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Nathaniel Taplin Profile
Nathaniel Taplin

@nate_taplin

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China columnist + Asia Editor of @WSJHeard at @WSJ . 華爾街日報專欄作家. Formerly Dragonomics Beijing, Reuters Shanghai, WSJ HK. Opinions mine alone.

Taipei
Joined April 2016
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 months
1/ As we prepare to leave #Hualien , which is still trembling — seemingly small aftershocks nearly every half hour, or even more frequently — here is our big piece on the quake with @joyuwang and @ByChunHan
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
#Doraemon tries his hand at conducting at the #HongKongProtest march today. Largely peaceful and festive feeling here today.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
#Doraemon bids farewell to the crowd in central #HongKong
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Pretty interesting stuff from Commerzbank. Economists have long cast doubt on the effectiveness of tax cuts -- vs. infrastructure spending etc -- for short-term stimulus in the U.S. because people/firms tend to save a lot of the bounty. Now #China discovering the same problem.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(1) Major KMT argument in #TaiwanElection was more integration with CN economy is necessary for growth. Not clear this is true though. TW weathered the #TradeWar better than nearly any other Asian exporter bc of big surge in direct exports to the US.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Hong Kong is the most free economy in the world—in theory. In reality, most residents struggle to get by, and have little say in their political or economic future. via @WSJ
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
The great irony of the #trade war is that with declining investment returns and ugly demographics, China needs a more open, competitive economy -- like the US is advocating for -- more than ever
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
#China ’s tech crackdown has grabbed headlines but the biggest danger may be lurking somewhere far more familiar, says @jackycwong Over-enthusiastic—or terrified—regulators risk tripping up the real heart of China’s economy:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
#China 's Aug service PMI was terrible, as expected. But what may be more worrying is the broadening weakness in manufacturing too. My latest:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(1) Underpinning so much of the commentary on U.S- #China "decoupling" is the assumption that the U.S. will be just fine. That is questionable. The US depends on China for engineers since it can't be bothered to educate its own.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
China's demographic time bomb isn't ticking, it's already gone off. From here on out, maintaining high growth will get much harder. 2nd in our series:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 years
So interesting—so now not only speaking or writing, but even simply watching or witnessing may be dangerous in #HongKong
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
And trudges home, luggage in tow
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
(1) China's gummed-up monetary policy transmission in 3 charts. If they can't fix this, outlook for 2019 is pretty bad. #PBOC cuts to banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) successfully pushes financial system liquidity back higher...
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
11 months
1/ Nice shout out on my piece from @crampell at WaPo, who I’ve been reading for many, many years. And she’s absolutely correct—the US should stop shooting itself in the foot and be much more welcoming of skilled immigrants, from both China and elsewhere
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
I'm sure this will get drowned out in the election coverage. But here's my latest on #China and what its radical new shift towards self-reliance means for growth. In a nutshell = a very risky strategy which could easily go wrong.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
Update from the life of the other Nathaniel Taplin
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Now what? Possible "doom loop" btwn Trump, the Fed & PBOC, i.e. - Trump concludes Fed will ease to offset tariffs - adds more tariffs - PBOC eases to counter, #CNY falls - Lower China $ imports hit global growth - Fed eases further - PBOC eases further...
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Is this really what Beijing wants for #HongKong ? Why bother trying to build goodwill and soft power with mask donations, BRI, etc if the world is going to be watching you tear gas your own people, weekend after weekend, for the foreseeable future? Doesn't seem optimal.
@jamespomfret
James Pomfret
4 years
Breaking: tear gas fired in Causeway bay to disperse anti national security protesters #HongKongProtests
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
#Steel has fallen just 10% in the #COVID19 sell-off even though inventories have reached mountainous levels. If the Chinese housing market + construction don't roar back in April, steel could be the next commodity to get crushed.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
"China made very similar commitments when it joined the WTO.... Pledges to rein in state subsidies made 20 years ago are now being offered up agaIn... Beijing’s promise to “work towards” enforcing international conventions on labour standards are also laughably weak."
