Ameya
@Finstor85
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Cover Tech & Retail businesses + Trade Nifty + everything that's tradable. Tweets are my personal views.
Joined July 2019
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As market continues to tumble, there can't be a better time to make a career progression, scale up in your own profession. Happy to share I also contributed to attrition % (not to Indian IT) & taking up a senior role in one of the listed cos here, engaging w/ clients across EU.🙏
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If you are in losses, not able to think through, or having feeling of messed up, pl DM, I will be happy to give an ear & a brotherly view, if possible. Markets can be brutal. We have to be there for those who are new rather than mocking their views. 🙏
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Added
LTI at 5900
LTTS at 4500
Dmart at 4000
Just too good levels to top up. Core is always the safest ones to deploy in such times. If we fall more, I am prepared to add at 10% further drop but just too good levels to miss.
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Topped up 2 of my core PF stocks. LTI & LTTS. Will top up even further if it falls more. Happy to hold it without any returns for next 12-18m. For me this is an amazing level personally. Pl use discretion & don't blindly follow pl 🙏
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Those buying LTTS w/ hope of it running like ELXSI will either sell off midway or curse the company eventually. However, the magic will happen. But these guys won't be invested when it starts. 0 business understanding, total thesis on the hope.
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It is disheartening to see Pine Labs will be listing on NASDAQ & not in India. Company banao India me, list karo US me. Why? Our indian investors deserves access to our own unicorns.
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The 3rd co that we are going to study today is a smallcap, although by definition it isn't a smallcap, but by operations it still is. This 🧵is even longer than previous ones. Here is one for
#Mastek
Starting tomorrow I will aim to cover at least 15-20 IT/Tech companies & discuss them in a template manner. Following aspects will be covered:
* Industries & Domains
* Services
* Products
* Cloud/Digital?
* USP
* Client Profile
* Revenue Profile
* Scale Profile
Stay tuned!
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Starting tomorrow I will aim to cover at least 15-20 IT/Tech companies & discuss them in a template manner. Following aspects will be covered:
* Industries & Domains
* Services
* Products
* Cloud/Digital?
* USP
* Client Profile
* Revenue Profile
* Scale Profile
Stay tuned!
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Tata Steel has an untold analytics story that I haven't seen anyone talk about. In the days when DS & Analytics wasn't even a thing they embarked on a analytics led $1bn cost saving prog. which led to an award from WEF. Such domestic stories must be told openly & boldly.
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Brilliant results, prima facie, by
#HCLTech
. I will be honest, I am pleasantly surprised. So far we have had 2 strong results - TCS & HCL Tech. HCL seems to have clawed back the entire slippage on the services vertical they had last Q. Not so good nos as usual by Wipro.
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There's deep pessimism on IT cos. From foolish euphoric narratives to blinded bearishness is the journey we have completed. 10% more cuts & a lot of cos will come at great levels. The worst is behind. We need some consolidation that's all.
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Visited an old age home & felt so abysmally flat only to realise that nothing remains forever - age, youth, mindfulness, relevance, health. So be respectful while you can to everyone. Don't wear egos when young. Love your folks, cherish them cuz one day it will be your turn.
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Superb result by ELXSI! No mean feet to improve margins from 30% base to 30.7%. simply super execution.
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I think finally I have made a conclusion with
#Netweb
's business model. Thank you to those who graciously reached out to discuss in DM. I will put out my understanding in a day or two. Want to carefully draft it to make it easier to understand.
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Unsolicited advice: No matter how much $ you're making. Regardless of your position, reach, don't get arrogant in communication, public speaking. Don't judge people too quickly. Basic mannerisms in speaking can take you a long way. Cherish, nurture your network.
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Fortune lists
#LTIMindtree
as one of the top 50 global companies that are best positioned for the future. No. 20 it is.
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What a performance by Accenture! Big numbers, what a growth. Those who wrote off IT, be prepared to eat your own words.
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Amidst all the gloom & crash posts let me just share my experience & learnings of 2008!! Back then the crash was very prolonged & painful. I was new in the market & left market after losing major capital. I came back only after 3yrs. The reason was two fold:
1. Many companies I…
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Goosebumps, tears, joy, exhilaration, never experienced so many emotions in 4 mins. One day when I miss so much being in Bharat. Feel that pull towards my mother nation.
A Dream of Billions stands fulfilled!
Today, We Celebrate! 🪔
#JaiSriRam
#AyodhyaRamMandir
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This is literally the reason so many top tier IT cos are in trouble. Trying to justify too many positions that add hardly any value. Portfolio manager, agilist, scrum master, project manager, release manager, cutover manager, data manager and what not.
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#TejasNetworks
what a come back! scale, execution, all back on track. Ab ye uthpath machayega..
