game-changing nature of Bitcoin ETF options, read (and bookmark) this one for 2025 - it's going to be wild.
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Huge political miscalculation by Trump in underestimating just how crucial it was for the Strategic Reserve to focus solely on Bitcoin. Sad!.
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I truly worry that theres not enough time left for most to grasp that when the next violent run-up for BTC happens it will be so generationally scarring that anyone who missed the boat will turn against it forever. Stack your options now before it’s too late! Printer is coming.
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As $MSTR officially enters the NDX 100 today, here is my 1-page executive summary on the "Theory of MicroStrategy" and how to profit off of the unstoppable hyperfinancialization of finance. The trade of the decade is just getting started. Buckle up.
$MSTR BTC beta over 1y= 1.5.since 01/01/24= 2.since 03/01/24= 3. Given D/E at .1, absurd moves without some infinite reflexivity in the capital structure. MSTR 150% IV = 9.4% implied daily move. Is MSTR 0 ⅝ 03/15/30 is trading 50-80 vol pts cheaper?
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Something big is coming in 48 hours. 👀. MSTR’s finest—this one’s for you. Don’t blink. 🚀.
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Why are so many random countries offering 0% capital gains tax on crypto?. It’s because they know this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become the next Switzerland, Singapore, Cayman. The prize is infinite capital.
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Japan’s lost decades birthed @SoftBank. Dollar hegemony birthed @Tether_to. Now, these two misunderstood forces in global finance are aligning. Not just crypto. Not just macro. A full system redesign—with Bitcoin at the core. The biggest story no one’s talking about 👇
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higher chance bitcoin survives over the dollar in our lifetime after today. first time the thought hit me and didn’t feel like theory but an actual truth to grapple with.
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It’s surprising how many people overlooked the most important thing @DavidSacks said yesterday about stablecoins:. “Stablecoin demand could lower long-term interest rates.”. That’s the real takeaway. Fiscal dominance is unstoppable and stablecoins will be America’s new UST.
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Never forget: it’s not Bitcoin that needs Trump—it’s Trump that needs Bitcoin. Never mistake who holds the real power.
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Listen I represent a premier crypto firm that manages the worlds largest index fund, and I’m telling you that Bitcoin should be the only strategic reserve asset. what else do you need to know.
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I’ve seen this movie too many times. People wish for lower prices. When they get them, they lose faith and find new reasons to doubt. Then it rips. By the time they convince themselves to buy, it’s already at new ATHs. Losers wait for confirmation while winners act before it.
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The biggest single position in Paul Tudor Jones portfolio is Bitcoin. That’s all you need to know.
🚨 13F Filing Update 🚨. Notable holdings from BlackRock's bitcoin ETF as of their latest filings (Dec 31):. - Goldman Sachs: 24,077,861 shares worth $1.35B (+89% increase). - Millennium Mgmt: 23,498,001 shares worth $1.32B (+116% increase). - Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund:.
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As Jamie Dimon once again claims Bitcoin is only good for criminal activities, let’s not forget that Jeffrey Epstein’s bank of choice was JPMorgan, which processed over $1 billion for him across 16 years.
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$MSTR is not issuing 10 billion shares to buy $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin. I can’t believe I’m tweeting this on Christmas Eve.
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For my mobile readers: . To understand tariffs today, there are two contexts you have to frame the conversation in: 1) the curse of the Triffin dilemma, and 2) Trump’s personal goals. By analyzing both, the end game becomes clear: tariffs might be just a temporary tool, but the.
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IBIT Options Trading Recap!. Today marks the historic Day 1 of BTC ETF options launch. It did not disappoint, with over $1.86Bn in notional traded! There were some notable takeaways in my opinion, so here is a quick thread on the Top 10 Most Interesting Observations I made 👇.
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US: we reached a trade deal . CHINA: we agreed on establishing rules for future engagement . The widest bid/offer the likes of which you have never seen.
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btc breaks 100k. white smoke from vatican roof. has there ever been a greater sign.
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Guys do you remember last time what happened to BTC when $1000 randomly showed up in your mailbox?. Now do $5000.
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@zackvoell They call it a strategic reserve but who the hell knows . You can’t make this up.
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MicroStrategy’s unorthodox capital strategy now includes preferred equity: $STRK. It’s a bold play for the holy grail: to harness $MSTR volatility w/o dilution. Whether it succeeds depends on time horizon. Here’s my theory—and why I’m bullish on STRK (hint: it’s less about BTC):
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The idea of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve happening in 2025 is less than a 10% chance event. That’s the only math in which Bitcoin can hit $1mm+ in 2025 when it happens.
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BlackRock ditching greenwashed ESG funds and adding Bitcoin to its model portfolio is all the proof I need to know that the world is, after years of delusion and deception, at last finally–. HEALING.
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Trump is fuming right now because Bessent gave him “bad advice”. Miran will take advantage of situation to reinsert conditional bilateralism. Market will crap out. Fed will be forced to play the tiles. US will realize OMO/TGA not enough to defend 30y. Plaza Accord 2.0. BTC rips.
