#H5N1
is very likely to become a human
#pandemic
.
✴️Pandemic in birds for decades.
✴️Pandemic in more than 20 mammalian species for years.
✴️Pandemic in human food sources for this year (Cattle, poultry).
✴️14 spillover events (human infections) of the current cattle virus
@EM_RESUS
3 further observations of critical patients of mine that are about to code:
1. Their upper eyelid retracts (Muller’s muscle) due to the adrenalin surge. U see the white’s of their eyes, literally.
2. They often become incontinent .
3. Their skin becomes mottled, especially in
@1goodtern
We are seeing a very bad
#flu
and
#Covid
season in Australia. Far more viral infections are landing up on ventilators.
I haven’t seen so many young Flu A patients on ventilator’s since 2011 (H1N1).
One of the hospitals I work at in Sydney has reached full capacity, with
@EM_RESUS
And they get briefly restless, then stop complaining.
Skin mottles.
Pulse slows.
Almost peaceful.
Beware the quiet patient.
The noisy almost never code.
@EM_RESUS
@EM_RESUS
This is the reason London telephone boxes (the red ones with the windows) were banned . They were death traps because the elderly fainted inside from the heat, and then were prevented from falling to the ground because of the 4 walls. Every morning there were a few elderly dead
The
#H5N1
#pandemic
is here.
It’s ubiquitous in birds and chickens.
It’s in the cattle and food supply.
And it is spreading amongst humans.
At least 2 cases in Michigan (conjunctivitis).
And an imported case into Australia of an Indian girl who has no known contact with birds,
@DaniBeckman
It’s actually worse than that.
PB2 M631L is in cattle, birds, and now a human. PB E627K mutation was found in the Texas case, but he was M631L negative, which means there are other cattle lineages we haven’t fully sequenced, and don’t know the prevalence of.
The combination of
@CoronaHeadsUp
@CDCFlu
3/3 The
#H5N1
sequence from the TX human case having PB2 E627K but not M631L is notable b/c it means there’s likely a branch of the cattle outbreak that we don’t have any sequences from.
Further to the
#CDC
conclusion that it did not spread ‘efficiently between ferrets via respiratory droplets’:
✴️1 of 3 ferrets in a nearby, but separate cage, contracted the disease (presumably by droplet spread). This is alarming to me.
✴️This is most similar to previous
#H7N9
#H5N1
human cases are accelerating.
This is a pre-pandemic warning.
It’s already a
#pandemic
in birds and cattle (and many other mammals, especially sea mammals).
It’s in the food supply.
The northern hemisphere is about to enter winter.
I worry humans are next.
#birdflu
Here is why the developed world locks down from
#Mpox2024
before year end.
By the numbers:
✴️With international travel ,
#Mpox
will land on all of our doorsteps as it did in 2022. It probably already has.
✴️Clade 1b is nothing like Clade 2b (2022), or
#COVID
for that matter.
Very concerning for
#H5N1
spread either :
✴️H2H.
✴️Milk to human.
✴️Meat to human.
Big implications for all.
We need PB2 sequencing, contact virology and serology, and food testing urgently.
🚨📣 Anticipated sequence from human
#H5N1
case in Missouri w/ lack of clear exposure source, just released by
@CDCFlu
through
@GISAID
[EPI_ISL_19413343]. Clade 2.3.4.4b, similar to dairy cattle H5N1 virus. Sample collected 8/22/24, sequence took over 3 weeks to release!
Source
#Mpox
. Up to date summary.
#Mpox2024
#pandemic
#BREAKING
See map and resource below:
✴️Summary:
Clade 1a: lethal but local to Africa (for now).
Clade 1b: more infectious, less lethal , coming our way in 2024 ✈️✈️
Clade 2 : Endemic as an
#STD
in much of the world, mostly mild
@1goodtern
Thank u
@1goodtern
for this excellent thread.👏👏
✴️I’ve diagnosed 2 cases so far this year, both associated with haematological malignancies, and their treatment.
