mhonkasalo
@mhonkasalo
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Investment Partner @equilibrium_co (prev. @paraficapital , @TheBlock__ , @AccessProtocol ).
Onchain
Joined May 2010
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2019: Su Zhu FUDs FTX, turns into rivalry with SBF.
2022:
→ SBF uses Alameda to destroy Luna to destroy 3AC.
→ Alameda gets caught in the liquidations.
→ SBF has to bail out Alameda.
→ Alameda hole brings down FTX.
SBF destroyed himself in revenge against Su.
Poetry.
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If Grayscale liquidates what comes on the market:
- 635k BTC (~$13.3b).
- 3.1m ETH (~$3.7b).
A god-forsaken product that will send us to the stone age.
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The level to which SBF took an L is mind-boggling.
Dude could have literally done nothing & let FTX print money in perpetuity. Hung out with supermodels, donated malaria bednets to his heart's content, etc.
Instead, he became one of the most useless people in human history.
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Scott Minerd BTC price calls:
- $600k at $60k → went to $30k.
- $10k at $30k → price to $65k.
- $8k at $30k (again) → TBD.
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Scary how close SBF was to getting away with all of it.
- CPI pump to $2k ETH.
- Stablecoin to plug $10b hole.
- Prohibitive DeFi regulation to ban competition.
The fraud wouldn't have been uncovered. Don't want to imagine that future.
Thank the heavens (but mostly CZ).
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TVL by chain. Jan 1st, 2022:
- Solana $6.68b
- Polygon $5.10b
- Arbitrum $1.69b
- Optimism $354m
TVL today:
- Polygon $1.11b
- Arbitrum $945m
- Optimism $551m
- Solana $286m
(h/t:
@DefiLlama
)
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When SBF said he was vegan, I assumed he meant plant fed & not fed plant.
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This address is swapping 1,000 ETH to USDT to UST every few minutes. ~30,000 swapped.
Plus a 20,000 ETH transfer to Binance.
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$562m in long liquidations yesterday — almost as high as the peak day during the 3AC liquidations in June.
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Congrats to everyone who bought $ETH at $880 on Perpetual Protocol today.
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Past 24 hours:
- $META -24.6%
- $AMZN -18.1%
When 3AC collapsed in & flushed the entire crypto industry down the toilet, the worst day for $BTC was -15.8%
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A few hours ago started hearing that the Luna fundraise had fallen apart.
Difficult to imagine any firm would put their reputation on the line back this dumpster fire.
It's over.
(deleted original tweet about this to not jump the gun, but now it seems clear)
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Optimism & Arbitrum now at 24% of Ethereum txs — with share increasing.
Safe bet >50% by EoY.
If really successful (+zkSync & Starknet are added), easy to imagine quickly becoming >90% as well.
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It is now 45 days since this tweet:
- Net worth from $16bn to $0.
- From darling of the media & hanging out with supermodels to a life sentence in prison.
This has to be the biggest L in human history.
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"Charlie Munger was an idiot for not understanding Bitcoin".
- Shibatrader69, a 29-year old living with their mother, who religiously follows TraderXO insights, recently liquidated for their last $47 shorting $Bonk due to an inverse H&S chart pattern not playing out.
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Stablecoin market share mid-2020:
USDT 77%
USDC 10%
BUSD 3%
DAI 1%
Market share today:
USDT 30%
USDC 39%
BUSD 22%
DAI 5%
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Pretty tasteless that no one knows what LFG has done with the billions in BTC collateral.
Assumed they had sold, but a bunch of rumors they still hold most of it.
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LFG sold ~80k $BTC in just over 3 days.
Actually impressed how well the market managed to absorb that.
1/ As of Saturday, May 7, 2022, the Luna Foundation Guard held a reserve consisting of the following assets:
· 80,394 $BTC
· 39,914 $BNB
· 26,281,671 $USDT
· 23,555,590 $USDC
· 1,973,554 $AVAX
· 697,344 $UST
· 1,691,261 $LUNA
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Coinbase trade volumes:
Retail:
Q4 2021 $177b
Q1 2024 $56b
31.6% of ATHs
Institutional:
Q4 2021 $371b
Q1 2024 $256b
69.0% of ATH
More indication that retail has not returned yet.
