Patrick Condon
@pmcondon2
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UBC Prof. in urban design I treat all with respect - I ask the same. Blocks for those who dont. Free book on why non market housing is our only hope. Link below
Vancouver, British Columbia
Joined May 2018
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A cleaned up version of a recent presentation expaining why non market housing is our only hope. A link to the pdf is below.
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Vancouver. 1980 vs now. A very amazing urban development. Succesful in every way except one. Its no longer affordable. Adding density did not lead to affordability. The reverse happened. NA's most expensive housing.
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Vancouver tripled the number of housing units in this center city since 1970. No other center city in NA came close. If adding supply led to lowered prices, Vancouver should have NA lowest prices. It has the highest. Why?
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Fifteen percent of Vancouver housing is non market housing. Predominantly co-ops (shown in map) and predominantly built between 1974 and 1990. Neo liberal trends brought that to a halt in the 1990s. If we had continued to build non market at that rate the proportion would now be…
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Disapointingly, over the decades, the attempts made by me and many others to bring down housing cost by adding supply, failed.
If adding supply led to lower cost, Vancouver should have the cheapest housing in NA. Instead it has the most expensive.
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Puting this out there. Vienna has 50 percent non market housing. This puts downward preassure on the land market there making themarket sector housing half theprice of similar housing in Paris.
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Supply wont fix this. There is plenty of supply. For the investor class.
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Scientists and other UBC staff march on May Day. Even research scientists cant afford the rent. Yet the UBC 2050 vision calls for selling off the remaining land to the same real estate speculators responsible for out of control housing price.
House your staff UBC.
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Very well explained article telling us why upzoning does not make housing cheaper. Density is good for lots of reasons. Making housing cheaper is not one of them.
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Its not about supply. Something else is forcing prices higher.
More housing per capita in the US today than at any point in history.
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I offer here just one relevant (and disturbing) empirical example that would seem to disprove Glaeser’s theory.
The City of Vancouver, since the 1960’s, when this center city was already “built out,” (with no undesignated unoccupied lots) has more than tripled the number of…
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Mark me down as one of the "small group of academics" who doubt that building luxury rentals will "trickle down" (filtering) to create affordability for wage earners.
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"If we build more housing, the argument goes, people will have more choices, and rent will be lower. The main problem with this “supply-side” argument is that it is not true."
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BC Legislature blames planning for high housing costs. Bill 44, 46, 47 pass in a rush. Bills eliminate city planning (automatic approval of market housing towers within all circles shown - overuling city approved area plans) effectively ending local planning democracy.
Why? To…
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The inventor of the whole idea of supply and demand warned that, unless controlled, land Rent (or land monopoly if you prefer) would suck both workers and entrepreneurs dry. Thats what is happening again.
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I just cant say this enough. The problem is not that we have a shortage of housing. The problem is that when we add density land prices go up. No benefit to renters or first time buyers. Look at this out of control land price inflation in Vancouver. Go here for more.…
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This doesnt have to our new city. Brentwood in Burnaby BC.
Expensive to build and maintain.
GHG source.
Energy wasters.
Selling for $1,300 a sq. ft.
Be better Vancouver region.
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If you want to know why housing costs so much more than the average wage earner can afford - in many cities - read this.
HINT: Its not about "supply constraints." Its about the arrival of a global economy based on assets, not labor.
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Well......at least one municipal government in the Vancouver region gets it. Burnaby to build non market housing as only viable solution to housing affordability crisis.
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"We cant expect housing to 'filter' and appreciate at the same time"
Its land price that's making housing unaffordable - and allowing new density without insisting on affordability wont fix it.
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When people buy homes they are really buying land. The reason home prices are out of control is because land prices are way way out of control. This problem has a very long history with very litte being done about it.
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Vancouver. It could be worse.
China house prices are 24 times (or more) average wages. Vancouver 12 times more. Anything over 4 times is considered unaffordable. China a country that is building millions of homes. And yet the housing industry is now crashing (multiple…
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It takes time. But dont let anyone tell you that you cant shift to over 50 percent permanently affordable housing in modern capitalist liberal democracies. Vienna did.
