Lokniti-CSDS
@LoknitiCSDS
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Lokniti is a programme of @csdsdelhi . We've been regularly measuring public opinion during and between elections in India since 1995.
Delhi, India
Joined November 2018
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Lokniti-CSDS has NOT done any survey in the State of Andhra Pradesh. What is being shared on social media is FAKE and complete rubbish!
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From our NES 2019 Post Poll in 4 NE States
Question asked to voters: Do you support (S) or oppose (O) the
#CAB
?
Assam: S 23% - O 70%
Manipur: S 9% - O 88%
Meghalaya: S 18% - O 74%
Nagaland: S 9% - O 89%
The rest didn't answer; fieldwork April 2019
@sanjaycsds
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Our data from the
#NES2024PrePoll
also reveals that a majority of 8 in 10 Hindus embrace religious pluralism, and only 11% see India as solely for
#Hindus
. Surprisingly, the youth lead the charge with 81% prioritizing diversity over 73% of the older generation.
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The gender divide in voting preferences in the
#DelhiElections2020
is such that it could be argued that had women not voted in this election, the AAP victory wouldn’t have been a landslide but a very narrow one
Men
AAP 49%
BJP 43%
Women
AAP 60%
BJP 35%
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In our India-wide survey during Lok Sabha 2019 we read out 2 statements to voters & asked them which one they agreed with
76% chose👇🏾
"India belongs to citizens of all religions equally, not just Hindus"
15% chose👇🏾
"India primarily belongs to only Hindus"
9% didn't answer
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Our official statement regarding the fake news about a survey in Andhra Pradesh.
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From our survey during
#DelhiElections2020
Ques: Do you consider police entering the
#Jamia
campus & beating up students to be right or wrong?
Wrong 69% (Men 65 Women 75)
Right 26 (M 30 W 20)
No ans 5
Ques was posed to 2710 respondents who'd heard of the incident out of 3335
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Encouraging findings from
@LoknitiCSDS
2024
#prepoll
: 79% believe 'India belongs to all religions equally, not just Hindus'. Urban areas (85%) and educated individuals (83%) show stronger support for plurality.
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Recap of results of our Delhi survey published in
@IndianExpress
Dec 10-14
• 86% satisfied with AAP govt, 74% with NDA govt
• 42% like Kejriwal>Modi, 32% Modi>Kejriwal, 16% both
• AAP rating on Health 7.1/10, on Edu 7.7
• 77% getting ⬇ power bills, 71% ⬇ water bills
(1/3)
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Insights from the latest
@LoknitiCSDS
#prepollsurvey
, as discussed in
@the_hindu
by
@SandeepShastri2
, reveals that the public trust in the
#ElectionCommissionOfIndia
has declined since five years ago.
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At this stage, a majority of respondents are willing to give the
#Modigovernment
another chance, crucial for a third term bid. Yet, 39% oppose re-election, narrowing
#BJP
's cushion. Any shift in support could impact BJP's prospects.
#Election2024
#ModiGovt
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Lokniti-CSDS Bihar Pre Poll Survey
Voting intention between October 10 and 17
NDA: 38%
MGB: 32%
GDSF: 07%
LJP: 06%
Oth: 17%
Sample size: 3731
Error margin: +/- 3% points
14% said they could change their mind come Election Day
#BiharElections2020
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Lokniti CSDS' study examined the Hindu votes of the BJP. Bhanu Parmar and Devesh Kumar(
@deveshh_kumar
) share the findings in
@the_hindu
This article can be accessed here:-
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Article on "Rahul Gandhi’s acceptability as PM nearly doubled since 2014. More than half are non-Congress" by
@PalshikarSuhas
@SandeepShastri2
@sanjaycsds
and Vibha Attri in
@ThePrintIndia
@LoknitiCSDS
Link:
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"I am happy to note that the sample sizes of various exit polls for 2019 run into several lakhs. I only hope I was able to learn the art of collecting a properly randomised sample of such a large number." -
@sanjaycsds
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Our post poll analysis on
#UttarPradesh
for
@the_hindu
:
Had it not been for women, BJP may not have won this big. Our survey finds that BJP+ had a huge lead of 13% over SP+ among them. Sudhir Khare & Vibha Attri analyse the women's vote.