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BTC is now officially at an all-time high in EUR terms.
The apparent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value is likely to be an artificially induced last gasp before the crypto-asset embarks on a road to irrelevance.
#TheECBblog
looks at where bitcoin stands amid widespread volatility in the crypto markets.
Read more
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Imagine observing the crypto market for the past year only to conclude the problem was Kraken and Paxos.
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- $400m+ (incl. 70k ETH) sold on-chain to support UST peg.
- Likely similar amounts to bid on FTX & Binance.
- $750m in BTC "loan" sold (or soon so).
Result: Peg not restored, UST price dropping, & Curve UST-3pool needs another $175m to balance out.
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Beginning to think SBF will face no consequences for running a $10b Ponzi:
- Media coverage is positive.
- Politicians are investigating CZ.
- DeFi regulation still moving forward.
- Bahamas taking this into their own hands.
- VCs will likely fund his next venture.
No one cares.
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Switched back from Airbnb to hotels fully in the past year.
Hotels more convenient & enjoyable.
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SBF can't remember a single tx in the history of running FTX & might soon pretend to have never heard of Alameda.
Yet somehow, he becomes the Rain Man when it comes to the minutia of the Binance deal from a year ago.
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Almost everyone seems to think they would have bought Amazon after -94% drawdown & Internet stocks was a no-brainer post bubble.
This is delusional.
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On-chain transparency is the biggest winner during the UST/Celsius/3AC meltdowns.
The parts we understand best are because of the blockchain data & it gives incredibly valuable information to the market.
TradFi will never have this.
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Ronin exploit takes:
- Smartest guy in the room lost money. Shorted on-chain info & price climbed 20%. No one watched the chain.
- Trustless bridges are light clients as smart contracts or checkpointing enough data. Nothing else.
- Good luck laundering $600m in ETH.
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All-time high
@LooksRareNFT
royalty volume vs. OpenSea today at 24%.
Also, on pace for the first >$30m total volume day.
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SBF never cared about saving the world.
In his words: "dumb game we woke westerners play where we say all the right shiboleths".
Stop attributing any positive intent to this habitual liar & criminal.
When Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire went down in flames, so did his plans to save the world
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I hope each of you is as blessed as the Aave vault owner who didn't get liquidated only because Chainlink oracles update every hour or on a 0.5% move.
Now they are up ~$40 million from that moment.
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90% of progress in DeFi was made before DeFi summer in 2020.
The last 2 years have mostly been jerking off to obscure token designs & obv flawed concepts pretending to be innovation.
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.
@LooksRareNFT
user growth vs. OpenSea is starting to look increasingly positive.
Previously, catching up on volume (~20% of OS) but now at 7.5% of users as well.
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3AC borrowing from friends (this ain't the only story out there) at a point where payback was already unrealistic seems particularly pernicious.
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New blog post: preparing for a long bear market & identifying the next growth opportunities.
- Only innovation sustains any of this & token incentives are the "trigger" for bull markets.
- Market segments I'm following at the moment.
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New blog post: stETH<>ETH peg (not a peg) presents a dilemma & opportunity for ETH bulls.
- stETH<>ETH relationship (& why it’s not a peg).
- The latest on-chain events.
- Who gets screwed on a "de-peg".
- Forecasting when the buyers step in.
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Quick recap of the on-chain events & $UST price action over the past 2 days.
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OK, folks, this getting impressive
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What's left of Solana DeFi is $2 away from being liquidated.
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Trade volume in September 2020:
-
@UniswapProtocol
$15.4 billion.
-
@coinbase
$13.6 billion.
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"I told you so."
- Man who wrote 1000 threads on how Binance is insolvent, the entire industry would nuke, CZ would be charged for crimes against humanity, & we'd be in for Nuremberg 2.0.
