Mouzam
@mmali09
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Market learner | Never Knowingly Misguide | Tweets/RTs ≠ Recommendation | Not SEBI registered | Anyone spreading Misinformation will be BLOCKED.
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market is set to grow at +30% CAGR for at least next 5 years from ₹1,469Bn to ₹6,000Bn by FY27.
🧵 on some spl. business insights from Q3FY23 concall & other sources
@soicfinance
@ishmohit1
1 can't miss this decadal opp.
Retweet♻️ & Like👍
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#Heranba
Anti-Thesis (Regulatory Risk)
1/ Started reading about the co. since it has one of the best ROCE in the AgroChem Industry with decent margins and reasonably valued.
Although growth levers are in place one long term risk stood out for me. Here's a 🧵on it
#Agrochemical
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Compelled to take down notes from this very interesting talk by
@SamitVartak
and share with the Investing community. Was introduced to this gentleman by
@ishmohit1
- Thanks !!
Highly recommended to watch it.
♻️Retweet to if you find my notes useful
Do hear my discussion with
@PMS_AIF_World
. You may find a different perspective on sustainable and high growth businesses that deliver multi- bagger returns. Hope this will be of value to you.
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#Turnaround
High level case study
Incredible transformation results in 20x returns in 1 year for this co.
Sales - more than doubled
OPM% from 3-4% to 12%
Interest exp - fell over a period due to deleveraging
PAT - from consistent loss to 600cr.
👍♻️🧵
1/
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1/ Its been a while since I last posted🧵
But when your mentor asks you to read a business you oblige. Thanks
@ishmohit1
, please add your insights if you find any gaps.
#Taskus
🇺🇸 $TASK
"Outsourcing reimagined for the innovation age"
🔥60% Revenue CAGR over past 4 years
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#Mastek
Phenomenal runway for growth in N. America which is the real focus of mgt. Focusing on Healthcare & Lifesciences and Manufacturing & Retail Verticals. Capturing bigger customer.
#Q4FY21Concall
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Always a pleasure to listen
@arvind_kothari
.
📌Initially, aim to multiply capital with bigger bets & concentrated PF.
📌Buffet was Madly Bullish about🇺🇸& thats why did well, similarly we can do well by being bullish about🇮🇳growth story & investing here.
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#Hikal
The result Q2 FY22 wasn't as terrible as imagined with the kind of correction in the stock price. It was actually commendable given the circumstances.
- Structural tailwinds
- Strong growth
- Capex & products launch
- Short term RM volatility - not much margins impact
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The industry itself is growing at double digit CAGR. Great proxy to Real estate/Infra spending.
Attached some of my notes and observations from earlier FY21 concalls. (kindly also read latest filings)
Another great blog from
#SOIC
#PrincePipes
#CPVC
A detailed blog on Prince Pipes and what makes a Pipe company successful with comparison across the industry: by
@badola_arjun
Link to read🔗:
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#Dharmaj
Perhaps the fastest growing
#Agrochemical
co. 40% CAGR (5yrs)
Mcap - 739Cr.
🌱Aiming to Double revenue every 3 years
🌱Entering higher margins Technicals & AI (backward integration)
🌱200Cr. Capex go live in Q3FY24
🌱Asset TO 3x
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#Specialsituation
#Spinoff
#Demerger
#AARTIPHARM
🧵
- Business overview
- Financials
- Valuations
- 1 year Concall highlights (Q1 FY22 to Q1FY23)
Took long to compile this
Retweet♻️ & Like👍
For wider reach
@soicfinance
@itsTarH
@Shubham_TLI
@ValueEducator
@Gautam__Baid
1/14
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#Sudarschem
Weekend reading: In search of Value
#MeanReversion
Triggers:
- Deleveraging B/S
- Margins bottomed out from historical lows
- ROE at historical low
- Sitting on operating leverage post huge capex
- P/S Valuation lower than historical mean
Key Takeaways🧵♻️👍
1/n
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#Nykaa
💄Very excited to watch this one. The 1st thing to notice - it's a 47mins analysis !!!
Its a deep dive session at no cost 🎁
Nykaa's Business analysis🛍️🛒 and how it is beating everyone else. This analysis will teach you how to analyse e-comm businesses and there is plenty of scuttlebutt too with multiple perspectives (brands, customers etc).
Link to our channel 🔗:
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Mr. Bharat Shah's (ASK) debut on
#Princepipes
Q3 FY22 concall asking excellent 🏗️Strategic questions.
