Political scientist & economist obsessed with data and on a mission to turn it into actionable information. I use X, Mastodon & Bluesky for the war in 🇺🇦.
Iceland joins the IT and Demining coalitions!
Also, Iceland announced additional €340,000 in financing through NATO's Comprehensive Assistance Package to purchase medical equipment for Ukraine.
We are grateful to our 🇮🇸 partners.
Through our joint efforts, we will be able…
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE
I'm not claiming that Russia is running out of equipment. Their stockpiles are huge. However, the data indicates that the quality of the military equipment is getting worse.
⚡️ TROOP LOSSES REACH NEW HEIGHTS
The 7-day average for 🇷🇺 troop losses has not been higher since daily reporting started back in March and we are only seeing the first batches of unprepared conscripts being pushed to the frontlines.
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⚡️ MILESTONE: 1,000+ 🇷🇺 TANKS LOST
These are visually confirmed. Actual losses likely higher. The share of older tanks has been rising throughout the war. Since August 1, Soviet made tanks account for 53% of the losses. In total, they account for 38%.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN TANK LOSSES UPDATE
This is my visual representation of the great work done by 🇨🇿
@Rebel44CZ
on behalf of
@oryxspioenkop
.
Otherwise, the numbers speak for themselves.
See dashboard for further analysis.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE LOSSES
Since Aug 29, 342 🇷🇺 equipment losses have been visually confirmed (may include some older losses).
+143% increase compared to the 2 weeks before that.
🆕 Field reports indicate 1200+ losses.
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⚡️ COUNTER-OFFENSIVE: 🇷🇺 LOSSES AS OF SEP 13
541 🇷🇺 equipment losses have now been visually confirmed in the counter-offensive, of which 55% was captured intact.
+99 losses added between days
Field reports indicate 1,361 losses in the same period.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
My 🇨🇿 colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 27 more officers to his list. This means that in the last 30 days, 4.9 officers have been killed per day, with senior officers 24% thereof. See dashboard for further analysis.
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⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE
Tank supply based on the 2021 edition of Military Balance. Russia has already lost between 46% and 89% of deployed tanks. Supposedly there are more in storage but one must wonder about their quality.
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⚡️ VERIFIED TANK LOSSES - NOV 2023
Of the 5,551 tank losses indicated by Ukrainian field reports at the end of November, the
@WarSpotting
team has been able to verify 38% or 2,088 so far.
Overall, tanks made during the Soviet era are 49% of the verified losses, but 59% when we…
As the Portuguese have a great sense of humour, most of the people that have visited my profile today have welcomed the idea that they might have had something to do with the bombing of the Kerch bridge and added suggestions of how it would have been done.🙂
⚡️ 🇷🇺 TANK LOSSES BY AGE
51% of destroyed or damaged tanks made before 1991, unchanged from October
45% of captured or abandoned tanks made before 1991, up from 44% in October
Based on visually confirmed losses from
@oryxspioenkop
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⚡️ ANALYSIS OF TANK LOSSES 🆕
128 tank losses have been visually confirmed during the counteroffensive. In addition the type of 29 older losses has been narrowed down.
66% of destroyed ones are older tanks while 65% of captured ones are newer.
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⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
: Tank losses by age
A long overdue update (kiitos
@Ilcaccio
🇫🇮 for the nudge!). The share of older tanks has been well above average in the last two months.
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⚡️ MONTHLY RUSSIAN TANK LOSSES
Unusually high share of 56 visually confirmed tank losses in September new or modernized tanks.
Based on data from
@oryxspioenkop
.
Field reports indicate 255 losses in the period.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
My 🇨🇿 friend and colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 18 more 🇷🇺 officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 5.3 officers have been killed per day and senior officers are 22% thereof - a ratio that has been lowering.
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This means that on average Russia has been losing 5 tanks each day since the start of the war, which are visually confirmed, or up to 11 per day, if we go by reported losses.
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 with 66 🇷🇺 officers
Since the start of the war, 4.8 have been killed per day
Average for last four batches: 3.8 (⬆ 0.34)
Date of death established for 2,130 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
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The Ukrainian armed forces eliminated at least 2 288 Russian officers as of 13 June 2023.