Read here:
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Our post poll analysis on
#UttarPradesh
for
@the_hindu
:
"Several governance issues notwithstanding, the BJP’s caste arithmetic could not be breached." - Mirza Asmer Beg, Shashikant Pandey, Shreyas Sardesai
Read here:
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#WestBengal
|
@LoknitiCSDS
' Post-Poll Analysis
Contrary to expectations, the
#BJP
’s appeal among backward classes and the
#poor
has petered out
Shreyas Sardesai writes for
@the_hindu
Read it here:
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The
#NES2024
data reveals
#BJP
's comfortable 12-point lead over
#INDIA
alliance, with 4 out of 10 voters favoring BJP. Despite marginal gains for
#Congress
, BJP maintains strong position for third consecutive term.
#Election2024
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Residents of
#Delhi
may not be interested in criticisms of PM Modi, but they also do not seem to be in the mood to remove AAP from power, an opinion survey among 2,298 Delhi voters by Lokniti-CSDS suggests.
@PalshikarSuhas
@sanjaycsds
@SandeepShastri2
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#NES2024Prepoll
survey highlights
#Modi
's dominance in leadership preferences, with nearly half of respondents naming him as their choice for the
#PrimeMinister
.
#Election2024
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The opinion of Delhi's voters on the question was even more emphatic
👇🏾
90% chose the statement "India belongs to citizens of all religions equally, not just Hindus"
Only 7% agreed with the statement "India primarily belongs to only Hindus"
#DelhiElections2020
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LOKNITI-CSDS BIHAR POST POLL ANALYSIS: The elections seem to have witnessed two competing consolidations — Yadavs and Muslims on the side of the MGB, and upper castes, Kurmi-Koeris and EBCs on the side of the NDA, with Dalits being the swing vote.
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From our recent Delhi Election Survey
Question asked: Some people say that the Delhi Police should be under the Delhi Govt (DG) while others say that it should continue to be under the Central Govt (CG). What's your opinion?
DG: 47%
CG: 37%
Both: 6%
Can't say: 10%
N=3,335
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Don't blame NOTA for your defeat says
@sanjaycsds
NOTA declined from 1.9% to 1.4% in Madhya Pradesh; 1.9% to 1.3% in Rajasthan; 3.0% to 1.9% in Chhattisgarh; and 0.6% to 0.4% in Mizoram. Only in Telangana, was there a marginal increase from 0.7% to 1.0%.
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The release of CSDS-Lokniti-APU Report - Politics and Society Between Elections 2019 - by Zoya Hasan,
@_YogendraYadav
,
@ProfVarshney
,
@sanjaycsds
and Siddharth Swaminathan.
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@IndianExpress
• 83% favor free bus rides for women
• 54% consider Metro fares to be ‘high’
• 45% consider pollution to be city’s biggest problem
• 10% likely to make pollution a voting issue
• 79% support Odd-Even scheme
(2/3)
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A recent article from
@LoknitiCSDS
by
@sanjaycsds
, Aditi Singh, Avika Singh, and Kaushiki K. Singh, in
@the_hindu
sheds light on the BJP and Congress online advertising expenses in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
#PoliticalAds
#MetaAdLibrary
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@IndianExpress
• 91% Mohalla clinic visitors satisfied with services
• 75% households with child in Delhi govt school have attended at least one PTM
• 66% reported better water supply, 87% better power supply
• 56% said drinking water quality is good/better
(3/3)
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Do Indians relate more to their regional identity or the national one? Which language is preferred in public spaces: local or any? Here's Lokniti's
@jmishra23
with the State-wise picture. Some surprises for sure!