Interesting LT co. & industry perspective
- PVC prices have bottomed out
- Flowguard Plus CPVC segment, +30% growth in Q3 improved product mix (realisation) & premiumise.
1/n
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@ishmohit1
You really cracked me up on this one😂
"Webinar me Stock ideas BHAAD me jaye if you take away a learning that will be my biggest achievement"
Watching on demand - Great stuff🎓Very enjoyable, insightful, detailed, excellent presentation - Mehnat dikhti hai💪👌👏
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Guru ji
@ishmohit1
your message validates my efforts 😊. Thanks for being You !!!! Always stay the same.
Please read through my thank you note.
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#JUBLINGREA
Just released Sept '21 Investor presentation. Must read, expansive & detailed.
#JUBLINGREA
#FY21AR
Compiled together some interesting insights from various pages.
Its an extremely informative AR with broad industry & segment wise overview. MUST READ
Lot of moving parts but looks very optimistic & strong growth outlook.
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I'm happy & excited to announce that today I passed my final section & I am now a Certified Internal Auditor (CIA) and hold dual certification along with US CPA (US ka CA) 😇🕺🎉
Excited coz now I can devote time to pending and growing list of ARs, Presentations, interviews etc
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If you want to understand
#EMS
industry, this is an absolute Goldmine.
- Industry
- Value chain
- Whats commodity/specialty
- Barriers/Challenges/Growth prospects etc.,
Published by Cyient DLM (upcoming de-merger)
@ishmohit1
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Interesting note on Holding co. & returns of Top 18 Holdco since FY11 and FY16.
#Kamaholdings
#Kama
Attractive due to👇🏻
Twin Returns Engine:
1. Strong Earnings growth from underlying stock✅
2. Narrowing of High Holdco Discount✅
1/3
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#Mastek
Watch from 51min onwards to learn about:
- New CEO's approach to grow the biz
- US biz & acquisition discussion and size of M&A
It will be extremely interesting to see what capabilities & skills we'll acquire in US & scale up biz there.
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#Tarsons
Update💪
- H1 FY22 -> Revenue🆙40% YoY, EBITDA at 52% against 46.5%
- Continued strong robust traction in H2 FY22
- New Capex to commission by Mid FY23
(expanding capacity for new & existing products, backward integration)
- Reduced Debt by Rs. 78 Cr (IPO proceeds)
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🚅Riding the "Bulk" chemical Rally but there is "Speciality" in store later🎢
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Q4 Concall Reading over the weekend:
#TALBROAUTO
Mcap - 638Cr
P/E - 11.5x
#WPIL
Mcap - 2883Cr
P/E - 15x
- Interesting mgt. commentary & guidance
-
#WPIL
did its 1st ever concall
- All Pump cos. posted good results w/ strong guidance
- Order book & growth triggers👇🏻
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#PCBL
Big Moves:
1. Specialty chemicals (water treatment/green bio-degradable chelates) acquisition for 3800 cr
2. $16M JV into nano silicon tech for EV battery
Commodity biz to ♻️ Future ready, high margin biz w/ potential to grow large.
Interesting bit on patented EV tech👇🏻
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Wish I understood this in 2020 when I was looking to invest in Midcap IT. Looked at this co. many times but didn't get the edge they have until now.
Their Strong partnership & Diverse capabilities positions them very well to grab every opportunity & keep growing.
Essentially, any co that's extremely agile, has a strong DevOps culture, works with all hyperscales, all enterprise clouds, industry SaaS, domain cloud apps etc will continue to give you growth. Rest everyone will find it extremely hard to justify valuation.
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What a journey this has been, Immense Pride 🙌!!! More power to you and your team
@ishmohit1
@soicfinance
🙏💪
🏛SOIC🏛- Inclusiveness & Diversity, Humble, Never knowingly misguide, Trust, Approachable, Educate, Add great value & Mentorship.
Our First ever Annual Letter to Stakeholders|Looking back and forward ✍️📝
Written with case studies :)
Link to read🔗-
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I had prepared these notes when choosing between
#Princepipes
and
#Apollo
since I already had mental facts why I didn't wanted a Big Player.
Thanks for your question &
@soicfinance
for retweet and greater reach.
Here is an interesting industry level🧵
♻️Retweet if you liked it
@mmali09
@soicfinance
There would be multiple winners right... How about comparison with other players... Other than Apollo... What makes it different and give some sort of edge over others... I mean does it have what it takes to be no 2 maybe... Ashirvad is pretty dominant too and its not listed
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Eagerly awaiting ! If u can, please cover the aspect of "Ethical mgt."👇🏻people perceive hospitals as unethical many times.
