This has been surreal for Kevin, me & the kids! Grateful to @BillClinton for the inspiration and @DavidBegnaud & @CBSMornings for telling our story. It’s a reminder of what’s possible, and what America can still be.

Thank you @DavidBegnaud and @CBSMornings for telling our story so elegantly and with such warmth. You’re a master. Here’s to the pests!

So this is happening next Monday…. Thank you for telling our story @DavidBegnaud

If you care about democracy and overlooked communities, this weekend’s @PulaskiInst event is a must: Healthy heartland democracy will be focus of October summit at Hendrix https://t.co/Ur00cNWEKl Additional details: https://t.co/xXHUsoXNYT

AMAZING story done by @LarryLage about 21-year-old @MSU_Football’s Armorion Smith, who is now taking care of his five younger siblings after his Mom died of breast cancer at 41 last month. Seems like the perfect time for some community involvement. We should help

Freedom, pluralism and prosperity are especially vulnerable in places that feel disconnected or left behind. A summit at Hendrix next month will address the state of democracy in the mid-South.

7/7 Yes, there are a zillion variables like new polls, adjusted formulas, trends, Dobbs, amendments, wars etc. I get it. Just trying to establish a sense of how state polling averages tend to perform vs. actual results & to understand what current averages may portend. Enjoy!

6/7 Hot take: VA could be in play (and 538 needs to start tracking averages there). Harris and Trump have both led in polls there in recent months though neither by more than five.

5/7 WEEK OF 8/31 TRENDLINES (Part 2): Harris lead shrank in: AZ (lost 1.0) & MI (lost 0.1); Trump lead shrank in NC (-0.1).

4/7 WEEK OF 8/31 TRENDLINES: Harris now leads GA and NV. Her national lead grew by 0.8 but w/2020 variance corrections she continues to trail badly in electoral college. Battleground state trends: Harris now leads GA (up 0.5) & NV (up 1.1) and grew lead in WI (+0.7) & PA (+0.1).

3/7 The green column is called "Dave's Safety Zone." That basically establishes a "you can relax now" gap that can be considered safe on a state-by-state basis. Warning: those numbers are big. That's because the 16 & 20 polling averages were often much more than a point off.

2/7 The model establishes yearly polls vs. reality variances & applies them to current state averages to see if Harris leads are enough to outperform past variances. Short answer: right now they’re not. If the election was today, Trump wins (though it’s tighter than before).

2/7 Essentially: if past is prologue, is Harris far enough ahead to take the electoral college if today's polling holds. Data starts in 2016 (when 538 polling averages began) and goes to present day. Will attempt to update weekly. This first shows pre-& post convention averages.

1/7 I've built a 2024 election predictor which compares previous final battleground state polling averages against actual results to understand if current polling points to a Harris or Trump win. I call it, "Dave's Battleground Predict-O-Meter". (DBPOM...?? Alt names welcome.)

#OnThisDay in 1954, the small community of Charleston, Arkansas, admitted 11 Black students, becoming the first in the former Confederacy to end segregation in its schools. Dale Bumpers served as legal counsel and went on to become governor and U.S. senator. He wrote a memoir

A quick personal story about our next POTUS: I became friends with @KamalaHarris and @DouglasEmhoff in 2015 when she and I were both preparing to run for Senate. She won her race and I didn’t but we remained friends and I would visit her sometimes during trips to DC. We were

Ukrainian anthem at the Olympics in Paris! 🇺🇦

Car stuck during Bryant flash flooding. #arwx

Throwback to the time @MarthaStewart mistakenly tagged me. 🤣

Smashed N’ Stacked burgers pile on flavor, but the real goal is to smash food insecurity.