Lukas Lundström
@lukstroem
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Energy systems. Head of Markets and Intelligence at @Quantified_C
Nordics
Joined January 2016
The North sea countries have majority of the installed wind power capacity. However, Europe is larger than that and Northern Nordics and parts of Spain have had plenty of wind. See more detailed analysis here https://t.co/bo12VZbJve
🚨Wind speeds in🇪🇺Europe are at the lowest in the last 90 years, right when WWII started 💨The phenomenon, which could have something to do with the implications of the climate change on weather patterns, is raising energy costs all over Europe and risks for the wind sector
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More figures on capture rates and revenues here
linkedin.com
First figure shows the annual capture rates for wind in the spot market of 2024 for different locations. North Sweden and west coast Finland with their high wind park concentration do stick out with...
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Share of wind generation produced at day-ahead prices below 1 €/MWh has been up to 25% in 2024 in some location in west coast Finland and mid Sweden. Quite a drastic change from 2021. Norway sticks out from its neighbors, and continues to do so also in our mid-term forecasts.
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@energybants @ENEC_UAE Thanks for sharing @energybants! Paper here: https://t.co/T9e99P61Uc Podcast here:
open.spotify.com
Podcasts - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies · Episode
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Our latest forecast for Sweden & Finland show similar growth as Michael's forecast for US. For comparison, Ireland had a share of 21% in 2023.
So you think the big AI players are going to spend $2 trillion on data centres by 2030, like Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman says? Not going to happen. https://t.co/s5ZFvCwdim
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Norwegians inefficient heating (resistive rather than heat pumps), large EV adoption, large exposure to hourly pricing and large congestion fee income gives some background for the recent move to offer households a state backed fixed price at 34 €/MWh
Estimated electric heating demand in Europe. France at 29 watt per celsius degree and person, almost 5 times more than in Germany. Central and western Europe would go from 301 to 845 TWh/yr (including hot water) if all achieved same level of electrification as France
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Intressant https://t.co/2B1iHoQJcH. Med 1 elområde så lär ju stamnätstarifferna behöva öka med minst motsvarande summa som flaskhalsintäckterna för att finansiera nätförstärkning och omdirigering. "Minst" pga troligen ännu större snedvridning av lokalisering av kraft än nu.
tn.se
Till skillnad mot vad många tror hade Sverige aldrig behövt införa elområden. Och när de väl var införda hade de inte behövt resultera i de extrema prisskillnader vi sett de senaste åren, menar flera...
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Wind power and electric boiler boom in Finland, will be interesting to see actual market impact on e.g. capture rates. Different purposes and operations, but an electric battery with 2h of storage costs about 10 times more than an electric boiler & 10h hour of thermal storage.
Tämä vuosi tulee olemaan huikea kaukolämmön sähkökattiloille - niiden kapasiteetti tulee tuplaantumaan. Kehitys jatkuu lähivuosina hyvänä, vaikka tuleekin hidastumaan. Miksi tämä on niin hieno asia? 1/8 #sähkö
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We are recruiting for a Power Market Analyst position. Read more at
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Something wind has been doing for while by increasing their rotor size relative to the generator rating (rotor-to-rating ratio). Happening now in solar where the DC/AC ratios keeps on increasing.
Curtailment is good. (in the right proportion) It is unreasonable to expect any power plant to be able to sell 100% of the electricity that it possibly could have produced, especially at high penetrations. No amount of storage or flexible demand is going to eliminate
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How come France and Nordics have so much steeper trend lines on this? France and Nordics are net exporter and the difference would be even larger with share of generation on x-axis. Wind in figure includes both onshore and offshore.
Long-term trends in German capture rates for wind and solar energy So far, this year has been a good one for wind. And a devastating one for solar. 64%! A big contributor to the fast drop is solar power that keeps generating despite steeply negative prices. What a waste.
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Here the average production curves. The east/west vertical layout has a 45% smaller yearly yield, but produces at more valuable hours (and requires less inverter and grid connection capacity)
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Here for south Sweden, where the both layouts still performed equally a few years ago.
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Monthly capture rate for yield optimized vs vertical PV-parks. Revenue per installed panel capacity still larger for the yield optimized park but the vertical park doesn't need to be much cheaper for it to be worthwhile.
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Finnish district heating is electrifying so fast now, 200 MW of electric boilers and 1000 MWh thermal storage announced to be commissioned by 2026/27 in Helsinki
hs.fi
Sähkökattiloita ja niihin kuuluvaa lämpövarastoa aletaan rakentaa keväällä 2025.
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Europe currently using about 33 TWh (or 1%) of its electricity for cooling. If all Europeans where to cool like the Makedonias (55 watt/°C,capita), the electricity for cooling would be about 150 TWh/yr (or about 450 TWh/yr in thermal load). Based on regression analysis.
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Regression analysis suggests that electricity use for heating is about same level as three years ago
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PV changing when Sweden & Norway are exporting southwards. About 5 GW difference between day and nighttime in 2024
Fierce competition to export solar today in the afternoon (below for 2 PM). Record for Belgium in 2024: -140 €/MWh.
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Distribution of hourly spot prices for selected zones. Volatile prices the new normal it seems. Data until June 2024, and capped between -100 and 1000 €/MWh
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