#immunosuppression
associated with these malignancies is usually when the
#JC
virus reactivates in the developed
#H5N1
on the march.
#BREAKING
The Missouri human case is extremely troubling.
If
@DrJeanneM
is correct and the virus is ‘almost certainly’ the cattle clade, and that the patient had zero contact with livestock there are only 2 possibles:
✴️Missouri has undiagnosed cattle
At meeting this week,
@NIAIDNews
's
@DrJeanneM
said of recent bird flu case in Missouri:
- "quite nervous" about case
- "predisposition to pulmonary infection"
- no contact to anything "remotely" tied to H5N1
-
@CDCgov
can't sequence much because high CT
@GISAID
have just released preliminary genetics on the third human case in
#Michigan
( with respiratory symptoms) .
The H5 looks like the previous Michigan case. The N1 looks like the Texan case.
No word on the all important
#PB2
mutations.
We know the importance of both the PB2
#BREAKING
#H5N1
on the march
A novel reassortment
#Burdflu
virus is reported from Cambodia
✴️The case was lethal.
✴️It contained external genes from the Cambodian virus circulating in birds, and internal genes from the US cattle virus.
✴️ ‘this reassortant has been linked
#BREAKING
Excellent article on
#Mpox
in
@NEJM
today:
This is effectively a ‘call to arms’ from medicines most prestigious journal.
#Mpox2024
#Pandemic
#vaccination
7 critical points:
✴️ ‘The rapid international spread of a new mpox subtype is of enormous concern’.
✴️’Most
#BREAKING
#Mpox2024
#Mpox
1b is infectious before symptoms appear.
Orthopox viruses are respiratory viruses.
Mpox, like its cousins, is aerosolised, and is spread before symptoms arise.
✴️ In an analysis of the 2022 outbreak of mpox the majority of cases were transmitted
#Mpox
on the move.
✴️My ISID (International Society of Infectious Diseases) alert emails are coming in rapidly today.
✴️Malawi, Gabon, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania Mpox alerts have all been sent to my inbox within the last hour.
✴️The below description of a case in Uganda is
This is an alarming development in possible mpox, in Uganda, right next to Kenya.
Everyone who came into contact with his body subsequently got sick.
Location
Src
Large retrospective trial out of
#Oxford
sheds light on
#mRNA
#vaccine
safety and effectiveness in kids in the UK immunisation registry.
#mRNA
vaccines are both safe and effective in kids.
🚨99% of vaccines were
#Pfizer
mRNA vaccines, the rest were
@leadlagreport
We were always going to have a credit event or a hyperinflation. 🎯🎯
It’s the timing that is unknown.
Beats me
@leadlagreport
‘There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come
#BREAKING
#H5N1
lighting up is US wastewater.
Excellent article in
@NEJM
by
@MikeTisza
✴️ ‘The widespread detection of influenza A(H5N1) virus in wastewater from 10 U.S. cities is troubling.’
✴️’Although the exact origin of the signal is currently unknown, the lack of
#H5N1
is likely far more prevalent than we know. The
#birdflu
#pandemic
is here.
🚨Endemic in birds, mammals, domesticated animals, cattle .
🚨prevalence in the US food supply .
🚨Imported human case into Australia with no contact with birds
🚨cats with no contact to birds or
Global experts sound alarm on
#H5N1
#pandemic
potential.
@RickABright
@JesseGoodmanMD
👏👏
“The time for decisive action is not when a pandemic strikes, but today, while we have the opportunity.”
“We need voluntary vaccination, improved vaccine stockpiles, and global
@RageSheen
These are the tests I do on my patients with similar symptoms:
I’m seeing lots of
#Mycoplasma
at present, in addition to the viral causes. She obviously needs a CXR, WCC, CRP to exclude a bacterial pneumonia. If all negative I look at the sinuses. Hope that helps
@RageSheen
This may well be the day
#silver
closes above $30 on a daily and weekly basis.
The
#shorts
must be getting scared.
As
@TaviCosta
points out, triple tops don’t exist in metals.