@bueti
Reinhard Bütikofer
3 years
Europe has handed China a strategic victory. The remarkable short-sightedness of a not-so-geopolitical European Commission and a What-is-good-for-VW-is-also-good-for-Europe GER Chancellor. via @FT
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
The Chinese media blackout on the #Trump tariff threat is truly amazing. On wallstreetcn (华尔街见闻)one of the main Chinese language financial newswire-like websites, only one mention of Trump since Sunday morning. On his call for lower US interest rates, naturally.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
1 year
This from ⁦ @NickKristof ⁩, who was in Tiananmen in 89, is the best on China I’ve read in a long time. Hits all the key points on Taiwan, reckless nationalism in both countries, & most importantly—the incredible lack of self-awareness in DC right now
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
#China stocks up sharply after State Council call for quicker muni bond issuance & infrastructure build, support for "reasonable" #LGFV financing, abundant liquidity. #Stimulus has clearly arrived: how far will it go? Read here:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
US markets are in full froth mode as evidenced by #GameStop and #silver but the Fed's hands are tied by the weak economy. Not so in China - #PBOC is sending clear signals of concern.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Why hasn't China's "socialist market economy" stagnated like the Soviet Union did? One answer: market discipline from direct competition with foreign firms. Last in our series: forsaking export-led growth could be disastrous.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
One of China's largest "grey rhinos" is poking its nose out of the bush again, says @jackycwong . Also featuring a fantastic, and slightly bizarre accompanying photo
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
China is telling its banks to lend to more private companies, but that won’t help their credit profiles
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(1) Business didn't desert HK during the #HongKongProtests - but did stop investing. One possibility for what happens now is that investment strike essentially becomes permanent, meaning slower growth + more resentment. Big $HSI fall not encouraging.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 years
I wrote on the #Ukraine crisis from China's perspective and what it might mean for the future. Essentially some benefits to Russia's isolation for China's energy security, but the joint sanctions move will raise a lot of hackles in Beijing.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
"Many senior Hong Kong officials, including the city’s leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam, have said they hadn’t seen the complete draft even as they tried to reassure residents..." A mockery of the idea of a high degree of autonomy.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
One of 2018's big mysteries is why, with so many private firms in obvious distress, has private investment in #China held up? My answer: #property . Until that turns, we won't see how bad things really are. Meantime, Xi's speech didn't offer much hope:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(1) ICYMI: The final piece in our series on the US and China's slide towards a new Cold War like competition. How to bargain with a #China that has effectively become the world's supply chain? Main hint: don't go it alone.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Surely #China will soak up all that cheap #oil ? Don't be so sure. Beijing will undoubtedly keep filling its SPR, but China already had more oil products than it needed before #COVID ー19, and spent the last couple months stocking up on crude. #OilPrices
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
If this isn't a sign of the times, I don't know what is. @jackycwong points out that Chinese liquor maker Kweichow Moutai is now worth more than ICBC, the world's biggest bank.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
Finally got the first “jab” and whole process was very smooth. I’m one of the ones slightly more at risk for an adverse reaction so they gave me a little red sticker (like in grade school) + had me wait around a bit longer. All good so far! #HKTwitterGetsVaxxed #GetVaccinated
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
The collapse of the #China 's wealth management product industry & private enterprise bond finance in tandem. WMPs had huge problems but did provide a way for private companies to issue bonds. That's gone now.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Totally different mood today in this sometimes impersonal and irritable city. Taxi driver gave me a huge grin this morning as he told me the road was blocked. #HongKong
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 years
1/ ICYMI, my latest: Nov's explosive #ChinaProtests reflect the terrible collateral damage from #ZeroCovid , but the backdrop is deep structural changes in China's economy. Whatever happens now, companies shouldn't assume this will be a temporary one-off.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
The sudden furor over H&M’s declaration on dropping #XinjiangCotton — months ago — is a sign of things to come. @Birdyword and my column on the unpalatable choice facing Western consumer brands in China.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Nice article from @JChengWSJ on China's recovery, with lots of local color and including the fault lines like the H1 inventory build-up.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
7 years
#China 's #overcapacity sunk the global steel industry. Now it's #oil refiners turn.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
1 year
1/ My latest, on the migratory habits of chips in Asia. The US has threatened sanctions on anyone who ships many, if not most varieties of #semiconductors to #Russia . But they keep showing up there anyway. My piece looks at some of the ways they travel.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
Investors are used to thinking of commodities as a straightforward #inflation play. But there are some unusual risk factors this time around—particularly for metals like #steel and #aluminum . My latest:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
ICYMI @melissakchan and I spoke with the BBC yesterday on what the new #NationalsecurityLaw means for #HongKong . The law is so broad that simply holding placards and flags resulted in arrests yesterday. It also criminalizes acts outside Hong Kong.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Fantastic article by @LandersWSJ on the parallels btwn Japan and China -- and many of the same points as our piece on 2025 yesterday . US may be misreading the real nature of the threat from China, namely its financial system via @WSJ
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(1) In the 5th of our series on US- #China decoupling, @Birdyword and I examine the nuclear option for the US: targeting CN banks' dollar funding. CN can't really retaliate. But slow growth & high debt means weaponizing the $ carries LT risks for the US.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
1/ As #Evergrande ’s dollar bond moment of truth arrives, @jackycwong and I pondered the risk that its individual woes morph into something much worse.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Now you see it, now you don't -- certain key data points on private sector financing have disappeared as the subject becomes more politically charged in China.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Wow. The 8 "rumor-mongers" who first raised the alarm on the #WuhanCoronaVirus and were threatened by police were doctors. Hard to have a more clearcut example of downsides of censorship than this. Seems like a watershed moment.