I personally know some famous Dr.s in
#KIMS
/Sunshine and how ethical the mgt. is which listens to Dr. and doesn't push them for unnecessary tests/treatments
SOIC Sectoral Analysis|The Hospital Sector on the coming Sunday🥼🏥🚨🚨
We will be doing a deep dive on:-
1. Aster DM 🏥
2. Kovai Medical🏫
3. HCG💉
4. Apollo&Max🩺
5. NH 🥼
Registrations closing on Friday :)
Link to register🔗:
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#JubilantIngrevia
Good result for FY21👌
🧪Strong Demand across all segments
🧪Diketene derivatives expansion on track
🧪FY22 Capex- Rs.350cr
⬇️Net Debt by Rs.594cr will cont. to reduce
🔥FY21 ROCE- 20% vs 12%
🔥FY21 CFO- Rs.680cr vs 316cr
👌Asset TO - 2x
🚀EPS Rs.20 vs 14
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#Acrysil
1/ Next Target, Rs.500cr➡️Rs.1000cr in LT. This can be fairly achieved from IKEA sales majorly.
- 🔼Capacity - 100K units
- But not sure abt IKEA contract length (🔥risk)
- UK acquisition to⬆️distribution
- Domestic mrkt stagnant. Revenue & Dist. network↔️ since 4yrs.
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#PIIND
Good result given the current environment of high pressure on margins & impact on exports.
- New product launches
- Upsurge in new enquiries
- Flow Chemistry & Bio-Chemical (intermediates) pilot facility
- Electronic chemical mfg.
+20% Non Ag-Chem products in R&D Pipeline
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#Intellectdesignarena
FY21 saw IDA significantly scale up its
- SaaS rev ⏫47% YoY
- License rev⏫35% YoY
- License rev at 54% from 46% from FY20.
#intellect
🔥 more to come
These metrics establish Intellect’s growth journey as a Cloud native Fintech Product platform.
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Biggest winner for CY23
#TalbroAuto
1. Cheap starting valuation (11x) -> provides room for re-rating (now 30x)
2. Right Allocation (12%) -> moves overall PF meaningfully,🧠worked on this aspect this yr.
+ Luck
🚀Multi-bagger has 2 engines = Earnings Growth + Stock Re-rating
Q4 Concall Reading over the weekend:
#TALBROAUTO
Mcap - 638Cr
P/E - 11.5x
#WPIL
Mcap - 2883Cr
P/E - 15x
- Interesting mgt. commentary & guidance
-
#WPIL
did its 1st ever concall
- All Pump cos. posted good results w/ strong guidance
- Order book & growth triggers👇🏻
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Plastic pipes FY20-FY23 performance
#Astral
Baap Baap hota hai, even their bottom margins are in DD when others go(-)
#Apollopipe
Low base - growing faster, interestingly they are able to outperform even when industry volumes drop
#Princepipe
Ramp up issues & high base
1/n
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#ShilcharTech
One w/ higher return ratios due to lower B2G, Higher exports & focus on private clients. Lower debt req. & lower debtors days & WCC.
Focuses on renewable energy Transformers.
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#EV
#2W
It is est. 37% of 2W industry will be EV by 2030. However, the FAME subsidy exhaustion could be the biggest near term hurdle.
At the end will talk about
#GREAVESCOT
#GreavesCotton
🔋and let you develop your own understanding of risk & reward
*This is not an exhaustive 🧵
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#Tarsons
Views YoY💪
1/ Assuming cont. momentum if they do 70cr Sales in Q4FY22, and even if margins drop to FY21 levels next Qtr they will end up growing 25%+
FY22 Rev/EBITDA/PAT 🆙 25%/35%/34% YoY.
#Tarsons
Update💪
- H1 FY22 -> Revenue🆙40% YoY, EBITDA at 52% against 46.5%
- Continued strong robust traction in H2 FY22
- New Capex to commission by Mid FY23
(expanding capacity for new & existing products, backward integration)
- Reduced Debt by Rs. 78 Cr (IPO proceeds)
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7/ How to spot these companies:
1. Screener Quarterly results tool, if using free version, you can still browse manually.
or
2. Create a custom screen to filter for such co. -> make sure to tick "Only companies with Dec 2023 results" & Refresh the list daily at the EOD.
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Great post !!! Playing the Building material/Home improvement Theme with a Basket Approach 🧺
Eight types of companies in the Home Improvement space!