This may be the beginning of an epic bull market. 🚀🚀
Now we get to see how much physical is
The fact that this patient only had eye symptoms and otherwise mild is not the main point of concern.
The issue is ongoing spillover from animals to humans + human flu season getting nearer. Viral reassortment is the major issue given increasing risk of coinfection
#H5N1
@I_Am_JohnCullen
This is not poultry John. This will be a human pandemic. More US servicemen lost their lives in 2018 than did from the entirety of WW1 from the Spanish flu. I don’t scare easily, but antigenic shift
Flu scares me. It goes for the young and healthy.
#BREAKING
This is how
#Mpox
travel restrictions start.
✴️China-border checks
✴️Nigeria -border screening
✴️Fiji -below
✴️South Korea (quarantine)
✴️Many countries will follow with mandatory quarantines for passengers from hotspots.
✴️The world will shut down again, only slower
#H5N1
is mutating rapidly towards the next human
#pandemic
.
US cattle clade sequences are now positive for these PB2 adaptions that will allow efficient spread amongst humans.
✴️E627K
✴️Q591R/K
✴️D701N
✴️M631L
It’s a complex evolution, and the interactions of the various
With our new paper just out thought I'd write a brief thread about one of the ways avian influenza virus ('bird flu') adapts to mammals (with a focus on the polymerase).
Will aim to start off simple then get into the weeds!
@zerohedge
Watch total
#tax
take drop as the wealthy flee France’s 90% tax rate( at least their assets will).
This will be good for Lichtenstein, Singapore, jersey islands , and Bahamas .
This is not the first time France’s top marginal tax rate has been 90% .🤷♂️
Current African
#CDC
assessment of
#MPOX
.
#pandemic
alert. Cases are exploding.
It is spreading geographically in Africa.
✴️ ‘Since the beginning of 2022 and as of 28 July 2024, a total of 37,583 cases and 1,451 deaths (case fatality rate [CFR]: 3.9%)’
✴️ ‘In 2023 alone, 14,957
@DrEricDing
Thankfully we would know if there was efficient H2H spread as we would be seeing many cases in Australia right now. We have not found any other cases of H5N1 (human or animal) in Australia to date, though we are not looking very hard( no wastewater analysis).
@Globalbiosec
#H5N1
is likely far more prevalent than we know. The
#birdflu
#pandemic
is here.
🚨Endemic in birds, mammals, domesticated animals, cattle .
🚨prevalence in the US food supply .
🚨Imported human case into Australia with no contact with birds
🚨cats with no contact to birds or
Birdflu pandemic alert:
✴️3 poultry workers in Colorado (culling chickens on the same farm) have tested positive for
#H5N1
. Other workers are also symptomatic, but testing not back.
✴️They all had
#conjunctivitis
and
#respiratory
symptoms . The combination is of huge concern.
The
#H5N1
#pandemic
is here.
It’s ubiquitous in birds and chickens.
It’s in the cattle and food supply.
And it is spreading amongst humans.
At least 2 cases in Michigan (conjunctivitis).
And an imported case into Australia of an Indian girl who has no known contact with birds,
#BREAKING
#flu
#vaccination
#H5N1
The Holy Grail of flu prevention has proven successful in animal testing.
A Universal Flu Vaccine is to be trialled in humans soon (
#COBRA
)
This will prevent both seasonal influenza, and pandemic influenza (birdflu).
✴️Intranasal
#BREAKING
:
#Pandemic
watch:
7 critical pandemics occurring concurrently:
✴️
#Mpox
1a in Africa is exploding. It is killing kids.
✴️Mpox 1b is spreading rapidly in Africa, also few international cases.
✴️Mpox 2b : endemic in much of world. Cases are increasing rapidly.
#BREAKING
#pandemic
#Mpox24
✴️Africa reports a near doubling of
#Mpox
cases for this week (4000 vs 2500)
✴️81 deaths
✴️A number of new African countries are investigating possible cases ( Malawi, Namibia).