@Dali_Yang
Dali L. Yang
4 years
Wuhan hospitals had SARS cases. It turns out that all eight were doctors; at least one of them had contracted the #coronavirus while treating patients. A commentator from the Supreme People's Court weighed in that the eight were giving their opinion to the best of their
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Good thread on how the US, despite massive healthcare spending, is in some ways uniquely vulnerable to the #coronavirus . Low insurance coverage + high annual deductibles = Lower incentive to seek care, esp. early in the year. #COVID ー19 #CoronavirusOutbreak
@johngraves9
John Graves
4 years
The U.S. experience with a pandemic early in the calendar year will be uniquely challenging given that the vast majority of Americans have privately administered plans that (increasingly) rely on deductibles/cost-sharing as a fairly blunt utilization-management tool.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
#China cuts key lending facility #MLF rate for first time since 2016, 5 bps. MLF is the basis of China's new benchmark loan prime rate. Looks like a response to rising bond yields and weak Oct PMI.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Skeptics will take #China 's pledge to go carbon neutral by 2060 as a political gambit -- a convenient wedge issue btwn Europe and the U.S. Some truth to this. CN needs to show it's serious on reducing #coal burn: recent movt is in the other direction.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
There's little doubt #China handled the pandemic better than any other major economy. But it also benefited in 2020 from some good luck, which obviated the need for more aggressive stimulus.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
A clear sign of how quickly the Sino-US conflict has spun out of control + taken on a life of its own. Original hawk is now a dove, and the original rationale for escalation -- trade/IP -- completely forgotten. Reading my Jan article and shaking my head:
@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Before the trade deal, Lighthizer aligned on tactics w/ the admin’s uber hawks who favor a pressure-only approach vs China. With the Phase One trade deal, he’s more aligned w/ the admin’s few remaining globalists to preserve parts of the relationship.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
#Yuan selling off sharply this month. Markets should probably be more worried about #Fed and #PBOC parting ways -- China's success in containing outflows wasn't just about capital controls
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
"She had remembered a joke she’d read from the Soviet Union: an officer once arrested a person handing out fliers on Red Square, only to find that the fliers were blank. Undeterred, the officer shouted: 'You don’t think I know what you wanted to write?'"
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Here's a chart that should make #steel companies very nervous. Chinese steel product output (supply) is growing nearly as fast as property investment (demand) for the 1st time in years. Higher Chinese exports, lower global prices ahead?
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Having tried everything else, the #Trump administration is finally throwing up its hands and giving multilateralism a try as a way to pressure #China . The next phase of the trade war -- or rather supply chain war -- will look quite different.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 years
Even before coming into effect, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act had a devastating impact on sales of #Xinjiang cotton -- inventories are roughly a million tonnes higher than they were last year. But the story in polysilicon is totally different.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
China is slowing again, but different problems require different solutions—Heard on the Street via @WSJ
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
Chinese coal power roared back in Jan/Feb, up almost 10% -- seems pretty clear both citizens and steel plants started getting power back after the pollution crackdown went overboard in Nov and Dec
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Chinese excess capacity problem is back -- a bit different though. Chemicals and autos looking more vulnerable than steel for the time being
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Beijing's unyielding stance on #hongkong belies its still-deep dependence on the territory. The cost of intervention could be much higher than widely appreciated
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
President #Trump is convinced he has #China exactly where he wants them. Property and industry is telling a more nuanced story
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 years
Are foreign manufacturers giving up on China? Not exactly—but the stars are aligning for the long-predicted effort to diversify away more decisively. My latest:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Lower social credit score
@PDChina
People's Daily, China
5 years
Quick question: What do you think is the right way to deal with a cheeky kitty? 🐱
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
#China ’s new carbon trading scheme is a big step forward but also has some serious design flaws. Hopefully those will be remedied soon. My latest:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
@mcgregorrichard Big kudos to @Chao_Deng and Grace Zhu for great reporting. Kicker is also killer: “I’ve been with the bank for 10 years and have never seen service this good,” he said.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Huge surprise. And as @ChadBown recently noted, the phase one deal takes US average tariffs rates on China down less than 2%. Hard not to conclude this deal is mostly about trying to tilt the narrative -- rather than reality -- in the president's favor ahead of US election.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Re-upping this in light of weak #China April exports, -2.7% YoY against +14.2% in March. We've been telling investors for weeks to expect weaker April data, particularly for exports. Big base effect + the March VAT cut nearly guaranteed a weak April.