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How the political theatre of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve mirage set us up for Bitcoin’s fastest drawdown, and why the real trade that wins next lies in regulated leverage on the most apolitically constrained commodity–. Position yourself soon before it's too late 👇
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BESSENT: HAD A CONSTRUCTIVE MEETING WITH FED'S POWELL. I wonder what's next.
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the world has NO IDEA how much TALENT is coming from every direction, every jurisdiction, every creed to reshape the order of gold and gods via HYPERFINANCIALIZATION OF BITCOIN.
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As someone who has pitched Bitcoin for nearly a decade, let me make one thing clear from an institutional investment manager’s perspective: Bitcoin has never been about the yield. Think about it. This week, you had the choice between the MSTR preferred at 8% or the JPM preferred.
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SoftBank and Tether have potentially formed the ultimate “exorbitant privilege” joint venture— . a move so wild you can’t begin to fathom how it will supercharge the dollar export machine in a positive feedback loop of the existing global carry system.
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Next time you meet someone who acquired BTC in 2012 and held through every cycle, remember it wasn’t just “luck” or “being early.” . Memorialize this feeling. Because this is the easiest bear market yet. Pay attention to the pros, not the doomsayers trying to prove a small point.
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Honestly, I’m bummed Bitcoin hit $100K so fast—no time for the average person to pull off the “Jeffy Criterion.”. But now I’m more convinced than ever: the relentless BTC bid is unstoppable. Everyone just knows, even if they won’t say it out loud.
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World is literally on the brink of max chaos (tariff, debt ceiling, deglobalization) and max retardation (unprecedented tax cut, imminent YCC, gold run tail risk)—. And BTC IV percentile is lowest all year and you dont see this generational opportunity so no we are not the same.
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At this stage, everyone needs to own at least $34,065 worth of $MSTR if you want the ability to occasionally earn exceptional yield on top. Consider it a buy-in.
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Just listened virtually to Saylor's closing remarks with the indomitable @MSTRTrueNorth team, and there was a section that really spoke to me–. He mentioned how there are plenty of people who are angry at Bitcoin and want to short it, and that he would rather it be his stock that.
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1/ As game theory intensifies, I’m *officially* going on the record with my mental model for how to think about BTC sovereign adoption by nation-states:. This is why I believe Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey are next—and why El Salvador was among the first cc: @Dennis_Porter_
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SEC approved NYSE Bitcoin ETF options! 🔥. Based on interactions from many informed investors on my original post, I compiled the most common questions to go deeper on why I believe Bitcoin ETF options are truly game-changing. Get on board and HODL tight!. Here are the top three:
If there were one thing to read today re the game-changing nature of Bitcoin ETF options, read (and bookmark) this one for 2025 - it's going to be wild.
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I DON'T WANT TO MAKE MARKET CALLS BUT I THINK THE VIX HAS PEAKED - BESSENT. Alright equity vigilantes we ride at dawn.
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People arguing that $MSFT shouldn’t buy Bitcoin for their balance sheet, saying it distracts from their core business, miss a key understanding of modern-day equity:. Even a modest BTC allocation acts like golden armor, far more powerful than any financial engineering available.
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This could very well be the most productive first week of any presidency in American history.
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As much as I support it in the long run, here’s the #1 reason we need to slow down and temper expectations on the BTC Strategic Reserve (BSR). I’ve always said that “there will be signs” when the BSR can happen because it requires multilateral cooperation with our trade.
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I’m counting down the days until a logistical disaster (or outright fraud) in the physical delivery of these assets shatters the faith of even the most devout gold believers, driving them straight into Bitcoin’s arms.
BARRICK GOLD CEO: GOLD BECOMING RESERVE CURRENCY FOR CENTRAL BANKS.
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Never forget what this movement is ultimately all about.
The DOJ just argued that your money isn’t actually property—so the government can take it at will. If that sounds insane, it’s because it is. A federal court will decide if this madness stands.
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Has there ever been an accounting standard change in history that led to a $10+ billion positive restatement of retained earnings? The answer is no. It’s like a reverse Enron—cleaner books, more transparent, fairer standard. That’s my take on today’s WSJ hit piece on $MSTR.
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@RayDalio It’s amazing to see @RayDalio explicitly talk about what we bitcoiners knew all along would be the end game, but the reason it is so shocking is because Ray absolutely adored China for years—which can only mean one thing: . The dedollarization threat is nearer than you and I know.
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Without exaggeration, this is the best thing that could have happened to crypto in the second half of the year. We’re on the verge of witnessing the most extraordinary upside ‘vol of vol’ in financial history. It’s going to be so unbelievably fantastic.
[🌲] SEC APPROVES OPTIONS FOR BITCOIN ETFS.
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Korea’s upcoming election is now between the first pro-Bitcoin president ever in Asia vs. a legitimate communist. The stakes for the entire world order could not be higher. Bitcoin MUST win.
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What’s so awe-inspiring about @SenLummis’ plan to hold BTC for 20 years is that she’ll be 90 at the earliest by the time the U.S. even has a chance to monetize it. We don't have enough resolute politicians who truly think on behalf of the future generation like this. Inspiring.
