Patrick Hulme
@mphulme
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War Powers, U.S. Foreign Policy, Int'l Security | @ufhamilton đ |@StanfordCISAC @AWConsortium @UCIGCC affiliate | former @BelferCenter @UCSDPoliSci @UCLA_Law
Gainesville, FL
Joined November 2016
Questions about how the âwar powersâ work in practice? Check out my piece in @apsrjournal. TL;DR President is far more constrained by Congress that usually realized.
Just published on APSR First View: War and Responsibility by M. PATRICK HULME (@mphulme ) https://t.co/0PndFiHsyy
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Trump admin tells Congress it currently lacks legal justification to strike Venezuela | CNN Politics
cnn.com
The âexecute orderâ that launched the US military campaign against suspected drug boats in September also does not extend to land targets, the briefers said, according to the sources.
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These are the U.S. ships and aircraft massing off Venezuela
washingtonpost.com
The large-scale buildup of U.S. military forces and assets in the Caribbean suggests that the Trump administration is preparing to expand operations.
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Trump administration tells Congress war law doesnât apply to cartel strikes
washingtonpost.com
The Office of Legal Counsel told select lawmakers that the executive branch is not bound by the War Powers Resolution, which requires congressional approval for any military action that exceeds 60...
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Excited that my article, "To Agree or Not to Agree: Hawks, Doves, and Regime Type in International Rivalry and Rapprochement," is now out at @IntSecHarvard @mitpress. It is available to all here ( https://t.co/BSM702ntQN) or see the abstract below.
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As U.S. forces close in on Venezuela, lawmakers warn of âexpandingâ operation
washingtonpost.com
The Trump administration has sent warships, fighter jets and surveillance aircraft to the region as it wages what it says is armed conflict against narcoterrorists.
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Trump Claims the Power to Summarily Kill Suspected Drug Smugglers - The New York Times
nytimes.com
The move to treat criminals as if they were wartime combatants escalated an administration pattern of using military force for law enforcement tasks at home and abroad.
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Senators Move to Force Vote to Bar Ground Strikes in Venezuela - The New York Times
nytimes.com
The bid comes after the Senate rejected a similar measure to curb President Trumpâs attacks against alleged drug runners in the Caribbean Sea.
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Lindsey Graham says lawmakers to be briefed on potential Venezuela land attack
thehill.com
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) said Sunday that President Trump told him that he plans to brief members of Congress on possible military action in Latin America, including potentially shifting âŚ
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Sen. Lindsey Graham says Pres. Trump to brief cong. leaders when back from Asia trip on Venez/ Carr. Strikes
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Ceasefire: Senators Coons and Lankford on U.S. Operations in Venezuela https://t.co/yE7u2dcnFj via @YouTube
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Finding 2: This disagreement has significant downstream consequences. Re-running the original analyses with LLM annotations produced highly variable coefficient estimates, often altering the conclusions of the original studies.
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Eddie Yang et al. Doing really interesting replication work with LLMs. Check it out!
New paper: LLMs are increasingly used to label data in political science. But how reliable are these annotations, and what are the consequences for scientific findings? What are best practices? Some new findings from a large empirical evaluation. Paper: https://t.co/F8FlrsLbzM
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Senate votes down war powers resolution aimed at blocking Trump's strikes on alleged drug boats https://t.co/9dRb6GIHPo via @CBSPolitics
cbsnews.com
Senate Democrats forced a vote under the War Powers Act aimed at blocking continued U.S. strikes on alleged drug-carrying boats off the coast of Venezuela.
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In other words, in imbalance of power was more likely to lead to peace; "peace through strength" is not incorrect.
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Resolution, @notanastronomer, Erik Gartzke, and Alex Braithwaite show that once one takes distance and location into account, states are roughly 3X more likely to fight when power is balanced.
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New Pub Alert đ¨: Are states more likely to fight when there is a balance of power between them, or an imbalance of power? It's been a very long debate over decades, but one that has taken little account of WHERE states may fight. In our new paper in the Journal of Conflict
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Erik Gartzke started a paper in 2010. @mphulme and I took it over in⌠2018? anyway, itâs out in JCR now:
journals.sagepub.com
Students of international relations continue to debate the role of power as a cause of conflict. In particular, there exists no consensus about whether power pa...
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Trump has overridden a remarkable range of political norms. Yet Patrick and I show that, at least when it comes to bombing Iran, Trump largely did what Congress wanted. For better or for worse, thereâs been overwhelming R and even some limited D support.
Check out @KenealyAM and my new Lawfare piece using AI to measure lawmaker sentiment toward the Iran strikes last month. Punchline: more support than you might have imagined, both before and after.
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