ConsumerTechBets
@optionsly
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High Growth US Consumer Tech. Previously at 3 midcap public tech cos. Voting and weighing stocks. raw thoughts. dms open.
San Francisco, CA
Joined October 2020
IMO fine if it takes a little longer than 5 years as long as the confidence intervals increase.
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IMO the most rigorous AI calibration is prediction markets like Metaculus. AGI probabilities: .P25 = Jan 2028 (2.5 years).P50 = Nov 2032 (7 years).
Entire market is dependent on whether AGI happens in next 5 years. That's what makes it so hard. Bears will say "no chance of AGI".Bulls will say "AGI is guaranteed". Nobody knows. Definitely not an investor that's so far away from research (like me).
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Entire market is dependent on whether AGI happens in next 5 years. That's what makes it so hard. Bears will say "no chance of AGI".Bulls will say "AGI is guaranteed". Nobody knows. Definitely not an investor that's so far away from research (like me).
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yes but what happened in the decade before dot com top.
We are at real risk of another lost decade, similar to the post-dot-com era.
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guess for $goog is we hit $200 shy next week, and we sell off into the anttrust decision late august. decision comes out and big vol (not sure direction). if red candle and outcome 1): buy dip this goes $250.if green candle and outcome 2): sell.outcome 3) sell.
$goog & anti-trust - biggest overhang to the stock. Core issue: DOJ ruled Google a search monopolist, mainly due to $20B/year default-search payments (e.g. to Apple). Largest tech antitrust case since Microsoft. Why it matters: Default status helped Google defend against.
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I dropped 6bps into OTM $NDAQ calls leaps last year. Normally I'd paper hand but it was so small I forgot. 14 bagger so now I have ~4% delta position in NDAQ.
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gmail started making AI summaries for email threads. really useful !
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$nvda bulls better pray all the hyperscaler stocks outperform nvda for next few years iykyk.
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let them sell off intc into 16-17s and you buy because there's zero chance nvda lets intc foundry fail.
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Not sure what stops $tsm just from raising prices 20%/year for next decade if intc foundry fails. foundries have major pricing power and barely flexed yet.
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Google showed that:.1. AI Capex increasing.2. AI cloud and apps accelerating.3. Ads doing great. You understand what that means right?.
everyone waiting on goog to confirm that ai is fine and also that economy is fine.
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$goog thoughts:.Big beat on cloud and beat on ads. IMO basically pristine. Reaction less than anticipated (but up 15% on the month so. ). Capex increase taming sentiment BUT AI winning turns capex into a boon. big narrative shift incoming: this closes higher by EOW.
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everyone waiting on goog to confirm that ai is fine and also that economy is fine.
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Mercor will literally pay up to $300/hr for you to tutor models
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Big mindshift for me on "data labelling.". I used to think: sweatshop work, low-value, captcha-esque. Now I think: Private tutors for a system that can learn anything. AI data labellers are becoming domain experts: super smart, educated, talented people training models in every
Surge CEO - we have more PhDs working for us than Google, Meta, MSFT combined.
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Surge CEO - we have more PhDs working for us than Google, Meta, MSFT combined.
Surge (scale AI competitor) hit $1b ARR with zero VC funding?. CEO thinks data quality is more important than compute (v. biased ofcourse). Thinks AGI may take many years if data is the bottleneck (E.g. time needed for experiments).
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