Based on publicly available data from Russia. Confirmations are made via funeral notices, obituaries and news sites. Names and sources can be found in the table in our profile.
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE, OCT 30
Record troop losses (since 1st wave)
TODAY'S REPORT:
950 soldiers killed ⬆
7-day average: 533 ⬆
109 equipment lost ⬆
7-day average: 69 ⬆
VISUALLY CONFIRMED:
3.6x counteroffensive ⬇
2.3x last 30 days ⬇
3.6x in total ➡
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 with 36 officers
On average, 5.0 have been killed per day (4.6 in the last four batches, up between updates).
Date of death established for 1,577 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿
1,647 now confirmed to have been killed, an average of 5.1 per day since start of war or 3.0 for the last four batches (≈ one month)
Date of death established for 1,462 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
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🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (1 of 6)
While it may be tempting to assume that 🇺🇦 field reports are on par with 🇷🇺 propaganda, they have actually become better over time and correlate pretty well with OSINT data in the last few weeks. My first real 🧵.
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
My 🇨🇿 friend and colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 32 🇷🇺 officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 5.7 officers have been killed per day, and senior officers are 26% thereof. See dashboard for development.
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I was inspired by
@Ilcaccio
to make an analysis of reported losses by weekdays. It turns out that SUN (!) has the highest reported troop losses and WED the highest equipment losses. MON has the lowest activity overall (shared with SAT for equipment).
⚡️RUSSIAN TANK LOSSES IN JULY
Better late than never! 😀
64% of 105 confirmed tank losses in July were tanks made before the fall of the USSR (well above the total ratio of 52%). Based on data from
@oryxspioenkop
.
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⚡️ 🇷🇺 SHELLING: DEC 17
72 locations reported today, decrease between days and below the 7-day average of 80
Includes 2 new locations
Map below shows last 7 days, pie charts today
Visit
@DefMon3
for further context
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 with 54 🇷🇺 officers
Since the start of the war, 4.9 officers have been killed per day
Average for last four batches: 3.8 (⬆ 0.15)
Date of death established for 2,091 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
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@DefenceU
Highlights:
Double-digit Tank, Artillery & APV losses
Development of reported losses:
4x daily changes over 7-day average
5x 7-day average increases
See dashboard 📈 for further information on claimed and visually confirmed losses:
⚡️ GSUA SHELLINGS REPORT FROM AUG 7
83 settlements reported to have been shelled, which is below the 7-day average which now stands at 106. Shellings of Kharkiv have gone down, compared to last week.
Check out
@DefMon3
for an in-depth analysis.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICERS KILLED IN UKRAINE
My 🇨🇿 friend and colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 24 🇷🇺 officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 4.1 officers have been killed per day, and senior officers are 20% thereof. See dashboard for development.
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⚡️ TANK LOSSES IN
#UKRAINE
: MARCH 2023
Development of visually confirmed 🇷🇺 tank losses as reported by
@oryxspioenkop
This amounts to 53% of 🇷🇺 tank losses in 🇺🇦 field reports
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UDPATED TANK LOSSES
2,734 🇷🇺 tanks are now reported lost of which 1,423 have been visually confirmed. These are up to 80% of the tanks 🇷🇺 had at its disposal at the start of 2022 (compared to up to 75% on Oct 18 when I made my last ad hoc analysis).
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⚡️ RUSSIAN SHELLINGS UPDATED
The dashboard now also shows the number of times towns have been hit in the last 7 days compared to the 7 days before (weekly change). In addition you can see shellings in a single town or oblast by clicking on its name.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
that includes the 6th Major General.
6.2 officer deaths per day on average in the last four batches compared to 5.0 per day since the start of the war.
See dashboard for further analysis.
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At least 3 237 Russian officers have been eliminated in Ukraine since 24. February 2022.
Confirmation for each name from a Russian source is available in our dataset — obituary, grave, memorial plaque, etc.
⚡️ BILATERAL AID TO 🇺🇦
Based on data from
@kielinstitute
, I've recalculated using the most recent GDP from IMF, and converted into USD for an international audience.