@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
Could get even uglier for Chinese stocks. VAT cut flattered the March manufacturing/export data, meaning payback is likely in April. So you could have a May of trade tensions + weak-ish macro data
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
3 years
1/ My latest: One of the most alarming dvlpts of recent days, even before the H&M #Xinjiang dust-up, were the very broad CN counter-sanctions against EU entities, including on EU members of parliament
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
By cracking down so hard on corruption, the Xi administration may have inadvertently undermined one of the Chinese system's greatest strengths -- its flexibility and tolerance for local experimentation via @WSJ
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
Interesting moment for #China data -- output, housing and trade still look ok, but PPI starting to hint at weakness. Housing and econ data over next 2 days will be key
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
If bitcoin is a commodity, not a currency, it could have a long, long way to fall -- Heard on the Street via @WSJ
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
1 year
A significant buying opportunity in Asia—for longer-term investors—could be hiding in plain sight says @jackycwong
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Tencent beat analysts' estimates yesterday thanks to strong revenue growth from gaming. But but leveling up further from here will require skillful play indeed, says @jackycwong
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Wow. Some ugly stuff if this is the real resolution. Sec. 4: "Central government departments related to maintaing natl security shall, according to the need, set up structures in #HongKong , and carry out their responsibilities in accordance with the law." #nationalsecuritylaw
@phoebe_kongwy
Phoebe Kong
4 years
#Breaking thread: Official doc of #HongKong national security law resolution revealed by souces - the new law will prohibit secession, subversion of state power, terrorism & foreign interference. It'll be listed under annex 3 of basic law, bypassing scrutiny of local legislature.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
And more. We highlighted this in Jan as another reason for modest not overwhelming monetary stimulus. Rock/hard place: to support infrastructure & biz investment, need looser monetary policy. But that also pumps up property, crowds out consumption.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
#HongKong is and remains an incredible mix of blade runner like dystopian density and mind boggling physical beauty
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
Investors are rushing back into US #stocks based on questionable premises say @Birdyword and @jdlahart . If you have cash, consider taking a look at Chinese bonds. $DJI #COVID2019 #CoronavirusOutbreak
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
6 years
Global #PMIs are starting to send a pretty ugly signal... fact that Chinese output is growing so much faster than orders particularly worrying. Return of overcapacity?
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(1) Nice column by @Birdyword on the cost of #China 's constant bullying of neighbors like India. It may win discrete economic/military fights but forfeits leadership on regional trade agreements & standard setting because neighbors simply don't trust it.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
#China housing coming under pressure again. Still no big policy response. Why? Inflation, keeping powder dry are certainly factors. But also clues external headwinds are ebbing: US PMI, semiconductor sales, global mfg PMI showing hints of bottoming.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
(3) If the US wants to "decouple" and stay ahead, it needs to start investing seriously in science and math education. And also in government funded R&D again. All of that probably means higher taxes -- especially since the risk of military conflict is now rising as well.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
5 years
China Caixin #PMI at nearly 3-year high latest evidence of a light industry uptick in China. Unlike the competition + big banks, we've been highlighting this for months: read @WSJheard #China or miss out.
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
2 years
A defeat at the hands of one of India’s wealthiest men—who employed some bare-knuckle business techniques—shows Amazon has a tough road ahead in the crucial growth market says @MeghaMandavia
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
4 years
@Birdyword Think Japan has a lot of leverage right now for many reasons. If they really presented a united front on trade with the US CN would be in serious trouble. And if JP were to advocate for Taiwanese membership in the CPTPP...
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
1 year
US- #China relations used to be anchored by the principle of common interests. But these days, a different immutable law of the universe -- Murphy's Law -- seems more apt. That should deeply worry everyone:
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@nate_taplin
Nathaniel Taplin
7 years
#Oil markets mesmerized by #Saudi drama should mind the lag -- US #shale won't sit this one out forever
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