Here is the comparison of Mid tropospheric flow.. We could see mid lat westerly trough to the North & two anticycloninc flow bringing moist winds & dry winds from two different sides converging over North coastal TN.. Atmospheric setup could be same but other factors like

Actual LLC & the active rain bands over the western periphery that is dominant .. #Chennai #ChennaiRains #NEM2025 #Cyclone #Monthacyclone #Cyclonemontha #Cyclonealert #Rainalert #TNRains #TamilNadu #AndhraPradesh

HWRF better simulating the active SW quadrant which is dominant with a persistent deep convection .. Present LLC trying to merge with it during the course of time.. #NEM2025 #ChennaiRains #Cyclonemontha #Monthacyclone #Update #Cycloneupdate #AndhraPradesh

GFS seen giving significance to NER (Near Eq ridge) which restricted westward movement, North Bay anticyclone associated ridge didnt extend like what ECM projects. Importantly It allowed this disturbance to detach from parent ER wave but ecm keeping it inside so moving Northwest

Of late many are into discussion why there is literally no winds. Technically speaking we are now falling inside a "col region"where winds wud be nil/calmdiverge Two low pressure areas on either sides of the southern India & pressure here will be relatively higher when compared

NEM is generally a wind reversal followed by rains We cant expect rains to pour simultaneously when winds set-in tat too with no disturbance First wind establish & then rains happen Gummidipoondi 17cm Ponneri-13cm Parts of Chennai have got fairly 8-10cm in the last 48hrs

@ECMWF ens remains rigid with steady NW track into NTN/SAP. Meanwhile 2 important things to highlight here is that the models delaying the main event significantly to 27/28th but still 23/24th oct would be still under watch for heavy rains through fresh disturbance/E-W trough

Suppressed phase of an eq wave to cause a brief disruption to the negative IOD standing wave & once it eases away ,we may again see a full blown effect of -IOD in the coming weeks.. hence W-NW moving anomalous rain wave/disturbances would extend the monsoon. dc @ECMWF #Monsoon

Cooler waters of SE Arb sea to suppress rains for kerala/kar?? Invisible northward moving band affecting S.India?? Catch the long update on ongoing weather .. Intense ,organized thunderstorm clusters struck several parts of TN this afternoon-evening not sure whether this could

Animated GIF shows an unusual cooling trend over the Arb sea at this part of the season compared with the last 5 years.. 2025 clearly stands out... dc @NASAEarth @GHRSST #Monsoon #Monsoon2025 #SWM2025 #IOD #LaNina #Indianocean #Update #Kerala #keralarains #KarnatakaRains

Large swath of cooler anomalies extends further over arb sea & Low level westerly jet continues to remain stronger than normal.. LLJ unusually stronger than normal more more often end up as good/excess monsoon year.. charts @TropicalTidbits #Monsoon #Monsoon2025 #SWM2025 #MJO

A classical picture of an active phase of monsoon in the core monsoon region with anomalous cyclonic circulations/Trough in the lower /Mid Troposphere & anomalous anticyclonic circulations causing large scale suppression over southern peninsular India in the

An exclusive post where we tried to assess "2025 June rainfall deficit over peninsular India" through the changes that are seen in the local/large scale atmospheric setup.. When it comes to South Asian monsoon, there may be an interplay of several global/local factors at the

Large parts of Arabian sea is seen under extensive cooling trend!! will this pave way for Negative IOD event development or just temporary?? Lets see... Interesting days ahead as we move into peak weeks of monsoon #Monsoon #Monsoon2025 #SWM2025 #Negativeiod #LaNina #Cooling

Less number of heat waves / no proper heat waves, frequent cloudy days, & rainy weather was a great relief for the common man but not for the prime business sectors. "Unusual May 2025 " had a positive impact on few sectors but also a negative impact on primary /secondary

"Unusual May " 2025 - "The Chain reaction" I see this entire episode as a chain reaction in the atmosphere where one event result had an impact on the follow up system & subsequently it influenced the other one & the other one influenced the other .. so "Timing" of these

Almost 30-35% covered as we could see the rough/approximate line of NLM passing through peninsular India after making onset over #Kerala 3 days back.. we could see the changes in wind speed, temperature & moisture profile where the monsoon winds had moved in.. An anomalous

A few are questioning @Indiametdept IMD about its monsoon declaration over Mumbai saying that there are no deeper westerlies in the atmosphere and why the monsoon has been declared. To answer this question, I attach a text from IMD's document. It says "The new criteria emphasise

Congratulations @Selwyyyyn for your first contribution to the international community of weather and climate science 💐👏😊. Hearty Congratulations to all the authors of this publication. 💐👏😊. Wishing you @Selwyyyyn many more in the future.

Look at the flow on the day when Southwest monsoon onset was declared for #SriLanka during the last 5 years.. Cross Eq flow in the form of SW'ly winds looks firmly established &strong sweeping the island of Srilanka .. with that comparison, 2025 looks weird ,isn't??? .. Charts :