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Nobody in a position to help really wants home prices to fall.
" People making loans on homes, building homes, developing property, or working within the real estate market have many of their mistakes forgiven by appreciating property values"
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Today this happened.
Urban design professor Patrick Condon plans run for mayor to fix Vancouver’s ‘completely broken’ housing market via
@torontostar
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Austin Texas, weirdly, is used by some as an example of how deregulating housing construction leads to affordability. Really?
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Here is the thing.
All the value emenating from productivity increases was not expended on goods and services (it didnt go to wage earners), but into asset wealth growth.
The biggest asset class, globally, is now (you guessed it) urban land.
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From an economic geographer at UCLA and the London School of Economics. Food for thought on upzoning.
"Affordability has to be tackled directly; it’s not going to be created through aggregate supply and trickle-down."
Adding density is good for many reasons. Sadly…
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"(RIchmond Mayor ) Brodie added that his community has been steadily increasing density along transit corridors for nearly two decades, but prices have soared anyhow."
He's right. The market cant fix this problem. The market IS the problem.
Non market…
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@Lanefab
In Vancouver we, as you know, have not had single family areas for decades. My point is ever and always that the market has failed due to out of control land price inflation and that non market housing must now be required rather than largely banished.
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Its so sad that Vancouver which once led the world (70s, 80s, 90s) in ensuring housing to all has fallen so so very far.
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This is not about housing "supply," Something else is at work. Build non-market housing at scale now!
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I dont know how many times I need to say this but the whole idea of community amenity contributions is to capture "land lift" increase in land value consequent to rezoning. If you eliminate CAC all you do is put more money into pockets of land speculators
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Adding new supply expecting housing price drop be like...
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Adam Smith on land "rent" (aka landlords)
"A tax upon ground-rents would not raise the rents of houses. It would fall altogether upon the owner of the ground-rent, who acts always as a monopolist, and exacts the greatest rent which can be got for the use of his ground."
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Its obvious. Non market housing is the way out of our housing crisis. Vancouver has 26,000 units. 15 percent of all housing. It would be 30 percent by now if we had not stopped building post 1980's neo-liberal enthusiasms. How did that work out?
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Finally something in the legislature that really WOULD make housing more affordable.
Today we introduced amendments to the Residential Tenancy Act to address the out of control rental market in BC.
Vacancy control is one action we can take immediately to address the housing crisis.
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There is something strange about this Vancouver election. Most of the candidates for mayor/council are saying yes there’s a housing crisis. So what we should do is do the same stuff that we’ve been doing so far. And if we just do more of it the results will be way, way better.
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Its too bad that the province assumes that the reason for high home prices is the recalcitrance of local democratic decision makers. Its more than a little surprising that they would come to this conclusion given our local experience. For example, the…
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Lots of benefits to this model of development for Jericho lands in Vancouver. 50% affordable is completely possible.
The video is here.
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@Simon_OByrne
My feeling, based on evidence from comparing "no build" cities like SF to "build like hell" cities like Vancouver, is that it makes little difference. As crazy as that seems, empirically that seems to be the case.
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Its pretty hard to claim that local democracy is stifling housing production, as the provincial NDP has done (in bills 44, 46, 47) when Vancouver council unanimously passes a project far from downtown which has a residential density higher than Hong Kong.
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Two more academics weigh in on the Vancouver region's housing price dumpster fire. Hint: "unleashing the market" is not a likely solution. Non market housing at scale is.
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Former Vancouver City Councillor Colleen Hardwick explains that it was neighbourhood activism that stopped the gutting of Chinatown and Downtown by an 8 lane freeway. History shows the validity of grass roots municipal democracy.
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At least one person in the BC legislature understands that the problem is not home price but land price. Adam Olsen, Green MLA Saanich.
