New blog post decomposing movements in Core PCE inflation through 2024Q4 using the St Louis Fed DSGE model. Model attributes most of the 2021-22 surge to demand* factors, but supply* has gained importance lately. *see post for disclaimer on language.

"[. ] demand shocks are the main drivers of the inflation surge in the United States, the euro area, and in four small open economies.".

RT @simongerman600: #badgeographyjoke

RT @RicardoVMarto: U.S. manufacturing isn't booming, but it's not dead either. Rise in manufacturing establishments over the past decade he….

RT @vediense: I recently attended the CEBRA Conference at the Boston Fed and HBS. I presented new work with @mfariacastro and @pascalpaul a….

GDP is a flawed measure of economic welfare. That's why I use this alternative index which turns out to have a 99.8% correlation with GDP.

RT @DannyDeraney: In honor of Gary Larson's birthday, here is my favorite Far Side Comic. Show me some of your favorites!!! https://t.co/….

Sounds like everybody knows about this:.

Update: sent over receipts, told review wouldn't be removed. Today I receive the same initial email: hotel argues review is defamation, to be removed unless I appeal. Obv I have better things to do with my time, so I'll just treat reviews in Germany as useless signals from now on.

Falei ao @expresso sobre a ascensão das stablecoins e a recente legislação promulgada nos EUA.

RT @ArmandDoma: “the train will be too noisy for my dead father” is probably the funniest NIMBY argument I’ve ever heard .

I guess that all my haters had a point

RT @luckyitslizz: Wisconsin isn't real

RT @kozjuli: 🚀 The future of macro is here!🚀.Excited to host the 2025 Dissertation Fellows at @stlouisfed and dive into your brilliant work….

of course there is some of this in (northern/central) Europe, but it tends to be focused on prestige sectors such as secondary education (Eton, Louis-le-Grand, etc); not mundane infrastructural institutions such as plumbers, car dealerships or daycares.

One paradox of living in the US as a European: for such a "new" country, many of its "modern" institutions are surprisingly old. My wife bought a car from a dealership that's been around for 120 years; our kids go to a daycare that turns 140 this year.

RT @dandolfa: Two former St. Louis Fed execs now on the short list. Budweiser wasn’t the only thing brewing in the Gateway City!.

RT @AssLatam: President Gustavo Petro of Colombia referred to Jeremy Corbin's party as "Su Fiesta" (as in "Your Celebration" instead of "Yo….

RT @tradewartracker: here we are on #tariff day

RT @vintagemapstore: Lutetia (present-day Paris) 50 BC drawn by by Albert Uderzo, France.

Got an email from Google today saying they’re removing my review of one of the worst hotels I’ve stayed in because it supposedly constitutes defamation under German law. Posting a screenshot here in case anyone is considering booking the Dormero Hotel in Halle, Saxony-Anhalt