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Events on Binance over the past few minutes:
- $20m added to defend UST on Binance.
- Minutes later it was $16m.
- Someone just got a sell $5m fill.
Not much defense left.
(h/t:
@lawmaster
)
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The killer use case for crypto is staying up late at night following financial crime (& overall the wildest shit you can imagine) in real-time with other people on Twitter.
Ladies & gentlemen, this is a spectator sport.
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Reminders:
1. Madoff was in cuffs the next day when his sons turned him in.
2. SBF stole customer deposits from his exchange to commit various financial crimes.
3. Losses from SBF's fraud will exceed total losses in the Madoff case (<$4bn today).
4.
@nytimes
is a clown show.
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Most don't realize blue-chip DeFi has something close to 1,000x growth potential & much better risk/return profile vs. chasing the next small cap pump.
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The Warriors' game plan against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans was rather straightforward
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FTX (or someone else, at this point who knows) just transferred 196m of $FTT (~$384m) to a new address.
Curious, given the circulating supply of $FTT is supposedly 133m.
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A single (pointless) token mint has burned ~6% of all net ETH issued post-merge in the past few hours.
Showcasing that any sustained activity coming back would immediately lead to ETH supply quickly becoming deflationary.
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Web3 Spotify:
- USDC real-time streaming subscription.
- Stake token to artists for payment weighting (app can auto-calculate on listens).
- Invest in songs/artists for future revenue stream (e.g. 20/80 split).
Financialize Spotify — users can get upside, remove middlemen.
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Tornado Cash putting in new highs for 2022 in terms of usage on the back of the sanctions.
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Too busy to tweet. But not to vent. I've been using Venmo for years, but now it won't allow me to make payments. I spent a long time in chat with representatives, and they told me that they can't explain why — or fix it. The software has taken control.
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L2s are an ATH of 6.81% of Ethereum's entire gas spend this month.
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This Twitter account got 6 figures out of FTX.
112 followers.
Followed by SBF.
(tweeted an address back in 2021 that received funds)
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- Aave is still the biggest lending market.
- MakerDAO still has the largest stablecoin.
- Uniswap is as dominant as ever in exchange.
- Lido is running away w/ staking derivatives.
Many winners have been here the longest & continue to dominate the growth metrics.
Which crypto-projects do you think will come out stronger after the bear has settled a little bit?
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Only in crypto you can get rich by betting on a few things (e.g. Luna & Axie) & being completely wrong on all of them.
Should prove most early investors here are just lucky & not smarter than everyone else.
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Whichever way you measure it,
@LooksRareNFT
growth is starting to look pretty undeniable.
13% of OpenSea on >0% royalty volume today, 8% using
@hildobby_
's real volume filter.
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In among the least surprising events in human history, $USDD is losing its peg & trading at ~$0.93.
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1. Create
@solana
wallets behind 2FA.
2. Abstract tx fees from users (trivially easy).
3. Turn on payments between users.
Congrats, X is now the fastest global payments platform — without users knowing it runs on a scary blockchain.
Path is there after
@Visa
announcement.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 X (Twitter) receives money transmitter license for payment services in Mississippi.
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Uniswap market share has increased to 80% (& 67% of 1inch) among Ethereum DEXs.
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At just 4x Ethereum txs, BSC is struggling to keep up.
BSC offers a trivial tx througput addition vs. what will be required from blockchains (10,000x+) & tradeoff is large.
This is why Rollups. Linear thinking doesn't even move the needle on scaling, exponential solutions do.
No,
#PancakeSwap
isn't slow, BSC is just overloaded right now.
We also have an ATH number of people using the site.
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Curve UST-3pool is still being drained. Nearing levels yesterday where the ETH sells started.
Close to needing another fill-up.
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Price from ATH:
$SNAP -88.5%
$META -72.1%
$BTC -69.2%
$ETH -67.6%
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Coinbase ranking in the App Store is still basically flat. Retail hasn't shown up at all.
