Sanjay Kumar
@sanjaycsds
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Professor, @csdsdelhi | Co-director, @LoknitiCSDS | Political Analyst and Psephologist. Views are personal.
Joined March 2014
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Various statements by BJP candidate in Nandigram Subendu Adhikari and events which have unfolded in Nandigarm indicate, game over for Subendu Adhikari.
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44 Assembly seats in Rajasthan third party or an independent polled higher votes than the victory margin of BJP. In all these 44 seats Congress was runner up. An alliance of Congress with some regional forces in Rajasthan may have address 30 more seats for it.
@LoknitiCSDS
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2K
There is hardly any contest left for 2024 Lok Sabha Election now. To me, the only interest left for 2024 is how many seats BJP and NDA can add to its tally of 2019 and if Congress can even mange to hold on to its tally of 2014 LS.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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CSDS survey estimates, BJP trailing behind Cong by 15% votes in MP for the Assembly Elections. Cong 49%, BJP 34%, BSP 5% Others 12%.
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Losses for BJP in Hindi belt including Gujarat may not be as big as Yogendra Yadav believes, Congress would need a big swing in its favour.
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Mamata Banerjee faced a tough fight in Nandigram, won only by 1200 votes, but her bold decision to contest from Nandigram boosted the morale of TMC workers gave confidence to them of TMC victory.
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Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey UP
AC 70 Locations 280
Sample size nearly 7000 (exact number awaited as some data yet to be added)
Vote Share Estimate
BJP+ 43%
SP+ 35%
BSP 15%
Cong 3%
Oth 4%
Big win for BJP
Margin of error 3%
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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88 % of Urban Poor are registered as Voters in Delhi
56% believe AAP as best to solve their problem, 16% consider BJP best to solve their problem and 10% consider Congress best to solve their issues.
AAP has made huge inroads amongst Delhi's Poor
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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1K
In a survey conducted by
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
in Delhi in early 2022, 79% parents of children going to govt school said condition of Govt schools have improved
@IndianExpress
April 16, 2022. Evidence from a scientific survey.
@AAPDelhi
@msisodia
@aatishi
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The
@INCIndia
has a good chance of winning election in Karnataka.
@INCKarnataka
can cross majority mark with a 4% swing in its favour with the assumption of an equal negative swing away from
@BJPKarnataka
(2%) and JD(S) (2%).
@BJP4India
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Loosing 10 of 11 Lok Sabha by-elections should worry BJP, anti incumbency has set in. It won states due to anti incumbency against Cong govt
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During my travel to different states over last few months, I observed that dislike for Congress is most because people blame this party for appeasing Muslims.
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Of the 77 AC which BJP won in Bengal, 22 victories were of less than 5000 votes. 1% lesser vote share would have brought BJP's tally down to 55 seats. Only 46 victories were with more than 10000 votes.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Leave aside claims and counter claims. This is what parents who's children to government school said in the
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
survey conducted in early Jan 2022
Condition of govt school during last 2-3 years
Improved 80%
Detoriarated 7%
No change 12%
No opinion 1%
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965
Protest across the country on Lakhimpur Kheri incident has pushed BJP on backfoot. Govt conceeding to farmers demand quickly is an indication of that. Has damaged the image of BJP govt. Can this be a turning point? Too early to conclude but dangerous signals for BJP.
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Unemployment is a big issue from common citizens point of view. Who said unemployment has increased during last 5 years in recent
@LoknitiCSDS
surveys
Punjab 85%
UP 78%
Uttarakhand 85%
Gujarat 88%
Goa 83%
HP 90%
Karnataka 44%
MP 54%
Rajasthan 43%
Chhattisgarh 49%
Telangana 69%
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Findings of
@LoknitiCSDS
survey estimate of vote share
Cong 21%
Cong Allies 13%
BJP 40%
BJP Allies 6%
BSP 3%
Left 2%
Others 15%
@csdsdelhi
@BJP4India
@INCIndia
@AITCofficial
@AamAadmiParty
@RJDforIndia
#Elections2024
#vote
#indianelection
#chunaav
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Three way contest in Delhi means all 7 Lok sabha seats to BJP, an allaince of Cong and AAP can reverse the results completely in Delhi
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Estimates of
@LoknitiCSDS
survey
Choice for PM
Narendra Modi 48%
Rahul Gandhi 27%
Arvind Kejriwal 3%
Mamata Banerjee 3%
Akhilesh Yadav 3%
Others 6%
Modi's popularity remains intact, hardly any change.