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BESSENT: WE'RE SET ON BRINGING INTEREST RATES DOWN . Who’s fed chairman now.
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This is my favorite photo from the White House Crypto Summit. What most people don’t see—especially in this industry where public stages are often dominated by long tables of men (as we just saw on Friday)—is the brilliant, fierce, and principled women working behind the scenes,
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Market can’t even rise with lower inflation now and you’re still bullish.
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FEDERAL RESERVE ‘ABSOLUTELY’ READY TO HELP STABILISE MARKET IF NEEDED, TOP OFFICIAL SAYS
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will be an unpopular opinion that i don't think we are out the woods yet. with what irreversibly happened with weakened yuan now exporting deflation + 10% tariff creating growth drag, the net outcome is still negative for risk assets especially if 10y stays above 4% (which is.
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$MSTR had a mere $1.3B market cap when it started stacking BTC. $GME is starting 10x bigger—and I’d bet this will hit even harder than the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, with real follow-through. Just wait for it.
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The greatest myth of the banking industry is the idea that somehow your deposits are 100% 1:1 backed. They are not. That’s why they hate stablecoins. Simple.
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NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealised gains for Bitcoin and crypto.
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The institutions are coming. They just came for $MSTR instead.
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Perhaps KYC, in its current state of antiquity, isn’t protection at all—but the risk vector itself.
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I’ll absolutely give Saylor credit for one of his many gravity-defying feats—. MSTX/MSTU keep raising AUM even as MSTR weathers historic drawdowns and extreme volatility. No stock has ever thrived like this. MSTR bulls are just built different. Balls of steel. Hearts of orange.
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Im going to let you in on a little secret from my primary field experience on how the BTC pitch works–. it goes without saying that i am still very long term bullish BTC. Yet Ive pitched bitcoin to countless pension CIOs over the years (almost half a decade) and combined with my.
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The pace of change in DC's crypto policy might catch everyone off guard but not in the way they expect. While many overestimate how quickly the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve will take shape, they’re overlooking how rapidly the US is moving on stablecoins. The story is stablecoins.
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MicroStrategy is mastering the art of external financing arbitrage to amass Bitcoin. But one day, that well will run dry. When it does, MicroStrategy must pivot to internal financing arbitrage—leveraging its Bitcoin for the greater community. It will need a crypto-native CIO.
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Buying this chart is buying Bitcoin. You just don’t know it yet. But you will. Trump will make sure of it.
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If being popular was my goal, I’d jump on the cheerleading bandwagon for the announced strategic reserve as a game-changer like everyone else. Of course I am thrilled at the idea of a strategic reserve in the US where bitcoin is finally being recognized. But as someone who at.
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You cant understand $MSTR w/o understanding the below chart: the asymptotic gamma flip. At some deterministic point, it's "cheapness" at an extreme level is paradoxically what will make it very "rich". The path, and the speed along the way, is everything. Still early. Higher.
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Stop taking leverage to go long you idiots . Do some work and study the order book for once.
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Equity investors ask what could go right. Credit investors ask what might go wrong. Bitcoin investors already know how it ends, and they’re just waiting for everyone else to ask the right questions.
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So uh whatever happened to the Fort Knox audit or did that get buried in the vault.
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Two truths:. 1. Bitcoin has no gravity. 2. Financial repression creates leverage. By the transitive property, we arrive to the third:. $MSTR has no ceiling.
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We are definitely going to hit $100k by the end of the year. It’s just math seriously.
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at this stage i think we go lower before we break new highs. i always hope im wrong but thats the lonely and thankless business of alpha which you follow me for.
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When you win:. Senate.House.Supreme Court.Electoral College.Popular Vote. This is what we call 天命 or 천명. “Mandate of Heaven”.
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$MSTR sold off this week due to the double hit of BTC falling and rates rising—this should not be a surprise to anyone. What is surprising to me though is the delay in monetizing the converts via issuance or retirement. Though the trade isn’t dead by any means, it’s still a.
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The story of bitcoin in 2025 will be the same as it was in 2024. Adoption will be led by ETFs and corporates. But the buyers have just gotten bigger. The balance sheets have just gotten hungrier. The supply has gotten tighter. And so the stakes have gotten existential.
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This is probably the best contrarian macro call I made last summer (besides 92k BTC px target with Trump win). Believe me when I say tariffs are good for Bitcoin.
2y10y narrowing out of inversion via front end- . But Trump also likes tax cuts and tariffs. Think back end will also have to start pricing revolts. Could escape inversion quickly after two long years
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$MSTR is the only trade in the world that is simultaneously long global carry and short global carry. A valuable thing that represents pure financialization of the hardest asset in the world, capitalizing on both global liquidity and scarcity. 60/40 in one. Don’t fade @saylor.
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what a coup for coinbase. might be the best 'value' deal in crypto ive ever seen. what a coup for the USA.
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BESSENT: THERE'S NO TRUMP PUT, BUT THERE'S TRUMP CALL UPSIDE. Translation: Trump will let market implode followed by the biggest pump the world has ever seen.
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