#TellingNumbers
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From our May 2019 survey in Delhi during Lok Sabha polls
CM choice of 56% voters who wanted Modi as PM
👇🏽
Arvind Kejriwal 29%
Other AAP leaders 1%
Harshvardhan 6%
Vijender Gupta 3%
Manoj Tiwari 3%
Other BJP 11%
Sheila Dikshit 2%
Other Cong 1%
Can't say 44%
#DelhiElections2020
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Happening now: Panel discussion on 'Women in Indian politics' co-hosted by
@KASonline
and Lokniti-CSDS
Panelists:
@priyankac19
@Sanjeev_aap
@LambaAlka
@AnilaSingh_BJP
@ghanshyamtiwari
@Nawalk7
Moderator: Prof Rajeshwari Deshpande
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Launch of
@sanjaycsds
edited 'Women Voters in Indian Elections: Changing Trends and Emerging Patterns'
#BookRelease
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Insightful piece by
@Lokniti
in today's Hindu by
@jmishra23
, Vibha Attri, and
@ananyaS2002
. Delving into
#BJP
's landslide victory in 2019, emphasizing not just seat count but also historic victory margins. Now, a spotlight on their
#ticketdistributionstrategy
for
#LokSabha2024
.
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Vote choice of migrant voters in 2015 Delhi elections
Those from UP
AAP 55%
BJP 32%
INC 9%
From BR/JH
AAP 64%
BJP 29%
INC 4%
PB/HR
AAP 47%
BJP 42%
INC 8%
Oth parts
AAP 52%
BJP 34%
INC 12%
Born in DL
AAP 55%
BJP 32%
INC 10%
Source: 2015 Post Poll
#DelhiElections2020
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Dive into the perennial debate: Does economics dominate politics or vice versa?
@LoknitiCSDS
' latest piece in
@the_hindu
by
@sanjaycsds
,
@PalshikarSuhas
, and
@SandeepShastri2
addresses this question for the upcoming
#2024elections
.
@csdsdelhi
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#Punjab
gets its first
#DalitCM
ahead of
#assemblyelections2022
.
Here’s Lokniti’s data on how
#Dalits
and other communities voted in the last 4 Punjab assembly elections. 👇🏽
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Recent article from
@LoknitiCSDS
in
@the_hindu
by
@sanjaycsds
,
@jmishra23
, Aditi Singh, Anagha V. Nair, Abhishek Sharma, and Subhayan Acharya. They delve into a study monitoring X handles of five spokespersons each from
#BJP
and
#Congress
, analyzing 798
#tweets
till early April.
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The issue of
#Corruption
has remained vital to Indian electoral arena. Figures from our
#NES2024PrePoll
study highlight a pervasive concern about corruption across all economic groups, underscoring the need for concerted efforts to address this pressing issue.
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Data form
#NES2024PrePoll
paints a stark picture: Trust in the
#ElectionCommission
has plummeted compared to five years ago. Though there's a slight rise in trust, the number of sceptics has doubled. Vital for democracy, restoring faith in electoral processes is imperative.
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Latest piece from
@LoknitiCSDS
in
@the_hindu
by
@PalshikarSuhas
and
@SandeepShastri2
explores
#BJP
's 2014 promises of prosperity & economic expansion. With growing concerns over inequality, it begs the question: How do citizens view their
#economicstatus
now, a decade later?
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Our data from
#NES2024
#prepoll
survey shows
#NDA
leading by 12 percentage points ahead of
#2024elections
, thanks to the
#Modifactor
. But, rising concerns on
#livelihoodissues
hint at a tough battle ahead.
#Election2024
#IndiaVotes
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The
@LoknitiCSDS
'
#NES2024PrePoll
data,
#unemployment
holds the top spot as the single most important voting issue, followed by the issue of
#pricerise
. While popular issues such as that of
#corruption
and
#RamMandir
were not mentioned by voters as their most important concerns.
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Some of the key findings of our recent survey among
#Delhi
's poor have been highlighted in today's
@the_hindu
Data Point.
* 75% had to give up their jobs during the
#pandemic
* Most got free food & grains from the govt, but very few received financial help
* 63% borrowed money
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@LoknitiCSDS
द्वारा
@Live_Hindustan
में हाल ही में प्रकाशित एक लेख में उनके
#NES2024PrePoll
के आंकड़ों पर प्रकाश डाला गया है, जिसमें #बेरोजगारी को सबसे महत्वपूर्ण मतदान मुद्दा बताया गया है, इसके बाद #मूल्यवृद्धि का मुद्दा है।
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In our latest article for
@ieexplained
's Telling Numbers series we focus on youth attitudes towards marriage. Are young Indians marrying later than before? How okay are they with inter-caste/religious unions? Are arranged marriages intact? Lokniti's Vibha Attri analyses the data
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"Mr Modi still remains very popular among Delhi’s voters, but findings of the Delhi Governance Study indicated that Mr Kejriwal trumped Mr Modi by over 10 percentage points." -
@sanjaycsds
and
@absurdly_yours
#DelhiElections2020
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Lokniti- CSDS, Delhi invites applications for 'Field Investigators' (preferably female candidates).