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In the
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
survey 55% Indians expressed the view that corruption has increased during last 5 years. An opinion shared amongst both rich and poor equally. 19% also believed that it has declined while another 19% expressed no change in it.
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Findings of the
@LoknitiCSDS
latest survey indicate 79% Indians believe India belongs to people of all religions, 11% says it belongs to only Hindus. 10% did not express any opinion
@csdsdelhi
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West Bengal survey conducted in 200 PS, in 50 AC. We are yet to get data from 8th phase. data from seven phases indicate, TMC ahead of BJP at least by 4-5% votes enough to get majority to TMC.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
@NDTVElections
@BBCPolitics
@PalshikarSuhas
@SandeepShastri2
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Defeat in three states has sent BJP on backfoot, Conceded 17 seat to JD U and 6 to LJP in Bihar only because of this defeat. ,
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The final turnout figures after 4 phases of voting
1st phase -3.8%, (66.14%)
2nd phase -3.8%, (66.71%)
3rd phase -0.2%, (65.68%)
4th phase -1.3%, (67.79%)
The turnout is not as low as it seemed initially.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Estimate from
@LoknitiCSDS
Post Poll in Telangana
Total sample 3097
Location 120
AC 30
Sample profile Women 46%, Muslim 13%, Urban 49% Dalit 16%, ST 11%
Vote share
Cong 38%
BRS 34%
BJP 11%
AIMIM 3%
Others 14%
Margin of error Cong 1.7%, BRS 1.6%, BJP 1.1%, oth 1.2%
Overall 1.2%
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Vaccine not available in Le Crest hospital in Vasundhara Ghaziabad for last 3 days. My personal experience as I need to get my mother and myself vaccinate.
@dm_ghaziabad
@CMOfficeUP
@BBCHindi
@BBCIndia
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India today MOTN survey indicates Jobs have not been created at all 32% agreed in Feb 16, July 18 survey puts the figure at 60%.
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Amongst the Poor Voters of Delhi
Arvind Kejriwal liked a lot by 67%
Narendra Modi liked a lot by 47%
Rahul Gandhi liked a lot by 21%
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Estimate from
@LoknitiCSDS
Post Poll in Chhattisgarh
Total sample 2614
Location 100
AC 25
Sample profile Women 48%, Muslim 3%, Urban 25% Dalit 13%, ST 23%
Vote share
Cong 42%
BJP 38%
BSP+GGP 5%
Others 15%
Margin of error Cong 1.8%, BJP 1.8%, BSP+ 0.8%, oth 1.3%
Overall 1.5%
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There have been 47 amendments in GST till now, you yourself decide, how well designed was GST when it was implemented with great fanfare
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No mention of the by election results in 6 O,clock morning news on radio as if elections did not take place, strange censorship
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Estimate from
@LoknitiCSDS
Post Poll in Rajasthan
Total sample 3018
Location 120
AC 30
Sample profile Women 44%, Muslim 9%, Urban 31% Dalit 15%, ST 17%
Vote share
Cong 40%
BJP 43%
BSP 4%
Others 13%
Margin of error Cong 1.7%, BJP 1.7%, BSP 0.6%, oth 1.1%
Overall error 1.4%
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At 3 pm TMC has not only established lead in more then 200 seats, it is heading for its all time highest vote share, estimated at the moment 48.5%%.