"Each subdivision of that original single title fractures the land and unlocks more wealth for those who own it. It…
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Even with a tripling of units built in Vancouver between 1960 and now, the price per sq ft of market housing quadrupled in real terms. Salaries stayed stubornly flat in real terms. Adding density was good for many reasons. I am a fan. But low prices did not result.
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Cover for forthcoming book of mine from UBC Press. Earlier version of similar book for free here:
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Dayum.....how much evidence do we need that the housing problem is not about supply. Its about speculation on land value.
Canada’s housing market recently saw a big surge of investor demand. "But landlords usually try to buy property that rents for more than it costs to run. Recently a large share have become speculators that subsidize tenants.... We call them SPECULORDS."
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HOUSING: OZ is the same as Vancouver. Plenty of planning approvals for new housing. NIMBY is not the problem. Other things are the problem.
"As written here before, the policy failure decades in the making has been federal and state governments steadily…
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That's the sound of folks in the premier's office going "oh shit".
VANCOUVER SUN: "Now we know why Ravi Kahlon refused to release housing model"
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Rent controls work: They don’t reduce housing supply but they do limit profit via
@torontostar
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"Everyone claims to want affordable housing, but no one wants cheap housing."
Finally an economist who doesnt hide behind "demand curves" and tells it exactly like it is. Highly recomended.
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How can we produce housing that is affordable to wage earners with urban land prices inflating like mad ?? And adding density only enriches the land speculator, not the buyer or renter. LA land prices up 400 % in six years. Ugh!
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Speaker at Lincoln inst for panel on housing. First speaker reminded me that the USA has 15 million more housing units than households. “15 million empty units”. With an 8 million shortage of affordable units. The housing shortage is not in units. It’s in affordable units.
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Here's the thing. The model produces a result showing Van. new housing still unaffordable at over $1,500 per sq ft. Thats 1.5 million for a decent sized 2 br condo. In wood frame this means the cost of land is still much more than the cost of construction. Non market housing now!
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Article on the only sensible housing platform to emerge from the Canadian federal election.
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In Vancouver the previous council considered 242 zone change proposals for higher density projects throughout the city. They approved Every Single One. If NIMBYs were the real affordability boogeyman here they sure aren't very scary.
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"“With land value now constituting the large majority of assessed value — tax bills for Vancouver homes typically show land value around 10 times greater than building value, for example — upzoning can only increase value, not lower it.”
As well, the…
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Another huge win for land speculators!!
"Local governments will no longer be negotiating for amenities, capital investments, or rights-of-way through rezoning processes for SSMUH projects. Consequently, they should ensure revenues necessary for core infrastructure and services…
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Larry Beasley on what killed Vancouverism:
"The public got shut out. That's what killed it."
See the rest of a talk by one of the people who made Vancouver the world's best city......for a while anyway.
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Happy New Year and thanks to all who get it that my objective is great housing that doesnt make you poor to live in.
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Just gonna drop some actual data out there:
"The Auckland myth: There is no evidence that upzoning increased housing construction"
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Inquiring minds want to know:
By the phrase “hyper financialization of urban land,” we mean the decades-long shift from a housing market that once struck a rough balance between local housing costs and average metropolitan area wages, to one where this link is broken.
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Real estate, throughout the English-speaking world, is now largely priced, not for its value as housing, but for its value as an asset in a global marketplace hungry for assets of any kind. Of these assets urban land is attracting the lion’s share of global wealth.
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At least 50% permanently pegged to average family income.
"Given the dynamics of Vancouver, Condon joins the others in suggesting Metro Vancouver municipalities require a minimum of 50 per cent affordable units. They would be “leveraged” by the other half…
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Things we sort of know about real estate, but prefer to forget.
"Meanwhile, when real estate accounts for much of an economy’s wealth, it tends to steer both investment decisions and state policy toward unproductive outcomes. Firms that hold real estate…
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My latest mad ravings against the UBC subway. Help me!
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Abstract for conference. Stay tuned for more on this.
