noah hills
@noahmoreparties
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below is the last article that'll be published at for the foreseeable future, as i'll be starting law school at washington university in st. louis this fall. thanks a bunch 🫡
post-draft thoughts / early takes on the 2025 class:
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christian watson with the wr version of linsanity. it’s christianity
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488
10K
when the eagles go from miles sanders ➡️ d'andre swift ➡️ saquon barkley
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1K
9K
when you take mark andrews at the 2.04 and kyle pitts is still on the board at your 3.09
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1K
watching some old alvin kamara to get perspective on the jahmyr gibbs parallels i see being drawn and idk man. this guy is not normal
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four years of javonte williams:
2021: less efficient half of a 1-2 punch with melvin gordon
2020: less efficient half of a 1-2 punch with michael carter
2019: less efficient half of a 1-2 punch with michael carter
2018: inefficient fourth option
top-5 dynasty rb 🚀
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are we just not going to speak on the fact that breece hall is wearing
#35
. how can this man be rb1 looking like the upback on the punt team
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i’m old enough to remember when jk dobbins invoked jesus while telling people to go fuck themselves if they thought he might miss week 1
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"wow this 2023 rb class is actually kinda mid"
just say you haven't paid any attention to these guys since you heard they were all goated three years ago and you've now decided that zach evans doesn't have a high enough dominator rating for you
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de’von achane is the only rb in the league who might be better than jaleel mclaughlin
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isaiah spiller must be really good
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some big news today.
bringing you the best running back evals on the planet in the form of data- and film-based analysis and rankings for all your dynasty league, rookie draft, and devy sicko purposes:
is now live.
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love the spiller landing spot. he’s gonna fit perfectly in the joshua kelley role
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it's always gratifying to be able to connect with smaller creators and amplify their voices, was more than happy to hop on and bring some ears to the podcast jj is trying to get off the ground 🙏
Got a chance to chat with
@noahmoreparties
about this year's running back class on the newest Late-Round Podcast episode. Check it:
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melvin gordon was better than javonte williams last year js
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since 2007, every rb drafted within three picks of where ____ went:
breece hall at 35:
nick chubb
d’andre swift
javonte williams
tj yeldon
gio bernard
ronald jones
ryan williams
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derrius guice is less than a year older than at least one rb in this class. he was a better prospect than all but one of them, and he’s already proven to be good in the nfl. he’s not currently on a team, neither are they. he should be drafted ahead of a lot of them in startups rn
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austin ekeler: i'm begging someone, anyone, to be good enough that i don't have to touch the ball 275 times again next season
reporters, a number of times: what about isaiah spiller?
austin ekeler: uhhh he talks a lot in meetings
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mo ibrahim was listed at 5’10 and 210 lbs at minnesota. he measured in at the shrine bowl at 5’7 1/2 and 203 lbs.
if you liked devin singletary but wished he had twice as much experience and half as many receptions when he got to the league as he did, you’re gonna love ibrahim
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half this industry had breece hall ranked behind isaiah spiller a year ago
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also, in earnest:
here are my final top-25 pre-draft rookie rb rankings, neatly packaged into tiers and with embedded links to every article i’ve written for each player this offseason:
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derrick henry is closer to being the 15th best rb in the league than he is to being 1st
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📠 rashaad penny is healthy + coming off a dominant stretch of play
📠 last time seattle spent big capital on a rb, he sat behind a 7th rd pick
📠 msu jUst DiDn’T tHrOw To ThEiR rBs
📠 seattle had 4th lowest rb target share (14%) in the nfl in 2021
kenneth walker szn amirite
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if you can’t handle zach evans at his “the rams signed boston scott”, you don’t deserve him at his “leads the ufl in rushing”
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i’m very excited about dalvin cook’s upside as a receiver in the new kevin o’connell offense after rams rbs in this same system were thrown the ball *checks notes* at the lowest rate in the entire league last season
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jonathan taylor is the rb1 but dynasty rb2 is the 2023 1.01
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you can always trust what jk dobbins says when it comes to issues of health and availability
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was gonna make a “javonte williams is overrated in dynasty” video and i think i accidentally convinced myself that he is closer to properly rated
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saquon stepped out of the first annual meeting of the he man woman hater’s club and immediately kissed a girl
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dynasty guy:
“kenneth walker will obviously be the clear starter in seattle, rachaad penny is pretty much guaranteed to get hurt”
also dynasty guy:
*takes christian mccaffrey at the 1.07*
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@Cooper_DFF
i’ve seen win now teams in startups but this is the first win yesterday team i’ve come across
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at rb2, cmc is being priced as if he’s going to stay healthy. last time he was healthy, he averaged 29.5 + 24.1 ppg.