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Estimate from
@LoknitiCSDS
Survey
BJP vote share
North and West 47% ( in 2019 48%)
South 25% ( in 2019 18%)
East and North East 42% (in 2019 34%)
Cong vote share
North and West 24% (in 2019 22%)
South 23% (in 2019 20%)
East and North East 14% (in 2019 12%)
@csdsdelhi
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136
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If you see the CM resigning and same person/CM again taking Oath as the CM within hours, that too several times during last few years, how would this enthused the Youth to actively participate in active politics.
@LoknitiCSDS
s
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Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey findings PUNJAB
No of AC 45 Locations 180 all sampled randomly, Sample size 4668, voters sampled randomly from voters list
Vote share Estimate
AAP 40%
Cong 26%
SAD+20%
BJP+ 7%
Oth 7%
Big victory for AAP
Margin of error 4%
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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BJP’s votes 50%+ in Kairana in 2014, mere arithmetic of united opposition could not have defeated BJP, RLD victory more than arithmetic
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In Dadra and Nagar Haveli Lok Sabha seat which
#BJP
lost, its vote share declined by 7%, from 41% in 2019 to 34% in
#ByeElections2021
. One pattern is uniform, Decline in BJP's vote share irrespective of its victory or defeat in all 3 Lok Sabha seats.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Estimate from
@LoknitiCSDS
Post Poll in MP
Total sample 3050
Location 120
AC 30
Sample profile Women 50%, Muslim 7%, Urban 28% Dalit 16%, ST 20%
Vote share
Cong 41%
BJP 43%
BSP 5%
Others 12%
Margin of error Cong 1.7%, BJP 1.7%, BSP 0.7%, oth 1.1%
Overall margin of error 1.4%
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After karnataka,s recent political development my daughter who had little interest in politics, now says, Indian Democracy is in danger
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Estimates from
@LoknitiCSDS
post Poll survey
@csdsdelhi
Cong 42%, Margin of Error 2.38%
BJP 35%, Margin of Error 2.3%
JD(S) 16% Margin of Error 1.7%
Oth 7% Margin of Error 1.2%
Overall Margin of Error 1.9%
Total Sample 1650
Spread across randomly selectec 64 locations of 16 AC.
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Findings from Lokniti-CSDS Religion survey conducted in 2016. Opinion about wearing Burqua Hindus-Approve 61%, Disapprove 17%, Non Opinion 22% Muslim Approve 87%, Disapprove 7%, No Opinion 6% Christians Approve 60%, Disapprove 21%, No Opinion 19%
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Has anyone noticed the increasing prices, Potato 50 rs, Onion 60 rs, most other green vegetables between 80-120 rs per kg. Is this not pinching the people or have we got used to this? No hue and cry about rising prices.
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Whatever may be the claims and counter claim, in my view AAP is set for a very big victory, between 61- 66 seats, remaining to BJP
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By holding hands of BJP within hours of resignation and breaking the alliance Nitish Kumar image will be dented be seen as opportunist
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Findings of the
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
pre poll survey amongst randomly selected over 10000 voters suggest unemployment is a big issue at present. 62% said finding a job is more difficult now compared to the past. 27% also mentioned it as an important issue for 2024 election.
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Congress was a poor runner up in 209 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. A perfect opposition unity can help
@congress_
win only 28 of these seats assuming it is up against only the
@BJP4India
candidate in 2024 in these seats. Difficult task for
@INCIndia
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Modi’s personal popularity & people’s faith in his integrity & honesty biggest asset for BJP in 2019. No dent in his image on these 2 issue
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145 migrants have died due to road accident between March 24 and May 16, data compiled by SaveLife Foundation.
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No confusion about data on women vote in UP. There are different ways of looking at data.
BJP Men 44% and Women 46%,
Lead for BJP amongst Women 2%
SP Men 39%, Women 33%
BJP 's lead over SP among Women 13% (46-33)
BJP's lead over SP among Men 5% (44-39).
Hope this clarifies.
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Malfunctioning of 100 EVM in MP on day of voting is a very serious issues, ECI definitely needs to clarify.
