Nick zheng
@pick1998_2
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Biotech stock trading and investing for 35 years. PhD in biology, MS in computer science.
Las Vegas
Joined November 2011
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$TGTX Approval! I do not see black box in label! congrats to longs! My last big win this year. Happy new year to all. 2023 will better.
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$XBI Selloff parallels Nasdaq tech crash in 2000.
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$XBI huge damage done by this administration who want to be called 'hero" but do not know how to be a better "hero". German gov has clearly showed superior intelligence than American counterpart.
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$AFMD added some. I expect $AFMD will prove its NK-mAb (bi-specific) platform is superior to all available cancer treatments: out-of-shelf, safer, and unparalleled efficacy.
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$XBI 67. Worst ever bear market. Historically, risk/reward in biotech sector is terrible. Just remember: boom and bust is the character of biotech stocks. When next boom comes, exits all before the bust hits our portfolios too hard. I am stuck for now, and I am gonna ride it out
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$XBI near 90. The sentiment of biotech sector in 2023 has turned. Often, we see post JPM conference selling-off, but not this year. Stay bullish. We may see many more M&A this year.
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$XBI down nearly 4% to 68. Should we forget small-mid biotech investments? My wife is asking me to cut loss and move IRA money in large diversified ETF and I can go fishing/golfing every day .... looks like a good exit ...
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$XBI the severity of this bear market is startling. 1) some stocks are selling 30 cents for net $1 cash. I have not seen such depressed valuation for junk biotech stocks; 2) volumes are very low; 3) no M&A at depressed price; 4) even no reverse merger.
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$XBI 86, biotech sector is broadly bullish this year. Good sign to recover.
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$XBI under 100. I believe most of water has been wrung out. Market is sluggish, but risk is much lower. Time to get in and play.
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$XBI I am glad to see it is green at end of the last day of 2022. We should see a much better year in biotech sector in 2023. Happy new year to all.
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$XBI terrible day, down 5.5%. to survive this bear market: 1) always keep some cash; 2) buy stocks only at extremely low valuation such as half of cash value; 3) only hold long biotech stocks with drugs approved by FDA. And do not take any risks on FDA approvals or clinical data
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$AFMD No surprise in 2Q21 report. AFM24, a bispecific mAb to EGFR/CD16A holds huge promise to solid tumors, esp. in combo with NK cells. Should it work out, this stock could be instant 10B hot biotech. We should see some preliminary data in 2022.
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$AUTL reported 100% CR without grade 3 CRS (n=9). It deserves a 30% gain today. But commercially autologous CART will be hard to deploy, and too expensive. Until toxicity of out-of-shelf CART is solved, the future is Natural Killer, out-of-shelf, safe and effective. Buy $AFMD.
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$STML $VSTM they are valued similarly and both have FDA approved oncology assets. $STML is acquired at 150% premium. How about $VSTM after a 60% cut?
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$AFMD doubled down. Now my largest holding. NK+mAb is the way to cure the cancers.
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$ARDX over 2.2. FDA is working with the company to approve the phosphorus binder.
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$VSTM drops under 2. Added a lot at 1.8-1.9. Which one let drop so much, PI data or potential selling by shareholders? over 150M cash at hands, and interesting pipeline. Data looks good by targeting a specific KRAS mutant. That is the direction of future molecular oncology.
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$AFMD If more complete responses occur in very sick pts who have exhausted all other options, we may see a crazy surge. Hold and add, do not sell.
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$AFMD 100% ORR, and safe. I do not know what investors or pts could ask more. I just sit tight and hold my shares.
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$GRTX my heavy bet for 2023. I have already held over one year. Longs will be rewarded well in Aug. Only a few months. The stock could be a big winner. No competitors in SOM. PR, BTD, stat sig pIII trials. But I hate their recent financing right after FDA acceptance of NDA for PR
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gene therapy is the real future that will solve almost ALL genetic diseases, tough CNS diseases, and most of cancers! Those who ignore this megatrend for next 10-20 years are like those who ignored Internet in 90s. Money should be there: $AXON, $SRPT, $SLDB, $ABEO, $FCSC, $BLUE,
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$ARDX officially granted appeal after surprisingly positive FDA panel meeting. Now the discussion of label of the phosphorus binder. Sounds like no real competition.
