Dr Stephen Hall
@stephengfhall
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AP @UniofBath. Author: The Authoritarian International. Research: Russia & post-Soviet space. Opinions & typos my own. AF @HJS_org, @bathcity_FC, @dorkingWDRS.
Bath, England
Joined November 2010
My new piece in the @thehill @TheHillOpinion on how it would be a terrible idea to reward 🇷🇺 with changing Western security architecture & giving 🇷🇺 a seat @ the table. This would be Putin’s dream & would show that the West is weak & that taking territory & engaging in war crimes
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Spot on. Putin’s ‘concession’ is nothing of the sort & would concede 🇺🇦’s defences in Donbas, leaving more 🇺🇦 territory open for further 🇷🇺 advancement, if allowed to happen @SteveWitkoff has again failed to understand that being a 🇷🇺speaker does not make someone 🇷🇺!
Everyone's quoting the Washington Post writing something like "Putin agreed to give up the occupied parts of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions in exchange for the rest of Donetsk region" in a phone call with Trump—and, supposedly, that's great progress. But that's nonsense.
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thereby highlighting that authoritarian learning is more horizontal than existing literature allows for. Link to article is here: https://t.co/7P8AznWGsj. Should be free access. So happy to finally see this in print!
tandfonline.com
Regional organizations have long addressed cross-border challenges like environmental degradation and terrorism. While much of the existing literature analyzes how democratic regional organizations...
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We argue that Authoritarian Regional Organisations (AROs) are crucial structures for authoritarian learning, the sharing of best practices and enhancing autocratic survival. AROs offer an opportunity for all autocratic members to bring ideas to the table,
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Really excited to share that my new article, co written with @DebreMaria, “Developing best practices “against terrorists who protest:” Regionam organisations as learning clubs for autocracies” is out with @CSP_journal.
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- An ICC warrant on Putin. - Another passed DJT deadline - Putin (again) owning DJT If they were a couple, it would be deemed an abusive marriage.
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So looking forward to networking & presenting. One presentation on the end of the Russian authoritarian gravity centre. The second on cognitive biases as a cause of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Already met my good friend Rasa Karmauskaite. So excited!
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Day 1193 of my 3 day war. Several billion dollars worth of Russian aircraft were destroyed by several thousand dollars of Ukrainian drones. I remain a master strategist.
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Ukraine has just carried out one of its largest attacks against the Russian Air Force using kamikaze drones, inflicting damage worth billions of euros. 1/2
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Last night Russia attacked a European capital with ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones. Today the story barely registers in international news headlines. Western normalization and acceptance of Russian atrocities in Ukraine is what makes them possible.
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A big thank you to @HJS_Org as well publishing my report https://t.co/EoCMYDzpQH on which the article for @EngelsbergIdeas is based.
henryjacksonsociety.org
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A 🇷🇺 without Putin doesn’t guarantee peace, but a 🇷🇺 with Putin guarantees instability. For too long the West has worried about instability in 🇷🇺 when it’s is stability we must fear. A link to the article is below 👇 https://t.co/669TD3gtY0.
engelsbergideas.com
Europe has spent too long fearing the consequences of Russian instability. It is time to fear the consequences of the stability of Putin's regime.
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This involves building up military capacity rapidly, supporting Ukraine & initiating the methods mentioned in the article to weaken the Kremlin. This doesn’t mean direct military confrontation but more subtle methods to weaken Putin’s power.
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Already we see 🇷🇺 sabotage activities in 🇪🇺 as but one example of this confrontation. 🇪🇺 must react by taking a strong approach to counter 🇷🇺 actions through economic pressure & contesting the information space. At the same time 🇪🇺 must prepare for a day without 🇺🇸
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🇷🇺 is not a status-quo power but the Kremlin seeks greater confrontation to justify holding power and the kleptocratic autocracy it has built around creating “others” & militarisation in society& politics.
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Great to see my article in @EngelsbergIdeas. For too long 🇪🇺 has feared 🇷🇺 instability. Rather, it should fear the stability of the Kremlin. 🇷🇺 under Putin has shown itself to be a revisionist power that requires the West as an enemy & 🇺🇦 as a conquest.
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Again Putin shows again he wants to dictate maximalist terms leading to 🇺🇦 surrender. Nothing new, but allows Putin to shift the ball - & likely blame for the failure of talks - to 🇺🇦. Peskov had temerity to claim that 30-day ceasefire was “new.” https://t.co/qmW4tP4eu0...
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Having seen Starmer, Macron Tusk meet with Zelensky agree on a 30 day ceasefire and then call Trump to confirm it. Putin holds an early morning presser & completely ignores the 30 day ceasefire & proclaims new talks on solving “fundamentals of the conflict.”
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This evening, I chaired the launch of the @HJS_Org’s ‘Russia Reality Check: How to Destabilise the Kemlin’ report put together by the amazing @stephengfhall. Thank you to @khodorkovsky_en and Ksenia Maximova, founder of @rusdemsoc, for taking part.
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Amazing & great honour to this report today in Parliament. Stellar panel of @WillForster, @khodorkovsky_en, @lisa_haseldine & Ksenia Maximova!
@stephengfhall @TimesRadio @thetimes @politico The West must move beyond the illusion that Putin can be reasoned with. Britain and its allies must adopt a posture of strategic resolve—exploiting Russia’s growing vulnerabilities to constrain its capacity for aggression. Read the report here:
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