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M P Assembly Election 2023
Leads in Postal Votes count
Cong 200 seats, vote 57%
BJP 30 seats, vote 36%
Leads in EVM Count
Cong 64 seats, vote 40%
BJP 165 seats, vote 49%
Actual Results
Cong 66 seats, vote 40.4%
BJP 163 seats, vote 48.6%
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
@Rashmii_10
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In the
@LoknitiCSDS
@CSDS
survey 59% believed that farmers demands are genuine, they have a right to protest, 16% mentioned it is a conspiracy against the govt. others were unaware of this issue. Amongst farmers 63% supported farmers protest.
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Opinion shared by voters
@LoknitiCSDS
survey
Should Modi govt get another chance
Yes 44% (in 2019 it was 47%)
No 39% (in 2019 it was 35%)
No Response 17% (in 2019 it was 18%)
In my opinion, no sign of anti incumbency, neither a hint of greater enthusiasm compared to 2019.
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Some data
Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023
Lead in postal ballot
Cong 137 seats, vote 48%
BJP 53 seats, 38%
Leads in EVM
Cong 69 seats, vote 39%
BJP 114 seats, vote 42%
Final result
Cong won 69 seats, vote 39.5%
BJP won 115 seats, vote 41.7%
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
@Rashmii_10
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Chhattisgarh is relatively much easier for
@INCIndia
. With 8% swing Cong can win 6 and
@BJP4India
can get reduced to 5 seats. With 10% swing Cong 7 seats, 13% swing Cong can win 9 and BJP 2 seats.
@csdsdelhi
@LoknitiCSDS
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In 28 out of 30 state assembly election surveys which
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
conducted during last few years, voters expressed concern and anxiety about Price Rise. It is a real concern of common people. Can't be ignored.
@BJP4India
@INCIndia
@TMC
@AamAadmiParty
@RJDforIndia
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50 State elections held in India since 2014. Of these 24 won by BJP and its allies, 7 by Congress and its allies 19 by regional parties. As incumbent BJP won 11, lost 7. As incumbent Cong won 1 lost 13 elections.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
@Election_in
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In Karnataka Congress still holds ground with 47% votes while BJP slipping down to 30% compared to 43% votes it received in 2014
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Estimate from
@LoknitiCSDS
survey
Support for BJP Amongst
Poor 39%
Lower class 39%
Middle class 40%
Upper class 45%
For Cong
Poor 22%
Lower class 22%
Middle class 20%
Upper class 20%
@csdsdelhi
@BJP4India
@INCIndia
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Majority of Indians belive in co-existence
Those who have no problem having a neighbour from a different religion
HINDU 60%
MUSLIM 72%
CHRISTIAN 72%
SIKH 82%
@LoknitiCSDS
Religion Survey 2016
@csdsdelhi
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BJP can be defeated in 2019 if there is anger, at the moment no sign of anger only emerging dissatisfaction, not enough to defeat BJP
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Latest Lokniti-CSDS-APU study indicate, unemployment is the biggest problem for the common Indians. Most pronounced amongst younger people.
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This is something about which all Indians should feel concerned about. Corruption is rampant in India, especially while dealing with government offices.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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In Telangana, turnout increased in
PC Name % Increase Muslim %
Nagarkurnool 6.5%, 7%
Mahbubnagar 6.1%, 11%
Zahirabad 4.8%, 13%
Warangal 4.6%, 7%
Nazimabad 3.1%, 16%
Karimnagar 2.8%, 6%
Medak 2.6%, 10%
Peddapalle 2.3%, 6%
Chevella 2.2%, 15%
@LoknitiCSDS
#election2024
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My forthcoming book on
#Women
#Voters
in
#Indian
#election
might answer the burning question in today's
#politics
, Why women voters have suddenly become important for
#political
#Parties
? Can women voters be a game changer for a political party?