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$AFMD added. Lots of buyers are accumulating it. Could it be the last chance to buy at single digit ?
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$AFMD added a bit at 11. Should we see it at 20 or higher before being swallowed by a big fish? very likely.
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$MDGL the Piper Sandler analyst said she was almost to cry when she saw the PR this early morning? Really?
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$ARDX good news: FDA requested a meeting with the company to review the application. News in a few weeks. After surprising panel meeting, the only way for FDA to exit its wrong decision is to approve the phosphorus binder with cautious label.
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$XBI drops under 70. Worst time in my memory. The speed and duration of downward trend is unprecedented. We are back to the pandemic low of 60s. The damage to the biotech industry will be years, not a short period of time.
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$AFMD catalyst in mid Dec: registration-directed phase II data of AFM13 for CD20-positive r/r PTCL(peripheral T-cell lymphoma). I expect positive outcome. Then this data will serve an inflection foundation: its bi-specific mAbs to recruit NK cells to destroy cancer cells are real
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$GRTX now June, only two months to PDUFA (8/9/2023). I added significant number of call options yesterday. Now still 3, lower than when positive data was announced a year ago. I bet FDA approval of this drug for unmet medical need (severe oral mucositis). BTD, PR(priority review)
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$AXSM still 20% of float is short. After this Alzheimer agitation data, those shorts could be wiped out. This stock is one of the best in 2022, and it is of still low valuation before it hits 5B.
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$TGTX may be worth 100 if all potential BTK competitors are out one by one.
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$BLCM loaded it up. Only worth 230M? looks it should be 2B :-)
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$TERN 6mg TERN-501 cut liver fat by 45%, and it is safe. Best class of drug: low dose, high efficacy, and good safety.
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$FCSC the significance of FDA awarding is not how much money. It shows FDA believes $FCSC has a better gene therapy than competitors. We will see data in 1Q19, a good period for the price to run up.
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$FCSC is worth at least 100M. VERY under-valued gene therapy, considering their interim pI/II data (at least as good as $ABEO on DEB), expertise in fibroblast cells, and lenti vector constructor with on/off switch. I hold both stocks. It looks to me $FCSC could triple anytime.
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$AFMD excellent data proving 1) 100% ORR even when n=4 to 13; 2) multiple cycle increases CR and longer duration of response. I am not going to sell at single digit.
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$XBI 67. last four weeks I have counted number of biotech stocks touching new lows (each week) are going down: 165, 122, 57, and 45. Sign of stabilization? (The number of now highs remain in the single digits: 4, 3, 6, 1)
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$ETNB another shooting-up star for 2023: NASH data next quarter. We know the drug works in reducing liver fat and liver fibrosis in previous trials. Also a similar drug to $AKRO. So relatively low risk, but very low valuation. So buy and hold. Insiders are buying. Be greedy.
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$BLUE only 1.3. You can not hold a losing position for too long in a biotech portfolio. Three years ago, I sold $AFMD by taking 30-50% loss at 5-7 a piece. Now only 0.4. At end, a good stock needs not only technology, products, but profit.
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$ELEV another day surging 30%. Sold all of shares, taking over 100-300% profit. A true windfall in new year 2024. Never thought good luck could come so quick (It was such a pain to keep adding at 0.3-0.5 just weeks ago). Way too volatile.
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$ONCT we should see it at double digits soon. CAR-T program to initiate 1Q21 in China by the largest Chinese pharm (Shanghai Pharm). I am going to sit tight and watch it grows.
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$FSTX good pay day for me. frustrating holding period, but gave me a few times to add between 3-5. Pretty sweet at end. Often, we just need common sense to make our decision, and stick to it.
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$XBI 80, back to 8 years ago. After over 2 years of bear market washing out, about 20% of biotech symbols have disappeared in my database (including delisted, r-merger and acquisition). I'd say quite significant.
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$AFMD After months of watching and waiting, I added some at 7 today. Huge potential for cry-preserved cbNK + bi-specific mAb platform. Expect to see it double digits again. I have not sold a share so far. Still underwater.
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$XBI 66. Terrible year. I sold all those biotech stocks without drugs that are approved by FDA or that have shown positive phase III data. My top holding is $CTIC. A little over 50% in cash. For 2022, I am not looking for a positive return, just to survive this brutal selling-off
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$XBI back to 64. Bottomless. Most biotech stocks are actually much lower than two days ago.
