ConsumerTechBets
@optionsly
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High Growth US Consumer Tech. Previously at 3 midcap public tech cos. Voting and weighing stocks. raw thoughts. dms open.
San Francisco, CA
Joined October 2020
It was literally in the exchange and the CEO was ringing the bell and I was just in the back refreshing my brokerage app.
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As an intern, start-up I was at IPO'd on ASX.I was offered & bought an ipo allocation (no lockup).On IPO day it indicated to open 5x+.I pressed sell in minute 1 on my phone.Everyone else was drinking champagne and celebrating.That was the pico top and now down 90%.Used the money.
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Pain trade is we invent AGI.assets go up 10x: housing, stocks, gold, btc.you lose your job & income.your intellect is worthless.UBI servitude. (assuming we don't all die - ok that's actually worst case scenario).
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June NYC rideshare data out. $uber -7% y/y.$lyft +15% y/y
new nyc rideshare data came in and holy sht. $lyft . huge reversal in fortunes . big inflection. started position here
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"rising tide carries all boats" happening for AI and speculative stocks. lots of trash will fall hard if AI fails but . I don't think AI leaders fall much if speculative frenzy softens. There's a good pair trade in here where you can just long AI and short trash. (smartly).
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skeptical at current valuations/hype*** to be more specific.
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Although I'm broadly bullish there's a vast number of areas i'm deeply skeptical. I think AI/AGI has profound potential. but i'm also skeptical on:.1. robotaxis.2. humanoids / robotics.3. qc.4. evtol.5. nuclear.6. cry pto. and neutral on:.nvda, space.
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also why the entire "the current P/E is 15% above historic averages" or whatever is irrelevant. dude big tech is convinced we're gonna summon god in next decade.
I'm convinced the entire market is dependent on AI. If AI development stalls: all semi/energy stocks fall. we'll see a compression in all "optimistic stocks" including robots, space, hardtech etc. that downward momentum will pull down crypto, indexes, memes. everything.
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Word on the street is GPT 5 in next 1-2 weeks. if good we go higher.
If we get AGI in 5-ish years; extreme things will happen in the markets. not sure market internalized probability is almost 50%?.
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it will contract the private markets, contract vc funding, which in turn contracts new SaaS contracts, leads to cost cutting. which is a doom loop itself. and we'll be back in a 2022 cycle basically.
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I'm convinced the entire market is dependent on AI. If AI development stalls: all semi/energy stocks fall. we'll see a compression in all "optimistic stocks" including robots, space, hardtech etc. that downward momentum will pull down crypto, indexes, memes. everything.
If we get AGI in 5-ish years; extreme things will happen in the markets. not sure market internalized probability is almost 50%?.
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If we get AGI in 5-ish years; extreme things will happen in the markets. not sure market internalized probability is almost 50%?.
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Every real world indicator will consistently look terrible.Boomers will think we're in a perpetual recession.Yet tech profits will keep going up.It's going to confuse so many.
Every day I see studies on how Gen Z is drinking less, smoking less, having less sex etc. This is because they're doing everything less. Their entire existence is on their phones. Escapism to the nth degree. This is beyond bad.
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IMO fine if it takes a little longer than 5 years as long as the confidence intervals increase.
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IMO the most rigorous AI calibration is prediction markets like Metaculus. AGI probabilities: .P25 = Jan 2028 (2.5 years).P50 = Nov 2032 (7 years).
Entire market is dependent on whether AGI happens in next 5 years. That's what makes it so hard. Bears will say "no chance of AGI".Bulls will say "AGI is guaranteed". Nobody knows. Definitely not an investor that's so far away from research (like me).
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Entire market is dependent on whether AGI happens in next 5 years. That's what makes it so hard. Bears will say "no chance of AGI".Bulls will say "AGI is guaranteed". Nobody knows. Definitely not an investor that's so far away from research (like me).
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yes but what happened in the decade before dot com top.
We are at real risk of another lost decade, similar to the post-dot-com era.
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guess for $goog is we hit $200 shy next week, and we sell off into the anttrust decision late august. decision comes out and big vol (not sure direction). if red candle and outcome 1): buy dip this goes $250.if green candle and outcome 2): sell.outcome 3) sell.
$goog & anti-trust - biggest overhang to the stock. Core issue: DOJ ruled Google a search monopolist, mainly due to $20B/year default-search payments (e.g. to Apple). Largest tech antitrust case since Microsoft. Why it matters: Default status helped Google defend against.
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