Saket Mehrotra
@mehrotra_saket
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Following
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Private Investor in Public Markets. Sensex follower since '09. Perpetually curious & connoisseur of great coffee and music. Tweets on Investing & Biases.
Read my Newsletter ➡️
Joined April 2013
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This week I completed doing a deep dive on 22+ companies from almost various sectors as a part of the weekly webinar series for the Beta to Alpha cohort.
This was also coupled with 10+ premium reads with extensive deep dive on research.
Here's a mega thread 👇 (1/n)
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For almost seven years, I have tracked the hotels space very closely.
While everyone wants to jump on the 'unlock trade' bandwagon, I do not feel it's a great idea because the business model in itself is a little flawed.
Here's a thread 👇 (1/n)
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For almost two months I have been doing a deep dive on the Music Streaming space.
Time for a thread to understand what's really going on here 👇 (1/n)
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Everyone knows about HUL, P&G, Marico, Britannia, ITC - you name it.
Have you ever heard of Paras Pharmaceuticals?
And more importantly - Darshan Bhai Patel.
Here's a thread on the unsung and unknown hero of the Indian FMCG world ⬇️
A Thread (1/n)
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The best part of the CLSA Sell report on Bajaj Finance. Loved it.
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Are you someone who's starting out to invest?
Are you someone who has probably been investing but at some point realized what is the point of doing it?
Let's try and break things down.
This is a thread on Savings, Inflation, Risk, Return, Equity and everything in between 👇
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Glad to see people with 0 exposure to equities have end-to-end opinion on PayTM's business model. What people are missing is how
@vijayshekhar
is probably the only guy in India who's got Berkshire to invest in his company albeit, other achievements.
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Divis was expensive at 1700 and will be expensive at 5100
Info Edge was expensive at 2000 and will be expensive at 6100
Between these biases, both the stocks are up 3x!
Get over this age-old legacy anchoring bias of buying 'cheap' stocks because 'mehenga share kitna badega?'
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My mom had a GHS scheme running with Tanishq and had not redeemed it when it was due. Got a cheque of the entire amount paid till date yesterday.
What a company! Take a bow :)
@TanishqJewelry
@TataCompanies
Had it been any other company, this would have never come back.
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Tested Positive for Covid yesterday.
I am fully vaccinated, did not have any symptoms except for a slight throat irritation.
Don't let your guard down! Continue to practice social distancing, wear a mask and keep sanitising.
It's not over until it's over.
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Today I complete 6 months of owning an EV in India 🇮🇳
If you have been on the fence about whether you should buy it or not, the answer is very simple (Do It)
In fact, the Income Tax Act incentive on buying it expires on 31st March, 2023
A Thread breaking down hits & misses ⤵️
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People who are obsessing about IRCTC have probably never tried resetting a password on their portal.
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I am doing a little experiment to understand the young India, please participate and answer the following question:
If you were given Rs. 50,000 today, where would you invest it?
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Why hasn't sattu evolved as an alternative to whey protein in India?
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My biggest fan, the most bullish investor I will possibly know in my life and the strongest pillar of support for my mother and I - my beloved father, Mr. Sanjay Kumar Mehrotra passed away yesterday at 10:15PM.
He was diagnosed with Kidney failure three years ago (1/3)
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Just started reading the Tips FY21 Annual Report. Here are a few interesting anecdotes ⬇️
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Personal Finance is broken.
In fact, if I look back and reflect, I have made multiple mistakes around money.
Last week I had put a tweet asking people where would they invest 50k.
Summarising some of my initial mistakes you can easily avoid 🧵
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This does not get said enough in India but it needs to be said time and time and time again.
@DasShaktikanta
has by far guarded our banking system like the Himalayas. With multiple innovations, we have also thrived internally.
Thank you,
@RBI
🫡
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⚠️ Scam 2022 - How I saved myself from paying fraudsters 🤯
A thread that can save you & your hard - earned money 💰
2 weeks back, I get a call from a tele - caller impersonating as an HDFC Life agent.