JT put up 22 ppg last year and is being drafted as the rb1.
if we’re assuming cmc is healthy (which we clearly are), how do we justify not having him at rb1?
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watching the kayshon boutte tape and my man pulls out the no-look ncaa 14 glitch pass
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gotta take breece hall 1.01. jets lowkey sexy landing spot
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idk who needs to hear this but stop waiting for the other shoe to drop with de’von achane. he’s the tyreek hill of running backs, not the gabe davis
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more sean tucker hype
(follow me on tiktok im begging u)
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damn right i’m victory lapping this one. we had today’s de’von achane news back in march
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earnest tweet / special announcement
(amplification v much appreciated)
sign up:
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little known fact:
of all the college running backs who weren’t high-volume receivers, kenneth walker is the only one who was simply on a team that didn’t utilize running backs in the passing game. he alone got screwed by coaching while secretly being a great receiver
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my unofficial bijan robinson comp is d’andre swift with a power-up mushroom
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since the turn of the century, here is the complete list of sub-215 lb rbs who have posted an rb1-level season (15+ ppr ppg) while averaging no more than 2 receptions per game (min. 8 games played):
deangelo williams 2008
willie parker 2006
elijah mitchell 2021
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travis etienne in 2022:
13th in the nfl in carries
9th in yards per carry
9th in goal-to-go rushing attempts
12th in total routes run
--> rb23 in ppr points per game
travis etienne now (after team drafted a 3rd round rb):
--> dynasty rb7 at ktc
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i just watched
@RayGQue
and
@ChaBoyJRich
take 8 rbs ahead of zach evans in a rookie mock. disrespectful
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good news for the achane doubters is they didn’t miss on his eval, he’s simply ✨an outlier✨
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breece hall isn’t even on an nfl team and there are still people out there who will say he’s a can’t miss prospect and the rookie 1.01
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the analytics dorks when wan’dale robinson inevitably fails to be a useful fantasy asset despite checking the breakout age and yards per team attempt boxes
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confirmation bias: mcvay and the rams letting the draft come to them with a tier-based approach, with the specific exception of zach evans and his "special traits"
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i’m ashamed by how little i have stanned kenneth gainwell this offseason. for the record, he will outscore miles sanders this season
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my favorite anti-etienne argument is that he’s going to be competing with james robinson who will definitely be back healthy by week one because did you see how fast cam akers was able to come back and average two yards per carry
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i am taking pierre strong over kevin harris in rookie drafts because draft capital. that’s how i knew trey sermon would be better than elijah mitchell, how jamaal williams would be better than aaron jones, and how tevin coleman would be better than devonta freeman
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my comp for darnell washington is clifford the big red dog
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imagine how much credibility i’ll lose when isaiah spiller finishes as an rb1 in 2022
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i keep thinking about breece hall suddenly being a legitimate downfield receiving weapon after being treated like a swing pass specialist in college and it’s difficult to overstate how good he can be in fantasy given that development
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thinking about deuce mcallister today. best rb in ole miss history, 4-time 1000-yd rusher in the nfl, 220-lb hammer w/ 4.4 speed and a 69 reception season on his resume. so underrated he doesn’t even get mentioned in “most underrated” talk. we’d faint if he was coming out in 2022
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nobody thought najee harris was bad at football until he played behind a bad steelers o-line, and now just typing his name is a siren song for the “lmfao dude sucks” prisoner-of-the-moment reply guys
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i'm watching bucky irving's midseason game vs washington rn and the huskies front seven is kinda having their way with the ducks offensive line but they also might as well be trying to tackle a rabbit lmao
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working on an isiah pacheco article and have to give major props. he ended his career by averaging 3.87 yards per carry behind a terrible rutgers offensive line as a senior, but
@MattWaldman
saw through the silliness and absolutely nailed this eval:
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since 2007, every rb drafted within three picks of where ____ went:
jonathon brooks at 46:
kerryon johnson
matt forte
derrick henry
le'veon bell
joe mixon
kenny irons
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rough estimate of opportunity available in the offenses that each rookie rb was drafted into. tell me i’m an idiot:
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if you’re selling the 22-year old freak show tight end who put up 1k yards as a rookie with a washed up qb on a terrible team and is now experiencing disappointing fantasy numbers while earning elite air yards totals with an even shittier qb, you’re bad at dynasty
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no rb's film has exceeded my expectations more this offseason than kimani vidal's
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i've more than dabbled in zach evans apologetics this offseason, but i don't think i've ever fully, publicly outlined why i believe in him so strongly.