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I have seen many traders through my time in market. But the kind of grasp
@nishkumar1977
has on Nifty is unmatched. Absolutely unmatched. Finding such people makes twitter worth spending time. Nish - from a fellow trader - Amazing work with *consistency* very few can claim this.
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I presented this in Microcap & SMEs session, though, the company isn't a microcap, neither is SME. But I wanted to present clear positioning on
#netweb
that some twitter gurus have blown out of proportion. Understanding what company truly is helps in assessing risks & threats. If…
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IT/Tech will go through a discounting phase now in which every good news will be discounted by the market. Previously, every normal was getting premium. Now exactly the opposite will happen.
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Jo miss karta hai woh hamesha valuation ki baat karta hai, Jo invested hota hai woh hamesha tailwinds ki.
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Pehle attrition se panic machao, phir demand cut ka fear failao, phir sustainable nai hai bolke get ready for massive layoffs bolo. Some firangi handles only talk negative. Sector me Kabhi kaam Kiya nai, but kya hone wala hai in paper doctors ko pata hai
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Finally done with the Industry deep dive on IT with
@soicfinance
&
@ishmohit1
. Didn't anticipate it would go on for 7-8hrs. Had to cover a lot of concepts briefly which I'd love to cover further deeply. If you found any gaps, pl be so kind & let me know. Happy to learn further.
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Absolutely stunner of a result! Positioning, positioning, positioning! only thing that works in this templatized domain. From the edge to slowly into the core. What a performance this has been.
#newgensoftware
The blended position is now 4x! Those who thought it's peaked out,…
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No matter how much you want it to fall, we are the first to stand. IT in green.
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Something is not fitting in the small/microcap IT cos. I have been reading concalls of many cos that are commonly discussed & there is 1 common theme - everyone says they will either double the rev in 3y or do 5x of current sales in next 3-5yrs.
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There is no bigger mistake If you identify or see a potential 10x stock & you don't make life changing money on it. Congratulations to everyone who hold
#IEX
. very close to 1350 - my 10x target. Cheers.
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A time comes in one's career & life where one realizes peace of mind matters over $. Slowly getting there.
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The recording of my presentation given to highly respected Tamilandu Investors Association on the topic of Understanding SaaS business models and opportunities is now available on their YouTube channel.
This saves us the need to conduct a webinar again
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Too easy to call IT will be worst performing sector for 2022-23. You can't compare 10Y median valuation & call it overvalued. The business, spend, demand, maturity, and ability of IT to impact direct profitablity has changed 360d. Yet, we keep referring to old metrics.
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This is so cheap stunt to showoff. Some age old principles we should never forget - charity karo toh ek haath ka dusre haath ko pata na chale. Do good for the sake of it, from the heart. To show off such doesn't mean a thing.
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I lost a fortune in 2008.
It doesn't seem that big an amount today as it did then but everyone around me was saying we aren't going to stand again from this. Things were so so depressed that I went out of markets for 3yrs to get my head around. Todays tough time too shall pass.💪
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KPIT is the next Tata Elxsi 😂. 10000+ ke targets de rahe Whatsapp pe experts bhai log. Irrationality aur euphoria ki koi seema nai hoti. Sab ka barabar....
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Take time to understand fewer business, go deep, bet hard when convinced on scale + management. Fewer, but meaningful allocation is only key to make large sums of monies. Diversification is just a noble name given to lack of conviction/study. It is useless in a long run.
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The German recession I see on social media is not what I see on the ground. Go to H&M, Mango, Dior, people line up as if it is a dmart. The avg. ticket size in affordable retailers like Primark goes easily to €200. Kaha hai recession?
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#LTTS
winning $100mn+ deal in EACV space is the highlight of this result. Pretty stable performance. Rock solid pipeline. A $100mn+ deal is just super. Need to see the composition of this.
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Don't be afraid of the job that makes you work more. Rather, be afraid of the one which makes you comfortable.
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#LTTS
stunning numbers. Amazing deal wins. Margin expansion. Plan eng leading the way. Captial goods & manufacturing sector spend is reflecting clearly. Awaiting concall.
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Very good nos by LTI. All verticals growing superbly. Margin pressure is talk of the town. Management always guided for growth of 15% which is what co is delivering. Technically, 5329 is major support on W, break of that would open 4483. That'd be nearly 40% drawdown from top.
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#ELXSI
is a lesson to those who are riding it w/o allocation. Nobody knows which stock will be catch a fancy & when. But those who followed the sector, stayed in w/ conviction should have done so w/ right allocation. It was the life-changing opportunity. Hope many of you did it.