@csdsdelhi
@LoknitiCSDS
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Why people want to reelect Narendra Modi govt
@LoknitiCSDS
survey
Good work 42%
Benefits from Welfare schemes 18%
Modi is a Great leader 10%
Ram Mandir 8%
Removal of Articla 370, 6%
Indias Image in the world has improved 4%
Hindutva 4%
@csdsdelhi
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Estimates in my personal capacity. Congress 37% BJP 34%, JDS 20% Others 9%. In terms of vote Congress marginally ahead of BJP.
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Finding from Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey UTTARAKHAND
No of AC 26 Locations 104, Sample size 2738, All sampled randomly
Estimated Vote Share
BJP 43%
Cong 38%
AAP 3%
BSP 4%
Oth 12%
Should give a comfortable majority to BJP
Margin of error 3%.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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262
APU-Lokniti-CSDS Study, reveals people believe police have caste based discriminatory attitudes, If case invilves Upper Castes and Dalit, 43% said police would favour Upper caste, 37% believed, both would be treated equally, 6% said Dalits would be favoured.
@LoknitiCSDS
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87
267
A recent study by
@LoknitiCSDS
in Delhi indicate 50% of Migrants in Delhi are from UP, 22% from Bihar, 8% from West Bengal and 7% from Rajasthan. 14% of Migrants from Bihar have been recent Migrants living in Delhi for less than 1 year.
@csdsdelhi
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95
271
Findings of the
@LoknitiCSDS
indicate, in 2019, 47%
#Youth
felt close to BJP. In 2021, 34% Youth believe
#BJP
is the best party for addressing the issues of Youth. Evidence of some decline in BJP's popularity amongst
#Youngvoters
.
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269
Women have always vote for Mamata Banerjee in a big way in all past elections. They have again voted for her in a big way. 7-8% lead for TMC amongst women voters May be even higher. CSDS Will bring out detailed analysis in The Hindu in coming week.
@the_hindu
@vrsrini
3
45
261
The
@LoknitiCSDS
and
@csdsdelhi
has not done any survey regarding the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Some fake news/doctored tweet is being circulated that CSDS survey ne Pol khol di hai.
It is important to clarify this..
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Even if people agree that nothing much has happened during Modi's rule they are not inclined to vote for Cong as they think it lacks good leadership.
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In Delhi's Slums
Supply of Electricity improved 91%
Drinking water supply improved 52%, deteriorated 22%
Govt Hospital Improved 41%, Detoriarated 6%
Drainage/sewage improved 30% Detoriarated 44%
Condition of Streets improved 35%, Detoriarated 40%
@LoknitiCSDS
-
@csdsdelhi
survey
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114
250
Studies conducted by CSDS indicate, over 90 % people have high degree to trust in EVM cutting across communities.
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Muzaffarnagar PC in UP turnout declined by 9.3%, Muslims constitute 45% of total voters..
Mathura PC turnout declined by 12.8%, Muslim voters in this PC 8%.
Baghpat PC in UP turnout declined by 8.7% Muslims 25%
@LoknitiCSDS
#election2024
#election
#ElectionsWithTOI
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In this Lokniti-CSDS conducted all India survey with 12000 interviews covering 21 states, 19% policemen were of the view that dangerous criminals should be killed instead of giving them opportunity of legal trail
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
4
58
232
Changing profile of
@BJP4India
's
@BJP4Delhi
support base.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
survey findings.
Of all BJP's Votes in 1996, 49% was from Upper Caste, 33% from OBC, 11% from SC, 7% from ST
In 2019 of all BJP votes 30% from Upper Caste, 44% from OBC, 16% from SC, 10% from ST.
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79
233
CSDS survey findings 57% farmers believe, Modi govt did good job for farmers while 37% farmers believe it did bad job for them.
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204
If BJP is asking for resignation of Kejriwal after AAP defeat in Delhi MCD election did their 7 MP resigned after their defeat in 2015 AS
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216
Almost 50 % of Delhi's Urban.poor are from UP, 20% from Bihar, 6% from Rajasthan, 3% from MP, 2% each from Haryana, West Bengal and Uttarakhand. 57% of them living in Delhi for more than 57 years and 30 % are second generation living since birth.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey GOA
AC 20 location 80 sample size 2066 sampled from voters list
Vote share estimate
BJP 32%
Cong 29%
AITC+ 14%
AAP 7%
RG 8%
Oth 10%
Hung Assembly possible
Margin of error 6% due to smaller sample & multi corner contest
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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58
219
Let's not equate Non Vegetarians with any religion.