Start Date: April 2023.
Duration: 1 month
Interested candidates may apply through the google link:
Applications are open till 20th March 2023.
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How India lives
👇🏽
Distribution of households by number of rooms
No exclusive room 3.9%
1 room 37.1%
2 rooms 31.7%
3 rooms 14.5%
4 rooms 7.5%
5 rooms 2.6%
6+ rooms 2.8%
Source: Census 2011
#CoronaLockdown
#SocialDistancing
69% of India families live in up to 2 room house, 4% do not have any house, with such family size isolation at home becomes a challenge.
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Digging into the
#campaignbeats
@LoknitiCSDS
's latest in
@the_hindu
, by
@sanjaycsds
, Vibha Attri, Aditi Singh, Vandita Gupta, and Naina Eve Gupta, dives deep into a Lokniti study analyzing 150
#YouTube
#campaignsongs
from Congress and BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
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"Except in
#Assam
, there was no strong desire in any of the States for a 'double engine' government."
-
@LoknitiCSDS
' Post-Poll Analysis for
@the_hindu
(Day 1).
Read here:
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In the battle of guarantees between
#Modi
and
#RahulGandhi
, voter enthusiasm seems lukewarm. Only a small fraction show high trust: 23% in Modi's guarantees, 17% in Rahul's.
#BJP
holds a slight edge over Congress.
#Election2024
#Guarantees
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The decision of the
#Congress
to give 40% of its tickets to women in
#UPElections2022
has certainly set a positive agenda, even if it does not help the party electorally.
@sanjaycsds
explains
0
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For what it's worth, here's our vote estimate for the Bihar election based on our Post Poll, the fieldwork for which concluded earlier today. Details from the survey on how Bihar voted will be shared once the result is out tomorrow.
#BiharElections2020
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CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: Lokniti-Programme for Comparative Democracy, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, invites applications for ‘Workshop on Quantitative Research Methods 2023’.
@LoknitiCSDS
@csdsdelhi
Click to know more:
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It's been brought to our notice that a fake pre-poll survey on Delhi polls using our name is being circulated on WhatsApp and other social media. We'd like to clarify that no such data has been released from our end. Lokniti-CSDS is not responsible for any of this misinformation.
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A majority of Hindus said they felt close to the BJP. Four of five Muslims said they disliked the party.
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We released our report 'Women & Politics' yesterday. Based on the survey-data of 6K+ women in 11 States, it highlights the changing trends in the political participation of women in India. The executive summary of the report can be read here:
@KASonline
0
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#TellingNumbers
with
@IndianExpress
:
In view of the mandatory registration for 18-44 on
#CoWin
for
#COVIDVaccination
, Lokniti's
@ManjeshRana_
highlights the
#digitaldivide
in India. Nearly half the age group doesn't own a
#smartphone
.
Read here:
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Lokniti-CSDS Bihar Pre Poll Survey
Question asked to voters: Should the JDU-BJP government in Bihar get another chance?
No: 43%
Yes: 38%
Can't say: 19%
Sample size: 3731
Fieldwork: October 10-17
#BiharElections
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Our post poll analysis on
#Punjab
:
Majority of voters rated Channi's 6 mths negatively. However, Amarinder’s tenure was rated far worse and Channi may have actually helped Congress recover slightly. -
@ManjeshRana_
and Varun Goel.