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Listening to
#LTTS
' SWC acquisition concall I am just flabbergasted how can they justify 800cr outflow for a business that has 400 DSO!! No matter how much management justifies, this is a terrible, terrible acquisition that's shoved down the throat forcefully. Makes me reconsider
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Sandhar Technologies transitioned from siloed on-prem to a cloud, streamlining entire portfolio. covered 40 locations. Cloud SCM helped cut op expenses by 20% & network costs by 50%. Co aims at improving system efficiency by over 30%. Amazing what tech does for even small co
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#Anantraj
presentation is a treat to read. Top class DC infra, Schneider racks, N+N redundancy (Tier 3 is typically N+1), Novec, Mitshu, Comscope and so on. This can easily be Tier 4 eventually. Best part is, they aren't looking to sell but lease! I think
#TechnoElectric
also…
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Good numbers from
#E2ENetworks
(one of the rare and affordable Cloud computing service providers for AI/ML)
YOY
Revenue up 31%
PBT up 144% (depreciation impact)
PAT up 110%
QOQ
Revenue up 11%
PBT up 2%
PAT down 17% (last quarter tax was lower)
H100 Nvidia chips came online…
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Too many people judging RJ for his health & giving gyaan on retiring at peak & all health is wealth. The person has all right to live his life the way he sees fit. A normal person would have fallen apart. It is his passion that's driving him in all this pain. May he get well soon
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All sectors go through cycles of highs & lows. Doesn't mean one suddenly start de-rating it. Software was eating world in Jan 2022, and still is. Pharma went through so much pain but never once i did name calling on those who pumped it. Some people see problems everywhere.
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The large cap IT cos are struggling on multiple fronts right now.
* The large cost take out deals are margin dilutive to begin w/
* The return to office narrative isn't panning out well w/ employees
* Attrition is strongly back again due to poor working conditions, no hikes,…
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Now you find the sector was insanely overvalued, now? And you suddenly wake up to find the sector is nothing but mediocre. Reading how fast views change I was better off the twitter. I know for sure is non-IT guys definitely know how useless this sector is. Enough, done here. 🙏
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This seems to be going on the lines of LTTS. LTTS too lost one of the biggest clients post listing and it took them years to recoup.
#TataTechnologies
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Offtopic: Sons special! Daughters are even more special. But there is something only a son helps you understand - your own father. For he is the one who helps you reflect back on to your life & relive it through your father's lens. HBD to my little one. 🥰🥰
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10% more from here & this will be 10x. Unbelievable journey. Experience of the last 2 cycles finally culminating into meaningful gains.
#chennaipetro
Almost every 6 year, Chennai Petro falls to 80 odd level, rises to 460-480 and falls again to touch same level. It happened in 2009, happened in 2015, 2020 it just reversed from 80 and result also to assist!! Can we see cycle playing out again?
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I just can't fathom when young guys talk about compounding but not capital expansion. They use all these WB quotes but there is no guarantee you or I are going to live that long, that well off as he did. His insurance business was driving the capital but for most of us it is...
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#SchneiderElectric
's EV associated capabilities are just exceptional. Anyone who's following EV charging, battery, manufacturing space in this context should spend a good time reading this 73-page detailed capabilities report.
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Just under 8 months, TCS & Microsoft complete cloud transition for Woolworths. 20 SAP applications, 75 terabytes of data, 135 database servers, and 435 application servers migrated w/ just 17hr of downtime. Data generation cut by half. Phenomenal.
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Oh no but all brokers downgraded at the same time. Thank god I don't watch TV
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Twitter gurus - IT will correct, IT topped, trendline & MA setup is bearish.
Reality - You have to be on the front hands down to really know the intensity of the demand. IT isn't stopping for next 2y at least. Don't sell your holdings looking at chart
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#TCS
result shows immaculate execution. Surprisingly, UK grew by 6.2% QoQ, 10% YoY. As expected, US / EU had a de-growth of ~2% each.
India/LATAM/MEA turned this result around for TCS. With India growing 20% QoQ, 37.9% YoY, LATAM growing 12.4% & MEA 14.5%.
For sectors, since a…
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Takeaways from management meet with
#AllETech
1. Most imp Q for a co of small scale is to find out how do they retain key talent. The co says that the key people are w/ co for more than 15yrs. At least 60-70 people of total 350 are w/ co for 5-8yrs, Active esop in place. 55…
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Who's recruiting who in Europe:
TCS: AI, Data Science for Retail
Infy: Digital Twins, Digital Factories, ER&D for Auto/mfg
LTI: Blockchain for Payments & Domain experts for Solar & Wind Energy.
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A lot of you requested me to post a thread on
#LTTS
. I did not find time, neither had motivation to do since it is a complex business to cover via something like Twitter thread or even a newsletter. Here I am posting only some abridged views.
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@bharatbetpf
My father walks 10km, he's 70 & tells me the basic mistake you'd do while walking is carrying distractions - podcasts, calls etc. Walk w/o anything, it is an introspective activity. Just another perspective bhai.