Sizeable numbers of Hindus are Non-Vegetarian
Amongst Dalits 67% eat Non-Veg
Adivasis 68% Non -Veg
OBC 59% Non-Veg
Upper Castes 43% Non-Veg
Muslims 85% Non-Veg
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
13
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Indian elections have become extremely leader centric. In Delhi MCD election Arvind Kejriwal is the central face while the Gujarat Assembly Election is being contested around the face of PM Narendra Modi.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
@AamAadmiParty
@BJP4India
@BJP4Delhi
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Some good news, In 13 Indian states, population will start declining soon. These are most Southern states. In 8 states, population growth rate still remains high.
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Bihar election reminds me of last Gujarat Assembly Election. In Gujrat, Congress was setting the agenda and BJP was responding. In Bihar, Tejaswi is setting the agenda and NDA is responding at least till now. In both states BJP is the ruling party or ruling coalition.
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In Gujarat
@BJP4India
has led over the
@INCIndia
by almost 10% votes in all Assembly elections.
1995, BJP 42.5%, Cong 32.8%
1998 BJP 44.8% Cong 34.8%
2002 BJP 49.8% Cong 39.2%
2007 BJP 49.1% Cong 38%
2012 BJP 47.8% Cong 38.9%
2017 BJP 49% Cong 41.4%.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Reasons why people don't want this government to be re-elected
@LoknitiCSDS
survey estimates
Increased Unemployment 32%
Rising prices 20%
Falling Income 11%
Failure in dealing with corruption 7%
Bad Governance 6%
Favoring Big Businessmen 5%
Religious discrimination 5%
@csdsdelhi
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210
Estimate of
@LoknitiCSDS
survey
3 Most liked work of Narendra Modi govt for the NDA Voters
Ram Mandir 33%
Employment generation 12%
India's International Image 10%
3 Most disliked work of Narendra Modi govt for INDIA Alliance voters
Unemployment 25%
Inflation 23%
Poverty 10%
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We managed to complete our Post Poll survey in West Bengal with 4223 respondents. Lokniti-CSDS final estimate TMC leads over BJP by 4-5% votes, enough to give comfortable majority to TMC.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
@PalshikarSuhas
@SandeepShastri2
10
26
200
Looks like Bihar CM Nitish Kumar keeps one letter in one pocket ( of resignation) and another letter (of staking claim with numbers) in another pocket as he needs to use these two letters frequently.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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Challenge for BJP is bigger in last 3 phase compared to the first 4 phase. Some facts.
2017 Assembly Election Results
First 4 phase, of 231 seats BJP had won 190 (83% success rate). Last 3 phase of 172, BJP had won 122 aseats (71% Success rate).
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
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There is ECI's ban on desimination of Exit poll data, but many political leaders have given statement citing exact number of seat their party would win in first round of election in West Bengal. Is this not violation of Code of conduct set by ECI regarding Exit Poll?
@eci
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Findings of
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
survey indicates 32% people believe, development in India has been only for rich Indians, 48% mentioned development has been for everyone (Sabkaa Vikaas) 15% said no development. Others did not respond.
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Lokniti-CSDS survey indicates 40% people get paid on daily basis, 6% on weekly basis, 26% on monthly. difficult times for these 46% Indians
5
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The only way to bring down BJP in 2019 is the alliance which also has limited impact. But the alliance is not yet in sight.
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Opinion expressed in
@LoknitiCSDS
survey. Biggest failures of Modi Govt.
Price Rise 24%
Increased Unemployment 24%
Poverty 10%
Dealing with Corruption 7%
Lack of development 4%
Religious discrimination 3%
Farmers issue 3%
Bad Governance 2%
@csdsdelhi
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