Read here:
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📢Event alert: Tomorrow, Jun 10
⚡️Panel discussion on Women in Indian politics
Panelists:
@priyankac19
@manojkjhadu
@Sanjeev_aap
@LambaAlka
@AnilaSingh_BJP
@ghanshyamtiwari
Moderator: Prof Rajeshwari Deshpande
⚡️And launch of
@sanjaycsds
ed. 'Women Voters in Indian Elections'
1
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Lokniti-CSDS surveys gave clear evidence of Nitish Kumar's popularity during the intial years of his chief ministership. But there has been a steady decline in his appeal in the past 5 to 7 years. The latest change may dent Kumar's image further -
@sanjaycsds
#BiharPolitics
2
6
46
Our statement on the detention of Lokniti's Sikkim coordinator and some of the students working as field investigators in the post-poll survey for Sikkim.
0
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43
Our post poll analysis on
#UttarPradesh
for
@the_hindu
:
How did the Hindu and Muslim vote trend in constituencies which had a significant Muslim presence?
@SandeepShastri2
and
@sanjaycsds
explain.
Read here:
1
16
46
Our post poll analysis on
#Punjab
:
AAP has struck a robust and all-round social support across various fault lines, chosen by all sections of the Punjab voters. Here is
@sanjaycsds
,
@PalshikarSuhas
& Chanda Rani's explainer.
Read here:
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44
From our Nov-Dec 2019 Governance Survey in Delhi
Voters’ satisfaction with the performance of…
• AAP govt. in Delhi 86%
• BJP govt. at Centre 74%
• AAP MLAs (overall) 64%
• Municipal Councillors (overall) 59%
• BJP's Delhi MPs (overall) 55%
#DelhiElections2020
2
18
44
According our recent
#NES2024PrePoll
study, nearly three fifth of respondents feel that getting
#jobs
has become more difficult compared to the last five years, underscores the prevailing challenges in the
#jobmarket
, only a proportion of 12 percent find it easier.
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0
10
46
The
@LoknitiCSDS
#prepoll
study unveils insights into Indian voters' perspectives on the government's actions. While 34% see the revocation of
#Article370
positively, 16% support it with reservations. Surprisingly, 20% aren't aware of Article 370.
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Young
#Muslims
“stand somewhat apart” from their
#Hindu
,
#Sikh
, and
#Christian
cohorts as they are the only community to have recorded a significant decline in religious activities.
Here's another piece by
@ThePrintIndia
on our recent
#YouthSurvey2021
.
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41
As
#SocialMedia
companies face pressure from the govt to comply with its new IT rules, here is our 6th article of the
#TellingNumber
series with
@IndianExpress
tracing the growth of
#Twitter
#Facebook
#Instagram
#Whatsapp
&
#YouTube
since 2014.
Read here:
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Lokniti's annual two-week workshop on Analyzing Quantitative Data on Politics is now underway at
@jlubhopal
. Participants this year are from 10 states of India as well as from Bangladesh. This is the 14th Summer School being organized by Lokniti and the first since the pandemic.
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📢Lokniti invites applications for the Summer Workshop on ‘Analyzing Quantitative Data on Indian Politics’ to be held in June in collaboration with Jagran Lakecity University, Bhopal.
Deadline: April 4, 2022
More details:
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43
Lokniti-CSDS
#PrePoll
Voting intention recorded in 2nd half of October
#MadhyaPradesh
: BJP 41% Cong 40% BSP 6% Oth. 13% (N-5512)
#Rajasthan
: Cong 45%, BJP 41% BSP 2% Oth. 12% (N-5554)
#Chhattisgarh
: BJP 43% Cong 36% JCC-BSP+ 15% Oth. 6% (N-3026)
#AssemblyElections2018
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25
42
Our post poll analysis on
#Uttarakhand
:
As in UP, in UK too merely the benefit of free ration did not guarantee BJP votes. Cash transfers seem to have been more important in getting voter support. -Shreyas Sardesai & Rakesh Negi
Read here:
2
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41
A Lokniti-CSDS study on slums in Delhi examines whether the ‘Delhi model of governance’ also applies to those residing in slums, and taps into experiences of slum dwellers with respect to quality of basic amenities.
2
13
41
Our post poll analysis on
#UttarPradesh
for
@the_hindu
:
All across UP, farming households voted more for BJP+ than SP+. Why did the farmers' movement fail to impact the election?
@ManjeshRana_
and
@DrAkhilesh_Pal
disect the data.
