If you want information on the UK
#SARSCoV2
variant, do not turn to mainstream news, try GISAID their summary: "As seen on many occasions before, mutations are naturally expected for viruses and are most often simply neutral regional markers"
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@profvrr
The epidemiological data is highly convincing that this variant is more transmissible, even if it doesn't cause more severe disease.
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@profvrr
Is it wise to be advising people to turn away from mainstream news to get their information on COVID-19 right now?
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@profvrr
Hi Vincent, worth giving this report that came out shorty from a glance over re the new variant
- increased viral load
Thoughts?
NERVTAG meeting report on the new UK
#SARSCoV2
variant released
Available data points to:
- Increased growth rate 71% (67%-75%) relative to other lineages in circulation
- Increased viral load (~4x based on RT-PCR; ~5x based on genome reads)
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@profvrr
thanks to you and the TWiV team for keeping us all up to date on the latest science. It is great to have data during a time like this! Cheers
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@profvrr
Vincent, many people are asking the question: how much difference in structure would there need to be before we can correctly regard variants as a new strain? I know Influenza strains have substantial structural differences in the transmembrane proteins.
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@profvrr
I really don't think you can make this an issue about mainstream news when it's hard to find scientists in agreement with one another. NERVTAG and GISAID, both I'd consider dependable, differ on this.
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@profvrr
Drosten thinks it's something to worry about
Neue Daten zur B.1.1.7-Mutante (heute veröffentlicht). Das sieht leider nicht gut aus. Positiv ist, dass Fälle mit der Mutante bisher nur in Gebieten zunahmen, wo die Gesamtinzidenz hoch oder ansteigend war. Kontaktreduktion wirkt also auch gegen die Verbreitung der Mutante.
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@profvrr
22 mutations in a virus with a long branch in a highly sampled country is not a sign of a neutral regional marker
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@profvrr
paper with info on new variant
After a rather long screening delay at Biorxiv the revised pre-print on recurrent SARS-CoV-2 Spike deletion 69/70 is up. It features analysis of the UK B1.1.7 lineage in Figs 5-7 and supp fig 3
@robertson_lab
@EricTopol
@firefoxx66
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@profvrr
People are starting to lose their heads over this and coming up with mad theories
Still a hypothesis but new variant could spread more easily among children. Until now, younger children less infectious & not transmitting like adults. If hypothesis is true, big problems ahead & need for maximum suppression to get schools open safely.
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@profvrr
more info on nervtag meeting which isnt as scary 50 to 70%. also has transmissibility at low to medium confidence
"New evidence on VUI-202012/01 and review
of the public health risk assessment"
With detailed data from the Lighthouses on the number and proportion of S-negative cases. In a sense number is most important.
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@profvrr
Completely agree, mainstream news like politicians are almostly totally devoid of scientist and statisticians, which is why they swallow up information with no critical thinking ...
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