Top 3 as share of GDP:
1 Latvia ⬆️
2 Estonia ⬇️
3 Poland ➡️
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
My 🇨🇿 friend and colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 23 officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 5.4 officers have been killed per day, and senior officers are 25% thereof - an increase. See dashboard for development.
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1 323 killed Russian officers as of 16 October.
Minimum confirmed losses. Confirmations are made via publicly available data from Russia, such as funeral notices, obituaries or news sites.
⚡️ RUSSIAN TANK LOSSES BY AGE UPDATED
44 tanks visually confirmed to be destroyed or damaged in January (and 33 more in February so far) - 41% made before the fall of USSR
51% of the 1,054 losses since the start of the war have been Soviet made
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⚡️MONTHLY RUSSIAN TANK LOSSES
63% of 86 confirmed tank losses in August were tanks made before the fall of the USSR (again above the total ratio of 55%) based on data from
@oryxspioenkop
. Field reports indicate 225 losses in the period.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
with 44 🇷🇺 officers bringing to total up to 1,820
On average, 5.1 have been killed per day (5.3 in the last four batches & up between updates)
Date of death established for 1,743 by
@splussi
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿.
1,602 are now confirmed to have been killed, an average of 5.2 per day (down by 0.03 between updates).
Date of death established for 1,387 (87%) by
@splussi
🇨🇦.
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⚡️ OVERVIEW OF RUSSIAN SHELLINGS IN 🇺🇦
Based on data by
@DefMon3
who also offers fantastic regular updates on the war. I've added the whole of July. These are not 🇺🇦 strikes as I implied in an earlier tweet. Sorry about that. Work in progress.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
My 🇨🇿 friend and colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 21 🇷🇺 officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 5.7 officers have been killed per day, and senior officers are 22% thereof. See dashboard for further analysis.
📈
1 283 killed Russian officers as of 9 October.
Minimum confirmed losses. Confirmations are made via publicly available data from Russia, such as funeral notices, obituaries or news sites.
⚡️ RUSSIAN LOSSES IN
#UKRAINE
7-day average of Russian troop losses has more than tripled since the Ukrainians started their counteroffensive at the end of August and is now at record high.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS - DEC 8, 2023
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 has added +41 🇷🇺 officers
Since the start of the war, 5.0 killed per day (unchanged)
Average for last four batches: 6.1 per day (-0.08)
Date of death established for 3,142 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿.
1,560 are now confirmed to have been killed, an average of 5.3 per day (down from 5.4 between updates).
Date of death established for 1,332 by
@splussi
🇨🇦.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
The next batch of 🇷🇺 officers is here.
@KilledInUkraine
has added 32 more officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 5.8 officers have been killed per day - lower than last time but the long-term trend is upwards.
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⚡️ VISUALLY CONFIRMED TANK LOSSES
122 Russian tanks were added to the records of Oryx in February, of which 57 were captured or abandoned. 54% were made in the Soviet era while the rest were either made or modified after 1991, up from previous month.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS - APR 20, 2024
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 latest batch of 35 brings total to 3,975
Date of death established for 3,810 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
Average of last four batches is currently 5.6 per day compared to 5.0 since Feb 24, 2022
I've improved my graph so that it…
Russian sources confirm that at least 3 975 Russian officers have been eliminated in Ukraine.
Confirmation of each name is available in our dataset (obituary, grave, memorial plaque, etc.) see
@KilledInUkraine
@PhillipsPOBrien
@GeneralStaffUA
Indeed! Record troop losses & triple-digit equipment losses.
Today's reported losses:
7x daily changes over 7-day average
5x 7-day average increases
See dashboard 📈 for further information on claimed and visually confirmed losses:
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 with 55 🇷🇺 officers
Since start of war, 5.0 have been killed per day (4.3 in the last four batches).
Date of death established for 1,946 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
📈
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
New update from my 🇨🇿 friend
@KilledInUkraine
with 30 🇷🇺 officers
On average, 5.0 have been killed per day (4.9 in the last four batches).
Date of death established for 1,840 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
📈
⚡️ RUSSIAN SHELLING ON NOV 28
56 locations reported today, below the 7-day average of 61 but slightly more than yesterday. There were no new locations.
