Earlier this year, the President’s budget proposed a 40% cut to the NIH budget. This sparked an obvious research question: What if the NIH had been 40% smaller in previous years? Here’s what Pierre Azoulay, Danielle Li, Bhaven Sampat, and I found when we looked at grants that

🚨 Hiring scientists to help give away money 🚨 At @open_phil, we have given away $600M in biomedical research since 2016. Now, we're expanding the team to do more. Hiring: * Up to 3 Senior Program Associates * Program Officer in strep A Remote OK, salaries in links! (thread)

Teslas have the lowest maintenance & repair costs of any brand

Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy. Roughly every month—for the next

People w/PhDs are more likely to be inventors. But do PhDs-->innovation or is it all selection? My brilliant student Manfredi Aliberti finds answer is YES using possibly the best setting : Italy in the 1980s. Read his JMP (and interview him!) to know more https://t.co/FMIaBBNDn2

How can we make science funding work for large-scale AI projects? @calebwatney proposes X-Labs: 25 independent research institutions funded at $10–50M/year to support the infrastructure-heavy, team-based work that AI-driven science requires. Current science funding mechanisms

It's voting time for the Econ Sci-Fi Reading Group December meeting! We read "classics" in the winter, and there are some fun options this year. Feel free to join if you are interested in economics and science fiction! https://t.co/hR6G5jGKsa

This is incredibly clever paper, which to me shows the importance of mathematical modeling. He uses some very clever tricks to answer an incredibly important question, and you're simply never going to think of these verbally. I shall, nevertheless, try to explain them. 1/

🚨 NEW ROLE AT @IFP 🚨 We're hiring a Director of Operations to improve and oversee the internal systems that power IFP’s work — from finance and compliance to HR and organizational planning. This role will report to me & @calebwatney and will be the senior-most operations role

Think of these roles as being a Substacker within Anthropic with access to real time data, insider knowledge of what’s happening at the frontier of AI + independence to write about the topics that matter most to you. These roles are for big thinkers and domain experts, not

It looks like New Yorkers just passed all three pro-housing charter amendments on the ballot. The mandate is clear: it's time to build more housing.

This is a cool example of digital public goods facilitated by LLMs. We’ve all long wanted this tool, but it was probably hard to maintain. I assume the LLMs are doing the work on the backend to make it feasible for @aniketapanjwani to build this quickly, update, and distribute

RFK Jr. has proposed directing 20% of the NIH’s budget to replication. That would be orders of magnitude more than we’ve ever allocated to biomedical replication. How much should we actually spend? And how do we ensure the money is well spent? With @IFP, I investigated the ROI

Very cool JMP by @ppcreanza: the Gilded Era merger wave didn't kill innovation, it turbo boosted it. Large scale consolidation in early 20th century enabled large industrial labs, lower cost of capital, and more breakthrough patents https://t.co/Jy2H37Bkme

A new survey from @ngoldschlag & @InnovateEconomy shows that AI anxiety follows the classic third-person effect. People think AI threatens other jobs, not theirs. The big finding: 42% say AI threatens jobs generally, but only 24% say it threatens their own career.

🚨We’re working on an extremely cool innovation microsite that requires some creative web dev. DM me if interested. - Likely using React + Node/TS - Knowledge of <canvas> or Motion .dev and pixel-perfect UIs - ~6-8 weeks of work - Remote, flexible hours - Starting ASAP

Check it out!

The choice of parameters is important here; but if you don't believe Jordan's choices, the report features a tool where you can adopt his framing but plug in your own assumptions!

Jordan walks through the multiple factors that jointly determine how influential a replication might be, on these bases, and uses that to estimate the benefits relative to funding original research.

Exciting report by @jddwor (my colleague!) on the ROI of funding replications - the key idea is that replications help redirect research funding away from work that relies on findings that don't hold up under scrutiny.

This is a TOP paper by my great @LBS colleagues and friends (Paolo and @josebammartinez) and their co-authors; hugely relevant for Europe, the UK, and the US. The very best of #economics #research

🚨 We're hiring! Join @IFP's high-skilled immigration team to rethink how the U.S. recruits global talent. Fellow & Senior Fellow roles open — $3K referral bonus if we hire your recommendation. Apply by November 23rd: https://t.co/J6aVq6cEaR