Title: Unveiling the True Culprit: The Soaring Cost of Urban Housing and the Imperative for Land Value Capture
In this presentation, we delve into a surprising revelation regarding the escalating cost of housing—it's not…
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Its not about supply. Non market housing at scale now!
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More market rental buildings wont put out this dumpster fire. More non market rentals will.
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Its heartbreaking when planners just dont get it. Its not about lack of supply. Its about land price inflation stimulated by policy change.
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Coming soon. But sadly not soon enough to help fix a broken Vancouver.
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Better Dwelling gets it right again. New amortization extension does not make housing more affordable but DOES drain more capital from the real economy.
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My opening statement in response to question: why do you want to run for mayor.
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A visual argument perhaps worth pondering. For the price of the one six billion dollar tunnel to UBC you could cover the whole city with neighbourhood serving modern tram, as shown. Thank you Kathryn Ariel Mandell
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Winston Churchill was British finance minister in the LIberal Government prior to WWI. He said THEN (in the context of the "Budget Debate") a few words that relate to our global housing crisis NOW.
THE PEOPLE'S LAND
Roads are made, streets are made, railway
services are…
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Housing prices are high because NIMBYs block development. NOT.
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Today on zoning. I was the only guy talking about land value capure for social benefit in return for new density allowance. OK boomer, eh?
First, Jessie Grogan (
@landpolicy
),
@pmcondon2
(
@UBC
),
@jenny_schuetz
(
@BrookingsInst
), and
@dagarciajr
(
@TernerHousing
) discussed statewide zoning reform, with Diana Lind moderating.
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Adding new housing supply will make prices drop. Right?
RIGHT??
Upzone only in return for at least 50% affordable housing pegged to median incomes.
Find out how this can work here:
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Beach reading.....comes out in May.
Broken City: Land Speculation, Inequality, and Urban Crisis (UBC Press $32.95),
"In Canada, many immigrants, racialized minorities, young people and service workers are prevented from joining the middle classes as they…
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Prior to WWII land Rent was the largest contributing factor in holding back the growth of a global middle class. In 1920s the cost of an apartment or home in New York city was 8 times average household income, more than twice what most housing experts consider optimal
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Just posted.
"Rather than spend “billions and billions” of dollars on new bridges, highways and transit systems to move these folks from where they can afford to live to where their low-paying jobs are, government needs a new approach, he says."
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This is whats happening. Building value, what, seven percent of land value? Whats the real problem here?
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TEAM Vancouver announces plans today for city wide vacancy control. My comments in support below.
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Its symbiotic.Vancouver now has 15 percent of its housing non maket. If Vancouver had not stopped building coops in the 1990s we would be at 30 percent by now.
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Its not about supply. It never is. Its about asset value of urban land.
Why aren't YIMBYs celebrating?
There is more housing than ever in the US, Australia, and many other places.
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Vancouver region officially jumps the shark.
Condon believes Concord Brentwood, plus Vancouver’s vast Oakridge Park luxury condo development, “are, sadly, very unaffordable. And they operate as isolated real estate investment islands, poorly integrated…
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BC Green Party MLA Adam Olsen,"bells the cat" on the housing affordability problem.
"Its not that the housing system creates wealth thats the problem. Its that we pretend that the housing system we have designed is going to produce affordability"
More:
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But why is urban land more expensive than in previous decades? Land usually accounted for less than 10 percent of the value of the home. Now land is normaly 70 percent.
In crazy Vancouver (and other out of control cities like LA) its often over 90 percent of total home value.
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I have noted many people here (on twitter) challenge my credibility as an "economist", a credibility that i have never claimed. I thought I would post this note excerpted from my new book to clarify the record, should anyone care.
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Well put. From Green Party and First Nations MLA Adam Olsen.
"The new legislative changes in B.C. unilaterally turned single property owners into multiple property owners. The modelling and analysis reports 'we expect any windfall gains from rezoning to…
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For those who like a deeper analysis of what ails the housing market than the usual neo-liberal back scratching. This:
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