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@quantLR
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Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true. I buy fear. I don’t trade for direction, I trade for distribution. AI/ML/QC.
Joined August 2021
1/ Anduril's massive A$1.7B Ghost Shark deal with Australia has a "secret" winner: Canadian marine tech company Kraken Robotics $KRKNF I modeled how much Kraken tech is inside each Ghost Shark and what the total deal is worth to them. The numbers are staggering. 🧵
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Futures are open! $ES +0.46% $NQ +0.66% $RTY +0.44% Let's see how they hold up in pre-market tomorrow morning
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Correlation Matrix I made today for $NVDA: These names show strong correlation and are moving significantly after hours with $NVDA: $GEV $AMAT $QQQ $SPY $MU $QUAL
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Just wanting to say I was right $NVDA $NVDA is up 6% after hours & $CRWV is also up 10%. GG Thanks for playing
With earnings coming up here's a $NVDA Earnings Volatility Analysis Hypothesis: If NVDA sells off >2% in the 3 days pre-earnings, does it bounce on the report? Dataset: Last 12 Quarters (Feb '22 - Nov '24) The Setup: • Occurrences of >2% pre-earnings selloff: 5 • Win Rate
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THIS JUST IN! $NVDA Trump says on Truth Social: Jensen Huang: “As I promised, production of Blackwell has started. AI - invented in America, made in America, built for America and the world.”
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This Polymarket bond was brought to you by $PPW @pizzintwatch. Thanks to their 1-hour breaking news section.
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In honor of $NVDA earnings tomorrow! Here's my earnings volatility analysis—check it out!
With earnings coming up here's a $NVDA Earnings Volatility Analysis Hypothesis: If NVDA sells off >2% in the 3 days pre-earnings, does it bounce on the report? Dataset: Last 12 Quarters (Feb '22 - Nov '24) The Setup: • Occurrences of >2% pre-earnings selloff: 5 • Win Rate
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With earnings coming up here's a $NVDA Earnings Volatility Analysis Hypothesis: If NVDA sells off >2% in the 3 days pre-earnings, does it bounce on the report? Dataset: Last 12 Quarters (Feb '22 - Nov '24) The Setup: • Occurrences of >2% pre-earnings selloff: 5 • Win Rate
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Now up at a high of 5.62% $MOH 😂
@michaeljburry $MOH up 4% overnight due to the Burry shoutout 😂
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18/ Not financial advice, just sharing my analysis I'm buying March 31 YES with 10-12% of my portfolio allocation DM open if you want the full 25-page intelligence report with force composition breakdown, timeline modeling, and risk scenario trees Let's see if this prints🎯
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17/ BOTTOM LINE: The US has positioned overwhelming force, restarted jungle warfare training for first time in 24 years, and authorized CIA covert ops Trump has designated cartels as terrorists and said Maduro's "days are numbered" Market thinks 44% probability. Reality: 60%+
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16/ POLYMARKET EDGE SUMMARY: December 31 @ 32¢: OVERPRICED (38% true prob = -2% edge) March 31 @ 45¢: UNDERPRICED (60% true prob = +16% edge) ✅ Volume: $18.5M - liquid enough for 5-6 figure positions This is a structural mispricing, not noise
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15/ The market is mispricing this because: 1. Recency bias (boat strikes don't count, so traders discount) 2. Trump's mixed signals (denied on Oct 31, but also said "days numbered") 3. Not tracking the jungle training resumption 4. Missing the Billingslea insider signal These
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14/ RISK MANAGEMENT: This is a binary outcome - no stop loss, hold to expiration But size appropriately: - 10-12% of bankroll for March - Optional 3-5% on Dec 31 as lottery ticket Don't over-leverage on geopolitical predictions
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13/ COMPARISON TO HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS: - 2003 Iraq: 6-month buildup, "Most Wanted" cards - 1989 Panama: Similar force size, jungle training at... Fort Sherman - 2011 Libya: Limited strikes, no ground invasion Current op looks like Libya model applied to Venezuela
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12/ WHAT WOULD CONFIRM THIS: ✅ B-52s deploy to Puerto Rico (currently flying from CONUS) ✅ Billingslea follow-up tweet ✅ Trump Oval Office address ✅ Gold spikes >$2,800 ✅ Marine units in Panama go dark Watch these signals in next 2-4 weeks
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