Yuriy Podmogaev
@podmogaev
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Quantitative researcher | Analyst | Agri & Logistics
Novorossiysk
Joined November 2017
The bars on the chart show the difference between the forecast at the start of the season and the final estimate. For example, in the 2017/18 season, exports exceeded initial expectations by more than 30%, while in 2021/22, they fell short of the forecast by ~15%.
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BY WHAT PERCENTAGE DID THE FINAL EXPORT OF RUSSIAN WHEAT DIFFER FROM THE INITIAL FORECAST? 🤔 #WASDE #Exports #SeasonResults #Wheat #Forecasts #grainmarketing
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This is the average deviation from the initial forecast. The most significant adjustments—around ~12-15%—occur in the first months of the season (May-April) when the picture for the harvest and logistics becomes clearer.
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RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORT FORECAST AVERAGE CHANGES BY 5-15% DURING THE SEASON. 📉 #WASDE #Statistics #Volatility #Wheat #Russia #DataAnalysis
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The chart shows how the forecast changed during each season. Russian wheat export forecasts can be adjusted by ±20-30% during the season relative to the initial estimate.
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This chart shows the average magnitude of adjustments (in %) for the largest exporting countries. The most significant forecast revisions are observed in Ukraine and Australia – up to 25-30% per season.
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HOW MUCH DO WHEAT EXPORT FORECASTS CHANGE ON AVERAGE DURING THE SEASON ACROSS DIFFERENT REGIONS? 📊
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