Taha Ahmed
@tahaahmed
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Fractional CFO/CSO services focused on strategic finance, M&A, and value creation. Ex @GoldmanSachs & @Forbes. Tweets: Tech, Biz, Macro & Crypto.
Joined April 2009
So, you want to grow and drive shareholder value? Over the last 10+ years, I’ve helped CEOs and boards deploy capital across M&A, partnerships, and internal investment to create real enterprise value. After a certain scale, almost every company will develop a corporate
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Don't be the operator who scales based on 2.7% inflation while ignoring that core services ex-housing remain stubbornly sticky and 10-year yields have risen 90 bps since the Fed actually started cutting.
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Interesting contrarian take... given that all data centers are primary being built using private/investor capital (vs corporate, hyperscalers, etc) the market is ignoring the exit liquidity risk.. The question that was ignored here is are we overbuilding for a bubble, or are we
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Actual screenshot of my feed today…😂 VCs: "Here is our 5-year vision." The Market: "Here is a margin call." Good luck getting to 2026.
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$snap is so popular outside of the US.. ME in particular.. it quite incredible..
Holy crap… I just crunched some numbers on $SNAP and I think they could be a literal gold mine – hear me out. Right now $SNAP has ~943M MAUs. They just announced they are charging people for storage space for those who opt in. Let’s take an assumed adoption rate of 80% at
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OpenAI is set to spend $6 billion equity based comp this year which account for 50% of the rev.. It looks more like Open AI is running a capital arb. business. .. In the AI era, compute is a commodity (you can buy H100s from anyone). Data is becoming a commodity. The only
OpenAI will spend $6 billion on stock-based compensation this year, half of its revenue: https://t.co/3CHjwpPQyR
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CEOs/Founders need clarity, and I think going forward the surrounding team also needs to have a close eye on the broader economy and how it impacts their core markets.. Last couple of weeks have been a roller coaster.. bitcoin going up and down.. Japanese credit rising, but fed
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Happy Friday.. speaking to multiple founders.. do not hire a CFO at $5M ARR. You need a controller. A CFO does not fix messy books. A controller fixes messy books. A CFO tells the story of the books. Only hire a CFO when you need to raise complex debt, prep for M&A, plan and
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A couple of things standout.. Look at the blue bars. Global High Yield Spreads, US HY Spreads, and S&P 500 Earnings yields are all sitting above the 90th percentile in terms of valuation. The single biggest projected winner is Gold, projected to jump 13% to $4,745. Very
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Not trying to be pessimistic but more of a realist.. Three dissents within the Fed isn't just political, imo. It seems to be a structural differences that increases volatility and potentially contributes to uncertainty.. Regardless, I think companies should be careful about
BREAKING: The US Federal Reserve officially cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in their third interest rate cut of 2025.
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This is great but but if you look at the flows, the "New Rails" are winning on throughput. Stablecoin settlement volume ($18T+) reportedly flipped Mastercard ($9T) in 2024. It's not the case that $MA dies, but that I think it evolves. Stablecoins offer immediate settlement,
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Those who have gone through an auction process can relate to this … surprised that the texts were leaked..
Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav ghosted Paramount's David Ellison just hours before the news broke that Netflix was buying WB. On Dec. 4, following Paramount’s submission of a bid to the WBD board, Ellison sent the following text to Zaslav: “Just tried calling you about
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Everything you need to know about everything connects in AI..
This is my fifth conversation with @GavinSBaker. Gavin understands semiconductors and AI as well as anyone I know and has a gift for making sense of the industry's complexity and nuance. We discuss: - Nvidia vs Google (GPUs + TPUs) - Scaling laws and reasoning models - The
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Gemni is pretty dam good.. Not sure how they calculated the data for the charts but lines up with my use..
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I have recently been learning a lot about the used car market through a buddy of mine. The U.S. used car market is a staggering $1 Trillion+ annual asset class with over 35 million units sold annually. This chart is a masterclass in how cost of capital dictates survival. The
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In Q1/Q2 2025, DeepSeek V3 and R1 commanded 70-80% of token volume. Post-Summer, DeepSeek’s share collapsed to <30%. The switching costs for developers turned out to be near zero. What does this mean? If a dominant player like DeepSeek can lose 50% market share in two
The biggest AI usage report of 2025 just dropped (100 trillion tokens of real usage on OpenRouter) 8 findings that I was most surprised by: 1. Roleplay & creative fiction are the 2nd largest category and >50% of all open-source usage. Uncensored models are swallowing the demand
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Every year for the last 5 years, I’ve run a stress test on the new year's financial plan. The board deck shows us hitting the base case. Great. Now throw it out and run the survival case. Assume your #1 customer churns in Jan. Assume the Q1 pipeline slips entirely to Q2.
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Everyone is mesmerized by the revenue growth of the Mag 7. I’m looking at the cash flow statement, and I see a terrifying game of poker where the buy in keeps going up. For years, this capex spend was boring and predictable.... Then came the AI arms race. We are now looking at
FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER The Magnificent 7 combined to spend more than $100 Billion on Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) last quarter
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$0–$10M is fighting the market. $10M–$50M is fighting your own org chart.
$0-$1m ARR: tiny team does it all themselves $1m-$10m ARR: assemble world-class team $10m-$50m ARR: somehow, it now takes 2x as many people to do anything as it used to $50m-$250m ARR: not sure what most of the company does
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