Read on 👇
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While one may see three hours of content,
@ishmohit1
@itsTarH
@sahil_vi
and I have probably spent countless hours in developing this framework.
Even I am binge watching this video now!
This was great fun thanks to
@soicfinance
🚀
Q3FY22 Analysis with
@sahil_vi
@itsTarH
@mehrotra_saket
!
We have taken a Pros and cons approach to all the companies. With one guy covering the result and rest of us asking toughest questions about both the thesis and anti thesis 👍👿
To watch:
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Liked reading this thread?
Smash that Retweet button below to make more people read this too ⬇️
Everyone knows about HUL, P&G, Marico, Britannia, ITC - you name it.
Have you ever heard of Paras Pharmaceuticals?
And more importantly - Darshan Bhai Patel.
Here's a thread on the unsung and unknown hero of the Indian FMCG world ⬇️
A Thread (1/n)
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If you bought Reliance Retail shares in the unlisted market at 2500-3000, then the problem is not with Reliance, it is with YOU.
Allow me to explain this.
Reliance has a consolidated market cap of ~USD 200 bn and consists of 4 distinct businesses
1 - The Oil to Chemical
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Any fund manager who tells you they are sitting on cash and are deploying slowly in this fall are either lying or are exceptionally astute in timing the markets.
And no, I am not here to bash or point fingers at anyone, but allow me to explain (1/n)
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Elon Musk is worth USD 150 bn and has taken a 1% Net Worth position in Bitcoin.
Asset allocation is key.
Yes, I also read Tesla will accept payments in
#Bitcoin
Before you jump and go all in, remember two things.
Asset allocation and risk management is key.
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For folks who were not able to attend it, here's the YouTube link.
We engage in an hour long conversation with Saurabh Mukherjea and Anupam Gupta and discuss extensively on First Principles Thinking to Investing.
@PenguinIndia
@b50
@dmuthuk
@FinMedium
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Hey
@soicfinance
tribe members. Which bank has 3% ROA, is 5 times levered and makes ROE of 15%?
I heard they lend very well only to smart people :)
@ishmohit1
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- Sold all crypto investments: Check
- Car fuel tank is moderately full: Check
- Have sufficient cash on hand: Check
- Groceries ordered: Check
What did I miss? What did I miss? 😅
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पैसे पेड़ पर नहीं उगते!
'Money does not grow on trees!'
But what if, it did? - asked a friend who recently completed watching Farzi
What if we could print more money, buy things we wanted to and well, live on.
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Deal Values
Passport Seva Kendra - implemented by TCS ~USD 1bn
Aadhar - implemented by HCL Tech ~USD 300 mn
As we see the potential rollout of ONDC in Aug '22, there is going to be massive tech-led transformations in other spheres as we move ahead.
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I always keep thinking what is the big obsession with owning Real Estate.
And no, it has got nothing to do with the fact that Indians are 'sentimental' with 'owning' their house.
It is probably the same in Korea, UK or even US.
So what gives? 👇
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If you wish to be a part of the 'Beta to Alpha' cohort and engage in weekly deep dives, feel free to upgrade to the premium plan.
We had done a deep dive on the streaming space with Saregama as a case study two months back.
Here's the link ⬇️
(20/n)
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The biggest investment any CEO makes is Capital Allocation.
I just started reading 'The Outsiders', a book that was recommended very strongly by one of my idols, and what a great way to start the book is the intricate topic of Capital Allocation.
Read on 👇 (1/n)
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Have you folks ever used the e-NIR portal?
I feel it is a massive game changer.
All your insurance policies put in one place. Yes, some of that has to be manually added.
You can add a nominee and their bank account details.
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"The CDMO vertical will continue to positively surprise us and all of you."
#lauruslabs
concall 💊
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If you come across someone who tells you - "21 din me paise double kar dunga."
Run.
Take your money and Run.
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Any leads for a neurosurgeon in Calcutta who can speak on the phone? It's for a personal medical emergency for my father. Thanks in Advance.
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Since a lot of you have written to me to enable the webinar access and do not wish to commit on the current monthly or annual plan, here's a 7-day access to all my 15 webinars done till date over the last 4 months.