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$AFMD could be a target for big pharm after $TRIL. But just a hunch, it is hard to predict a buyout.
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$AFMD I bet this stock will be acquired. Great story to cure cancers: bi-specific mAb + NK + cytokines.
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$STML will be at least 30, $NBRV will be over 50, $MRNS may catch half of market cap of $SAGE sometime next year... so why trade for pennies? My experiences told me to relax and stay away from screens in order to have a huge gain.
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$AFMD has been wobbling around 6 for months. I am still a strong believer in its platform: NK cells + bi-specific mAb for cancers. Nearly 100% response rate but few side effects.
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$XBI closed under 112. It's a long year :-) Look forward to 2022. happy new year!
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$CTMX its CX-904, T-cell engager, only works for pancreatic cancer? It appears not effective for CRC, gastric, esophageal, NSCLC, HNSCC, why? forget this one. Be long $JANX and $LVTX
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$AFMD will have lots of data to show. If cryo-preserved allogenic NK cells could be delivered, this stock will fly. So hold it tight.
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$STML up up and we go. This stock will quadruple instantly for its target/antibody and its efficacy when stage 3 data out. Really undervalued in oncology. $STML could apply its target/antibody to CAR-T and evolve. Let's see.
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Three emerging cancer stocks to have before fanfares by some analysts: $ONCT(one of few targeting ROR1), $GMDA (natural killer cells), $STRO (ADC). They are so under appreciated for their surprising data. Sorts of breakthrough.
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$FCSC how much is it worth if one of their programs works out? 10, 20, 30 or 50? i have no idea, but the chance to have one of their programs to work is really high. Let's wait until spring, 2019.
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$XBI only 112. Maybe the worst week 52 in decades. The performance discrepancy to SP500 is startling.
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$ARDX over 3, and $TGTX over 12. Both have transformational events: FDA approvals ($ARDX yet to receive official approval of its drug after received approval of appeal). Keep them strong and tight.
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$AFMD if it breaks 10, I will double down my long position. This stock could be bought out with over 50% probability by end of this year. A truly rare asset in oncology.
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$SEEL may touch double digits tomorrow for its high profile pipeline in PTSD, MDD, parkinson, sanfilippo... all in phase II clinical trials. Never under-estimate the power of mighty market. It may just follow $BPTH. Fundamentally, $SEEL should be worth more than $BPTH. :-)
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Taking my son for a vacation in Costa Rica tomorrow. When coming back on June 26, I hope to see $IBB stands above 300, and $ITEK around 3. 🤣
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$MCRB added. Have not seen such a dramatic drawdown after FDA approval of a revolutionary drug. Nearly 20K a course, should be very profitable.
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$PAVM from 9.7 to 1.8, down over 80%. This stock has exemplified the fact: $XBI was in bubble, and some MEME-like biotech stocks with lots of followers was traded on so much hype.
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$TGTX new patent extends protection of BRIUMVI® (ublituximab-xiiy) to 2042. VERY positive news.
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$TGTX loaded enough stock under 9. FDA approval, clean label, only up 8% at closing. Again post-approval sell-off to me.
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$TGTX added some, a unique MS treatment should find a niche. I feel good right now that I bought enough $APLS at 20 to average down to 30. Both stocks could be targets for acquisition. Better put money on biotech stocks with FDA approved drugs for large markets than early stage.
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$ACHL probably at least worth 10 bucks a share if its update of higher dose for solid tumor show good ORR. We will see soon. $IOVA is valued at 4B for its first TIL therapy approval; $ACHL is only 1% of $IOVA, and you can even load it up at low 1 for 3 dollar cash.
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$XBI a sharp "V" recovery today when NASDAQ/SP500 are red. And today is friday. Good sign?
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$JANX multiple offers already. Wait for the buyout news. expecting at least 100% premium.
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$ABEO $FCSC $KRYS : it is interesting to compare them for EB. $ABEO uses AAV and most advanced in clinical trial, which needs skin transplantation. $FCSC uses lenti-vector, which will incorporate automatically into genome. $KRYS uses non-replicating HSV, but will it cure EB?