✴️The rapidity of spread , and clade 1b mutation rate, far exceeds
#BREAKING
✴️
#Mpox
death in Côte d'Ivoire.
✴️This is the first death from 1b in the country.
✴️ "28 confirmed cases, including one death" in Abidjan,
according to Dr. Daouda Coulibaly.
✴️Presumably 1b, although they don’t specifically say
#pandemic
#Mpox2024
@RickABright
#H5N1
continues its worldwide march to become humanity’s next
#pandemic
.
Today the
#USDA
reports new cases of mammalian spread:
✴️36 new mice outbreaks in New Mexico
✴️4 new feline outbreaks, one from
#Oklahoma
. The cat is Oklahoma's first detection of
#H5N1
in a mammal.
✴️We
#BREAKING
England , Spain and the Netherlands have issues alerts about an immediate threat of imported
#Mpox
1b cases.
What do they know that we don’t?
#Pandemic
This is a very important paper about
#H5N1
mutation evolution that has allowed expanded mammalian spread, and the risk this poses to becoming a human
#pandemic
.
✴️
#Flu
viruses require binding to Sialic acid receptors (SA) to cause disease.
✴️a2,3 SA receptor binding is required
#H5N1
continue to spread in US cattle.
✴️This is a slow motion train wreck.
✴️We need more up to date sequencing.
✴️We need cattle/poultry worker
#vaccinations
.
✴️We seem to be documenting history, rather than attempting to change it.🤷♂️🤷♂️
#birdflu
#pandemic
@RickABright
#H5N1
is rapidly spreading to all diary cattle herds in all states. Now up to 108 herds, although this is an underestimate due to the high concentrations of H5N1 in wastewater sites that have no documented outbreaks.
The
#CDC
still doesn’t separate H5 from seasonal flu on its
#gold
moonshot in China trading today.
#shortsqueeze
likely in US and London this week. 🔥🔥
$2300 gold, the
#miners
and
#silver
are in play.🚀🚀
We are about to witness what happens when physical buying trumps paper selling.
And for the first time we might get to see what
Worldwide
#gold
revaluation and
#remonetisation
is happening now, and it is planned.🚀🚀
🚨Gold was elevated to a tier 1 asset in BASEL 3.
🚨Central banks have been accumulating unprecedented amounts of physical gold and storing it locally.
🚨 Why else would European central
@DarioCpx
The heads of those 4 banks were in Shanghai last month . Scribes I trust think that this was a plea for physical
#silver
.
@MilesFranklinCo
did an excellent presentation on this yesterday as did
@TFMetals
a few days back. Silver can leave China,
#gold
can’t. Could they have paid
#regional
bank
#crisis
returning?
#CRE
loans are concentrated on regional bank balance sheets.
#BTFP
has now ended. $3.4 billion was borrowed in the last week, presumably by banks with balance sheet constraints🤷♂️.
Regional bank
#credit
card
#deliquincy
rates have never been
@DrCameronMurray
Ask your local restaurateur how bussiness is. My friends that own restaurants in the eastern suburbs of Sydney say things are dire, customers are down, costs are up.
Restaurants are a pretty good gage on discretionary spending.
Worldwide
#gold
revaluation and
#remonetisation
is happening now, and it is planned.🚀🚀
🚨Gold was elevated to a tier 1 asset in BASEL 3.
🚨Central banks have been accumulating unprecedented amounts of physical gold and storing it locally.
🚨 Why else would European central
@DrIanWeissman
#H5N1
has been a pandemic in birds for decades.
It has been a pandemic in more than 20 mammalian species for years.
It has been a pandemic in human food sources for this year (Cattle, poultry).
There have been 14 spillover events of the current cattle virus into humans this
If I’m reading this correctly then
#H5N1
now has acquired further important
#mutations
that make it more likely to adapt to H2H spread. Thus far US cattle and human cases have had one or the other of the following PB2 mutations.