Map below shows last 7 days, pie charts today.
Visit
@DefMon3
for further context.
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⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- JAN 2
Continued focus on taking out artillery systems & air defense working
TODAY'S REPORT:
720 troop losses ⬇
7-day troop average: 691 ⬆
20 equipment* losses ⬇
7-day equipment* average: 30 ⬇
* Land-based only
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS AS OF SEP 25
My 🇨🇿 colleague
@KilledInUkraine
has added 20 officers to his list. In the last 30 days, 6.1 officers have been killed per day, and senior officers are 22% thereof. See dashboard for further analysis.
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⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- MAY 18
Most artillery units lost in a single day this year so far
REPORTED:
510 troop losses ⬇
7-day troop average: 597 ⬇
Equipment losses: $60M ⬇
50 landbased losses ⬇
7-day average: 56 ➡
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⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- FEB 4
Troop losses reach 130 thousand, four air defence systems destroyed in the last 7 days
TODAY'S REPORT:
720 troop losses ⬇
7-day troop average: 726 ⬇
31 equipment* losses ⬆
7-day equipment* average: 26 ⬇
* Land-based
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS - MAR 22, 2024
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 latest batch of 49 brings total to 3,812
Date of death established for 3,697 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
30-day average of 7.7 compared to 5.0 per day since Feb 24, 2022
Graph shows development of 30-day average & established…
⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- DEC 17, 2023
■ Strikes on both sides far above 7-day average (most in 12 days)
■ Fewer combat engagements however as well as settlements under artillery fire
■ 6th highest casualties on record, triple-digit equipment losses
■ Oryx: 30 day ratio of losses…
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 has added +40 🇷🇺 officers
Since the start of the war, 5.0 have been killed per day
Average for last four batches: 5.0 (unchanged)
Date of death established for 2,778 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
📈
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE, SEP 15
In the last 7 days, 🇷🇺 has lost 11 planes, thereof 4 reported today. Today's report also includes 13 tanks, which are slightly above the 7-day average.
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⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- JAN 10
Huge troop losses, first boat/ship loss since figures were adjusted on Oct 12
TODAY'S REPORT:
710 troop losses ⬆
7-day troop average: 611 ⬇
23 equipment* losses ⬇
7-day equipment* average: 34 ⬇
* Land-based only
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⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- JAN 4
7-day average of troop losses has tripled since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on August 29, while the 7-day average of land-based equipment losses is currently 45% higher.
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⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS - FEB 24, 2024
@KilledInUkraine
🇨🇿 has added 46 🇷🇺 officers
On average, 5 officers have been killed per day since February 24, 2022
Average in last four weeks: 5.3 per day (+0.23)
Date of death established for more than 3,500 by
@splussi
🇨🇦
📈…
⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- MAR 9, 2024
■ Fewer combat engagements but strikes on both sides above 7-day average
■ Casualties below average but weekly figures 13% above previous 7 days
■ Landbased equipment losses well above average; weekly ones 30% above
■ Most vehicles destroyed…
Unable to advance on the battlefield, Russia takes out its frustration on civilians. This is not a sign of strength, but of weakness. The bombings are a barbaric act, ordered by a desperate despot. Russia has already lost the war, as more people realize each day.
#SlavaUkraini
⚡️ RUSSIAN OFFICER DEATHS REACH 1,500
@KilledInUkraine
has added 14 officers to his list which means that at least 1,500 have been killed so far. Based on this, in the last 30 days, 4.3 officers have been killed per day. See dashboard for development.
📈
⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE
- FEB 19, 2024
■ 🇷🇺 presses on while 🇺🇦 makes sure any 🇷🇺 gain is as costly as possible
■ Biggest casualties so far in 2024; 4th highest since start of war
■ Triple-digit equipment losses; >250 artillery units destroyed in the last 7 days
■ Fewer strikes…
⚡️ HOW IS THE WAR PROGRESSING?
Today, I'm launching three new graphs in partnership with
@PStyle0ne1
and
@splussi
, in order to help us to evaluate further the progress of the war.
HINT: It's not looking so good for 🇷🇺.
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