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$IBB trump win. good for biotech. At least we have a president with balls ;-) knowing how to do business, not career corrupt politician.
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$MDGL if history is the guide, this stock should be worth 10B now.
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$XBI still can not figure out why the biotech that beats covid-19 is cut by a third this year, and fossil-energy burning useless crypto coins (ten of thousands, and anyone can copy and paste codes and rename a new coin) has tripled. The whole world is upside-down to me (-::
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$XBI bad year after stellar 2020. biotech is built on innovations. But when we take a look at hundreds of IPOs last few years, most are me-too, or very early (preclinical). Too many IPOs with me-too tech. I stick to innovative stocks with proved data like $LIFE $PRQR $AFMD $ALLO
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$ARDX will this biotech be sold after such an ordeal with FDA? They have no commercialization infrastructure, and need to raise cash. added from 2.2 to 2.5. The dump on good news seems to be good opportunity to load up for 2023. Very unique product, complementary, no competition.
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kick ass views at Kapalua golf club, maui. Forget the f--- biotech trading for the rest of year.
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$TGTX is making new local high post FDA approval. Being long a commercial stage biotech stock is much safer and often very profitable when it is acquired or when it reports better than expected sales.
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$AFMD is a disappointment so far, but I am holding it tight. May add after new data or more cases of CR (complete responses) after its NK+bispecific mAb therapy. I still believe this company has the best option for difficult to treat cancers: very effective and little toxicity.
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$VSTM pII trial: Duvelisib to Combat COVID-19. Oral or liquid formulation. Data in just one month. Now we know why so many open interest of 3 call in June.
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$AFMD bought more at 9.5, putting my cash to work. $AFMD is ripe to be grabbed by big pharms.
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$FCSC added some. Data is coming 1Q19, expecting superior skin healing for tough and terrible EBS using lentivirus as a gene vector and injection as a curing path. No repetitive infection like $KRYS, no skin transplantation like $ABEO. $FCSC should provide superior solution.
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$CCXI load it up! PDUFA 7/7/21. Slightly positive panel vote. FDA may be forced to approve it. Vasculitis is unmet serious disease. Approval of aducanumab by FDA is a very good turning point in FDA history: those with unmet needs will be approved much easily.
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$CALT win FDA approval after 3-m delay. up 75%, another windfall! Next: $CTIC, 3-m delay, PDUFA Feb 28, 2022.
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$ARDX 3.15, up 15%. Another case shows that panic selling is the best opportunity to load up. Do not set stop loss orders for biotech stocks. Your shares could be easily stolen on a minor event (non-transformational event).
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$GRTX back to 2.7. I added some. It will be worth much more after FDA approval in early Aug. Breakthrough therapy designation, priority review, unmet medical need for severe oral mucositis (SOM).
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$MDGL another 15%, going to touch 300. Hold it for 500, still sounds ridiculous?
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$AFMD added. This stock has tremendous potential, and only one in my portfolio that is green.
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$XBI 106, only 6 points to 100. This sector swings from excess exuberance to ultimate dismalness as quickly as turning on/off a light bulb.
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$ONCT we often underestimate potential of a micro-bio stock. It could be a 100M- or 1B- or even 10B-dollar company depending on a single drug/therapy. Why $ONCT could not be worth 300M right now? or 500M for its invaluable mAb targeting ROR1. Great data so far for blood cancers.
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$XBI 96. Market is changing its direction. Now it is time to be optimistic and stay long.
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$MCRB trading post FDA approval is so illogical. First 4 days of selling, then followed by 4 days of buying. Now we are almost back to 6 again. It is a game played well by big funds. But I do not understand why longs sell their shares after risky FDA approval when stock drops.
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$XBI only 83, all gain this year has evaporated. Very depressing.
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$XBI depressing. Every week/month there are many bio stocks touch new lows, only a few touch new highs. Low quality IPOs have flooded the market in last two years. Many have already lost 50-70% of value. Undisciplined FDA does not help, either. Will new FDA head help? I think so.
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$TGTX PDUFA dec 28th. I bet approval. I am long (long stock and calls, and short puts). It could be my last chance to make or lose a good amount of money by end of 2022. This time, I am prepared to buy more if selling-off post approval happens again. Remember $PRVB.
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