in this (free!) article, i offer up the on-field, analytical grounds on which my eval is based:
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ahem
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i'm only two games into the kendre miller tape but he's close to lapping the field in terms of powering through contact, especially in the open field
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“early fourth round is basically day 2 and he’s gonna be their bellcow. it’s still wheels up”
“man that offense sucks, he was my rb1 coming in but in the fourth on a bad team i gotta fade”
just testing out my isaiah spiller coping strategies in case he goes to houston at 107
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post-draft reflection:
we (myself included) should all do a better job of not engaging in the useless/exhausting/toxic dick measuring contest of who got what right and wrong in player evals, projections, etc
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breece hall is seeing a ton of usage in the passing game. given his receiving profile at iowa state, my assumption (i haven't watched any jets games, c'mon now) was that much of that work was coming on screens, swing passes, checkdowns, etc.
pleasantly surprised to be very wrong
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idk who needs to hear this but zach evans is not 195 pounds.
he was most recently listed at 6’ 215 at ole miss, was listed at 5’11 212 at tcu as a sophomore, and (based on historical data) will likely be in the 5’10-11 and 215-220 range at the combine.
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ahem
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in light of michigan law school rejecting my application:
🐶 harbaugh is a cheater
🐶 blake corum is the product of his offensive line
🐶 jj mccarthy isn't a real qb prospect
🐶 go dawgs
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antonio gibson is the perfect example of a guy who checks the basic “we want our rbs to be big and athletic and catch passes” boxes but then makes us forget that there’s another big box called “reliably plays rb in a way that inspires confidence from an nfl coaching staff”
🚨 STOP DRAFTING ANTONIO GIBSON 🚨
-JD McKissic the preferred option on 3rd downs
-3rd round pick Brian Robinson just had 1,343 rush yards + 35 receptions + 16 TDs at Alabama in 2021
-Gibson is 2 (!!) injuries away 🚑 from winning you your league
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the best bijan robinson comp is david johnson. both of them are:
🛵 around 6’ 220
🛵 stupid athletes
🛵 powerful and elusive
🛵 versatile, downfield receivers
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the total off-season investment in the running back position by the jacksonville jaguars was pick 154 for snoop conner.
smells like confidence in travis etienne’s health to me.
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cam akers extends his streak of playing like ass in every game of his career but i’m sure it was because he’s hurt or has a shitty offensive line or something else that makes it not his fault because he’s actually elite alright
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nobody asked but these are my thoughts on the jahmyr gibbs usage situation (obvious “it’s just week 1” caveats apply)
*we* shouldn’t be surprised that gibbs isn’t being used a ton, but the lions don’t get to be off the hook
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i’m not very enthusiastic about ceh either but if everyone is sour on him because he’s been disappointing so far in his career then they need to wake up and realize that the other guys in this backfield are RONALD JONES AND JERICK MCKINNON
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jaylen wright and trey benson are moving way up my ranks now that i know they're fast, while audric estime is completely off my board that i know he's slow
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@BenjaminSolak
this scenario is beautiful because it means robinson’s job presumably came down to “if aj lights us up you’re gone”
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had today's news in february
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here are 36 running backs in this rookie class, sorted by the portion of their total yards that were gained in the open field (10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage). also listed is how often they reached the open field relative to their teammates:
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corny/earnest tweet:
in december ‘19, i was feeling existential about entering 2020, and i made a list of goals for myself for the next decade. one of them was to appear on a podcast with
@Fantasy_Mansion
.
on tuesday, i checked that off the list.
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because i just can’t stay away from the isaiah spiller discourse, i revived my dormant blog to publish the most self-indulgent piece of writing i’ve ever produced. my full take, and one in which i address every legitimate pro-spiller argument i’ve seen:
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220 pounds at 5'8 4/8" is obviously unbelievably rocked up for a normal person, but it's also notably dense for an nfl running back prospect. as far as i can tell, davis would be the heaviest sub-5'9 rb drafted in the last 15+ years if this weight holds through the combine
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here are two stylistic things i've been charting while i watch film on these 2023 rbs (explanations in follow-up tweets):
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there are more nfl-quality running backs than there are roster spots for running backs in the nfl rn
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