Valid only for today till midnight.
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In a bull market Yes Bank feels like the next HDFC Bank. In a bear market HDFC Bank feels like the next Yes Bank.
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Matlab protest, hyperinflation, political shock all of that can be in one place.
Pizza to zaroori hai :)
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What is Grey Market Premium?
A fancy word used by brokers to screw you.
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And, finally it is out 🔥
The first lesson is FREE 🤯
Let me know what you think? 😎
Get a 10% off using my referral link to sign-up on LearnApp ⬇️
🥁 New Course Live: Build a Long India Portfolio with
@mehrotra_saket
Learn to build a
#portfolio
that has consistently beaten market benchmark & go long on India.
Are you ready to invest in India's
#growth
story? 🚀
Watch first lesson for free 👇
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As a first time trader, you will often be lured in doing F&O based on someone you know who makes money consistently.
Word of advice and caution - Try mastering doing cash trades with half of the lot size and be in the green for a year and then even 'think' of doing F&O.
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Dear Mr.
@udaykotak
- looking at this response, I extracted the IPO list of 287 companies from
@moneycontrolcom
that went public in India in the last 11 years. I do understand that going public in India is a complex process and there are multiple stakeholders involved. (1/7)
Mr. Shah please get your facts right. Kotak did not lead manage Paytm. Kotak did lead manage Zomato at issue price 76( current market price 150), Nykaa at issue price 1125(current market price 2100).
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While everyone knows about Peter Lynch & Magellan fund, in India there has been someone who has achieved a similar feat w.r.t. providing outsized consistent returns for 20+ years in his erstwhile stint.
I am proud and humbled that
@SunilBSinghania
follows me on Twitter 🙏
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#012
- Banking & IDFC First
What we Liked:
- V. Vaidyanathan + his skin in the game
- Focus on delivering on CASA ahead of timelines promised
- Asset side being made granular and diversified
- Understood the nuances of the Banking business - CASA, NIM, NPA etc.
(11/n)
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For quite some time, people have been waiting for a crash to happen.
Whether it is the Zomato IPO or the valuations of Info Edge, everyone thinks it is overvalued.
And finally - What happens to the markets now?
A thread ⬇️ (1/n)
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In 2019, HUL made a presentation on the fact that all D2C brands (Most of them VC funded) have a business model which is C.R.A.P. - Can't Realize Any Profit.
2021, here's something I get from their Investor Presentation.
Evolving with time, are we?
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How do you make sense of the 'real option value' in a business?
Does ITC Limited have 'real option value'?
Let's try and answer a few questions from a fresh perspective.
@dmuthuk
@finbloggers
@FinMedium
@poddarajeev2000
@StocktwitsIndia
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Fascinated by the length and breadth of the topics
@warikoo
has been covering in his videos. I had to explain Rent vs. Buy decision to my mom, I shared his video with her. Post that, we were able to have a better conversation.
Thank you, Ankur! You inspire us.
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App Idea - A tracker that reminds you to cancel all your trials across PayPal, Credit Cards and UPI
Also reminds you of all the subscriptions and EMIs that are running
Or I could just hope and request
@kunalb11
sir to do a great integration in
@CRED_club
with this.
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#001
- Solara Active Pharma Sciences & API
What we liked:
- Structural shift in manufacturing from China to India
- Clean and strong promoter track record
- TPG Capital entering early at a heavy premium
Risks:
- Commodity Business
- Regulatory Compliance (2/n)
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Here's some Sunday reading for you.
After receiving a lot of coffees, today it is about giving back.
Surprise Alert - Enlisted a few of my favorite brews in the post too.
#betatoalpha
#coffee
@finbloggers
@FinMedium
@dmuthuk
@Gautam__Baid
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Got introduced to a new concept that investors follow.
'Shradha Investing'
This company will grow at 10%
How? What are the triggers?
A jaega growth - puri Shradha hai :)
The legend
@ishmohit1
giving us insights on how to find the next winner 🚀
@ias_summit
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It is not everyday that you wake up and suddenly see two things happen on the same day.
