also funny how many of these dots are super close to that -100% ytd return limit

Man it was a good day to be in absolute garbage

Some encouraging signs on the shutdown front. Election day could prove to be a turning point in congressional posturing

Crypto Selloff Worsens. Why @fundstrat @seanmFarrell Is Still Bullish

CoinShares miner ETF now up ~4x vs BTC over the past 6 months

The bearish view: OGs continue to hammer price The bullish view: for every seller, there is a buyer, and there has been ample demand to take these coins off OG hands >$100k

“BuT MuH fOuR yEaR CyCle.” Yes, cycles matter, but there’s nothing in Bitcoin’s code that dictates peaks must occur every four years. The marginal buyer of crypto is no longer CT, and the cycles that actually matter are the liquidity and business cycles. If this one happens to

In my view, the main risk to markets lies in the ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations. Steep tariffs could trigger a growth scare by raising costs and discouraging hiring and investment, which would weigh on risk assets. That said, both sides have strong political and economic

Finally, there are the liquid funds. It’s no secret that they have broadly underperformed this cycle, and that trend has continued this year. If the market rotates into the coins and achieves a breakout, we could see performance chasing into year-end, likely concentrated farther

Not to mention the powerful secular tailwind from stablecoins and tokenization, themes that TradFi is increasingly eager to gain exposure to. While we can debate endlessly about value accrual to ETH or SOL, the key point is that the narrative itself is driving renewed interest

Where does outperformance come from? BTC should do well, but the real opportunity likely lies in alts. ETH’s relative performance tends to track small-cap tech, and with real yields rolling over, rates getting cut, and small caps breaking out to new highs, the setup looks

Sentiment is always difficult to measure, but indicators such as the Fear & Greed Index and put/call skew suggest that many market participants remain skeptical about the prospect of a year-end rally

The crypto market likely remains shell-shocked from the 10/10 liquidations, the largest in crypto history. While a leverage reset doesn’t guarantee a rebound, history shows that, absent a full-fledged credit crunch, buying into leverage resets has tended to be profitable

Liquidity is paramount for crypto to succeed, and there was a significant liquidity draw from markets in Q3/early Q4 with the rebuild of the TGA. With the TGA refilled and QT ending, a key headwind for crypto will be removed

Easier monetary policy and global flow dynamics have led to the dollar weakening, which is also a tailwind for BTC. Our DXY signal also implies higher prices for BTC in Q4

Again, while not correlated, BTC is still compared to gold. When gold rises, BTC's ceiling is raised. A return to an ATH BTC/Gold Ratio would imply prices for BTC north of $160k

This “debasement trade” is one reason gold has performed so well, with the other being CB reserve diversification. While gold and BTC are not meaningfully correlated, they have exhibited a consistent lead-lag relationship since the start of this bull market, and that relationship

This policy mix: looser monetary conditions, persistent inflation, and resilient nominal growth creates an environment that supports liquidity-sensitive, dollar-debasement hedges like BTC

With productivity improvements slow to materialize and labor supply contracting, monetary easing becomes the primary offset, even at the cost of higher inflation

Tariffs are being used to raise taxes on consumption and improve trade balances, yet they rely on sustained growth to succeed, making them self-limiting in the short term