Now South Dakota cattle have both.🤷♂️🤷♂️
PB2:
A new mammal adaptive
#H5N1
mutation showed up for the first time today in the US cattle outbreak. N105S on the PB1 protein found in South Dakota.
Paper on its possible implications for mammal adaptation:
Updated this with more info: The contact and the confirmed case became ill the same day, suggesting a possible mutual exposure. Missouri's Dept of Health & Senior Services says serological testing "is being considered."
#H5N1
#birdflu
A health worker experienced mild symptoms,
5/
Summary:
✴️
#H5N1
spreads between cows via both the milking equipment , and the respiratory route.
✴️H5N1 has now acquired the mutations necessary to result in airborne spread between cattle.
✴️The cattle with respiratory infection are often asymptomatic, so would be silent
✴️
#MPOX
clade 1b is coming our way.
✴️
#TPOXX
Is the only treatment
✴️
#Jynnios
is the best vaccination
✴️We could have eradicate this in DRC.
But we provided no redirects to do this.
Now it may be too late.
✴️Now we will need to reintroduce a
#POX
vaccine into the childhood
@EM_RESUS
Monomorphic VT. Outside chance of flutter with aberrant conduction ( but very fast for that. U can tell the difference post D/C cardioversion if the axis is the same).
@EM_RESUS
SGEand SFE gold continued to boom after opening today. Currently, SGE gold is ¥525.08/g =$2260.40/oz, and SFE gold is ¥527.08/g=$2265.93/oz. Meanwhile, silver surged.
Well said
@RickABright
👏👏.
There is little concern, or leadership at the highest levels
@CDCFlu
@USDAFoodSafety
@WHO
@CDCDirector
.
✴️We need full genomic sequencing of all mammalian cases of
#H5N1
shortly after diagnosis.
✴️We need to expand testing dramatically.
✴️Without
#H5N1
has not gone away:
✴️California reports possible bird flu outbreaks in 3 dairy herds.
✴️Bird flu outbreaks in dairy herds likely underreported due to limited testing
✴️ ‘In unpublished research…the virus is detectable 14 to 16 days before farms saw a significant
#MPOX
has not gone away.
✴️MPOX has now spread to 23 of 26 provinces in the DRC.
✴️The disease is spreading through various contact forms, including sexual, nonsexual, household, and healthcare.
✴️Clade 1b predominantly affects kids( 39% of cases).
✴️Mortality is 5%.
🧐Clade 1b
@6NewsAU
Ridiculous that no one in the infectious diseases community like myself knew anything about this until now. No internal medical channels were activated to the best of my knowledge. Did the patient fly through Sydney, where I work at one of the major hospitals admitting infectious
@LazarusLong13
Historical data on Orthopoxviruses confirm airborne routes of transmission ( they are respiratory viruses). There is no data suggesting clade 1b is any different .
There is a difference between ‘airborne droplets’ and ‘aerosolised’… but both cause airborne spread. The DRC RO
#H5N1
is rapidly spreading to all diary cattle herds in all states. Now up to 108 herds, although this is an underestimate due to the high concentrations of H5N1 in wastewater sites that have no documented outbreaks.
The
#CDC
still doesn’t separate H5 from seasonal flu on its
Complicated thread on the human case of
#H5N1
from Missouri.
Take-aways.
✴️This virus has previously only been found in 1 cattle herd from Texas.
✴️This virus has adaptions that allow it to bind to human throat receptors (a2,6 SA).
This is the first case of
#flu
food
Here is analysis of HA mutations in H5 influenza case in Missouri resident without known contact w animals or raw milk.
TLDR: there is one HA mutation that strongly affects antigenicity, and another that merits some further study.
3/
Airborne infected cows:
Respiratory disease was mild in the heifers, but infection was confirmed by replicating virus detection in the airways and lungs , as well as seroconversion. Thus asymptomatic cows are able to spread H5N1 to the rest of the herd.
#BREAKING
#Mpox
1b alert in Thailand.
#pandemic
#Mpox2024
✴️Symptomatic patient flew from DRC, via Middle East, to Thailand 14/8.