1. Professor
@Sanjay__Bakshi
following you on Twitter
2. Reaching a small milestone of 10k followers
I learnt more about the Tobacco Industry by reading his blog post than working there.
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Naukri, JeevanSathi, 99 Acres, Shiksha, Zomato, Policy Bazaar, Happily Unmarried and a host of other companies. Is there anything that Info Edge doesn't own?
Info Edge – India’s very own Internet Vision Fund
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Any doctors / ER specialists care to comment, what could have fellow on lookers / members done in such a situation? Would be a great value add to know about this better.
Yet another shocking case of a young man working out in the gym, simply collapsing; this is 24-year-old Vishal working as police constable at
#AsifnagarPS
police station
#Hyderabad
, who is suspected to have suffered a heart attack & could not be revived
@ndtv
@ndtvindia
#GymDeath
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Has any group in the world even come close to re-organizing businesses the way Chandra has been moving cards at the helm of Tata Sons?
- TGB / TCP / Tata Coffee
- Digital Play - 1mg, BigBasket, Curefit
- Steel - Metalliks / Long Products / BSL / ISWP
Feel free to add on.
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#003
- Internet & Info Edge
What we Liked:
- All internet verticals are cash cows with Naukri generating 130% of EBIT
- Impeccable Promoter and management team
- Info Edge Ventures + Temasek: Match made in heaven
Risks:
- Competition
- Next Zomato & Policy Bazaar? (4/n)
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Best bank for opening a current account?
Options I have on the table - Axis, SBI & HDFC Bank (since there is some existing relationship)
Would love to hear views / thoughts :)
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Tata Motors does not have 94% market share - they have created a market where they have let others take 6%
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Great job
@elearnmarkets
@mystockedge
@vivbajaj
and team!
Now I can proudly say that even I'm invested in the company :)
(Being a Kotak shareholder, no Reco)
But using StockEdge - Definitely a big Reco.
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#022
- Laurus Labs
What we Liked:
- ARV API leader, used for treatment of AIDS
- successful in diversifying from API to FDFs in less than 3 years
- Strong backward and forward linkages
- Recent foray into Biologics
Risks:
- Execution + Regulatory risks
(21/n)
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I have been really trying hard to learn technical anaylsis but nothing comes close to 'chidiya chug gai khet pattern' by
@Abhishekkar_
Once this pattern is activated, we all know where the markets are headed.
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Swiggy and Zomato are not competing in the food tech business. Then what business are they doing?
They are in the data business. (A thread)
Domino's vs Food Tech
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#014
- ITC Limited
What we Liked:
- Cigarette Business - untouchable
- FMCG Investments over - should see ICMLs churn out cash flows
- Increase in Dividend Payout
Risks:
- FMCG business takes higher time to expand margins
- Cigarette volumes
- Corporate Reorg. delay
(13/n)
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#017
- Tata Consumer Products
What we Liked:
- Chandra + Sunil D'Souza: Aggressive approach
- Sampann: Pulses & Spices
- Starbucks India
- Global Business
Risks:
- Competition
- Global Business Execution
(16/n)
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So many documents have come in, I'm so spoilt for choice!
Divis Labs Annual Report
PolicyBazaar DRHP
More DRHPs
What are you reading?
Oh also, just went through Embassy Office Parks REIT Investor Presentation and call. Solid content.
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Super glad to announce that
@TraderHarneet
and I have started a small initiative to share swing trade setups for the week for Indian Equity Markets.
Presenting - Alpha Swing. A weekly newsletter sharing swing trade setups for the week.
More Details Ahead 👇
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as it pains me to write this, he's left a void in our lives which will never be filled. Papa passed away peacefully yesterday and we would be performing his last rites. Counting you to pay homage 🙏
Deeply Mourned by the Mehrotra Family and well wishers
Om Shanti 🕉️🙏
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"We are actively looking at NFTs, Video Games, Short Form Video Apps and aspire to be in the Top 3 music labels in India"
🎵 Tips Concall
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The only catch here is the fact that you only have a 24 hour window to sell a day's inventory.