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All IT stocks bouncing extremely strong. Ignore the pessimistic views from handles who look at half baked stuff. Mindtree, LTI, ELXSI, Birlasoft, all performing fantastic. Over valuation ke chakkar me demand underestimation ho raha
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13x today!
#chennaipetro
Almost every 6 year, Chennai Petro falls to 80 odd level, rises to 460-480 and falls again to touch same level. It happened in 2009, happened in 2015, 2020 it just reversed from 80 and result also to assist!! Can we see cycle playing out again?
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The arrogance one PMS manger was wearing in public, calling retailers dumb & fool openly on a podcast, all that arrogance is worth 1.66%. If you know what I mean.
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Only two companies offer Grid Automation, healing, integration services & over the top subscription software too. The opportunity scale for them is tremendous! Both recently completed the early transformation phase.
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Entire IT pack has made a strong comeback. People write obituaries too early these days. Mark it - IT won't take a backseat for too long.
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% Down since Super Cycle narrative became commonplace.
VEDL 36%
SAIL 47%
HindCopper 54%
TataSteel 29%
Lekin badnaam sirf IT hi hota hai..
Every commodity cycle those who are playing it the 1st time get slaughtered. This time will be no different for supercycle narratives.
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Many kept questioning the thesis when
#newgen
was dead in 2022. And now it keeps on delivering. What explosive growth in EMEA region. The initial position is almost 7x today, blended, position including top up at 599 before bonus, is 4.5x. 🔥
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That calmness after shots shows why she's able to hit with perfection. Those last 2 hits are just unbelievable. Take a bow 🙇 What an inspiration.
Sheetal Devi makes India proud yet again; Wins 2 Gold and 1 Silver medals at the ongoing Asian Para Archery Championship in Thailand. Congratulations Champ 🫡🇮🇳
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The person who's going to emerge strong & benefit most is who is able keep calm, strike balance in broader market view. There is so much value in midcap IT space. No matter what attrition rates analysts talk about, 45% drop is unjustified. IT is in drag, not fall. Know this!
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Phenomenal! Retail is game of consistency, grit, and fine checks & balances. Nearly 100% growth in revenue YoY. In the race of monitoring QoQ numbers such updates are underrated.
#dmart
.
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Back in 2006, we heard management say - we want to achieve $1bn rev.
In 2021 - co now aims at achieving $1bn run rate from cloud business alone.
If demand trend continues, I won't be surprised if they report a quarterly $1bn run rate by Q3-Q4FY25. That's LTI for you!
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Learning to avg. up your winners is the most valuable skill. Work meticulously to leave the price anchoring behind. See how can you put your incremental capital to best use. Most of the times it is existing winners in your PF that delivers you best efficiency.
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A lot of tier 3 IT cos are eyeing for a $1bn run-rate in next 2-3yrs. Some are very close, some still very far. Some managements are clearly outlining strategy that'll push them toward that goal. If we get good managements w/ good strategy, there is a genuine alpha to be made.
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Bonus, QIP, Buybacks in less than 3yrs of listing is always a big reason to say no. I can't fathom why cos do such things so early in their listing history. Great business perhaps but..
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Over 10x today & this time with allocation. 80 > 826 in 3yrs!
#chennaipetro
10% more from here & this will be 10x. Unbelievable journey. Experience of the last 2 cycles finally culminating into meaningful gains.
#chennaipetro
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@BaluGorade
Saving nearly 70% for the last 17yrs. Never bought a house since I wanted to be flexible on work + wanted to invest all + freedom to try different things. Still no house, meticulously avoided debt. FI already.
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Special focus will be on enabling high-power distribution, liquid-cooling systems, and controls designed to ensure simple commissioning and reliable operations for the extreme-density cluster.
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One thing is clearly I have seen from speaking with clients & tapping industry network is - tech spend is here to stay. Take however you'd like to but I am sharing precisely what I see. Tech spend composition changes not the net.
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Saw someone tweeting that the next trigger for the IT cycle upside is heavy firing. If costs are reduced overnight then it can be a trigger. I think we, investors, sometimes go overboard w/o understanding the broader impact of such wishful thinking. Such tweets are selfish at the…
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3 things I'd advice younger generation to thrive in career:
1. Be flexible to move. Great opportunities come to those who are agile to receive them
2. Be prepared to grind every 4-5y to upgrade & learn to manage stress
3. Focus on communication & be uncompromisingly professional
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It's never about only infra, but what you've built around that infra. Very promising earnings presentation by
#e2enetworks
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I was looking at
#ZomatoIPO
& traditional investor in me said - a company has to make profit, that's bare minimum ask. But after giving a deeper thought, recalling the discussions I have had with startup founders, here are my revised thoughts on the IPO
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