✴️This is Clade 1b (Clade 2 excluded by testing).
✴️International spread has started (Sweden, Thailand).
✴️African spread continues.
It has not yet been definitively determined whether a foreign national who traveled from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is infected with the new mpox Clade 1b strain, said Dr. Thongchai Keeratihattayakorn, Director-General of the Department of Disease Control (DDC).
Dr.
First case of lethal human
#H5N2
reported from Mexico.
No exposure to birds.
Could this be a reassortment virus from
#H3N2
that is already circulating seasonally in the human population, and
#H5N1
?🤷♂️🤷♂️
Very worrying. Thankfully no close contact contagion.
Thank u
@DrEricDing
NEW—The WHO & Mexico reports world’s first-ever human case & death from H5N2 bird flu (another bird flu type, not the H5N1 that’s more active lately). 59-year-old died in Mexico City and had **ZERO** exposure contact with any poultry or other animals. Close contacts negative too.
@adamjkucharski
I agree
@adamjkucharski
.
The
#CDC
maintains that
#H5N1
is a low risk for humanity. The
#WHO
has neither declared a PHEIC or a Pandemic Emergency. With this degree of apathy , national health authorities are in limbo.
Quarantine policies won’t work.
Only pre-emotive
#vaccination
@MarioNawfal
Seems silly. Hope he gets to go for a swim.
A victory for free speech , and freedom of expression.
@JulianAssange_
you will be welcomed home in Australia as a hero.
#BREAKING
#MPOX
: 6 key facts :
1. Clade 1b is much more severe than the Clade 2 pandemic in 2022. 2024 will be 2022 on steroids.
2. It is aerosolised.
3. Kids are preferentially infected, and have a higher mortality.
4. We have an effective vaccine , and there is safety
@DaniBeckman
It’s actually worse than that.
PB2 M631L is in cattle, birds, and now a human. PB E627K mutation was found in the Texas case, but he was M631L negative, which means there are other cattle lineages we haven’t fully sequenced, and don’t know the prevalence of.
The combination of
#BREAKING
Fatal case of
#H1N1v
(
#swineflu
) variant virus in Vietnam.
✴️Variant
#Flu
viruses are viruses that circulate in pigs, and not humans.
✴️first ever reported human infection caused by influenza A(H1N1)v virus in Viet Nam.
✴️Source unknown ( no obvious swine exposure).
✴️ U.S. Agriculture Secretary
@SecVilsack
authorises the first trial of an
#H5N1
#vaccine
for cattle.
✴️Unsure which vaccine is being trialed ( Ceva and Medgene are contenders).
✴️’A vaccination strategy could be critical in curbing disease spread but could be difficult to
The Missouri case of H5
#birdflu
is concerning.
#pandemic
#H5N1
✴️This is the only case of bird flu in the US without an obvious animal source.
✴️We don’t yet know the sequencing (or even the Neuraminidase).
✴️Could this be the first case of H2H spread, or human infection
4/
Disease in lactating cows was significant, as previously reported . Infection was confirmed by high levels of viral RNA detected in milk, virus isolation, lesions in mammary tissue, and seroconversion. Viral persistence was evident at 24 days post inoculation.
#H5N1
is very likely to become a human
#pandemic
.
✴️Pandemic in birds for decades.
✴️Pandemic in more than 20 mammalian species for years.
✴️Pandemic in human food sources for this year (Cattle, poultry).
✴️14 spillover events (human infections) of the current cattle virus
✴️My opinion: If pandemic flu does arrive, we will save many lives if every Australian has a 20 mg tablet of Baloxavir on hand (or Tamiflu course as a minimum). The cost will be negligible compared to the only other option, lockdowns.
✴️But to stand any chance we need urgent
#BREAKING
✴️It is highly likely there are already many cases of
#Mpox
1b already in many travel nodes in Europe, and around the world.
✴️The incubation period is a couple of weeks , and testing for 1b takes longer. These cases will be diagnosed in the coming weeks.