Taj Mahal Palace in Mumbai only has a 24 hour window on a daily basis to sell 560 room nights.
Once the day gets expired, the inventory is gone. (5/n)
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The whole API space in India has suddenly become the 'talk of the town'. So what makes this space exciting?
Let us try and break it down alongside making a cake with flour and sugar.
Time for a short deep dive👇 (1/n)
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Spotify Inc. made ~USD 9.3 bn last year off 354 mn subscribers.
Take a guess on the paid subscription / ad-generated revenue split.
20:80?
40:60?
50:50?
It was 92:8
199 mn paying subscribers contributed to 92% of Spotify's topline. (8/n)
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Darshan had been instrumental in bringing the following brands to life - Move, Crack, Dermi Cool, Set Wet, Zatak and Livon.
In 2012, RB sold Set Wet, Livon and Zatak to Marico.
(5/n)
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#046
| Diamonds In The Dust - Saurabh Mukherjea, Rakshit Ranjan & Salil Desai <> Beta To Alpha
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Super excited to be a part of this! Looking forward to this intense session 💰
Announcing📢📢📢📢
SOIC Deep Dive Session 6| Bajaj Finance: Is it the Amazon of Lending with
@mehrotra_saket
This will be a 150 minute+ marathon session on Bajaj Finance and the Fintech Landscape🏦🏦🏦
Link for registration🔗:
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If you liked reading this thread, you will love reading my other threads too ⬇️
This week I completed doing a deep dive on 22+ companies from almost various sectors as a part of the weekly webinar series for the Beta to Alpha cohort.
This was also coupled with 10+ premium reads with extensive deep dive on research.
Here's a mega thread 👇 (1/n)
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2K
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Inspired by
@ishmohit1
and
@soicfinance
, doing a small
🪔 giveaway of a signed copy of the book and a special webinar with the authors of 'Diamonds in the Dust' this November with all the members of the Beta to Alpha cohort.
More details here -
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Gaana bottomline: (-327) cr. valued at USD 650 mn
Saregama bottomline: +113 cr. valued at USD 700 mn
Tips bottomline: +43 cr. valued at USD 250 mn
@varinder_bansal
@saketreddy
@Ankush__Agrawal
#Fintrackr
: As per Gaana's FY21 unaudited figures, the company's operating revenue barrel grew by a mere 2.65% to Rs 123 Cr in FY21 from Rs 120 Cr in FY20
Story
@Tyagi0G
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What is pricing power?
How is it relevant in the Pharma Industry?
A thread.
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1. All Indians should have basic understanding of personal finance and investing principles
2. Indians should benefit from wealth creation from stock markets
3. Atleast 100 Indians are able to have something like this outside their house in 10 years. (16/n)
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#008
- Titan Industries
What we Liked:
- Ability to raise CP at 3.3%
- Indians don't love gold, they have a lust for gold
@poddarajeev2000
- Success of diversification has been phenomenal
Risks:
- New businesses might not take off like jewellery did
(9/n)
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The Joys Of Meeting.
Had a very insightful discussion with Mr. Baid.
Looking forward to reading your book :)
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'Aur, kya chal raha hai?' , 'Fogg chal raha hai!'
If you're living in India chances are you've heard this not just in the TV or digital media but someone actually telling this to you in a conversation.
(2/n)
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Fogg went after a cluttered deodorant market dominated by Axe and Engage and disrupted it.
The man behind Fogg is Darshan Patel.
Darshan Patel may not be known to a lot of people.
(3/n)
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Warren Buffet must be having 'hichki' every hour because someone or the other is always quoting him for their investment thesis.
His butler must be like, "Sir paani pi lijiye, theek ho jaega"
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Stock has gone to 200. Is there anything wrong with the stock?
Entire market is in bull rally, why is this stock going down?
Market price is 96, so why promoter sold at 86?
..
Market price is 106, so why promoter sold at 86?
..
Market price is 116, so why promoter sold at 86?
..
Market price is 126, so why promoter sold at 86?
..
Market price is 136, so why promoter sold at 86?
..
..
..
..
..
#SeQuent
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