Full post 🔗 -
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#Hikal
One of the Corporate Governance risk in the past was inadequate disclosures. Looks like they are working on fixing it now. 👍🏻
Hikal sales will be hit in Q1FY22 due to a lack of industrial oxygen availability for one of its products in the crop protection business.
Improvement in disclosures of the company 🏑
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Reading a co. into Critical application Industrial Equipment🛠️
- Mgt. restructured 1-2 yrs ago
- MD, Ex-Siemens Head
- Growth is back & margins⬆️
- 1st concall in Q1 FY24
- Considering Warrants issue📈
- MNC collaborations
MCap < 700Cr
P/E 19x
Guiding 25% CAGR nxt few yrs
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Amazing new feature on
@screener_in
Just do a word search in the "search for a company"
@faltoo
since you have all the co. tagged with backend data would it be possible to add a 2nd filter layer comprising of fundamentals like Industry, Mcap, ROCE etc to reduce no. of results ?
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15/ With this exercise I think I'll be more thoughtful of the products that a chemical company manufactures and its environmental risks.
Let me know what do you think about this regulatory risk.
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#Rajratan
💎 one of my highest conviction. Very satisfying to see another holding turn a multibagger, Let your winners run !!
- World
#2
post capex
- Lowest cost producer in the world
- Outperforming the industry and gaining market share.
Not a buy rec. Your money your risk
How the 'Lollapalooza Effect' is playing in favour of Rajratan Global Wire?
1. The import of tyres in India has been restricted. Which is positive for Indian tyre makers.
2. The exports of tyre from India have been consistently increasing.
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Another interesting IPO in terms of both Business profile & Valuations. The margins profile here is 🤯 compared to industry leaders.
@soicfinance
Insightful business analysis 👌💪
Upcoming IPO which is a proxy play on Healthcare and R&D.
Covered both risks and growth triggers+the valuations of the business :)
Link to watch 🔗:
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Craftsman Automation
Diversifying Powertrain vertical: Interesting insights🧵
Sharing my notes on recent "Dr Axion India pvt." acquisition by
#Craftsman
Buy price - ₹375 Cr
Axion FY21-22 Sales - ₹716 Cr
P/S - 0.5x
Adds >30% to the +₹2000 Cr Top line
Retweet♻️
1/n
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Just Moved to 🇬🇧. Might not be active for another week or two. Closer to my dream of watching CR7 play live !!!
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Enjoyed this candid conversation bhai
@Shubham_TLI
Actionable & practical !! US waale kisson pe maza aagaya😄
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Institution turning positive on Small Cap
#IT
with a poetic quote 😄
@Finstor85
- Demand concerns may not be as severe as feared
- IT Small cap discount to
#CNXIT
expanded to 45% capturing near term growth worries
Full Report :
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#JUBLINGREA
#FY21AR
Compiled together some interesting insights from various pages.
Its an extremely informative AR with broad industry & segment wise overview. MUST READ
Lot of moving parts but looks very optimistic & strong growth outlook.
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Been studying this co. (Cyclical)
- Huge cash on B/S (commodity bull run)
- Frwd integrating
- Exp. capacities >2x
- Turnaround
- One of the fully integrated lowest cost mfg.
- Volatile commodity prices
- Entry price & Exit timing -> Critical
- Experimenting w/ capped position
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#Rajratan
- First Buy at 291
- Sold major portion around 800 & 1000 (down from 10% of PF to 3%)
- Missed another 1x with Compounding Kicking In
- Lesson learnt: Trail with 20 & 40 MA instead of selling due to over valuation concerns & Enjoy momentum for the hard work you done.
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63/ Wow !! that was really long, unlike Indian market stocks I didn't find any research report on this US company so had to do all the dirty stuff myself. But this was a very enlightening process.
Thank you for reading, if you liked it then kindly retweet and share🧵♻️
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#TatvaChintan
Another Top Niche spl. chemical co.🧵
- Sole producer or Top Market Leader
- IPO 💰for Capacity exp., R&D
- 70% Export Rev
- Focus on emission control & cleaner chem process provides huge potential
- Pharma & Agro Intermediaries
- Battery electrolytes could be BIG
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#SonaBLW
Although they operate in a cyclical industry they have consistently delivered Gross & EBITDA margins > 55% & 25% respectively.
- 17% Rev. from China is also interesting since it's the largest EV market.
- Solid EV Order📘
- Customer stickiness
- Looks Very interesting
This is what fast growth looks like :). Disc: no holdings due to the current valuation
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Decade of India !!!