In case anyone was wondering this isn’t retail on the $BTC bid…
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Interesting way to visualize Ethereum vs. Bitcoin historical usage trend — market share of combined transaction fees.
30-day moving average for Ethereum now at 96.8%.
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Top 93 markets on Uniswap account for 90%+ of trade volume.
Even narrowing to these markets, the volume Uniswap volume was higher than on Coinbase.
I'm seeing lots of tweets celebrating Uniswap volume passing Coinbase volume. So an exchange with over 13,000 markets just barely passed volume of an exchange with 93 markets? Incredible. Wow.
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Crypto Reddit + all mediocre influencers on this app are now tracking the GBTC flows.
Conclusion: this isn't a relevant driver of price action anymore (& can only surprise to the upside).
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For every L2 that launches, it's difficult not to become more convinced of the Solana roadmap.
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USDT now trading at 2% discount on the most liquid market (Binance BUSD/USDT orderbook).
We are going to fully test every Tether theory today.
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FTX has communicated they were hacked before trying to move funds to a cold wallet.
Not much is known but a few employees caught a glimpse of someone suspicious at the office.
Here's a rendering from the eyewitness reports. Please let us know if you have any information:
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What if someone was buying ~$11m worth of ETH & provably losing access to their keys every single day (so it can never be sold)?
I'm honestly a bit surprised the change in flows hasn't started to make a difference in e.g. ETH/BTC ratio.
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Harvard is just a tax exempt hedge fund that grows AUM by selling certificates.
Education ain't got nothing to do with it anymore.
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Solana DEX volume now on par with Ethereum + all L2s (even if including charitable definition)
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Optimism + Arbitrum txs close to flippening Ethereum L1 (for good).
Yesterday, 691k txs on Optimism was an ATH.
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@MattyWTF1
@HaasF1Team
This is such a fucking stupid weekend.
Shouldn't be on the calendar for ethical reasons & because it's dangerous as fuck for drivers.
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Much of the value in crypto has been built with very little or even no funding.
Etherscan, DeFiLlama, DeFi 1.0, etc. still dominate despite huge investments in competition.
There's almost no correlation between progress & level of investment — to a degree that's worth studying.
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"but it's only wash trading" when BAYC volume is on pace to overtake on
@LooksRareNFT
vs.
@opensea
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Quite clear that
@arbitrum
will be the first L2 to surpass the transaction count on Ethereum.
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Price down from ATH:
BTC -65.3%
ETH -64.3%
ETH up 76.5% from the bottom & BTC 26.4%.
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Bitcoin known to be held on corporate balance sheets at the close of each year.
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Last week
@TeamUnibot
put in a new ATH on users & will easily surpass ATH in trade volume this week.
Most of the activity now comes from Solana.
(credit:
@whale_hunter_
)
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Uniswap v3:
- May 5th on mainnet & May 12th on Optimism.
- Main feature is custom liquidity ranges (A+).
CLRs:
- All market-making strategies, from passive LPing to limit order approximation.
- 4,000x+ capital-efficiency w/ (almost) no tradeoffs.
1/x
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You laughed then, but some of us tried to warn you about Bitzlato months ago.
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.
@Reuters
is so lost they are in "not even wrong" territory.
I get that crypto is esoteric but it takes real effort to misunderstand everything this completely.
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Another day of promising numbers from
@LooksRareNFT
:
- Royalty volume on pace for $80m (2.5x previous ATH).
- Users relative to OpenSea at 6.4%. Even with growing volumes, this metric previously lagged.
- Share of
@gemxyz
txs at 18.3% (~80% increase).
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In a way, we are all signing the Giving Pledge today.
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Another ATH in DEX volumes on
@solana
this week.
Passed BSC & Polygon, just behind Arbitrum. ~1/3rd of Ethereum volume.
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DeFi is not just surviving — it's thriving.
March 2020 was a real stress test & protocols were pushed to their limits.
Today, the protocols barely even noticed anything happened while all CeFi CEOs are spending their time on Twitter assuring everything is OK.
Anti-fragile af.
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