Read here:
4
17
41
Sanjeer Alam's analysis in today's
@the_hindu
delves into the shift from promises to guarantees in electoral rhetoric, signaling heightened competition. The
@LoknitiCSDS
#NES2024PrePoll
survey sheds light on voter trust.
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Migrants from UP, Bihar constitute about 30% of Delhi’s electorate
% of Delhi's voters who...
Were born in DL 57%
Came from UP 20%
From BR/JH 9%
PB/HR 6%
RJ/MP/CG 3%
HP/UK 2%
Other parts: 3%
Source: Delhi Governance Survey, F/wk 22 Nov-3 Dec 2019. N=2,298
#DelhiElections2020
Delhi polls: Eye on Purvanchalis, BJP & Congress ally with JD(U), RJD
0
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1
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@LoknitiCSDS
's latest piece by
@sanjaycsds
,
@PalshikarSuhas
,
@SandeepShastri2
and Sanjay Lodha, in
@the_hindu
, highlights Rajasthan's penchant for choosing different parties. The BJP's triumph in the recent elections adds another twist to the revolving door trend.
@csdsdelhi
1
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42
#BJP
has frequently used the phrase ‘double engine government’ in assembly
#election
campaigns since 2014. As it does so yet again ahead of
#AssemblyElections2022
, Lokniti's
@jmishra23
looks at how the idea has fared among voters over the years. Read here:
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The data from our latest
#NES2024PrePoll
study shows that the
#farmers
' cause resonates widely, demanding attention and resolution.
-63 percent of farmers assert their
#genuinedemands
in the ongoing protest, while only a small proportion of 11 percent see it as a
#conspiracy
.
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An interesting finding from our Nov-Dec 2019 survey in Delhi - the city has more TikTok users than Twitter users.
• WhatsApp: 65%
• YouTube: 60%
• Facebook: 56%
• Instagram: 34%
• TikTok: 29%
• Twitter: 20%
#DelhiElections2020
1
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38
An analysis of the Delhi
#MCDResults
2022 by Jyoti Mishra(
@jmishra23
) and Vibha Attri in The Indian Express.
@csdsdelhi
@IndianExpress
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40
In this article for
@IndianExpress
,
@sanjaycsds
,
@jmishra23
and Vibha Attri share some of the key findings related to
#Occupation
,
#Employment
#Marriage
and
#MentalHealth
from our recent
#YouthSurvey2021
.
Read here:
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Watch the first set of findings of the CSDS-Lokniti Pre Poll Survey on
@NewsHtn
tonight at 8 pm. You can also read a more detailed analysis starting tomorrow in
@the_hindu
and
@DainikBhaskar
.
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14
39
A recent
@LoknitiCSDS
study in
@the_hindu
by
@sanjaycsds
,
@PalshikarSuhas
,
@SandeepShastri2
and Vibha Attri unveils the stark reality of
#inflation
's impact on
#Delhi
's
#slum
dwellers, highlighting pressing concerns for marginalized communities.
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#YouthSurvey2021
| by Lokniti-
@csdsdelhi
@KASonline
: A sneak peek
How acceptable are inter-religious and inter-caste
#marriages
to
#young
#Indians
?
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Latest study by
@LoknitiCSDS
in
@the_hindu
, led by
@sanjaycsds
,
@SandeepShastri
,
@PalshikarSuhas
,
@jmishra23
,
@abhinav_borbora
, and Vibha Attri, talks about the political preferences of Delhi's youth (53% young women), shedding light on their choices for governance.
@csdsdelhi
2
17
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.
@GaonConnection
rural survey designed and analysed by Lokniti-CSDS
7 out of 10 rural households reported a drop in monthly household income during the lockdown
Fieldwork: May 30 to July 16
Coverage: 23 States/UTs
N=25,371
👇🏽
71% ग्रामीण परिवारों ने कहा कि लॉकडाउन के दौरान उनके परिवार की मासिक आय में गिरावट आई।
#GCRuralSurvey
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155
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A recent
@LoknitiCSDS
article in
@the_hindu
by
@PalshikarSuhas
and Aadyot Prakash unpacks the unexpected outcome of the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections. Surprising many, the BJP reclaimed power after the Congress's five-year tenure.
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4
39