* Unfolding "Dream" Capex cycle
* Focus on sustainability
* Sustained strong IT growth
* Interesting E-Comm opportunity
* Mid-Caps - Greatest💰opportunities
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5/ Thats the name,
#Jaibalaji
Big Capex plans to support the Tailwinds. You should read about the company to fully appreciate it.
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#Gabriel
#Railway
#Gabrielindia
Investors seem to be getting excited with this first time full-fledged railways slide. Here are some snippets from Q2FY23 concall.
Q1. Is it a Railway play ?
Q2. Can EBITDA % move to DD ?
P.S - Sab Moh Maya Hai !!
1/6
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#Aartipharmalabs
#AARTIPHARM
#SpecialSituation
Based on declared FY23 9M ending Dec 22 results
Sales ⬆️22%
PAT⬆️24%
EBITDA - 18% vs 17% FY22
At CMP - 260
Approx.
P/E - 15.5x
P/S - 1.6x
Mcap - 2,356 Cr
Capex - 350-500cr
Will be interesting to see how far forced selling will go
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The only way to sit tight is by building a strong bunker of "Self-Conviction" & yet being open minded to critically assess new information.
Have been sitting on businesses comfortably that aren't moving anywhere or are giving negative returns. No pressure to beat market in ST.
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#Sirca
Paints-Growing Wide, Fast & Strong
🧵Deep dive into key highlights of the business
~Interesting small co. in paints & wood coating
~Transforming products PF & becoming Pan India
~Aggressively expanding
~Guiding for 50-60% growth for next 3-5yrs
Retweet for wider reach♻️
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#AgroChemicals
#PIIND
Exporters to Outperform
- Strong Exports momentum - estimates 18% YoY growth & 12% for domestic cos.
- Believes margins peaked in FY21 except for co's with differentiated portfolio
- RM prices remain High
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@gurudh
@soicfinance
@souvikb22402050
Stock performance is nothing but the reflection of the underlying biz. Try to understand the biz and estimate future outcomes know the risks involved (variables). You don't have to be 100% accurate. If you find a biz difficult to understand, look at simple ones. Exercise this!!
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Well covered all points
@badola_arjun
👌
Re-emphasizes my concerns abt Apollo when compared to Prince👑.
Another Superb Blog by
@badola_arjun
. This time on Apollo Pipes 🏗️🏗️
This completes our PVC/CPVC pipes industry analysis. Done with Astral,Prince and Apollo 😀
Link to read🔗:
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There are 2 models that business generally follow:
1. Low Value High Mix (LVHM) - eg. consumer
2. High Value Low Mix (HVLM) - eg. Industrial
This data suggests both type of businesses are set for long-term high growth.
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Looking at margins esp. GM amidst the severe headwinds in
#Agrochemicals
could tell you where to start reading due to historically Low Valuations now.
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2/ About the co. - Great export biz - almost 50% Revenue from sales in 60+ countries (Exports). No client concentration risk with top 10 making 23% sales only.
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#Multibagger
Traits
⚖️≠ same
- Large TAM
- Scalable biz
- Consistent earnings growth for long period
- Competitive advantage (cost, brand, client relationship or R&D)
- Strong Cashflows to fund future Growth
- High ROCE
- Mgt skin in the game
- Good CG/capital allocation
📺👇
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Well covered👌I would say Mgt is cognisant of their dependence on UK and sees US as their next leg of growth which is evident from the new hiring of US based CEO.
They are actively looking at M&A to add new capabilities to scale up US biz. This is🔑👀
The 3rd co that we are going to study today is a smallcap, although by definition it isn't a smallcap, but by operations it still is. This 🧵is even longer than previous ones. Here is one for
#Mastek
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#Suvenpharma
merger
#Cohance
biz snippets:
- Innovator CDMO +30% of total biz (+35% CAGR growth)
- Sales 22% CAGR FY20-22
- ROCE 33%
- EBITDA 28%
- High purity electronic chemicals
- Strong mgt.
- Relationship with +25 pharma & spec chem innovators
@jeevanpatwa
1/n
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Discl: Closely tracking/studying
#SBCL
#XPROINDIA
#Kaynes
#Syrma
, may have a position in some.
#Cyient
is another one. Looking fwrd to
@soicfinance
Sunday video on that biz.
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6/ Pyrethroids are less acutely toxic than organophosphate pesticides, but are associated with neurological disorders in humans and are harmful to pollinators and fish (remember this).
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